Count the Rings™ Looks forward to the 2007 Yankees

In typical Yankee fashion – we here at BTF and Count the Rings™ can’t develop out own talent for anything … so what do we do come preview time? We assemble a bunch of all-stars from elsewhere in the blogosphere. That’s just how we roll.

We did this last year under the premise that no team is more projected and examined than the Yankees, so why not get some completely subjective opinions on the team. If you want objective analysis, got to the old Replacement Level Yankee Weblog and look at SG’s stuff. It’s just wonderful.

As for this preview, let’s look at who’s joining me today:

First, Mike A. and Joseph P. from the new, but fabulous www.riveraveblues.com; then we have Richard Barbieri, from CTR, Replacement Level and author of the Hardball Times’ wonderful This Annotated Week in Baseball History column; the at times irascible, yet always amazing Steve Lombardi from www.waswatching.com and finally SG and Larry Mahnken from the recently redecorated Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, which can be found at www.replacementlevel.com.

So be nice to the panel, and feel free to call us fanboys, homers, haters, or whatever, just don’t call us late to first pitch. And without further ado, here’s 20 questions and about 120 answers on the Yankees.

1. A lot was made over New York’s newfound sense of thrift. Is this more a media narrative based on not Cashman not making splashy acquisitions and how much of it is a true paradigm shift?

Sean McNally: I’d like to believe it’s a shift in paradigm, but my head tells me its media rationalization for not breaking the bank on Zito or Matsuzaka.

Mike A (River Ave. Blues): The vast majority of the mainstream media are complete morons; they’re more concerned about pulling a great story than reporting actual facts. Almost everything they say should be completely ignored. Anyways, I do think the Yanks are undergoing a serious philosophical change, all thanks to Brian Cashman. When he signed his new deal promising him full control over the baseball operations, I think a lot of us were saying “let’s see how long this lasts,” but it has, am I’m sure the Boss’ fading help has something to do with it.

I wouldn’t necessarily call it thrift either; I’d just call it being more flexible and cost effective. 

Richard Barbieri: It’s a little of column A and a little of column B. Cashman (wisely) recognized the market was out of control and the Yankees’ needs not that excessive. The Yankees will still make players very rich men, but hopefully from now on it will be the right players, not the Womacks and Jaret Wrights of the world. 

Steve Lombardi (WasWatching): Didn’t the Yankees part with some coin this off-season to get Pettitte and Igawa?  I think the Yankees will continue to spend when there’s a need and there’s something out there worth the money.  Other than a couple of spots in the rotation, the Yankees team was set, or locked due to contracts, going into this off-season.  That’s why we did not see many “splashy acquisitions” – even if said players were out there, where would the Yankees play them?

SG (RLYW.net): Based on Cashman’s recent moves and sound bites, it looks like a true paradigm shift to me.  Cashman traded Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield for prospects, and made a hard-line decision about not offering Bernie Williams a contract, and has spoken frequently about his goal of making the team younger, more athletic, and more flexible.  It’ll take some time for the team to get some of the old contracts off the books, but I think they’re heading in a different direction, and I’m glad to see it.

Larry Mahnken (RLYW.net): I don’t really think any of it is a media narrative.  Cashman announced as soon as he signed his new contract that the team was going to be run on a budget, with a focus on producing talent from within – then, after that, using their enormous financial muscle to dominate all of baseball.  We’re in the first part of that plan, where the Yankees are cutting excess expenses and developing young talent.

2. Randy Johnson or Gary Sheffield. Who’s subtraction was the bigger addition?

SM: Sheffield. Johnson was s jackass, but he was a jackass who nine times out of 10 put the offense in a place where it might win. Sheffield was a malcontent with no position so vaya con Dios.

Joe (RAB): Sheffield, definitely. The only spot he would have in the lineup would be at DH, which means Giambi would have to play first most of the time. When the Yanks acquired Abreu, Sheffield was out of the 2007 plans, so getting rid of him was inevitable. Getting something in return was just gravy. 

As much as I didn’t and still don’t like Randy Johnson—and as much as I liked the trade—removing him from the rotation hurts a bit. Yeah, he was pretty bad last year, and he would have missed the first month of the season anyway, but he could have still contributed a fair share of innings. And that’s a big deal with the Yankees this year: how many innings can the starters give? 

