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— Twenty-four, Twenty-five, Twenty-six.... ?
— Twenty-four, Twenty-five, Twenty-six.... ?
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Jinx!
Ok, this is probably jinxing the hell out of the Yankees--for those of you who buy into that stuff, which includes me--but JC raised an interesting point:
Speaking of [Red Sox] playoff rosters… who doesn’t make the Yankees’? I’m sure eye-chart makes it, Molina makes it, Hughes probably makes it. Who’s out?
Let’s find out…
Let’s look at the locks:
C: Posada, Molina
1B: Giambi, Mientkiewicz
2B: Cano
SS: Jeter
3B: A-Rod
LF: Matsui, Damon
CF: Melky
RF: Abreu
SP: Wang, Pettitte, Clemens
RP: Rivera, Joba, Vizcaino
That’s 17 players who are on the roster today, assuming they don’t get hit by a bus. Persumably someone from the Damon/Matsui/Giambi group will DH, so that spot is filled, if not listed. So the Yankees have eight spots to fill, with the only actual needs being a fourth starter and a back-up who can play somewhere in the infield besides first. Thus:
SP: Mussina
Back-up IF: Betemit
Up to 19. Since no one is going into the playoffs with seven pitchers, they’ll need more of them. At the least that’s two short guys, plus a long reliever..
RP: Farnsworth (I know, I know)
RP: Ramirez
RP: Hughes or Kennedy
That’s 22. Three spots left. Since God knows you can’t have a playoff roster without a lefty, that hole needs to be filled.
LOOGY: Villone
Two spots left. Here’s where things get interesting. The Yankees can either put both Hughes and Kennedy on the roster, plus another pitcher or they could use Duncan as a righty batter of the bench, perhaps hitting for whoever of the three lefties is DHing aganist an Aaron Fultz type. I’m not sure Torre would do that, but I can see him thinking he would do that. So Duncan is on. That means the final spot comes to one of Hughes, Kennedy or, say Brian Bruney. I can’t see Bruney or Britton or whoever pitching their way on the last few weeks. So both the kids are in. Here’s the playoff roster then:
C: Posada, Molina (2)
1B: Giambi, Mientkiewicz (2)
2B: Cano (1)
SS: Jeter, Betemit (2)
3B: A-Rod (1)
LF: Matsui, Damon (2)
CF: Melky (1)
RF: Abreu, Duncan (2)
SP: Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina (4)
RP: Mo, Joba, Vizcaino, Ramirez, Farnsworth, Villone, Hughes, Kennedy (8)
RB in NYC (Now with an Apartment!)
Posted: September 19, 2007 at 09:57 AM | 85 comment(s)
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Me too. If they hadn't changed the rule, I would bring him back, throw a uni on him, call him an "instructor" like the Sox used to do with Johnny Pesky, then let his Bernie-ness suffuse the team
I'm actually pretty indifferent between the 3-6 starters, which in this case is a good thing.
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I think they absolutely take both Hughes and Kennedy.
Gotta go with snapper here. No way they can leave Kennedy off, after the way he's pitched so far. That last game in Toronto was one of the 4 or 5 best Yankee starts of the year.
I surely don't feel that way about the Red Sox, and I can't imagine why any Red Sox fan would.
More importantly, as a Yankee fan I'm not happy that a supposed strength of our pitching staff is its well-balanced mediocrity.
Who else do you have a lot of confidence in right now?
I guess Schilling just because of his history and toughness. Except for Beckett, there is no Red Sox starter who frightens me at all. I think Bos. is at a disadvantage in SP against any of the playoff teams in any game Beckett doesn't start.
Also, as a Yankee fan, I'm happy b/c it's more of well-balanced good to very-goodness. Again with the Yankees' offense it's much more important to have competitive pitching in every game, than lights out pitching in one or two. In a seven game series, the Yanks may be shut down once or twice, but they will score runs. As long as the pitching keeps them in almost every game, they should do well.
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[But] More importantly, as a Yankee fan I'm not happy that a supposed strength of our pitching staff is its well-balanced mediocrity.
