Baseball is a game rich in quotes and richer in quotable people from Babe Ruth to Rogers Hornsby to George Brett. Heck let me share some of one of my favorites* from each of them just so my first entry isn’t quote less:

“I have only one superstition. I make sure I touch all the bases when I hit a homerun.” -BR

“Guys who can field you can shake out of any old tree. Find me guys who can hit.” - RH

“If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing is like kissing your grandmother with all her teeth out.” - GB

While those certainly are some of the best quotes in baseball’s long history they are not going to be the types of quotes you’ll find here, at least normally. Instead look for the contemporary opinion on issues as they were unfolding or on some particular anecdote that I stumbled on, or even a short passage from whatever book I happen to be reading that strikes me as insightful. Occasionally you’ll even see some Stengel-ese or Yogi-isms.

I hope you enjoy my little corner of Baseball Think Factory, if you have any ideas quotes or feedback please drop me a line.

* quotes from Total Baseball VI – Appendix I - Baseball Quotations by Sean Lahman page 2503.

Open Letter
by Will Carroll

Dear White Sox,

We’re sorry that we were right.  Better luck battling through next year.

Your pal,

PECOTA

P.S. Phil Nevin says hi.

I’m completely enraged due to this complete and utter insult to the intelligence of anyone who happened to question the accuracy of Pecota on specific prediction.  Can PWB give an open letter to Twins fans for Pecota’s whiff on that projection? 

I sent this to BP’s complaint department:
Subject: Unprofessional Windbag
This is the most unprofessional thing I have ever seen.  Ironic that it comes from a guy whose big claim to fame is being wrong about the Rose story on national TV.  I’m not even a WhiteSox fan and find it ridiculously pompous and short sited. 

I’m seriously considering not renewing. 

Dustin
Manny
Papi
Lowell
Drew
Youk or Tek
Tek or Chief
Chief or Hinske I assume it will be Crisp
Lugo

It seems like a “sabrmetric lineup”, at least as much as a lineup can be sabrmetric.  My own gut tells me that Lowell should be hitting 3rd, as his profile is a better fit (high ISO, low onbase) is a better fit for the slot relative to David, while Papi’s plus OBP is better off in the forth slot.  Though again with the drop off between 4 and 5 being so steep it’s not all that clear.

Luckily for us the great baseballmusings.com has a great lineup analysis tool on line which can be found here: Batting order

The only inputs you need for the tool is a player’s On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage.  I estimated those statistics for the players in question, Using a method I used previously on the BBQB.  Below are the resulting estimates:

When you input those variables into the Batting Order Tool you find out that lineup scores 5.59 runs per game. The lineup the sox most commonly used according to Baseball Reference would score 5.56 runs per game. So this lineup is an improvement. 

Now what if we play around with some other slots, keeping the baselineup as: Dusty, Manny, Papi, Lowell, Drew, Youk, Tek, Coco, Lugo.

My initial gut was that Lowell and Papi should be flip flopped.  If you make that change that lineup scores 5.63 runs per game. Which is a pretty meaningful change.  Dusty, Manny, Lowell, Papi, Drew, Youk, Tek, Coco, Lugo.

A lot of people were up in arms about Lugo at the to of the lineup latter on in the season.  Well what does flipping Dusty and Lugo do?  that lineup scores 5.59 runs per game.  When you go out to 3 decimals the difference works out to .006 runs per game.  Lugo, Manny, Papi, Lowell, Drew, Youk, Tek, Coco, Dusty.

A trick I have been using in DMB for years, when playing with in a DH league is to hit my worst hitter 8th, trying to creating that second leadoff man.  Well if you flip Crisp and Lugo you get a very large relative impac as that lineup scores 5.64 runs per game. Dusty, Manny, Papi, Lowell, Drew, Youk, Tek, Lugo, Coco.

So in other words, it makes a bigger difference to get your worst hitter away from the top of the lineup for when it turns over, than getting your worst hitter the most at bats on the team.  Which shocks the heck out of me.

Just for fun here are the best and worst lineup combinations.  I don’t think any of them are all that realistic.  Just switching Lugo and Crisp gets you most of the way to the optimal lineup.

sources:
baseballmusings
baseballprospectus
baseballreference

From the 1957, Baseball Guide -

“Factors behind Milwaukee’s September foldup included the decline of pitchers Bob Buhl and Lew Burdette and Sluggers Joe Adcock and Eddie Mathews.  Buhl won only two games after labor day, and Burdette one….

Spahn, who almost carried the Braves in the last futile weeks, reached the 20-victory mark for the seventh time and passed the 200 victory mark for his career.”

Despite the fact that he wasn’t pitching against the Dodgers, in Ebbets he certainly did more than his share down the stretch to keep the Braves in it.  By my count from August until the end of the season he made 13 starts, and was the winning pitcher in 9 of them. 