If you want to factor in return on investment, they’re fairly even. Humberto Sanchez is the best prospect of the six they received in both trades, but we all know the story with his injuries. Whelan looks great, too, except he’s going to undergo elbow surgery sooner or later. Ohlendorf and Gonzalez could contribute as soon as later this year, and I like Steven Jackson, too.

RB: Sheffield, since he made almost no contribution to the 2006 team, and was basically unneeded for the ’07 variety. Johnson figures to rebound in Arizona, and might have been useful. 

SL: Johnson, hands down.  Sheffield is a PITA – but, he can still play.  Johnson is a PITA who is cooked.  Losing a PITA and a bad player trumps losing a PITA and a good player every time.

SG: Sheffield’s probably a better bet to have a good season, but he’s not as good as Bobby Abreu, and didn’t have a position.  Johnson could very well rebound this year, but I’m not sad to see him go.  I wouldn’t look at dumping one or the other as an addition, because I think they are both likely to be above average performers this year.

LM: I don’t think the Yankees got better by getting rid of either of those players.  Had they kept Sheffield and played him at first all year, he probably would have become an adequate defensive player eventually, and his bat would have made the Yankees’ lineup unthinkably devastating.  Of course, they didn’t really need him, either

Johnson was either very good or very bad last year.  I think what we saw last year wasn’t a pitcher who was unlucky with runners on base, but an older pitcher who is starting to lose it.  The Yanks got rid of him to save money, but from an on-field perspective, there was the problem that when Johnson was at his worst, they had little chance to win.  The team doesn’t need an ace who is sometimes awful, they need a middle-of-the-rotation starter who is usually okay.

3. Of the haul for both malcontents, who’s most impressive to you?

SM: Sheffield, by a wide margin. The booty from the desert – a major league reliever, a possible major league middle infielder and two somewhat promising arms – was on par with what Johnson was to Arizona: a conquering hero and a serviceable pitcher with top flight potential. Getting arguably Detroit’s best pitching prospect and another promising arm for a malcontented guy with no place to play, that’s a miracle on par with the Womack trade.

Mike: Humberto Sanchez and Ross Ohlendorf are the highlights of the deal, and while Sanchez hasn’t thrown yet this year because of injury (surprise surprise) and Ohlendorf was out making a name for himself in Spring Training, the guy I’ve been most impressed with is Steven Jackson, aka the fourth guy in the Unit deal. He showed a real live arm and a great deal of aggressiveness this spring, and he pitched well down in the zone. No, he’s not going to be a frontline guy, but he’s going to be a very good (and cheap) option for the back end of the rotation by July, something the Yanks haven been spending $8-10M a year to fill the last couple of years. Alberto Gonzalez is a great trade chip.

RB: I have high hopes for Humberto Sánchez, who came over from Detroit; even though I’m not sure he’ll stick as a starter. Luis Vizcaino should be useful this year. 

SL: I liked the Johnson deal better than the Sheffield trade.  It would not shock me to see none of those former Tiger pitching prospects amount to much.  Getting Luis Vizcaino and a potential Gold Glove shortstop in the Johnson deal should help the Yankees now and in the future.

SG: The Detroit package seems to have the highest ceiling prospect in Humberto Sanchez, although he can’t seem to stay healthy. Minor league relievers tend to fizzle at the big league level, so I don’t have much hope for either Whelan or Claggett.

I didn’t really like the package that came back from Arizona.  I have my doubts that anyone acquired in that trade is going to amount to much, although at the very least they got a serviceable reliever in Luis Vizcaino.  It was ok as a salary dump I guess.

LM: I’d probably go with the “haul” for Sheffield.  Vizcaino helps the bullpen depth, and Ohlendorf could help a bit, but I think Humberto Sanchez has the best chance to be a valuable pitcher for the team long-term.

4. Heading into 2007, what is most troubling to you about the current Yankee team?

SM: Heading in, I’d have said the defense, but two weeks in and Chase Wright starting tonight, the health and stability of the starting pitching is a concern. Not because I don’t think the pitching can hold up, I’m worried about the cascade affecting the relievers, turning an effective squad into a mound of slagged arms.

Joe: Other than minor concerns over the health of the positional players, the starting rotation is of grave concern, and Wang’s injury didn’t help matters. Moose figures for a solid season, but Pettitte’s health has to be a concern. Ditto for Pavano. I’m also concerned about how long he can last each outing. Kei Igawa is a complete unknown at this point. Karstens and Rasner probably won’t end up being more than spot starters, though Karstens is showing a bit of promise. We’ve got Phil Hughes waiting, but who knows how long it will take him to adjust to MLB ball. 

