Projecting above average returns for the Bombers?

The Yankees, while not making the huge BJ Ryan or Brian Giles shaped splashes many predicted this offseason, they have been busy nipping and tucking around the edges, rebuilding the soft underbelly of the bullpen and clearing some deadweight.

This has all been for the most part good, and has protected a farm system that needs some TLC – however, what does it do to the on field product? Are the moving parts going to be better than last year’s division winning, 95-win team?

Answering that question is going to be a lot easier in nine months, but who wants to wait that long? With a relative blackout any real meaningful news, I decided to seek an answer.

In tilting at this particular windmill, I left out defense. Why? Well, defensive metrics are tough enough to calculate, let alone project, plus the only real position switches — Johnny Damon for Bernie Williams in center and Jason Giambi taking over as the primary first baseman — are likely to have nominal impacts on the Yanks defensively.

So how do we look at the offense and project it going forward? And how do you use those projections to determine if this year’s Yankee team is going to be better than last year’s?

Let’s tackle the first question first – projections. So far there are just two projections available: Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS and the projections from the Bill James Handbook. ZiPS, as much as I love Dan, seemed to hate the Yankees and lowball a lot of the numbers. The BJH numbers seemed high, so they needed to be balanced. So, I took those two sets of figures, and added in the player’s 162-average and 2005 line from baseballreference.com.

Those four sets of data were thrown in and averaged to create a composite projection, which usually fit neatly between the ZiPS figure and the BJH projection.

That composite was then set next to a player we’ll call “Joe Position” and Joe is the league average for that position and next to a player we’ll call “Yankee Position,” which is the positional average for the Bombers last season.

This is shaping up to be a series, so we’ll start with what should be the opening day lineup, then into the pitching staff and the bench.

That said, let’s go around the horn.

First Base - Jason Giambi

Giambi is the most interesting player to try and guess the future with… his chemical-induced foibles, his injury plagued 2004 and such, he’s the figurative box of chocolates.

The acquisition of Damon and Joe Torre’s distaste for quote-unquote unproven talent, Giambi is likely to see almost all the at bats at first base, so we’ll make him our first baseman for this exercise.

       	  AVG/OBP/SLG         AB   R    H  2B 3B HR    BI   BB   SO 
ZIPS	.250/.401/.488       424  67  106  17  0  28   82   94  106
JAMES   .268/.414/.512       527  91  141  27  0  34  105  132  118
2005	.271/.440/.535       417  74  113  14  0  32   87  108  109
162	.295/.413/.539       565 101  167  34  1  34  113  107  112
COMP    .273/.408/.530       483  83  132  28  0  32   97  110  111

A full, healthy and productive season from Jason is something to cross your fingers and hope for, because it’s pretty bare behind him.

The composite projections is sold, much like the other projections that Giambi’s days as a .300 hitter are over, but his OBP and slugging average should make up for that. I think most fans would take a 30-homer/100-RBI season from the first base position, particularly when compared to …

		         AVG/OBP/SLG    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR   BI   BB   SO 
Joe Firstbase	     .270/.342/.452    608   86  164   31   1  26   95   63  115
Yankee Firstbase    .275/.389/.537     568   95  156   23   0  42  118   96  122

Yikes! Our first baseman was awesome last year! Well, before we get crazy, let’s bear in mind that much of Yankee Firstbase’s production came during the “Tino Bonds” portion of the program. How much of it is attributable to the alien in Tino’s body? Well, consider that between May 3 and May 15 he hit a stunning .368/.435/1.184 with 10 homers and 22 RBIs.

However, look at Giambi’s composite projections versus the league average. Giambi’s good for about 25% more homers, a 17% bump in slugging and a 19% boost in OBP over league average. While its not worth the $18 million he’ll be getting in 2005, if Giambi lives up to that projection, he’ll be a contributor.

