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— Twenty-four, Twenty-five, Twenty-six.... ?

Monday, October 02, 2006

Here kitty, kitty . . .

So here we are again, 12 straight playoff appearances and it doesn’t really ever get old.

I’ve seen the sentiment captured many places – but Alex Belth said it best in a pinch-hitting appearance on Deadspin.com:

[A]fter losing star players like Godzilla Matsui and Gary Sheffield early in the year—not to mention All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano for six weeks—the Bronx Bombers became, if not exactly underdogs, then at least not exactly the favorites anymore.

Well, I think those times are behind us now and to consider the Yankees anything but, at worst, co-favorites to win not just the American League pennant, but the World Series, is probably not wise.

To wit, just feast your eyes on the Bombers’ Game One lineup (courtesy Peter Abraham’s transcendent blog)

Johnny Damon leads off, plays center;
Derek Jeter hits second, plays short;
Bobby Abreu hits third, plays right;
Gary Sheffield cleanup, first base;
Jason Giambi five-hole, DH;
A-Rod is the greatest No. 6 hitter of all time, plays third;
Hideki Matsui hits seventh, plays left;
Jorge Posada catches, hits eighth; and
Cano, he of the .340 batting average hits last, plays second.

Anything can happen in baseball – that’s what makes it great – but, I can’t help feeling sorry for Nate Robertson come Tuesday night.

Some
are seeing the A-Rod drop down as a slight against him, I don’t. In this lineup, someone’s gotta hit everywhere, and the difference between sixth and fourth or fifth is nominal at best. In fact, the Yankees have created a circular lineup of sorts. The Bombers have three sets of 3-4-5 hitters in their lineup – a lineup that combined to hit 177 homers this season (that’s just this starting nine, the Yanks promise to have an additional 31 homers coming off their playoff bench – which consists of Melky, Bernie, Sal Fasano, Andy Phillips and Miguel Cario).

However, save for pinch running for Giambi and possible defensive tweaks around Matsui and Sheffield, I see this bench getting very little run this postseason.

Looking at the Tigers, they are the very definition of backing into the playoffs – squandering a 9.5 game lead on the Twins since Aug. 1 by going 24-32 since then. The lost out on the chance to win their division by one game by losing five in a row to close out the regular slate – including a sweep at the hands of the Royals.

The sprint to the finish left the Motor City Kitties unable to set their rotation – leaving Nate Robertson to start the opener opposite Chien-Ming Wang. Mike Mussina and Justin Verlander tussle in Game Two and in the Old Cranky Lefties Bowl: Kenny Rogers matches up with Randy Johnson and his bad back in what could be the only postseason game in Comerica this season.

New York finished the season 5-2 versus the feel-good Tigers, winning both series against Detroit and coming dangerously close to a sweep of the season series.

How close?

Well, on June 1, the Yankees held a 6-5 lead going into the bottom of the ninth and had won three in a row against the team with, at the time, the best record in baseball, when Kyle Farnsworth came into close the game out. Mariano Rivera was rested, but tweaked his back putting on his spikes that morning, so it was former Tiger Farnsworth in to shut the door. A walk and three one-out singles later and it was a 7-6 win for Detroit.

An Aug. 29 rainout spawned a twinbill the next day. New York won the first rather convincingly, with Chien-Ming Wang, Scott Proctor and Mariano Rivera combining on a four-hit shutout. In the night cap, the Yanks again held the lead – this time 3-2, when Joe Torre called for Proctor to pull double-duty and go for his first-ever save. The resulting two-out, first-pitch homer game the Tigers a 5-3 win.

So, to recap – Joe’s lousy bullpen management cost the Yanks two wins in seven games against Detroit. Considering how Joe usually goes to Mariano in the playoffs, I doubt Proctor or Farnsworth will be given the opportunity to blow many games close and late.

Speaking of the bullpen, like the lineup, it appears loaded.