RB: The rotation in general. There’s a lot of depth, but it might taking some doing to figure out who the best five are.

SL: Starting pitching.  Pavano and Igawa are unknowns – in terms of what you should expect this season.  Mussina is no longer horse-material.  Wang and Pettitte could be aces – but, they could both be near-average pitchers as well.  The Yankees starting rotation could win 80 games this season – or they could win 60 games this season.  That’s a big swing – and it’s troubling.

SG: In order of troublesomeness: The starting pitching…The defense, particularly at SS and LF… The black hole at first base

LM: OK, we’re already a couple of weeks into the season, and everyone is going to say “starting pitching!”, but I’m not really THAT worried about it.  Yeah, Mussina, Wang, Karstens and Pavano are all injured, but these are all likely to be minimal DL stints.  The team doesn’t have a true “ace” who you stick out on the mound and know you’re likely to win behind, but that’s not really what they needed last season.  If they had an “ace” against the Tigers in the ALDS, they still would have lost 3-1, because it wasn’t Game 1 pitching that failed them, it was Game 2, 3 and 4 that failed them (as well as the offense).

My biggest concern would probably be the lack of bench depth.  Wil Nieves is a typical Torre catcher – so useless with the bat that when the Yankees give Posada a day off, they usually have to bring him in as a pinch-hitter late anyway, so it’s not really a day off.  Miguel Cairo can play everywhere, but he can’t hit, and they’re using three roster spots on 1B-only players.  They only have one backup outfielder, Melky, though as I said Cairo can play everywhere – but what if an infielder and two outfielders go down in a game?  Then you start having guys out of position, and some of the guys in the lineup won’t be able to hit at all.

5. Same as last year: If __________ goes down for the season in April, the Yankees will not have a chance at the playoffs and why?

SM: Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez. The drop from ARod to X (Miggy Cairo, Chris Basik or Alberto Gonzalez) is so severe I doubt the team could recover. The only other guy that comes close is the drop from Posada to Wil Neives (or whoever else they might bring in from the organization).

Mike: Most years I’d say Mo, but the Yanks have enough experienced arms in the pen this year that I think they can get by if the Hammer of God goes down for an extended period of time. With that said, if Jorge Posada goes down, the Yanks are serious trouble, and I’m not just taking about homers and RBIs either. He’s a major glue guy, and at times you’d think he’s the only guy on the team willing to get some dirt on his uniform. Throw in the fact that the Yanks have no viable long-term options behind him, and you’re looking at the Yanks most irreplaceable player.

RB: Same as last year, the left side of the infield. Although the panic that would accompany Rivera being out would be a sight to see. 

SL: I want to say Abreu – because he’s their three-hitter and you lose a lot when you lose your three-hitter.  When the Yankees lost Sheffield last year, they had to go get Abreu to replace him in the three-slot.  But, I’m going to say “A-Rod” – and not because of his hitting.  If Alex Rodriguez is out for the season, by April, what’s the media going to do for a story all year?  They’re going to have to start getting into things like the contracts for Torre, Mo, and Posada.  Or, they’ll get on Abreu’s contract.  Or, they’ll find some other sore spot to be annoying for the team.  Having Alex means never having to worry about the press digging through the rest of the team’s dirty laundry. 

SG: Alex Rodriguez, because they don’t have anyone in the organization who is within six wins of him as a 3B.
Jorge Posada, for the same reason.

LM: That would have to be a combination of players, wouldn’t it?  One player going down isn’t going to sink this team.  I’d say a combination of Alex Rodriguez, Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter going down would sink the team, and they could probably survive the loss of two of those guys – though it would be a struggle.  The loss of one of those guys and they can manage, though they wouldn’t be a lock to make the playoffs by any means.

6. By Aug. 1, of the guys currently on the roster, who are most likely to be dispatched to parts away from the Bronx?

SM: If they were smart, they’d cash in on Kyle Farnsworth’s alleged closer cachet from his season in Atlanta and deal him to a team looking for closer help. Aside from that – Doug Misspelling is in a gots to go situation. I don’t care how good with the glove he is – he’s twice as bad with the stick.

Mike: I’m betting Josh Phelps will be a goner by June, let along August, but he’s not exactly a key cog in the Yanks machine. The Yanks have a glut of hard throwing relievers, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a guy like Proctor or Farnsworth was traded away. For what? Who knows.