The introduction is written by Paul Adomites, who was the editor of the publication.

“The SABR review is not particularly disciplined or formal.  There’s a lot of variety here: from heady opinion to well documented analysis, from academic style dissertations to casual appreciation.”

The mid 80’s in my opinion where the golden age of baseball books, and if you pick up this publication you might agree with me.  The Review contains 12 reviews, 4 of the books reviewed are in my opinion among the 10 best baseball books ever published.  The original Bill James Historical Abstract, Nine Innings by Dan Okrent, Dollar Sign on the Muscle by Kevin Kerrane, and The Arm Chair Book of Baseball edited by John Thorn.  If you don’t own all 4 of these, and your frequent this website your doing yourself a disservice. 

Besides book reviews the publication also includes a number of features from a Tour of Yankee Literature by Mark Gallagher, to the Negro League revisited by Jules Tygiel.  This entry is going to focus on a feature called “Phone Survey: What baseball books do you return to most often.”

Roger Angell: “The Glory of Their Times by Lawrence Ritter, because it opened up a whole era for so many of us.  It was an essential sort of work but done with such modesty and elegance.  Ritter did a tremendous amount of work researching all of those players, he just presented them to us with such honesty and directness.  Its publication was an outstanding event.

Bill James: “It might be Nice Guys Finnish Last with Leo Duroucher and Ed Linn. I like that book a lot.  The use of language is extraordinarily good… I find the record of 40 years of baseball controversies and people engrossing.  I have a lot of favorite books but that’s one I like to mention because it doesn’t get mentioned often.”

Leonard Koppett: “I liked Bouton’s second book (Ball Five) much better than the first, by the second book he had much more understanding in it, instead of being a wise guy.”

Dan Okrent: “The three volumes of the Fireside set.  I go back to them constantly, for the variety and the surprise.  I don’t think necessarily any one of the three volumes has the best stuff written in their particular era, but the bizarre range that Einstein brought to the books really makes them special.”

Larry Ritter: “On reflection my favorite is Veeck as in Wreck. The runner up My Baseball Diary by James Ferrell. And number 3 is Donald Honig’s Baseball America.”

There are also responses by such baseball luminaries as Joe Garragiola, Marty Appel, Tony Kubek, Pete Palmer, and Allan Roth.

The premise of the book is simple and somewhat brilliant, it’s a survey of players, coaches and managers both living and active.  They mailed over 5,000 surveys, and received replied from 645 people.  The surveys asked all types of questions, all time all star teams, best curveball (some one tell Lederer that Bert was ranked third behind Koufax and Bridges), best throwing arm on a position player, best defensive team, best hit and run guy, best clutch hitter ect…

Anyway it really is a fascinating book, I figure I’ll dip into it now and then, because one it has some really interesting stuff in it, but also because well its pretty tough to find (Amazon has only 1 used copy). 

One of the sections in the book is Players’ Choice The Greatest Players of All Time some interesting names from the list: Ken Boyer, Dave Concepcion, Lefty Gomez, Travis, Jackosn, George Kell, Marty Marion, Red Rolfe, and Bobby Richardson.

What else do we have how about Sandy Koufax as the best money pitcher of all time, followed by Bob Gibson.  Curiously Dr. K polled ahead of Tom Terrific. 

The ’27 Yankees as the greatest team of all time… the ’61 Yankees a distant 2nd.  The Weaver Orioles didn’t make the top 20. 

Stengel and Joe McCarthy the top two skippers.

Dick Groat the greatest hit and run man of all time.

Ted Williams the greatest clutch hitter of all time, with nearly double the votes of second place finisher Yogi Bera.  Count the Ringz.

Cesar Cedeno and Dick Allen the two most popular picks for players who never lived up to their potential. 

Bill Klem the polled as the best ump ever. 

Peter Rose did more to inspire his team than anyone else.  More than 4 times as many votes as second place Joe D.  I wonder if Joe D was as willing to put his money where his mouth was.

80% of respondents thought someone was a better shortstop than Honus Wagner.  Arky Vaughn wasn’t a top 20 vote getter, Rogers got more votes as the greatest SS of all time than Vaughn. 

Joe D was a better outfielder than: Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Tris Speaker AND BABE RUTH!

Charlie Gehringer was the greatest second baseman ever.  Maz finished higher than Joe Morgan. 

The best answer? When asked which sports writer knew the most about baseball, the third place finisher was a guy by the name of NONE OF THEM, who picked up 8.5% of the vote… and no it wasn’t multiple choice. Red Smith and Dick Young must be on the ball.

I admit I picked out some things that struck me as funny, but in all honesty it really is a neat book.