From the right side you have two long relievers/starters in Cory Lidle and Jaret Wright, a trio of power arms (Proctor, Farnsworth and Brian Bruney) and a pair of serviceable lefties (Mike Myers and Ron Villone).

Based on how they’ve pitched down the stretch, I’d guess that Wright gets a possible Game Four start and Villone is relegated to last guy in the ‘pen duty for the duration of the playoffs.

That essentially gives Joe a fairly good approximation of his glory days bullpens of Stanton and Nelson. Go to Bruney first, then Proctor and Farnsworth – with Myers available for a tough lefty in a tough spot.

All told, I feel very good about this Yankee team heading into the ALDS (and I feel even better about trading surging Minnesota for slumping Detroit). I’ll refrain from making a Yanks in ___ games prediction, and just say, that for the past few years, I’ve hoped for good things in the playoffs but this year, I expect them.

Sean McNally Posted: October 02, 2006 at 04:39 PM | 51 comment(s)
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   1. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 02, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#2194853)
A's in 6.
   2. Sean McNally Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#2194888)
OK, Toilet, they only cost them one game against Detroit. I'll give out a mulligan for the tweaked back, but Proctor pitching in both ends of a doubleheader, that's just dumb.
   3. JC in DC Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#2194892)
I agree w/Toilet re Joe and the Bullpano. And, I'd add, that you don't really get to do the "well, if X hadn't happened, we would've Y'ed." PLEASE let's not go underestimating our opponents whose starting pitching is vastly superior to ours.
   4. Sean McNally Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2194897)
Bullpano.

Didn't we sign him to a $40 million contract last year? Whatever happened to him?
   5. Mike Webber Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:25 PM (#2194901)
I read Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano became the second keystone combination to both hit over .340 in the same season. Did anyone read who was the first?
   6. Cutter Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#2194905)
and in the Old Cranky Lefties Bowl: Kenny Rogers matches up with Randy Johnson and his bad back in what could be the only postseason game in Comerica this season.
[hands on ears] Lalalala, not listening! No more jinxing their chances!
   7. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:39 PM (#2194914)
According to ESPN, Rivera is going to be a one inning pitcher in October. FWIW, I don't believe that for a second.
   8. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:55 PM (#2194921)
Randy Johnson will find a way to lose four games in a best of five series. Then, he will be executed on the field. Then, I will switch my allegiance to Detroit for the rest of the postseason.
   9. Cowboy Popup Posted: October 02, 2006 at 06:52 PM (#2194958)
I see no reason for Sheffield hitting cleanup, but whatever.
   10. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 02, 2006 at 06:57 PM (#2194962)
Right, Sheff should be batting around 6-7-8. I would rather flop him with Posada or Arod.
   11. Captain Supporter Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:11 PM (#2194994)
A-rod is batting sixth for a reason. Like it or not, his manager feels he can't handle the pressure of the cleanup spot. Of course, now the guy has to answer hundreds of questions about how he feels about his demotion in the order. All in all though I agree with Torre's decision.

The only half reasonable reason to limiting Rivera to one inning is that he still has discomfort in his forearm. Otherwise you are limiting one of the best weapons in the history of baseball just to be conservative. I think there still must be a problem otherwise Torre would have used him at least once on back to back games in the last week of the regular season.
   12. kevin Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2195000)
Didn't we sign him to a $40 million contract last year?


McNally's channeling Costanza.
   13. Sean McNally Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2195036)
kevin,

What time is the Sox game tomorrow?
   14. Brian Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:19 PM (#2195045)
Sean,
I think they have an 8:12 AM tee time ...
   15. Got Melky? Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:39 PM (#2195055)
Anyone else think we might see more of Bruney than Farnsworth? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
   16. Rough Carrigan Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:04 AM (#2195206)
Will Rogers apparently never met any yankee fans.
   17. Larry Mahnken Posted: October 03, 2006 at 02:32 AM (#2195276)
vs. Robertson the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .330/.383/.440
vs. Verlander the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .500/.600/1.000 -- and Jeter, Abreu, Sheffield and Matsui have never faced him.
vs. K. Rogers the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .375/.470/.763 -- only Abreu, Cano and Matsui have fewer than 18 PAs against him
vs. Bonderman the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .313/.375/.520

If the Tigers shut down the Yankees, I'll be stunned. This has the makings of a rout, really.
   18. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 03, 2006 at 08:24 AM (#2195343)
Mike:

The 1894 Cleveland Spiders had the keystone combo of Cupid Childs and Ed McKean. Cupid hit .353 that season while Ed chipped in at .357.

