By the way, if I'm calling you a pomous windbag you must not only be really, really pompus but really full of hot air.

Hey, can we settle on a spelling for "pompous" before too many more posts :-D

I am just so fired up right now BDM, I can't think how to spell s-p-e-l-l. Never mind anything else. These guys, have the nerve to charge for services then insult their subscriberes. Who the #### do they think they are? They are from usenet for gosh sakes, not that anything is wrong with usenet but show some modesty.

It's even worse in that PECOTA is Nate Silver's baby, not Will Carroll's. It's bad enough to be incredibly arrogant and obnoxious with one of your accomplishments, but it's really bad to doing it with something you had no part in. By the way:

Open Letter
by Howard Lincoln

Dear PECOTA,

We’re sorry that we were right. Better luck battling through next year.

Your pals,

The Seattle Mariners

P.S. Coverboy Josh Phelps says hi.

After BPro confidently predicted that the 2005 White Sox would finish below .500 and spent the entire 2005 season calling the White Sox a "mirage", they got a lot of taunting email from White Sox fans. Joe Sheehan finally put up a churlish acknowledgment that they were wrong.

I suppose this is BPro's version of payback. It would have a lot more force if (1) more of the things that they predicted (like a total collapse of the starting rotation) had actually happened and (2) they hadn't been wrong, like, every other year since Ken Williams took over.

I can't see for sure, because I'm not a BPro subscriber, but I'm sure that PECOTA accurately predicted Colorado's 90 pythag wins, and St. Louis's 71 pythag wins as well.

JRE - Pecota's standings were IMHO very good this year. They did a great job of predicting, IMHO. The issue isn't the accuracy of Pecota, it's big a ####### #########.

#6

Sheehan believes that the White Sox and the Angels are 2 of the 3 teams that have no idea on how to construct and offense.

I’m completely enraged

There's a shock.

Seriously, though, this isn't a particularly classy move on Carroll's part, but I can completely understand.

Yes, one prediction doesn't say much about PECOTA's accuracy (despite what we'll see in next year's BP2008), but at the same time one bad prediction doesn't say much either. Nevertheless, coming into this season, there were no shortage of stories in the Chicago papers about BPro's prediction, and not only the media but the team held both PECOTA and BPro to tremendous ridicule, just for that prediction alone.

I do understand Carroll's desire to make the Chicago media eat some crow -- they deserve it -- but it would have been better for it to come in the form of a mea culpa from the Tribune or Sun-Times (perhaps at BPro's behind the scenes urging), rather than this.

Mike, I don't know what you are talking about. I'm very level headed and reserved.

It's even worse in that PECOTA is Nate Silver's baby, not Will Carroll's.

Not to mention that Silver said before the season that he disagreed with PECOTA's projection for the White Sox.

what does Phil Nevin have to do with this?

And what does Phil Nevin have to do with anything, anyhow?

Mike, I don't know what you are talking about. I'm very level headed and reserved.

Then you wake up.

I'm very level headed and reserved.

Yes, that's what Alejandra said to me after the game in St Louis: "Papi, that man may have been foul-mouthed, but he was very level-headed and reserved."

I thought it was funny. I can see how people can think it's classless. And like DeJesus Freak said, they got ripped by the Chicago press for their prediction, so the desire to fire back is understandable.

I do understand Carroll's desire to make the Chicago media eat some crow -- they deserve it -- but it would have been better for it to come in the form of a mea culpa from the Tribune or Sun-Times (perhaps at BPro's behind the scenes urging), rather than this.


Not to defend Carroll, but that would have never happened.

I thought it was funny. I can see how people can think it's classless. And like DeJesus Freak said, they got ripped by the Chicago press for their prediction, so the desire to fire back is understandable.

True, but again, it's Nate's baby. I'd be damn pissed if some BTF started using ZiPS to wage their own private little flame war.

I’m seriously considering not renewing.

Haven't you been saying that for years?

If not, I apologize.

WRT the comment being "unprofessional"
If you mean the standards that are SUPPOSED to be maintained by journalists? Yes uit was unprofessional.
If you mean the business standards that are generally maintained by those who work in statistical analysis (as a whole field, not just sports analysis) Yes it was unprofessional.

If you mean the standards that are actually maintained by sports journalists commentators and analysts, sadly no it was not especially unprofessional.