JC, you're right in the sense that they don't have a real "ace" in the Guidry or even the late 90's El Duque mold---guys you just knew were going to given you a great start every time they stepped out there in October. Me, I still long for the greatest Big Three they ever had: Reynolds, Raschi and Lopat. That trio made even Ted Williams duck for cover.
But if anyone had told you in April what the overall state of the rotation would be in late September---and if you had also known that the Yanks would be 5 games ahead in the wild card and 2 games behind Boston at this point---you would have been reaching for the butterfly net, wouldn't you? I'm counting my blessings at this point.
Right now it may be the Red Sox who need that butterfly net more than anyone. You been catching any of those games up in Toronto?
I'd agree with that, but I don't think that it's true now. Matsuzaka and Wakefield have been very shaky of late, and Schilling is not far removed from the DL. I like NYY, Ana and Cle. rotations better, right now. Not over the course of the year.
My rotation order in terms of confidence would be Pettitte, Kennedy, Clemens, Wang, Hughes and Mussina, but I agree that none of these are wholly reliable. And what they'll actually do is indeed the great unknown.
But as snapper says, even one of those classic Mussina 5 inning / 95 pitch / 3 runs / 8 hits starts will give the offense a chance to do their thing. And I do think that there's a pretty good chance that half the starts can go into the seventh with four runs or less, which would give the bullpen a bit of much needed rest.
And part of the strength is what snapper also noted: that if one of the starters gets ko'd early, if you can get him out of there in time, you can replace him with an equal starter for long relief and you're still in the game. I'd rather see Mussina coming out of the pen than Villone or Farnsworth---but the key may well be the quickness of the hook, since all of these starters (well, not yet with Kennedy) can get ugly on very short notice and put you out of it before you can blink.
I think this is a great point Andy.
Joe should be operating on a very quick hook with EVERYONE. We know they all can throw up a real stinker at any time. If you can limit the damage to 2 IP 3 R, they have the arms to win the game. The pulled starter can always come back on short rest, either to start or be the long man for somebody else.
They never would have won that 2003 ALCS game 7 without Mussina holding the Sox scoreless for those middle 3 innings, after he'd lost 2 games with about a 5.00 ERA in two earlier starts. Those may well have been his best 3 innings in a Yankee uniform.
seriously? sounds like someone has small-sample-size-itisas well as short-term-memory-itis. Didn't Boston's starters limit the Yankees to what, 7 runs in 3 games last weekend? The Doctor recommends a few doses of long-term reality medicine. The Yankees looked pretty silly "right now" in Sep 2000, didn't they, and they did OK in the playoffs.
CLEV - Carmona and Sabathia both pithcing over their heads. They are really more like 3.7 ERA guys.
ANA/LA - Ditto Lackey and Escobar
I mean, Bos' rotation isn't all that great, but when you add in their bullpen (if we're talking about who is pitching well now, Buchholz should be added in as ace set-up man, right?), their pitching I think obviously trumps the Indians and Angels. Plus their offense, if Manny and Youkilis are healthy, is better as well. So they lost a pile of close games in the last month; I really doubt GAG-ME will be allowed to pull much of that in October. The Yankees' offense makes them scary, but ranking the Yankees rotation above the Red Sox is kinda silly.
They really didn't look all that great in the playoffs either.
I'd rather finish second and win the World Series than finish first and not win it all, but making up 14 1/2 games means that this season was a good memory, regardless of how it ends.
Andy (or whoever), which one of these guys was the best? Looking at their numbers over those 6 or so seasons they were all together, it's really hard to tell. They each have their strengths. I'm guessing that someone who was around at the time might have a better read on this.
seriously?
Seriously. It's an opinion, and I could be wrong. I'm only talking SP; I don't see Cle and Ana enough to know their pens (though Ana has a history of being excellent).
But Lackey, Escobar, (Good) Weaver, and Saunders are clearly better than the sox top 4. (Do any of them even have an ERA over 4?).
Sabathia and Carmona have been absolutely lights out, clearly better than Beckett/Schilling. Westbrook and Byrd are serviceable and very similar to Matsuzaka and Wakefield rigth now.