Now here is where it really starts to get interesting:

With one out and a man on third and but one run needed to win the game, Willie Keeler could bring that run home oftener than any man who ever played the game in my day.  He was the most scientific batsman I ever saw.  He came nearer to being a “place” hitter in the sense of hitting more accurately than merely batting to left or to right than any of the other noted batsman.  He exemplified his own quaint saying of the secret to successful batting, “hitting’em where they ain’t.” Seldom did he give an infielder an easy play, and for that reason rarely hit into a double play, which so often in baseball kills what often looks like the winning rally.

Reading that for the first time I instantly thought of Ichiro! And his ability to hit’em where they ain’t, and to also never give an infielder an easy play.  It seems to me that the author the “Sportsman” and Joe Kelley and Tom McCarthy are making similar miscues we still see today in player evaluation.  Giving additional credit to what is visually pleasing to watch, no doubt Ichiro, or in his day Willie Keller was one of the most exciting players to watch, a speedy ball in play offense is in my eyes the most appealing to watch, that doesn’t necessarily translate to most “useful” or “greatest” or what have you.
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“If you were to create a list of advance scout stories that have stood the test of time, the list could be as short as you want and it would include Didier’s heads-up to Kirk Gibson before Game One of the 1988 World Series, when he told the decrepit slugger that Denis Eckersley tended to throw a back-door slider whenever he went to a full count on a left-handed hitter. (Didier likes to point out that if you watch a tape of the game, you can see Gibson smile as stepped out of the box when the count went to 3-2)”

“Gehrig Supplants Pipp, Shanks has Ward’s place and Benough Does the Catching.”

The headlines from June 3rd, 1925 New York Times, which was the first start of Lou Gehrig’s consecutive game streak.  It is actually the second game of the streak as it started the day before with an unsuccessful pinch hit appearance for Short Stop Ernie Johnson. 

“The most radical shakeup of the Yankee line-up in many years left only three regulars of last season in the batting order – Dugan, Ruth and Meusel. Gehrig made two singles and a double in his first three trips to the front”.

This was the Yankees starting lineup that day:

Pee Wee Wanninger
Joe Dugan
Earl Combs
Babe Ruth
Bob Meusel
Lou Gehrig
Howie Shanks
Benny Bengough
Urban Shocker

The most interesting part of the lineup is that the man I think of as the greatest leadoff hitter in Yankee history is a rookie, and hitting third and not leadoff.  He actually started the season batting third, as he hit in that slot in a number of exhibition games.  I don’t believe he actually moved to the leadoff spot until July 19th of his rookie season. 

October 24th 1919, Boston Globe – Writer Albert Woodlock:
“When asked if he has any trades in mind (Frazee) he replied that none were in the air, although there was not a player on the club of whom he would not dispose providing he received either his price or satisfactory exchange of players and that includes the champion home run hitter “Babe” Ruth.”

It looks like the trade talk around the hot stove started awful early in regard to the Sultan of Swat.

December 3rd, 1919, Boston Globe – No Author Cited
“Kid” McCoy, an ex pugilist, and Al St. John, a motion picture actor, today entered into an agreement by which McCoy will train Ruth for 30 days and if his report is favorable, it is said St John will finance campaign of the outfielder to obtain a match with Jack Dempsey, heavy weight champion

“If McCoy and St John think I have any future I am willing to do everything they ask.”

December 22nd 1919, Boston Globe – Sportsman

“If Pres Frazee has any idea of trading “Babe” Ruth he should take a leaf out of Frank Navins book.  The Detroit mans club has not been winning championships for years; but until “Babe” Ruth came to the front, he had in Ty Cobb the best drawing card in baseball and money could not tempt him to let Ty go to another club.”

December 28, 1919, Boston Globe – James O’Leary
“The past week there was a lot of talk about Babe Ruth’s ultimatum to the Boston American League Club, in which the greatest of home run swatters is alleged to have said that not withstanding the fact he is under contract for to the Boston club for the next 2 years at $10,000 a year, he will demand $30,000.00 for next year, and unless he gets it will retire from the game: and he wants to play for the Red Sox and will not stand for his sale or exchange to any other club.”

January 6, 1920 Boston Globe – James O’Leary
“Demon slugger of American League, Who Made 29 Home Runs :ast Season, Goes to the Yankees”

“With this money the Boston club can now go into the market and buy other players and have a stronger and better team in all respects than we would have had if Ruth had remained with us.”

January 7, 1920 Boston Globe – “The Sportsman”
“Sentiment in baseball is a thing of the past.  Holding onto players as has been done in Pittsburgh as been the case with Honus Wagner; in Detroit as regards to Ty Cobb and in Washington where Walter Johnson has been idol, are rarities.”