#16

The problem with firing back is that someone would then bring up PECOTA's projections for Buehrle, Vazquez and Garland, among others.

Not to defend Carroll, but that would have never happened.

True, to a large extent. Still, Carroll does have a few sympathetic ears -- among others, he's a weekly guest of David Kaplan's on WGN Radio. If he wanted to demonstrate a bit more class, he could've mentioned something to Kaplan and see if that sends any reminders to the rest of the local media. Probably not, but it's certainly better than this.

Of course, perhaps the best course would've been to keep his trap shut altogether and take the high road. At least he's only doing this in an Unfiltered blog, which many folks won't read about.

From Nate Silver's chat yesterday:

Sky (The Roc, NY): When can we expect the Told You So article about the White Sox? I can't wait.

Nate Silver: We've already gotten enough press about that prediction both good and bad -- I don't know that I'm going to do a whole heck of a lot more writing about the 2007 White Sox. But yeah, it was kind of funny that they finished *exactly* at 72-90.

I'd be damn pissed if some BTF started using ZiPS to wage their own private little flame war.

really? Well there goes that plan....

If you mean the standards that are actually maintained by sports journalists commentators and analysts, sadly no it was not especially unprofessional.

We certainly don't have to search too many BTF threads to find "unprofessional" behavior by other media members or blog writers (including BTF authors).

Nate Silver: We've already gotten enough press about that prediction both good and bad -- I don't know that I'm going to do a whole heck of a lot more writing about the 2007 White Sox. But yeah, it was kind of funny that they finished *exactly* at 72-90.

Wouldn't be the first time the left hand didn't know what the right hand was doing.

That a supposedly serious publication thinks it is ok to inflict a "x says hi" construction on its readers is a clear sign that civilization as we know it is ending.

I can see how people can think it's classless. And like DeJesus Freak said, they got ripped by the Chicago press for their prediction, so the desire to fire back is understandable.

Sure, but there are better (and more informative) ways to do it. The blog that Carroll linked was more informative than Carroll's bit of snark.

I remember looking at the PECOTA predictions before the season started and seeing why it would come to the conclusion it did w/r/t this team. Ken Williams was really crossing his fingers and hoping about a number of things. He was hoping that Joe Crede would stay healthy and productive, that none of the heart-of-the-order hitters would regress too badly, that Buehrle's and Contreras's 2006 seasons were aberrations, that a few of the live but erratic arms he picked up from the bullpen would come through, etc., etc. It was too much to hope for, and in the event, the only guys that performed better than expected were Thome and Buehrle.

To mention that would have gotten his point across just as well, without being ###########.

If my right hand was Will Carroll, I'd definitely chop it off to spite my arm and still think kindly of the transaction in hindsight.

I still don't get what Phil Nevin has to do with this.

The problem with firing back is that someone would then bring up PECOTA's projections for Buehrle, Vazquez and Garland, among others.

Absolutley. Forget about individual players, if you're going to taunt like that, then the rest of your team predictions better be pretty accurate, otherwise you just look petty.

True, to a large extent. Still, Carroll does have a few sympathetic ears -- among others, he's a weekly guest of David Kaplan's on WGN Radio. If he wanted to demonstrate a bit more class, he could've mentioned something to Kaplan and see if that sends any reminders to the rest of the local media. Probably not, but it's certainly better than this.


Oh, I agree that there's plenty of better ways to go about it. I'm not saying it wasn't classless (I probably should have said as much in my first post), just that my initial reaction was "that's hilarious."

Looking at SG's Diamond Mind Projection blowout, it hardly looks like "White Sox Not Good" was some groundbreaking projection:

CHONE: 76 wins
DMB: 77 wins
PECOTA (as simmed): 74 wins
ZiPS: 77 wins

Nevin bounced to the Cubs , right city wrong team?

Nevin bounced to the Cubs , right city wrong team?

Wrong year, too. Nevin didn't play in the majors in 2007.

The Nevin thing is Carroll crowing about a lucky prediction he made several years ago. One of his red light-green light things had Nevin designated as red the day before he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield.

The Nevin thing is Carroll crowing about a lucky prediction he made several years ago. One of his red light-green light things had Nevin designated as red the day before he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield.

Seriously? That's even lamer than the PECOTA prediction.