RB: Not counting fringy guys already (Sean Henn, I’m looking at you), I can’t see big moves being made. Maybe Eric Duncan gets dispatched to somewhere for a starter

SL: Either Carl Pavano or Mike Myers.  If I had to bet, I’m saying Pavano.  It will be a deal like the one where they “dumped” Contreras in 2004.

SG: Same answer as last year.  Wil Nieves, and I’m sticking to it.

LM: I’d say Josh Phelps will never get a fair shake by Joe Torre, and be sent back to Baltimore, and Jeff Karstens will probably finish the season in AAA, or get traded for a more experienced pitcher.

7. Will the Yankees sign Hamlet, er Roger Clemens? And should they?

SM: Given the problems in the rotation, they’ll do their damnedest, and when they do that, they usually succeed. I’ve been a proponent of signing Clemens, but at a reduced rate and for two years. Think about it, appeal to Roger’s sense of history and right into the contract that he throws in the last regular season game in the House that Ruth Built. Give him the same sort of Hamlet-y schedule and bring him in on a two-year, $25 million deal or so. Maybe?

Joe: Answering the second question first, yes, they should. They have money, and they might as well spend it where it’s needed: pitching. He’s an expensive rental who, while he won’t be as dominant as he was in Houston, will still be a very good AL East pitcher. 

Will they? I have no clue. No one does. You can speculate all day long and try to read between the lines, but at this point, there’s just no telling.

RB: I give them a fifty percent chance and yes, any time you can add a guy who hasn’t had an ERA over three the last three years, you do. 

SL: Like I said, the Yankees starting rotation could win 80 games this season – or they could win 60 games this season.  If it’s starting to look like the latter, they probably will make a run at Clemens (if he’s coming back).  Should they?  I say “no” – because, at his age, Clemens is no-lock to be a sound and/or good pitcher for the Yankees in 2007.

SG: Probably.  Yes, they should.  They may not need him to make the playoffs, but they could definitely use him in the postseason.  I figure Clemens would be good for an ERA of 3.75 or so in the AL East in front of the Yankee defense.  I’d be hard-pressed to think any of their current starters are going to be able to do any better than that.

LM: I think there’s a good chance they will.  Clemens said a lot of things this offseason that paved the way for a return to the Bronx without looking like a hypocrite.  Things like, if Pettitte had re-signed with the Yanks, he would have come back to them.

8. Will we see Philip Hughes this year? And if we do, what’s his final line?

SM: Probably. I’m bearish on Yankee phenom starters (thanks for crushing my dreams Domingo Jean and Sam Militello), so I’ll say 2-4 in seven starts, with a 4.75 ERA and a 35 to 25 K to BB ratio in about 65 innings.

Mike: Oh definitely. With the way the Yanks rotation has looked so far, he could be in the rotation by late April, and it’s very possible he’ll be the Yanks best starter in the second half. Final line? Let’s say 5-4 record, 3.75 ERA, 79.1 IP, 82 H, 38 R, 33 ER, 27 BB, 71 K. Pedestrian numbers yes, but the Phil Hughes phenomenon isn’t about now, it’s about the next 10 years. 

RB: I think Hughes will be up in September at the absolute latest, but probably well before. Overall? 7-3, 3.85 ERA, 60 IP. 

SL: Yes.  I think he’ll end up throwing about 65 innings for the Yankees this season with an ERA around four and three-quarters.

SG: Yes.  I’d think he’ll get somewhere around 10 starts, and pitch 55 innings or so.  ERA around 4.5, with calls from Mike Lupica to trade him because he’s a bust.

LM: I don’t know if he’ll show up this season – though I guess it’s fairly likely he’ll get a few September starts.  If he does, I see his line being something like 2-1, 4.50 ERA.

9. Speaking of new faces in the rotation – at the end of the year, how will Igawa’s line compare to that more famous Japanese import?

SM: A lot more walks… and a lot less success. Matsuzaka will probably win about a half-dozen more games, strikeout more, walk less, have a better ERA. Two weeks in – Dice-K looks like a Lexus. Igawa looks like a Hyundai.

Joe: Igawa won’t be terrible, I think.  He’s still going to walk a lot of guys, which will hurt, but he’ll probably end up with an ERA around 4.50. Matsuzaka, though, will come in about a run below that. After watching them pitch, there’s really no comparison. I still can’t believe that Cashman bid only $7 million more on Matsuzaka as he did on Igawa.