My 2 cents
If we're talking about who is pitching well now, then maybe we shouldn't talk about guys who haven't pitched in two weeks. Will they even put him on the post-season roster? (Note: not should they, but will they?)
And I would be surprised if both Kennedy and Hughes make it. But there remaining starts might justify their roster spots.
Andy (or whoever), which one of these guys was the best? Looking at their numbers over those 6 or so seasons they were all together, it's really hard to tell. They each have their strengths. I'm guessing that someone who was around at the time might have a better read on this.
I saw all three of them many times, including every game of their last three World Series. (School was easy to get out of then come World Series time if you had a kind or gullible Mom.) All three of them were absolute killers against the best teams. All three of them had World Series ERAs about a full run below their regular season marks---and this was against the Dodgers (3 times), the Miracle Giants and the Whiz Kids.
Reynolds won the most games and both started and relieved in all of his World Series.
Raschi won 20 or more games several times and was considered the best big game pitcher of them all.
Lopat was often held out to pitch against the Yanks' big rival, the Indians, and he beat them something like 80% of the time.
Ted Williams said that he couldn't "even imagine" a tougher pitcher than Raschi, who stopped the Sox cold on the last day of 1949 with the pennant on the line. But then he added, "unless it was one of those other two. Especially that f*ck*ng Lopat."
And of course no other team has ever won five straight World Series. If there were a HOF for rotations, they'd be right at the top, even if none of them could really get there by himself.
So I hope you can forgive me for wishing that the Yanks could find the likes of those three again this time around.
They got them, but they are coming out of the pen this postseason
(Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy)
Kidding, sort of.
He's not shriveling, he's hurt. Messing up his shoulder on a bad slide coincides with the start of the slump.
Guys who've seen serious time and figure to be out of the picture (and why)
Andy Phillips (Injured)
Brian Bruney (Unrealiable and apparently out of favor)
Sean Henn (Villone has his spot)
Seriously, that's it. Phillips being hurt eliminated the big question which was him vs. Eyechart. Everyone else who has seen major time for the team (Proctor, Nieves, Cairo) is gone.
Damon could be the PR-type if Joe would use Giambi at DH but that's unlikely to happen these days so I think that's it for that idea.
You're forgiven, though you may be aiming too high. Personally, I'd settle for Cone, Wells, and Hernandez. Or Guidry, Figueroa, and
It's amazing how many Reynolds (and Raschi, and virtually all their SP besides Lopat) walked, though. Casey Stengel must have had some very unusual ideas. It's funny to think that Rick Peterson gets criticized here for being indifferent to the walk, when you see numbers like that. Bill James pointed out that Casey placed a huge emphasis on defenders' double-play ability; seems like he almost had to!
I never got much of a feel for Raschi besides that he was a big mother who threw hard and was clutch. I guess in between that and his stat page, I'd think of Dave Stewart.
Lopat came off like the Andy Pettitte/Jimmy Key type -- probably more like Key in terms of stuff/velocity, but more like Pettitte in terms of results.
Are these impressions about right? It's really interesting to consider how the legacies of players that get passed down compare to the memories of those who were there at the time.
Ugh. You know, I clicked on someone else's link the other day, and outlook opened. I couldn't figure out how that could have happened. Ireally didn't think I'd done anything wrong, to tell you the truth. But it looks like I may have figured it out this time.
The reverse jinx strikes again!
Wasn't just the Yankees though...it was a very high-walk era, for whatever reasons, especially in the AL.
Andy danced around my question of which one was actually the best. Maybe it's as hard to choose as I thought. If pushed, I probably go with Reynolds. He got the most Game 1 WS starts (though his best starts were not in Game Ones), and he could come back and pitch out of the pen.
Has Chris J looked at which one faced the toughest schedule over those years?
no, messing up his shoulder coincided with his explosion of hitting during the Mariners and Royals series. He's just slumping.
In terms of the "best," it's almost impossible to choose among them, though Lopat was usually considered the third among them and Reynolds was the most versatile. By coincidence, I just recently finished a newly published joint biography of the, called Reynolds, Raschi and Lopat, and it may be the best baseball bio I've read in years. There's a ton of interesting info about their salary wars, their playing through repeated injuries, and their relationships with Ford, Berra and Jim Turner.