The twosome almost did it again in 1896 but McKean only managed a .338 average. Piker.

If it's after 1901 or some such then I don't know who it is. I have a fascination with the Spiders so am pretty familiar with their history.

Regards,

Harvey
   19. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 03, 2006 at 09:55 AM (#2195415)
Some Postseason stats

BA/OBP/SLG

Player A .262 .421 .423
Player B .305 .393 .534
Player C .338 .361 .550
Player D .278 .358 .527
Player E .307 .379 .463
Player F .301 .383 .552
Player G .284 .363 .465
Player H .233 .321 .351

Only 1 of those players has a poor postseason reputation, while one other is batting fourth despite only playing 2 games all season.
   20. Sean McNally Posted: October 03, 2006 at 09:58 AM (#2195419)
Player F, er A-Rod has some nice postseason numbers, eh?
   21. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2006 at 10:12 AM (#2195429)
I have a fascination with the Spiders so am pretty familiar with their history.

Regards,

Harvey


You'd have never gotten anywhere with my Mom.
   22. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 03, 2006 at 10:12 AM (#2195430)
Nope, Player F is David Ortiz.
   23. Sean McNally Posted: October 03, 2006 at 10:19 AM (#2195439)
Nope, Player F is David Ortiz.

When does his game start today?
   24. Buddha Posted: October 03, 2006 at 11:38 AM (#2195558)
vs. Robertson the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .330/.383/.440
vs. Verlander the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .500/.600/1.000 -- and Jeter, Abreu, Sheffield and Matsui have never faced him.
vs. K. Rogers the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .375/.470/.763 -- only Abreu, Cano and Matsui have fewer than 18 PAs against him
vs. Bonderman the Yankees' playoff lineup has batted .313/.375/.520


Are those career numbers or this season?

The numbers against Verlander are misleading because when he pitched against the Yankees he had a busted blister on his throwing hand. If those are career numbers, then they're skewed because RObertson and Bonderman are better pitchers now than they were when they were younger.

But as to your point, I agree that this has the makings of a rout. The Tigers are definitely behind the eight-ball. This isn't a situation like last year with the White Sox. That Sox team had better starting pitching, a better bullpen and was facing lesser competition and STILL needed the luckiest post-season I've ever seen to beat a weak Red Sox and Angels team. This Tiger team is facing one of the best lineups in the history of baseball with an average pitching staff and a poor lineup.

But they have three players (IRod, Guillen and Ordonez) who are very good and a number of other players who are capable of hitting a lot of home runs (Inge, Monroe, Granderson) and they have very solid defense at key positions (catcher, third, center and second...and Guillen has good range at short).

If Verlander gets hot, they've got a chance to steal one in New York. And if that happens, it could be a close series, because a hurt Randy Johnson and Wright/Lidle don't scare anyone. Well, maybe Neifi Perez (who actually owns Randy Johnson).

All in all, I think the Yankees take it in four, with the Tigers pulling one out in a slugfest in game three. A Yankee sweep would not surprise me. If the Tigers won more than one game, I'd be extremely surprised. If the Tigers won the series, I'd be shocked.
   25. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 03, 2006 at 11:46 AM (#2195570)
I think the Tigers have a better chance than everyone is giving them.
   26. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:25 PM (#2195640)
Career Postseason BA/OBP/SLG

Sheffield .262 .421 .423
A-Rod .305 .393 .534
Jeter .307 .379 .463



While it's true that Sheff's numbers are in "only" 190 PA's, he's had more postseason PA's than A-Rod. His stats don't scream "Clutch, Must Hit 4th" to me. I would have flipped A-Rod and Sheff in batting order, but I'm not sure it makes much difference.
   27. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:28 PM (#2195644)
I think the Tigers have a better chance than everyone is giving them.