RB: Although I’m writing this on the evening after he’s been killed by Baltimore, I like Igawa to surprise. 15-7, 3.90 ERA, 180 IP. 

SL: I think Igawa’s ERA will be around one-and-a-half runs higher than Matsuzaka’s ERA.  But, their win totals on the season will be less than five apart.

SG: He’ll have an ERA twice as high, and win half as many games. 

LM: Both will include digits and decimal points.  Otherwise, they won’t be very similar.  Matsuzaka will probably win 18 games with a 3.75 ERA or so, and Igawa will win between 10 and 15 games with an ERA of 4.75.

10. More important re-signing after the season: Mo or Po?

SM: From a PR perspective, the answer is Mariano. And it will be until he decides to retire. However, from an onfield perspective, Posada is much less replaceable right now. The team just has nothing in the way of catching depth, while they have a number of power arms that are fully capable of closing games should the Hammer of God walk away.

Joe: Oh, geeze. I don’t want to disrespect Rivera in any way, but I’ve got to go with Posada here. He’s consistently one of the best offensive catchers in the game. They’re in for a HUGE drop-off with anyone else, especially considering the barren market. It would be difficult to replace Mo, and I certainly wouldn’t want Farnsworth in that role, but it can be done to a certain degree. Will you find someone as good as him? Never. But you can definitely find a capable closer. Finding a catcher that comes close to Posada is much tougher.

RB: In actual import, Posada. In perceived import, Rivera. This being New York, which of those is actually more important is a matter of debate. 

SL: It’s a tie.  From a fan-pleasing position, the Yankees must re-sign Rivera.  And, from a finding a replacement-player position, the Yankees must re-sign Posada.

SG: In a pure baseball sense, Posada is probably going to be harder to replace than Rivera.  That being said, I’d rather keep Mo.  Posada is more likely to collapse.

LM: The Yankees don’t have anyone who can take Posada’s place, but he’s also very likely to fall apart during his next contract.  While Rivera is old, there’s nobody on the planet who can replace him – and even when he declines, he’ll still be a valuable middle reliever, though he’d probably retire before then.

11. Of the core group of Yankees, who’s most primed for a decline?

SM: I think Matsui is right on the precipice. Wrist injuries are notoriously slow healing and his bat could be slow from time to time anyway. Couple that with his shaky defense in left and “flair for the dramatic” aside, it could be time to warm up those weird midget Japanese singers for Godzilla, cause the movie might almost be over.

Joe: The easy answer is Posada because of his position. Is Damon a core Yankee? If so, that’s my answer. 

RB: Paranoia continues to strike me about Damon suddenly falling over a cliff taking over Bernie Williams’ centerfield-albatross role. Matsui’s two billion consecutive games played may also catch up to him. 

SL: It’s one of the Yank’s Post-Y2K Poster-Children:  Mussina or Giambi.  If it’s Giambi, it will be because of injury.  If it’s Mussina, it will be because of an increase in homeruns per fly balls allowed.

SG: Is Mussina core?  I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from him so far, in spring or in his first start.  He hasn’t touched 90 yet, and I’m not sure his arm is completely healthy.

If Mussina’s not core, I’d say Jeter will decline from 2006 a fairly significant amount.

LM: Probably Giambi, who is getting pretty old for a walks-and-homers first baseman. 

12. Will we see return engagement from Bernabe Figueroa Williams in the Bronx this year (Bernie Williams Day excepted)?

SM: Not without a ticket. I love Bernie to death, but he’s just not capable of being part of a contending ballclub right now.

Mike: Nah, Bernie will never set foot on a major league baseball field again. It’s unfortunate it went down like it did, but it is what it is. It’s not like that will be the legacy of Bernie Williams; how people remember Yogi Berra hitting .222 with the Mets in 1965?

RB: A 1-2% chance at best. There are three back-ups ahead of Bernie on the depth chart (Melky, and the Kevins Thompson and Long) and I think they’d all get shots ahead of him. 

SL: If we do see Bernie playing for the Yankees this season, it will be the sorriest activation in Yankees history since the time they activated Chris Chambliss back in 1988.

SG: Nope.  Bernie blew his chance by not accepting the minor league invite.

LM: Nope.  Not a chance.