I find it rather fascinating that although none of them are really even close to being HOF-worthy (mostly because all of them didn't really peak until late and then burned out early), collectively they made up the most accomplished three man rotation in history, at least in terms of what they helped their team accomplish. And if you look up BB-Ref, you'll see that they had absolutely no offensive superstars behind them the way that the Dodgers or Red Sox did. They had a lot of big names, but none of those big names (except Phil Rizzuto) were at their playing peaks during that championship run. They were the heart and soul of the most underrated team in history.
His arm was pretty much shot from overuse and pitching while hurt; Raschi and Lopat were gone; the Yanks had lost out to the Indians; and most important, he was independently wealthy from his investments in the oil business. By the end of 1954 Reynolds didn't need the money---his baseball salary had essentially become chump change.
Mantle had a couple good years in there.
When not hurt, Joe D could play a little.
Yogi seemed to handle the bat a little, too.
In none of those five years did the Yankees have one player who led the AL in any major offensive category. That pretty much summarizes my point, which is that the heart of that team was the Big Three.
Britton is way too young to be so obese. Sir, you are a professional athlete. Please slice off your stomach.
Has Chris J looked at which one faced the toughest schedule over those years?
Oh boy . . .- oh there it is - AOWP by year when they were teammates together, 1948-53:
1948:
Raschi .500
Lopat .498
Reynolds .478
1949:
Reynolds .503
Raschi .483
Lopat .478
1950:
Lopat .505
Raschi .483
Reynolds .468
1951:
Raschi .510
Lopat .500
Reynolds .483
1952:
Raschi .490
Lopat .490
Reynolds .485
1953:
Lopat .493
Raschi .492
Reynolds .447
Total:
Lopat: .494 in 167 GS
Raschi .493 in 191 GS
Reynolds .480 in 161 GS
As for Dr. Tightpants, a.k.a. Kyle Farnsworth, I hope he does see the postseason. He's always good for a few a runs for "our" side. ;-)
That Reynolds thing is actually pretty damn low under the circumstances. With sample sizes of 160+ GS, you're not going to find too many pitchers 20 points off.
I wonder if that was purposeful.
Good God lord almighty yes. That's the thing with leveraging - ultimately, it's hard to have even modest appearing differences like this wihtout it meaning something. If you thought a guy was poo, well, then he wouldn't get that many starts. And if you think a guy is great, well, you're going to start him 25+ times a year, so he'll face everyone at least twice by and large.
Chris, I don't know if you have the data handy, but did any of them repeatedly face particular teams more than the others? Andy mentions Lopat always beat Cleveland -- did he get more starts against them than the others? Was Reynolds primarily used to shut down Boston or Chicago? etc.
Bill Veeck had a Beat Eddie Lopat night in Cleveland. Not only do I have this, but I can give you the Evil Empire's W/L record when the guys started (note: it's NOT their individual W/L record, but the team's).
Numbers may not add up because it's late:
Lopat should average 23.9 starts against each team. Reynolds 23 exactly. Raschi 27.3. I'll put at the end a percentage - actual starts divided by how many they should've had to give an idea who went against each team:
BoX:
Lopat 13-12 - 105
Rashi 20-13 - 121
Reynolds 17-11 - 122
CWS
Lopat 13-7 - 84
Rashi 19-9 - 103
Reynolds 10-7 - 74
CLE
Lopat 24-11 (4-4 in 1952-3) - 146
Rashi 21-10 - 114
Reynolds 14-12 - 113
DET
Lopat 7-11 - 75
Rashi 14-10 - 88
Reynolds 11-9 - 87
A's
Lopat 14-10 - 100
Rashi 28-8 - 132
Reynolds 10-5 (5-0 in 1952-3) - 65
STB
Lopat 17-5 - 92
Rashi 18-5 - 84
Reynolds 24-5 - 126
WAS
Lopat 18-4-1 - 96
Rashi 9-8 - 62
Reynolds 18-8 - 113
Highest and Lowest scores overall:
Lopat - Cle - 146
Raschi - A's - 132
Reynolds - StB - 126
Reynolds - BoX - 122
Raschi - BoX 121
Raschi - WAS - 62
Reynolds - A's - 65
Reynolds - CWS - 74
Lopat - DET - 75
Lopat - CWS - 84
Raschi - STB - 84
Outta curiousity, McLovin, you know who I am, but who are you?