Unless he's making a subtle "the sun shines on a dog's ass once in a while" joke.

My recollection is that when Ken Williams was asked about the Pecota W Sox projection at trhe beginning of the season, he dismissed it as bullsh8t. So, due to that, I have no problem with Carroll (or Silver) gloating a bit.

Damn, I wasted all my Carroll bashing in the Dugout when there was an actual thread to bash him in. I feel like I missed out.

35 - well ####, what's the team's GM supposed to say? Of course he's going to say it's ########; he wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't.

What about Frank Tanana?

Haven't you been saying that for years?

I believe I said it once, and then didn't rennew next time for 6 months. The problem is most of the contributors to BP are really great. Nate, and Jaffe, and Dan Fox and Clay and Kevin J... mother f'er he makes me so mad.

And like DeJesus Freak said, they got ripped by the Chicago press for their prediction, so the desire to fire back is understandable.

That is the nature of the prediction business. If you don't want people challanging them, then stop making predictions. It's true of baseball, it's true of the markets, and its true of the weather.

We certainly don't have to search too many BTF threads to find "unprofessional" behavior by other media members or blog writers (including BTF authors).

Last I checked no BTF readers are paying to read. That is the difference, when you buying a product you should be entitled to being treated with respect. If I got a hooker (never happanend), she should damn well pretend to enjoy it. The subscribers are not paying Will Carroll to gloat. They are paying him to continue to pretend to be a doctor.

####, I want go through his medical reports and see exactly how many he was wrong about. Mother F'er I am angry about this, and I don't know why. I'm convinced it's becauseI haven't had a drink in a month. How #### to sober people stay sain?

When MHS and I are of one mind on a subject, you can be sure we've reached the right conclusion.

Somewhere Rachael Reid is muttering to herself, "You guys are surprised by this?"

So much for analysis, huh? Besides the Twins winning the division, where did they have Cleveland finishing?

That is the nature of the prediction business. If you don't want people challanging them, then stop making predictions. It's true of baseball, it's true of the markets, and its true of the weather.

No it isn't. How often do you see writers write entire columns about other writers predictions?

Doc:

With respect to the stock market and commodities exchange quite regularly. Typically as a way of educating the reader as to the "value" of relying on advice from experts.

Will Carroll is not a reason to subscribe to BPro. You do not read Will Carroll. You endure him when necessary and avoid when possible. It's a waste of energy and energy is a valuable resource.

No it isn't. How often do you see writers write entire columns about other writers predictions?

How often do you see other writers tout their predictions as: "deadly accurate" or "groundbreaking". When your chief marketing device is to tout your projection system, which is a good system then you should expect people to voice their objections as loudly as you voice you qualifications.

This could have been handled in a very funny way. How about "Hey Kenny, you got us in 05 and 06, but now we're almost even!" Or some such joke. It acknowledges that they're right while also including some much-deserved modesty. Or if they were so angry about those who ripped on their predictions, then direct your venom to them directly.

With respect to the stock market and commodities exchange quite regularly. Typically as a way of educating the reader as to the "value" of relying on advice from experts.

I wasn't talking about stock markets or the weather. Only pre-season predictions.

How often do you see other writers tout their predictions as: "deadly accurate" or "groundbreaking".

More often than you think, just look at fantasy football.

The Nevin thing is Carroll crowing about a lucky prediction he made several years ago. One of his red light-green light things had Nevin designated as red the day before he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield.

Is that this article? He's bragging about something small that happened before the war in Iraq started?

They are from usenet for gosh sakes, not that anything is wrong with usenet but show some modesty.

This is funny. Thanks for the laugh.

In that article, Carroll wrote that he expected Nevin to have a season-ending injury. Nevin came back in July.

Stone cold lead pipe LOCKS! Football predictions are awesome. Radio guys love them because they get to ramble on for 20 minutes explaining why team X's defense is really going to shut down the run and they should be able to cover the 7 points and that Team Y is used to playing in a dome, so their passing game will fall apart outdoors. AT the end of the day, they all end up around .500.

Mike and Maddog probably spend an hour on college and Pro Football each Friday and they keep a running tally of who's right the most. Maddog screams about momentum and juice while Francesa drones on about which coach has devised the best plan. By year's end, one of them is 9-7 and the other is 6-10.