13. Some Melky Cabrera time – who is this year’s Melky and is Melky really last year’s Melky?

SM: Sean Henn. Relief seems to agree with him and the narrative works – an early panic callup goes horribly awry, but returns to the majors to experience some success. As for the actual Melky, I think eventually he’ll develop a bit more power, but he looks like he could stick for a while.

Mike: The trendy pick for this year’s Melky is Bronson Sardinha, who had himself a hell of a spring, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say Eric Duncan – he’s been scorching the ball in Triple-A and putting together Yankee-esque “wear down the pitcher” Abs since last year. I don’t see much more room for improvement with Melky, .280-.360-.400 is where he’ll sit for most of his career. 

RB: I’m not quite sure Josh Phelps counts as this year’s Melky, since he’s not exactly an unknown young player, but I like his chances of surprising casual fans. As for Melky, I’m not sure he’ll be as good a hitter, but I’m reluctant to bet against someone who was league average at age twenty-one. 

SL: Jeff Karstens could be this year’s Melky.  And, I think Melky this season will look somewhat like the Melky from last year.

SG: This year’s Melky?  Kevin Thompson I guess. 

As far as Melky being last year’s Melky, I think he can do about as well as he did last year.  I don’t see much growth in him going forward, but I think he’ll be useful as a 4th OF. 

LM: Well, last year’s Melky wasn’t that great.  He was good for his age, but not good enough to be an everyday player, so I’ll say yeah, that’s the real Melky.  If he wants to be a starter, he’ll need to improve.

This year’s Melky?  I don’t think any position players will get enough time to show that, but Sean Henn could be the breakout guy this season.

14. Are you pleased with what Cashman/Torre did with the bullpen? What should we expect from these guys?

SM: Cutting the cord on Villone was a huge step for Joe. So yeah, I’m happy. They have lots of guys who throw very hard, and throw a lot of strikes. Offense aside, this is the team’s strength, provided they aren’t toasted by June.

Mike: The bullpen is deep now, there’s 4 guys in Bruney, Farnsworth, Proctor and Vizcaino to divide up those 6th, 7th and 8th inning situations. I thought Bruney pitched way over his head late last year, but he can just bring it and I’m fully on board with him now. He seems like the kind of guy that wouldn’t have a problem throwing some chin music at David Ortiz if he’s leaning out over the plate. Vizcaino is essentially replacing Villone, so let’s just hope he can handle the load. Proctor and Farnsworth are what they are at this point, flashes of brilliance, flashes of “how the hell are these guys pitching in the bigs,” but rock steady most nights. 

RB: Very pleased, but then, I am every year and then I get let down every year. But I’ll continue to be a glutton for punishment and look forward to the 2007 bullpen. 

SL: What did Cashman do with the pen?  He replaced Ron Villone with Sean Henn.  And, he added Luis Vizcaino to replace guys like Aaron Small, T.J. Beam, Tanyon Sturtze and Octavio Dotel.  Villone and Henn are probably a push.  Vizcaino is a huge upgrade.  But, it’s not like Cashman rebuilt the thing, in a big way, from last year.

SG: I wasn’t happy about carrying 12 pitchers, but after watching the rotation on its first pass, I completely understand now.  I have no qualms with the bullpen at all.  I think Vizcaino will be a good hedge against Scott Proctor’s regression and Kyle Farnsworth’s inconsistency.  I also think Henn and Bruney have some upside and hope they get the chance to show what they’ve got.  They’ve also got Chris Britton stashed in Columbus as extra depth.  Aside from Myers, all the relievers are power arms, which is a good thing.  They could be one of the top two or three bullpens in the league.

LM: Oh, I’m very pleased.  They put together a bullpen with a lot of talent but without big contracts.  There’s very little risk involved with these guys, and if they stink, you have no probably cutting them loose.  But they also have a good chance to pitch really well.  This could end up being one of the best bullpens in baseball.

15. Aside from the third baseman, the biggest drama this spring was the fall of Steve Swindal. What do you think this does to the franchise in the short term and in the long term?

SM: Short term is has no effect (unlike the Cubs impending sale, which has thrown a crucial contract negotiation off the rails. Long term, depending on how The Boss draws the lines of succession, it could be a disaster. If the team goes into corporate ownership, or if a less zealous caretaker acquires the team, it could create a number of problems in the player acquisition field, which would be an issue.