Farnsworth's role will be to pitch the 7th or 8th inning when the Yankees lead by five or more runs, and create four to six out save situations for Mo.
Britton is way too young to be so obese. Sir, you are a professional athlete. Please slice off your stomach.
He's not an athlete. He's a baseball pitcher.
Bruney has 22 walks to 11 strikeouts in his 24 innings since June. You really want that on your postseason roster?
I am McLovin.
Bruney has 22 walks to 11 strikeouts in his 24 innings since June. You really want that on your postseason roster?
Didn't realize he'd been so bad. Still, I really hate Farnsworth.
Hughes is definitely on with Clemens's health so iffy. I assume Kennedy won't be on given his health issues. So who's the extra pitcher who gets added? Bruney? How about someone who can start or go long in a pinch? Has Igawa made his way on? I'll say yes.
C: Posada, Molina (2)
1B: Giambi, Mientkiewicz (2)
2B: Cano (1)
SS: Jeter, Betemit (2)
3B: A-Rod (1)
LF: Matsui, Damon (2)
CF: Melky (1)
RF: Abreu, Duncan (2)
SP: Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina (4)
RP: Mo, Joba, Vizcaino, Ramirez, Farnsworth, Villone, Hughes, Igawa (8)
Bottom line: NYY are the 2nd best team in MLB this year, & the best after late May, but they are goin down, and goin down hard.
Raises an interesting point, though. If the Red Sox somehow wind up with the best record, do they choose the schedule based on their series, or the other one?
Carmona is 0-1 with a 4.15 (with just 4 Ks) in 2 starts against NY, and Sabathia didn't face the Yankees, but has already thrown 234 innings, when he hasn't thrown 200 since 2002. I don't think these guys are such mortal locks as starters in a short series. That said, Cleveland obviously should maximize them if they can.
This, about the pitcher who has a career 1-7 record, 7.13 ERA against the NYY. He's better than that now (hasn't pitched against the NYY in a few years), but it shouldn't inspire trash talking. The series is likely to be close; if I were betting on it, I'd take whoever is deemed the underdog.
WRT bulpen, yes, extra time off means more IP/game for Joba/Rivera, but also means more for Betancourt (who over far far more innings has better ##s than Joba - 78 KO to 9 BB - and R Perez, whose ERA is barely half of Mo's. Indians' pen is strong. Except for the fact that Borowski will likely allow one 9th inning game-tying home run per series.
I really expected Betancourt to be closing before the year ended...I guess Borowski never had one of those complete meltdown periods in which closers lose their jobs, though, did he?
The combined scores of those six games was NY, 50; Cleveland, 17. And in that last series in August---in Cleveland---it was 22 to 6. In the game Carmona started, he was completely outpitched by Phil Hughes.
Again, anything can happen in the playoffs, but my take on Cleveland's AL-best record is that to a great extent it's more the result of a relatively weaker schedule than anything else.
Has anybody heard anything definite about this? I've been assuming (or hoping) that they've been treating Kennedy like Clemens: Letting him work out but not wanting to risk him in a game that doesn't mean all that much unless they care about winning the division.
In any case, having a healthy Kennedy would be a big factor in the Yanks' postseason chances.
Torre has said that the back trouble ruled him out for the DS, but not necessarily the CS.
This is going to be a tough series for both teams, no question. I can easily see this going the full 5 games.
And those 3 starters presumably are Wang, Pettitte, Clemens (if available)?
So Sardinha, Veras and Ohlendorf are on. No Villone, no Igawa, no Ramirez. No lefty reliever.
Matsui starting game 1. I think that's wise as long as he's healthy.
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