Rays: Boras on Pena
“I think they got more than a $10-million benefit this year by getting a player who had probably a $15-million season for about $1.2-million,”
“And I’m sure their fans are waiting to see that, too, knowing also that Tampa Bay is one of the most successful economic franchises in the sense that their payroll is so low (about $25-million) and they’re generating probably $140-million worth of gross revenues. When you count revenue sharing, the national TV package and licensing you’re almost talking about $80-million before they even sell a ticket.”
Full article on my favorite Rays Blog: DRays Bay
Scott Boras shares his opinion on what Carlos Pena’s breakthrough season should be worth to the Rays. To me it looks like Pena has been roughly a $15mm player this year, of course what is really important is what will he be worth next year? Since he isn’t a free agent, market rates need not apply. One way I do a quick projection on a player using EQA is to find a weighted average:
So the real question is what is a .298 EQA 1b worth in arbitration with 4+ years of service time? Well in coming into the season ‘07 Teixeira was in the same boat, about a 300 eqa projection, and 4+ years of service time, with Scott Boras his agent. Teix was paid about $9m this year, though he signed the deal before the ‘06 season, so you have to figure two years of salary inflation which at 10% a year gets you to about $11mm. So Boras seems pretty reasonable in his estimates.
Now before anyone quibbles with Scott’s estimate of $140mm in gross revenues for the Devil Rays, let me say it jives with Forbes preseason estimate.
I have my keys back so look for more in this space.
Mister High Standards
Posted: September 19, 2007 at 11:17 AM |
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I guess you would more conviction on Teix's projection comming into 07 than Pena's going into 08, the error bars might be smaller, but the average projection should be pretty close, IMHO. Then again arbitration awards aren't built off projections, but the past.
never knew you lost them
What's the definition of "time in September callups"? I remember that September callups don't affect status for arbitration and free agency, but some people get credit for September since players can have up to 170 (or 180, I forget) days in a year. Who gets credit for September and who doesn't?
Keith, if you're around... any insight you'd like to share?
But - that just goes to show how much 1)being an NL-only roto leaguer and NL fan, and 2)the obscurity of playing for the D-Rays, means.
I'm not smart enough to say Pena's season is a 15 mil season, but it's definitely in the ballpark.
That's gotta be the quietest 157 OPS+ season I can remember in quite some time. Just using the quick and dirty OPS+ yardstick, he's ahead of Howard, Pujols, and Fielder - was he the best AL 1B this season?
Of course, Pena's already been paid for this season, so as others have said -- the question isn't what he was worth this year, but what he's worth next year and thereafter.
And he's right, with no other information, that is our best guess. But sometimes there is a change in ability that is real (Luis Gonzalez 1st year in Arizona), sometimes it is mostly a fluke (Adrian Beltre).
Sometimes people underestimate how much simple random fluctuation can account for. We don't know if Pena is a real 280/390/580 hitter, a 260/360/520 guy getting a little lucky, or the same ol' 235/320/450 guy getting extremely lucky.
I have a pretty good comparison to Pena in my APBA league. In this case, I know for a fact that his ability level is 270/305/449. As a RHB, he starts the year in a platoon, but good play and injuries to others earns him everyday playing time. With a little over 400 at bats now, he never stopped hitting and is at 320/355/581. In this case, we know his improvement is 100% random. With Pena, we don't, but it is possible that its just a big ol fluke.
I love fluke seasons like that when I play DMB. I'm about 2/3 through a 2006 season where Ricky Ledee has an OPS around .850 and Shawn Estes's ERA is under 3.
Ha. Some anomalies for my league this year:
Billy Traber has 14 wins and an ERA around 4.00
Travis Lee hit 25 HR and 100 RBI
Tony Batista hit 30 HR
And Carlos Pena amazingly has 30 home runs
Yankee fans knew. How could we not, with Minky and Cairo and Phillips manning first for most of the season while the guy the Yanks cut last year has been one of the best hitters in the league.
We know him quite well. Kinda hard to not notice the guy putting up the best offensive season in franchise history.
Granted, he may not have been (and probably wasn't) a .235/.320/.450 guy in the first place. :)
So does any AL or mixed roto player. He and Carmona will top the AL "biggest profit" lists this year.
(checks B-Ref)OK, Fernandez and Thomas both debuted on August 2, 1990, so I'm remembering incorrectly there.
... and some of us wanted the Sox to find a way to keep him on the roster but it just wasn't to be.
I always thought he was better than he showed the last few years but I can't see him turning in back to back .600+ SLG seasons. That said, the DRays do have the benefit of just paying him for the one year and still coming out OK. If he's for real try to turn him into a living, breathing pitcher with a track record of success.
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