Second Base – Robinson Cano

Many fans and writers touted the youthful energy that Robinson brought to the park as a factor in turning the Yankees season around. I wouldn’t go that far, but I will say Cano’s superiority to the departed Tony Womack can’t be overstated and that more than energy and youth contributed to the post-May rebound.

  	       AVG/OBP/SLG       AB    R     H  2B  3B  HR   BI    BB   SO
ZIPS	    .286/.317/.438	587   89   168  29   6  16   80    25   77
JAMES	    .297/.324/.467      612   92   182  41   6  17   79    22   72
2005	    .297/.320/.458      522   78   155  34   4  14   62    16   68
162	    .297/.320/.458      641   96   190  42   5  17   76    20   83
COMP        .294/.319/.455      591   89   174  37   5  16   74    21   75

The normal small sample size projection warnings should apply to Cano, but he’ll probably slot somewhere between his ZiPS and his composite project. A wild card here is improvement in his batting eye and plate discipline. If that happens, he could easily smash all these projections, but I am not holding my breath.

However, even if it doesn’t happen, Cano should provide the Yankees with a young, developing player who is already at worst average.

		           AVG/OBP/SLG      AB   R    H  2B   3B  HR   BI   BB   SO
Joe Secondbase	        .271/.325/.412     609  83  165  33    4  15   72   45  101
Yankee Secondbase      .295/.323/.436      640  89  189  40    4  14   68   23   87

Shortstop – Derek Jeter

Entering his early 30s, Derek Jeter looks like a near mortal lock for Cooperstown, not for his collection of rings and ill-deserved Gold Gloves, but for his numbers. While ZiPS projects Derek to have just his third sub-.300 season in 2006, the rest of the data says otherwise.

  	   AVG/OBP/SLG       AB    R    H  2B   3B   HR   BI   BB   SO
ZIPS	  .299/.368/.442    633  110  189  31    3   18   84   60  108
JAMES	  .305/.382/.453    632  116  193  32    2   19   74   67  112
2005	  .309/.389/.450    654  122  202  25    5   19   70   77  117    
162 	  .314/.386/.461    655  123  206  33    5   18   81   68  116 
COMP	  .307/.374/.455    644  118  198  30    4   19   77   68  113

Another near 200 hit season, another .300+ average and a respectable number of homers for the position, Jeter looks to crank out another season well-above average for the league. You would like to see fewer strikeouts and more walks, but the figures are clear that Jeter superior to the average player and even the above-average player.

		           AVG/OBP/SLG       AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR   BI   BB    SO
Joe Shortstop	       .276/.333/.406       620   85  171  34   4  13   68   50    94
Yankees Shortstop      .303/.385/.439       676  120  205  25   5  19   71   80   122

While overrated among many announcers *cough*TimMcCarver*cough* and fans, Jeter is clearly underrated by many in the stathead world, mostly for being on winning teams and for not being A-Rod. Speaking of …

Third Base – Alex Rodriguez Rodriguez was the best shortstop in baseball and now as a Yankee he’s the best third baseman in the game. Despite his poker, his World Baseball Classic waffling and his alleged inability to come up in a big spot, A-Rod is the engine that drives the Yankee machine, statistically if not metaphorically.

  	  AVG/OBP/SLG      AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR   BI    BB   SO
ZIPS	 .301/.400/.559   621  115  187   27   2  43  130    92  131
JAMES	 .302/.400/.584   615  124  186   31   2  46  127    87  136
2005	 .321/.421/.610   605  124  194   29   1  48  130    91  139  
162	 .307/.385/.577   630  127  193   34   3  44  125    74  129
COMP     .307/.392/.581   581  123  190   30   2  45  128    86  134

You can live with A-Rod’s whiffs, especially when laid against his consistent 40-homer/100-RBI/100-Run seasons. His excellence is really apparent when compared to the league.