We certainly don't have to search too many BTF threads to find "unprofessional" behavior by other media members or blog writers (including BTF authors).

--Last I checked no BTF readers are paying to read.

You missed my point, MHS, which was that nearly every day, threads are posted of articles by the so-called "professionals" that contain uncivil languange and ill-advised attacks. See, e.g., Mariotti.

IOW, Carroll wasn't "professiona" by your definition, but he's certainly not alone in this kind of thing.

Will Carroll:Phil Nevin :: Peter Gammons:Mike Crudale?


Oh and...

Dear Will Carroll,

Sorry I didn't get reinstated.

P. Rose

Dear Will Carroll,

That was a douchey bit of writing.

PS: Your hairline says hi.

Dammit, I saw the header of this post and was all fired up to defend John Sterling once again.

P.S. Phil Nevin says hi.

I could at least understand where Carroll was coming from if this was his FU to the Chicago media, as some have suggested. But throwing this in is meaningless. It has nothing to do with (1) BP's 2007 pre-season predictions, (2) the White Sox, or (3) PECOTA. The Nevin throw-in "cheapens" Carroll's post, if that's possible.

That a supposedly serious publication thinks it is ok to inflict a "x says hi" construction on its readers is a clear sign that civilization as we know it is ending.

Nice. Maybe this is a problem with "Unfiltered." As a medium, it's prone to the annoying and snarky side of the blogosphere, which the BP articles avoid.

Didn't Nate Silver make PECOTA? Shouldn't he be claiming the credit for it, and not Will Carroll?

Congrats BPro. You predicted the White Sox to stink for 3 years, and in that time they won the World Series, and were over .500 another season. But, you got it right this year! Way to go!

** For those of you that didn’t note the tongue-in-cheek tone here (including my shoutout to the luckiest prediction ever at BP), you’re missing the point. My idea was that PECOTA, a computer program that knows nothing of intangibles or expectations, got one right. This isn’t about the White Sox alone; about fifteen other GM’s missed their expectations. The question is why. Was it injuries, like the A’s or Marlins? Was it team chemistry, like the Dodgers? Was it one game somewhere along the line, like the Brewers or Mets?

######## it's not -- don't backtrack now.

Dear Will Carroll,

Sorry I didn't get reinstated.

P. Rose

Hilarious -- that gave me a laugh. I hope one way or another he sees that.

At the beginning of the year, PECOTA gave the Dbacks an 88-74 record, good for best in the NL. In a review article, Silver thought that was a reasonable projection. Joe Sheehan, in particular, was boasting in every April article that he was a proud card-carrying member of the Dbacks bandwagoners club.

Then the Dbacks didn't hit, and mid-summer the Bpro playoff odds simulator were given about 97% chance of missing the playoffs altogether, never mind having the best record in the NL. Joe Sheehan jumped off that bandwagon so fast, he got a$$-burn as he was sliding down the splintery board he's been polishing in the spring.

And the moment his butt healed, he jumped onto the Cubs bandwagon, just to spite Harveys. It's just lucky for him that Ned Yost got Yost infection in his brain so that Sheehan could finally say "told you so" to a few desperate Brewers fans. Otherwise I'm quite sure he'd be riding shotgun on the Rockies coach right about now.

Uh, that should say they "playoff odds simulator had given the Dbacks about 97% chance of missing the playoffs"...

Just for the record, I think Pecota is a very good projection system. Top of the food chain. I'm not sure how accurate anything but the mean player projections are but they are accurate. They in general do VERY good work over there, and I visit the site daily for the stats pages including pecota pages as well as to at least skim most of the articles.

In retro spect I probably overreacted, and I'm going to pull this from the "feature section" because it doesn't really add any value. Not that I ever do, but at least usually I at least try.

Hilarious -- that gave me a laugh. I hope one way or another he sees that.

While MHS is coming clean - I should too... I didn't see his Rose reference up top. He should get joke points.

If I got a hooker (never happanend),

Heh.

she should damn well pretend to enjoy it.

Double heh.

The subscribers are not paying Will Carroll to gloat. They are paying him to continue to pretend to be a doctor.

Triple heh! Paying him to continue to be a doctor! God bless America!

Dammit, I saw the header of this post and was all fired up to defend John Sterling once again.

