BBTF's Count the Rings™ Discussion :: Due Theory

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Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Due Theory

From my faded, foggy memories of playing, I remember something called to “due theory,” if you were in a slump or hitting a rough patch - eventually things turn around.

The Yanks were due for a break… 30% of what could have been a 1,000 run offense is on the shelf… two of the health bodies are dealing with serious nicks (a foot and a hand to be specific) and the most envied man in baseball (for contract and genetics-related reasons) was feeling the pressure.

Maybe all of that might turn… an off day tomorrow, the Mets coming into town after that and Alex Rodriguez announcing to the world and specifically to Jorge Sosa: I AM CLUTCH YOU SONOFABITCH!

When Jeter went through his horrible slump, my dad said something smart: “If you’re a .320 hitter and you hit .180 for a month, the league better start to chuck and duck.” Call it a hunch, but AL hurlers - consider yourselves warned.

Sean McNally Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:13 PM | 28 comment(s)
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1. Sean McNally Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2079970)

Hot topics... hot like a wall-off homer.

2. Chris Needham Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:26 PM (#2079980)

This thread is going to make MGL cry.

3. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:33 PM (#2079985)

Though our favorite Death Eater, kevin, hasn't been seen in these parts since Voldemort, I mean, Backlasher, was banned, I hope he's forced to watch replays of this over and over and over on TV, and I hope it burns his ####### eyeballs in.

4. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2079989)

Sweet. Just sweet.

5. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2079990)

And to think that I was speculating the inning would go Jeter 1B Giambi BB Rodriguez 543/GTP. Congratulations to Slappy.

6. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:38 PM (#2079991)

I'm a happy camper.

7. bunyon Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:43 PM (#2079994)

Ooo, like a HR against the Braves pen is worthy of excitement. ;)

8. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:46 PM (#2079995)

Ooo, like a HR against the Braves pen is worthy of excitement. ;)

You make a good point. Yesterday, Sosa gave up a homer to MELKY CABRERA, of all people.

9. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:53 PM (#2079997)

More important than A-Rod's homer is the fact that Tiger Wang continues to pitch very well. He's pretty sweet.

10. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:53 PM (#2079998)

I'm pretty sure that this home run will mean more to Rodriguez personally and in the fans' eyes than an "unclutch stat padding" one with the Yankees up by ten runs or something. How much more, and how do we measure it? I think this is the great crack in the sabermetrics concrete.

Maybe it's different for every player and it just can't be measured.

We'll see if this is the beginning of the extended hot streak that A-Rod increasingly needs to bring his season numbers up to their norm.

11. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: June 28, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#2080000)

I think Russlan is correct, by the way. Short-term and maybe long-term, Wang's good pitching over the last few weeks gives me far more optimism for the Yankees. And with the way the AL Central is shaping up, we might have a good, old-fashioned pennant race from here on - our guys have to be better than their guys, no math.

12. Guapo Posted: June 28, 2006 at 06:10 PM (#2080014)

Of course, one possibility is that this does not disprove the A-Rod is not clutch theory, but that Sosa's lack of clutchness is so overwhelming that it negated A-Rod's lack of clutchness.

13. Robert Machemer Posted: June 28, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#2080303)

I'd noticed Kevin had disappeared. Why was Backlasher banned? (By which I mean, was there some specific event that got him banned or some sort of camel's back-breaking straw?)

14. Robert Machemer Posted: June 28, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2080337)

Because some people are #######.
Well, of course, some people are. Lots of people are. But was there a final something-or-other that got Backlasher banned?

15. Guapo Posted: June 28, 2006 at 08:41 PM (#2080346)

Why was Backlasher banned?

He tested positive for steroids. Turns out it was just a big cry for help, all along.

16. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: June 28, 2006 at 09:26 PM (#2080433)

Wait, so Kevin was Backlasher?

17. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: June 28, 2006 at 09:26 PM (#2080434)

18. Larry Mahnken Posted: June 29, 2006 at 12:15 AM (#2080632)

Backlasher was suspended for a month because he was harrasing Jim both on the site and in private e-mails. Jim told him to stop, and instead he increased the level of harrassment. Backlasher wanted Jim to ban him, he wanted to become a martyr, and now the sheep are doing just that for him.

19. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: June 29, 2006 at 02:20 AM (#2080690)

Backlasher wanted Jim to ban him, he wanted to become a martyr,

Wow, what a great summary of why I usually don't get this deep into threads.

20. Not Marv Cook Posted: June 29, 2006 at 04:27 AM (#2080717)

Yeah, I mostly just hang out here and in game chatters, etc, so I don't konw too much about it, but when he's been around he does seem kinda like a dick.

21. Larry Mahnken Posted: June 29, 2006 at 05:00 AM (#2080723)

Yeah, I mostly just hang out here and in game chatters, etc, so I don't konw too much about it, but when he's been around he does seem kinda like a dick.

Well, so do I.

Wait, I am a dick. Well, at least I'd like to think I have my good moments. And Backlasher has his, too. There are more dickish posters than him, and more consistently dickish, too. Backlasher just has a persecution complex.

22. Not Marv Cook Posted: June 29, 2006 at 05:08 AM (#2080726)

He was/is the anti-Oakland/anti-Beane guy right? I'm thinking of the right guy? I liked what he added to those conversations, just not his tone. (If I have the right guy)

23. Not Marv Cook Posted: June 29, 2006 at 05:10 AM (#2080727)

Yeah, I mostly just hang out here and in game chatters, etc, so I don't konw too much about it, but when he's been around he does seem kinda like a dick.

Well, so do I.

Haha, I can see that. You're our dick though...

24. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: June 29, 2006 at 08:41 AM (#2080769)

25. bunyon Posted: June 29, 2006 at 09:01 AM (#2080778)

#17 deserves an award.

26. PhillyBooster Posted: June 29, 2006 at 12:12 PM (#2080934)

When Brooks Robinson was doing color commentary for the Orioles, he was probably the best prognosticator using "due theory" methodology. No one could predict when Ken Singleton or Rich Dauer would break an 0 for 12 than Brooksie.

Learning at his knee, I see that the Yankees are ony one game below their Pythagorean W/L this year, and being 5 over last year, and 12 over in 2004. They are also on pace to top 850 runs.

I think that for anyone watching from a non-Yankee-fan perspective, using advanced-second-order-Brooksiean metrics of Dueness, the Yankees were simply "Due to Not Be Due" this year.

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