		           AVG/OBP/SLG    AB      R     H  2B  3B   HR   BI   BB    SO
Joe Thirdbase	       .266/.328/.418    610     82   162  32   2   19   79   53   117
Yankee Thirdbase       .317/.414/.597    616    122   195  30   1   47  129   88   140

Over the average, A-Rod scores 33% more runs, hits 137% more homers and drives in 62% more runs. Simple put, adjusting for position and such, A-Rod is the best player in baseball.

Leftfield – Hideki Matsui The Yankees’ primary goal this offseason was to re-sign Hideki Matsui, which they did to a four-year, $52 million deal in November.

His reputation probably outstrips the performance, but Lord only knows how much revenue he generates for the team and for just four years, it’s not a terrible deal. Matsui has been remarkably consistent since coming to the States, and that’s reflected in his numbers.

  	AVG/OBP/SLG        AB     R     H   2B   3B   HR   BI   BB   SO
ZIPS	.294/.372/.477    608    98   179   41    2   22  103   75   87
JAMES   .301/.376/.488    621   103   187   42    1   24  114   78   72
2005	.305/.367/.496    629   108   192   45    3   23  116   78   63  
162	.297/.370/.484    611    99   181   40    2   23  110   71   89
COMP    .300/.377/.485    617   102   185   41    2   23  111   76   78

The all the rate stats stay relatively consistent, there’s no real outlier to be found. For a guy with a “flair for the dramatic,” his numbers are awfully dull.

		         AVG/OBP/SLG       AB     R     H   2B  3B  HR   BI    BB   SO
Joe Leftfield	       .277/.333/.433      635   90   176   34   4  19   83    50   99
Yankee Leftfield       .279/.338/.412      646  100   180   32   3  16   84    58   84

Although, when compared to the league average, he’s a decidedly above average “run-producer,” but that’s probably more an effect of batting behind guys with high OBPs than anything else. One thing to note, I have no proof of this, but look at how much Womack, et al took off of the Yanks’ leftfield production last season. Thirty-two points of on-base percentage, 26 points of batting average and 84 points of slugging is just atrocious considering Godzilla played 68% of the available innings in left.

Centerfield – Johnny Damon

This was the Yanks’ big ticket purchase for the year. Damon’s value defensively over Bernie is probably slight, and he does stand the risk of collapse in the out years of his four-year deal, but in 2006, I think it’s fair to say he’ll be an upgrade.

  	   AVG/OBP/SLG      AB     R     H   2B  3B   HR   BI   BB   SO
ZIPS	 .292/.357/.421     606  108   177   27   6   13   82   62   67
JAMES	 .292/.361/.425     633  112   185   35   5   13   73   65   73
2005	 .316/.366/.439     624  117   197   35   6   10   75   53   69
162	 .290/.353/.431     644  112   186   34   8   14   73   62   73
COMP     .300/.353/.435     621  112   186   33   6   13   76   61   71

I suspect, with no basis for it, you’ll see a bit more of an up tick in Damon’s power numbers, but that’s just a wild guess. However, looking at what last year’s Yankee centerfielders did, he’s a tremendous upgrade at the plate.

		              AVG/OBP/SLG    AB    R    H  2B   3B   HR   BI   BB    SO
Joe Centerfield            .268/.323/.400   627   86  168  33    4   14   71   48   102
Yankee Centerfield         .243/.297/.333   622   68  151  31    2    7   60   50    99

Ick. The Yanks, just by adding Damon in 2006 go from decidedly below average to decidedly above average. Though they would be best served batting him second and Jeter first for OBP-related reasons, Damon’s impact on the 2006 Yankees should be significant.

Rightfield – Gary Sheffield

Gary Sheffield is the most terrifying right-handed hitter I’ve ever seen. Not from a production standpoint, but the standpoint of the violence of his swings and the line drives that come off his bat. He’s also aging very, very well.