I agree, but on the other hand, I still don't think that chance is a good one. They have to be significant underdogs, IMO.
   28. Anthony Giacalone Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:31 PM (#2195649)
Not to get in be the narc at the party or anything, but to say that the Yanks are going to "rout" the Tigers one has to completely discount half the game.

The Yankees have a terrific, albeit geriatric, lineup, but the Tigers lineup is excellent. Surely, around here we can understand the influence of park effects. And away from their cavernous home grounds, the Tigers scored 430 runs this year (a significant, 50 less than the Yankees), third in the AL, and hit a dozen more road homers than any other team in the league. The Tigers are a bit power-heavy, but they have an extremely good lineup.

And the crazy thing is that their rediculously good pitching is NOT a park effect (or at least they were just as good on the road as at home). Their 3.78 road ERA is more than a half a run per game better than the second best pitching staff in the AL. I'll let that sink in for a minute. On neutral fields, they allowed nearly 90 less runs than the Yankees.

So, away from their own homes the Tigers are +40 runs on New York. Now, of course, these teams are playing in "neutral" parks and, perhaps, the Yankees lineup is somehow uniquely tailored to the Bronx. But, personally, I don't see it.

Obviously, part of the pitching is defense, where the Tigers have been just phenomenal this season. Their entire infield has been extrarodinary. Shelton and Casey led the AL in ZR. So, did Inge. So, did Palanco. And, Guillen was third among AL SS in ZR. You don't want to see the Yankee fielders in ZR. Believe me. In the outfield, the Tigers were more ordinary but still much better than the Yankees overall. Much, much better. In fact, the only position on the field where the Yankees aren't completely overmatched by Detroit, fielding-wise, is centerfield, where they are just a bit worse.

Buddha dismisses the comparison, but, frankly, if there is a team more like the 2005 White Sox (built upon the foundation of power, pitching and defense) than the Tigers, I can't imagine it.

I know that pitching and defense are only half of the walnut, but they are half. To say that they Yankees are going to rout the Tigers, one needs to pretend that hitting is the only thing that matters. Surely, the last five years of Yankee post-season futility -- nearly all due to a lack of pitching and defense -- should be evidence that there is more to a baseball than that. A lot more.
   29. Sean McNally Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:38 PM (#2195654)
Anthony,

I feel more worried about the Tigers pitching and defense if they hadn't been a sub-.500 team for the last two months.

Its possible they could put it all together, but frankly, right now I just don't see it.
   30. SG in ATL Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:39 PM (#2195657)
The Tigers are a bit power-heavy, but they have an extremely good lineup.


The Tigers' OBP is average. The starting nine have an OBP of around .337, the Yankees' starting nine have an OBP of .392.

Power? The Tigers's starting nine slugged .458 this year, the Yankees' are at .492.

Defense and the bullpen are edges for the Tigers, but the starters are more even than you'd think.

Component ERA:
Robertson: 4.15
Verlander: 4.12
Rogers: 3.70
Bonderman: 3.58

Wang: 3.60
Mussina: 3.02
Randy Johnson: 3.80
Wright: 4.75

The Tigers can beat the Yankees. But the stats say it's a pretty severe mismatch.

I ran through all the numbers here.
   31. Cutter Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:44 PM (#2195660)
If I were a Tigers fan I would be pretty scared about Verlander. He has sucked the last few outings.
   32. The Jerry Royster Experience Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:48 PM (#2195668)
If I were a Tigers fan I would be pretty scared about Verlander.