I'm surprised that no one's used the header as an excuse to take a cheap shot at Rauseo yet. You're slipping, Matt. Quit taking those nice pills. Go out and get drunk.



Mother F'er I am angry about this, and I don't know why. I'm convinced it's becauseI haven't had a drink in a month. How #### to sober people stay sain?

Silly fool. We don't stay sain.

I could at least understand where Carroll was coming from if this was his FU to the Chicago media, as some have suggested. But throwing this in is meaningless. It has nothing to do with (1) BP's 2007 pre-season predictions, (2) the White Sox, or (3) PECOTA. The Nevin throw-in "cheapens" Carroll's post, if that's possible.

Well, I never meant to imply that Carroll's post wasn't cheap -- to the contrary, it was taking a fairly low road. It wasn't the most tasteful thing he could've done, by any means.

I'm just saying I understand some of the motivation behind it.

How #### to sober people stay sain?

- We spawn. Failing that we pray for a reign. Over something.

Will Carroll is the single reason I stopped subscribing to BP. And now there is more than enough free info out there that I don't miss it at all and I never have weak moments where I almost give them my money.

For those of you that didn’t note the tongue-in-cheek tone here

Someone should tell Will that a reader has difficulty noticing tongue-in-cheek when the author has his head up his ass.

I went ahead and canceled my month-by-month subscription; couldn't stomach underwriting, in whatever minimal amount, Carroll's career. As I wrote in my email to them upon my cancellation, I'll re-subscribe happily whenever Will Carroll is not writing for them: Carroll emailed me back that he will "happily and personally refund the remainder" of my subscription. So I'm looking forward to a two dollar check.

Anyway, I really like reading Goldstein, Kahrl, Silver, but not enough to balance out my repulsion at Carroll and (occasionally) Sheehan. It's kind of like how I got into reading USS Mariner just about everyday while Zumsteg was on leave, but now I can hardly bring myself to clicking on the page, even though I really enjoy reading Cameron's writing. Maybe there should be a Best Damn Baseball Snark (everything you think you know about baseball is sad and pathetic) website where people all the above writers could be quarantined?

The fact that a bunch of you are losing yr collective sh!t over a nonchalant 20-word hit-and-run blog post & going so far as to cancel your subscriptions based on a FREE section of their website that is easy to avoid (along w/ the writer/s in question) seems a bit over-the-top.

I went ahead and canceled my month-by-month subscription; couldn't stomach underwriting, in whatever minimal amount, Carroll's career. As I wrote in my email to them upon my cancellation, I'll re-subscribe happily whenever Will Carroll is not writing for them: Carroll emailed me back that he will "happily and personally refund the remainder" of my subscription. So I'm looking forward to a two dollar check.

He really did that? Wow. In a "take your two dollars and go to hell" way, or in a "I'm sorry you're not satisfied and here is your two bucks" way?

If my right hand was Will Carroll, I'd definitely chop it off to spite my arm and still think kindly of the transaction in hindsight.

Will Carroll is not a reason to subscribe to BPro. You do not read Will Carroll. You endure him when necessary and avoid when possible.

Dear Will Carroll,

That was a douchey bit of writing.

PS: Your hairline says hi.

Will Carroll is the single reason I stopped subscribing to BP.

I went ahead and canceled my month-by-month subscription; couldn't stomach underwriting, in whatever minimal amount, Carroll's career.

So much hate... Is it worth raising your blood pressure over?

The subscribers are not paying Will Carroll to gloat. They are paying him to continue to pretend to be a doctor.

I like that one actually...

... and Will Carroll's response:

As for those of you that wrote in with insults, Ozzie’s more creative. And louder.

Sox fans already have to put up with Jay Mariotti...why should Will Carroll pile on?

I would normally agree with you, but this is one case where IMO the gloating is warranted. Do you not remember how much #### BPro took for their ChiSox prediction?

When the MS media drags you through the mud over a prediction that ended up being correct...that's one time where you're allowed to gloat a bit IMO.

JP:

Well, I was trying to coach Matthew on how to spare himself any additional aggravation.

He really did that?

Thats nothing. You should have seen what he wrote to me.

FWIW, Carroll has posted another "unfiltered" one, this time a letter in which he's called out on a bad projection AND called a "pompous windbag".

Perusing Unfiltered.....

BPro has a guy in Boston covering that series? So much for the outsider tag.