Joe: Short term, it shouldn’t do much. As long as Cashman is still running the baseball operations, they’ll be fine. Long term, well, everyone’s speculated as to that. As long as Donald Trump doesn’t buy the team, though, I think they’ll be fine.

RB: In the short term, not much. In the long term, it may alter the course of the franchise unless some of the younger Steinbrenners can be convinced to keep the franchise. 

SL: Short-term, there’s no issue.  But, long-term, this a major issue.  After George, with his two sons calling the shots, this thing could become something like the Wellington and Tim Mara situation - where it becomes so ugly and dysfunctional that it impacts the team in a negative way - and the Yankees become like the football Giants (meaning a team with a great and devoted fan-base, lots of revenue, but one that rarely has the best team in the league or wins).  Or, the kids cash out the team for the big money and then some joker like Trump buys the team.  Yikes.

SG: Swindal was a big backer of Cashman and his new direction.  I’m not sure if Hal and Hank Steinbrenner share the same viewpoint or are more like their father.  Short-term, it shouldn’t matter much.  Long-term, it will come down to if Cashman can deliver a World Series or not.

LM: Short-term, there’s almost no impact.  Swindal was starting to take over, but Steinbrenner was still in charge.  Long-term it could have huge implications.  If Steinbrenner can’t find someone else to take over, there is the chance that the franchise will end up being sold to an owner – perhaps a corporate owner – who will invest far less money in player acquisition to maximize profits, and the team’s performance will suffer for it.

16. On the subject of Mr. Rodriguez, we have a battery of questions: Will he opt out? Should he opt out? Should the Yankees attempt to keep him if he does? Will the fans ever “embrace him?” And what can we expect from him in ’07?

SM: Yeah. No. Absolutely. If he hits and they win. A monster year. I’d say more, but frankly, I’m sick of writing/reading/thinking about it. I will add that if he does leave because the fans/team/Jeter never brought him inside, we deserve an 86-year curse.

Mike: Yes he will opt out, but there’s no right answer to the “should he opt out” question – it’s his choice and he’s a grown man, whatever he wants to do he can. Looking around at the replacement options, yes the Yanks should try to keep him, but only to a point – don’t offer him anymore than what he’s worth just because of desperation. I think most Yankee fans do embrace him, there’s a few people out there who generally dislike the guy (you know the type, the guy who bashes him when he fails but claims to have been pulling for him the whole time when he succeeds). Everyone sure loved him when he hit that walk-off granny.

He’s going to be a monster in 2007. He’s basically playing for a new contract, he’s got a chip on his shoulder, and he’s just a really great ballplayer. He could be better than he was in 2005, and that’s scary. 

RB: As a Yankee fan, I don’t want A-Rod to opt-out, but given both his treatment and the money to be gained, I’m sure he will. The Yankees should do all they can to keep him, even though I doubt the fans ever will. As for the 2007, I look for a major rebound season and he’ll be the most valuable player on the team by a fair amount. 

SL: Will he opt out?  Yes, no question – Boras will ensure that.  Should he opt out?  Probably – it would be stupid not to see what’s out there.  Should the Yankees attempt to keep him?  No.  He’s not worth more than what his contract reads now.  Will the fans ever embrace him?  Never fully, in my opinion.  What can we expect from him this season?  About the same numbers as he posted in 2004 and 2006.

SG: Yes, I think he will opt out.  I’m not sure if he should.  He may increase his potential career earnings by opting out, but he may also harm his legacy if he’s perceived as “quitting” New York.  I wouldn’t fault him for leaving based on how a vocal minority of fans and the media have treated him.  There are few third baseman as valuable as Rodriguez, so they should try to keep him.  It’s possible he’ll eventually be embraced, but I’d bet against it.  An MVP-caliber season.

LM: I don’t think A-Rod will opt out, nor should he.  He’s probably not going to severely decline or get injured in the next four seasons, and by opting out now, he’s probably agreeing to much less money long-term than he’d get now.

If he does opt out, I think the Yankees almost have to keep him, but I can very easily see Cashman letting him go.  Cash seems very averse to locking up older players long-term, and that’s what it would take to keep A-Rod.  But then, there’s not much else out there for them, so he might be forced to pursue him.

A-Rod’s Grand Slam walkoff goes a long way towards bringing the fans on his side, but to keep that love, he needs to have a season where in most big clutch situations he either walks, gets a hit, or flies out to the warning track.  Fans won’t see that as failure, and then they’ll allow the clutch successes to sway their opinion of him.  Then, finally, those ungrateful bastards will appreciate how great a player he really is.