If I were a Tigers fan I would be pretty scared, period. This team looks pretty bad right now. Not that they couldn't turn it around once the shooting starts (they certainly wouldn't be the first team to do that) but as a White Sox fan, it reminds me a lot of the 2000 team - backing into the playoffs, clearly exhausted, playing a team that looks to be hitting on all cylinders.
   33. Шĥy Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:52 PM (#2195674)
SG, I think you are signficantly underrating the effect of defense.
   34. SG in ATL Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:10 PM (#2195710)
I think you are signficantly underrating the effect of defense.


I didn't get into the detail on the defense in post 31, but here's what I posted in the link. The defensive numbers are all based on zone rating, so there are of course limitations to it.

As a team, the starting nine for the Tigers saved 60 runs above average this season. The Yankees' starting nine cost them 4 runs. Adjusting this for playing time and pro-rating to a per game basis, the Tigers would save .057 R/G on average, the Yankees would give up .005 (-.005). Taking Bernie and Giambi out of the lineup helps the defense greatly, assuming Sheffield's small sample of above average play at 1B isn't a huge mirage, and he's competent until he gets pulled in the late innings.

On offense however, the Yankees make this up by being worth about .180 R/G compared to .007 R/G by Detroit.

So, offense plus defense, I have the Yankee position players as worth .175 R/G, and Detroit's worth .064 R/G.

The Tigers have the talent to beat anyone. They've got some hard throwing pitchers in the rotation and pen, and the best defense in the game. Zumaya could be the biggest difference maker in the playoffs depending on how he's leveraged. It depends on if his poor control (77 BB+) is something the Yankees can take advantage of. I still feel pretty comfortable the Yankees match up better on paper, but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost.
   35. Anthony Giacalone Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:15 PM (#2195721)
I feel more worried about the Tigers pitching and defense if they hadn't been a sub-.500 team for the last two months.

Completely understandable. But do you recall who the Yankees played in the second half of the season? Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa, Boston, KC. That takes us back to the first weekend of September, when they took 2 of 3 from Minnesota (slapping around Silva and Garza) at the stadium. The series before that they took 2 of 3 from the Tigers at the Stadium despite being completely shut down by Robertston (hmmm?) and Ledezma. And yes, 70% of their Game One lineup played in those games.

They played 7 games against the Angels in August. Lost 4 of them. And they lost two of three to the White Sox in August. Other than those robust displays, they played Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle and the collapsing, injury-riddled Red Sox.

Let me sum up, since the all-star break, the Yankees have played about 20 games against good teams. And they won about half of those. But this is not a mismatch.

The Tigers haven't played well in the second half (you were expecting that they were going to win 115 games?) but their schedule has been brutal. Since, the all-star break they have played 30 games against teams that won 90 (!!!) games or more. Yikes. The Yankees have played 12. Twelve.

The five best teams since the Break were MIN, OAK, NYY, LAA, CLE. Detroit has played 25 games (out of 74) against those teams.
The five worst teams since the Break were TB, BAL, KC, CHI, BOS. The Yankees played those teams 41 times (out of 76).

And the Tigers have had the tougher schedule for the season as a whole. And despite that they have a better pythag.

Frankly, I don't know if the Yankees are good or not. They won 97 games in a very weak division. The Tigers won 95 games in, perhaps, the strongest division in history.
   36. Anthony Giacalone Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:15 PM (#2195723)
I feel more worried about the Tigers pitching and defense if they hadn't been a sub-.500 team for the last two months.

Completely understandable. But do you recall who the Yankees played in the second half of the season? Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa, Boston, KC. That takes us back to the first weekend of September, when they took 2 of 3 from Minnesota (slapping around Silva and Garza) at the stadium. The series before that they took 2 of 3 from the Tigers at the Stadium despite being completely shut down by Robertston (hmmm?) and Ledezma. And yes, 70% of their Game One lineup played in those games.

They played 7 games against the Angels in August. Lost 4 of them. And they lost two of three to the White Sox in August. Other than those robust displays, they played Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle and the collapsing, injury-riddled Red Sox.

Let me sum up, since the all-star break, the Yankees have played about 20 games against good teams. And they won about half of those.

The Tigers haven't played well in the second half (you were expecting that they were going to win 115 games?) but their schedule has been brutal. Since, the all-star break they have played 30 games against teams that won 90 (!!!) games or more. Yikes. The Yankees have played 12. Twelve.

The five best teams since the Break were MIN, OAK, NYY, LAA, CLE. Detroit has played 25 games (out of 74) against those teams.
The five worst teams since the Break were TB, BAL, KC, CHI, BOS. The Yankees played those teams 41 times (out of 76).

And the Tigers have had the tougher schedule for the season as a whole. And despite that they have a better pythag.

Frankly, I don't know if the Yankees are good or not. They won 97 games in a very weak division. The Tigers won 95 games in, perhaps, the strongest division in history. But this is not a mismatch.
   37. Anthony Giacalone Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:16 PM (#2195727)
arg. stupid double post.
   38. Cutter Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:23 PM (#2195745)
The Tigers won 95 games in, perhaps, the strongest division in history.
In central history.

The Tigers played tough teams but also got swept by the Royals. And even worse, it was a meaningful series for the Tigers and meant nothing for the Royals.
   39. Joe Bivens, Ditch Digger Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:38 PM (#2195788)
One positive about the Red Sox season that the Yankees won't be able to also say about their season is that the Red Sox won their final game of the year.
   40. chemdoc Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:39 PM (#2195791)
The Tigers played tough teams but also got swept by the Royals. And even worse, it was a meaningful series for the Tigers and meant nothing for the Royals.

It's debatable how meaningful Jim Leyland thought the series was. He didn't think it was meaningful enough to have someone other than Zach Miner pitch last Saturday. He felt "resting" Verlander for the playoffs was more important than winning that game.
   41. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:41 PM (#2195800)
One positive about the Red Sox season that the Yankees won't be able to also say about their season is that the Red Sox won their final game of the year.

Plus, think of all the characters Schilling can build in World of Dungeon Masters.
   42. Buddha Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:42 PM (#2195801)
Anthony's post was so nice, he had to post it twice.

Keep it up Anthony, you're giving me unwarranted hope.

Only the DRays and Cubs were worse than the Tigers since the middle of August.

Obviously, part of the pitching is defense, where the Tigers have been just phenomenal this season. Their entire infield has been extrarodinary. Shelton and Casey led the AL in ZR. So, did Inge. So, did Palanco. And, Guillen was third among AL SS in ZR. You don't want to see the Yankee fielders in ZR. Believe me. In the outfield, the Tigers were more ordinary but still much better than the Yankees overall. Much, much better. In fact, the only position on the field where the Yankees aren't completely overmatched by Detroit, fielding-wise, is centerfield, where they are just a bit worse.

Buddha dismisses the comparison, but, frankly, if there is a team more like the 2005 White Sox (built upon the foundation of power, pitching and defense) than the Tigers, I can't imagine it.


First, I don't care what ZR, R, RZ, Rz2, WARP29 or any of them say, Chris Shelton is NOT a good fielder. He's average. He's helped a lot by having Polanco next to him. I watched Shelton play all year, he's good at getting balls that are hit to him, but not good at going to get balls that aren't. He doesn't scoop up balls that are thrown low well, and he doesn't stretch at first base on the close plays. He's a catcher playing out of position at first, and it shows if you watch him. Casey is a better fielder.

Guillen is Jose Valentin from a few years ago. He'll get to balls, but he'll make a lot of errors on routine plays.

As JRE and Shredder have said, these Tigers remind me more of the 2000 White Sox than the 2006 White Sox. They backed in, weren't ready and are probably going to get smoked.
   43. Шĥy Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:53 PM (#2195829)
The Yankees' starting nine cost them 4 runs.