I think A-Rod will have a huge year this season, and I don’t just say that because of his hot start.  I can easily see 50 HRs or more from him.  An MVP seems not at all unlikely.

17. Over-under time: 4.41 team ERA… 950 runs scored… 25 Carl Pavano starts … 35 Jeter errors …. 600 innings between Pettitte, Wang and Mussina … 400 Melky ABs … 250 walks between Abreu and Giambi … One 1+ inning save for Mariano… 4.3 million fans in attendance.

SM: Over. Over. Under (Pavano). Over. Under (innings pitched). Over. Over. Over. Over.

Joe: Over on the team ERA. Over on the runs scored. Under on the Pavano starts. Under on the Jeter errors. To show you how far under I’m giving the 600 innings, I’d have set the over/under at 500. Over on the Melky ABs. Over on the Giambi and Abreu walks. Over on the 1+ inning saves for Mo. Over on the attendance.

Mike: Over on the ERA, under on the runs scored (950 is a ton of runs), over on the Pavano starts, under on the errors, under 600 innings, over on the Melky ABs, under on the free passes, way over on the 1+ inning saves for Mo, over on the attendance. 

RB: ERA: Over…Runs Scored: Under…Pavano Starts: Over…Jeter Errors: Way, way under…Innings Total: Under… Melky ABs: Over… Walks: Just barely under… Rivera Saves: Push… Attendance: Over

SL: 4.41 team ERA – Over. .. 950 runs scored – Under … 25 Carl Pavano starts – Under … 35 Jeter errors – Under … 600 innings between Pettitte, Wang and Mussina – Under … 400 Melky ABs - Over … 250 walks between Abreu and Giambi – Under … One 1+ inning save for Mariano – Over … 4.3 million fans in attendance - Over

SG: Over.  Under.  Under.  Under.  Over.  Over.  Over.  Over.  Under.

LM: Under, over, over, under, under, under, under, over, under.

18. Team awards: Gold Glove. MVP. Cy Young.

SM: Melky Cabrera. A-Rod. Mariano River

Joe: Gold Glove: Alex. MVP: Alex. Cy Young: Wang.

Mike: Gold Glove? Ha, the only ones truly worthy of the moniker are Mariano and Moose. Mo will be the team’s unspoken MVP again, but A-Rod will get the traditional vote. Pavano for the Cy! Okay fine, back to reality. How about Dandy Andy for the Cy?

RB: A-Rod. A-Rod. Mariano

SL: Melky is the best defender on the team.  Matsui will be the most-valuable hitter, and, Rivera will be the team’s best pitcher this season.

SG: No one on the team will deserve a Gold Glove, but if I had to pick the player who’s most likely to be their best defender this year, I’ll go with Rodriguez, followed by Cano, then Melky.  MVP will be either Rodriguez or Jason Giambi.  Cy Young, probably Rivera.

LM: A-Rod for Gold Glove. A-Rod MVP. Pettitte for Cy.

19. More likely to be back in 2008: Joe Torre or Bob Sheppard?

SM: Sheppard, but not by much.

Joe: Sheppard.

Mike: Sheppard.

RB: Sheppard. Torre is gone either in a blaze of glory or gently nudged out the door. 

SL: Sheppard, God willing.

SG: Sheppard.

LM: Sheppard.

20. The big one … record and result prediction for 2007.

SM: 99-63, first place in the AL East and hopefully some better fortune in October.

Joe: 96-66, 1st in the AL East. No sense predicting the playoffs.

Mike: 94-58, first in the AL East. Again. I hope for the best in the playoffs, as always.

RB: AL East Champions by five games over Boston, World Series Champions in six games over Arizona

SL: 95-67 and finishing first in the east.  Post-season?  Probably much of the same as 2002-06.

SG: 96 wins and another AL East divison title.  I’m not sold on the starting pitching being good enough to win a World Series, but if the bullpen clicks like I think it could, they could bludgeon their way to one.  What the hell, I’ll predict a World Series victory over the Padres.

LM: 98-64, 2nd Place AL East, AL Champions, lose World Series in 7.  A-Rod hit .400 in playoffs with 8 homers, but hits into series-ending DP with one out and bases loaded in the ninth inning of Game 7 with the team down by one run.  Jeter bats .200 in the series – but the press blames A-Rod and pushes him to opt out.