This is why I think you are underrating the effect of defense. I believe the Yankee defense is much worse than that. The only player in that starting nine who should be expected to be above average is Damon. There are many terrible fielders in the lineup. Jeter, Sheffield, and Matsui should be over -30 by themselves.
   44. Anthony Giacalone Posted: October 03, 2006 at 02:56 PM (#2196009)
Keep it up Anthony, you're giving me unwarranted hope.

Heh. I've had a soft spot for the Tigers since before spring training when I predicted that they'd win 90 games and the wild card. Everyone around here laughed at me. More than usual even. In Lakeland, I stunned Tigers fans by thinking that Detroit was going to be one of the better teams in the AL this season. So, I may be biased.

JRE may be right; these may be the 2000 White Sox. But that doesn't alter my contention that this will be a competitive series. People remember that 2000 Sox vs. Ms series as a 3-0 sweep, but that whole series came down to one bad inning in game one by Keith Foulke and one great, out-of-character start by Aaron Sele (he only had seven comparable games in 35 starts that season) in game three. One game was extra innings, another was a 2-1 game. Hardly a rout.

One bad inning by a Yankee reliever and one great, out-of-character start by a Tiger starter and this series goes against the Yankees.
   45. SG in ATL Posted: October 03, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#2196180)
This is why I think you are underrating the effect of defense. I believe the Yankee defense is much worse than that.


And yet, they were second in the league in defensive efficiency somehow.
   46. Buddha Posted: October 03, 2006 at 03:56 PM (#2196194)
I think that tells you more about defensive efficiency than it does about the Yankees.
   47. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: October 03, 2006 at 04:00 PM (#2196202)
One bad inning by a Yankee reliever and one great, out-of-character start by a Tiger starter and this series goes against the Yankees.
Sure. But we knew that going in, didn't we? I'm not sure what you're trying to make here. If it's that the Tigers deserve to be given more credit and more of a chance, I think everyone basically agrees you're right, espcially as no one (least of all their Primate fans) are giving the Tigers any chance at all. But you've been all over the map, from the idea that the Tigers need to catch a bad inning and a get an otherworldly start to win to the idea that you "don't know if the Yankees are good or not," which seems all over the map to me.

I guess that's a very verbose way of saying, what do you figure the Tigers chances are? I'd put them in the 37.5-45% range, but I can't see going much higher.
   48. SG in ATL Posted: October 03, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#2196258)
I think that tells you more about defensive efficiency than it does about the Yankees.


True. DE is as much about your pitching as your defense. The Yankees are tied for the lowest LD% in the league, and were tied for the second highest % of fly balls, which are more likely to be outs.

ZR had the Yankees as a team at -27 runs saved above average. MGL posted that they were a -19 by UZR. As sad as it is, this is probably the strongest defensive team the Yankees have fielded since 2000 or 2001.

Posada had one of his best defensive years ever, Damon was a plus defender in CF, and they swapped out Bernie's defense with Abreu's and Giambi's with the combination of Guiel/Wilson and now Sheffield. Rodriguez and Jeter weren't good, ZR had them as a combined -13, which is what Jeter was by UZR all by his lonesome. Cano was a touch above average (+2) by ZR, and well above average by UZR (+10). Granted, you can't ignore the past histories for all these guys and just look at this year's performance, but I'm not as worried about the defense this season as I've been the last few years.

All that being said, if they have to rely on their defense to win games, they're going to be royally ######. They'll have to bash to win. I think this will be a fun series. I've been pulling for Detroit all year. I'd hate to see the Yankees lose, but losing to the Tigers would not be nearly as painful as losing to most other teams.
   49. rico vanian Posted: October 04, 2006 at 02:00 PM (#2197463)
doubt Proctor or Farnsworth will be given the opportunity to blow many games close and late


didn't take long for this to be proven wrong...
   50. 1k5v3L Posted: October 10, 2006 at 01:15 AM (#2205411)
I’ll refrain from making a Yanks in ___ games prediction, and just say, that for the past few years, I’ve hoped for good things in the playoffs but this year, I expect them.


So, McNally, still expecting?
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