  	AVG/OBP/SLG        AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR   BI  BB    SO
ZIPS	.271/.371/.468    547   91  148   27   0  27  101  81    67
JAMES   .291/.393/.519    597  107  174   29   1  35  115  80    92
2005	.291/.379/.512    584  104  170   27   0  34  123  76    78  
162	.297/.399/.527    583  104  173   31   2  33  109  95    71
COMP    .287/.377/.497    578  102  166   29   1  30  112  83    77

Another year, another 30 homers, another 100 RBIs and another step toward Cooperstown. Sheffield, though increasingly limited defensively, is still an elite rightfielder in the American League.

		         AVG/OBP/SLG       AB    R     H   2B  3B   HR   BI    BB    SO
Joe Rightfield         .270/.331/.447     615    88   166  31   3   24   89    53   106
Yankee Rightfield      .278/.362/.478      625  105   174  27   1   32  117    76    84

The fact that Sheffield swings as hard as he does at seemingly everything, it amazes me that he walks more than he whiffs. It just boggles my mind.

Catcher – Jorge Posada

Posada’s decline phase is coming, and the Yanks better hope that he holds it at bay for another year or two. His walks were down, as were his RBIs, his homers and his runs scored.

  	    AVG/OBP/SLG     AB      R      H   2B   3B  HR    BI    BB   SO
ZIPS       .254/.358/.424   465     64   118   25    0  18    73    73  100
JAMES      .267/.373/.457   499     72   133   29    0  22    86    80  114
2005	   .262/.352/.430   474     67   124   23    0  19    71    66   94 
162	   .269/.375/.469   544     83   146   33    1  25    96    89  134
COMP       .262/.361/.446   496     72   130   28    0  21    82    77  111

Posada, even a declining Posada, is better than league average at the plate.

    	          AVG/OBP/SLG    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR    BI    BB   SO
Joe Catcher		.256/.313/.387   587  69  150   29   0  16    71    45  101
Yankee Catcher	        .239/.317/.393   582  75  139   27   0  21    79    66  115

Again, the weakness of the Yankee bench is apparent here as John Flaherty just crushed the 2005 line for Yankee catchers. Congratulations Red Sox!

Designated Hitter – Bernie Williams

As of this writing, Bernie Williams is penciled in as the Yankees DH. Bernie’s defensive deficiencies caused the Yanks to go out and get Johnny Damon who at this point is both an offensive and defensive upgrade on the fading great. In 2006, things don’t look much better for Bernie.

  	  AVG/OBP/SLG     AB      R     H     2B  3B  HR    BI   BB   SO
ZIPS    .241/.332/.362    494    62   119     22   1  12    63   68   75
JAMES	.273/.362/.430    414    64   113     21   1  14    61   56   68
2005	.249/.321/.367    485    53   121     19   1  12    64   53   75
162	.298/.384/.480    620   108   185     35   5  23   100   86   97     
COMP    .268/.353/.414    503    72   135     24   2  12    72   66   79

Now, Bernie’s 162-game average does a ton to lift his composite projection and it shows just how great a player he was and how far he’s fallen. How far has he fallen, well, look at what Yankee DH’s and the league did in 2005:

		             AVG/OBP/SLG      AB     R     H    2B  3B   HR    BI   BB   SO
Joe DesignatedHitter	  .259/.336/.440     568    80   147    30   2   23    87   63  117
Yankee DesignatedHitter	  .258/.366/.452     547    78   141    19   0   29   108   85  114

Looking at that, there is just one conclusion we can draw: Bernie Williams is not an adequate designated hitter. Some say that Bernie might get an offensive bounce by not expending himself in the field, I doubt this is true, but stranger things have happened.

With established big bats like Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas still on the market, the Yanks would do well to acquire another hitter to absorb some of those at bats. Andy Phillips could take up some slack, but the standard Joe Torre rules apply. The team should also thing about bringing up an organizational banger like a Mitch Jones or even a Shelley Duncan up for a look.

Conclusions

Based on the figures, the Yanks should be at least average at eight positions in the batting order. There are as many as seven positions where the Bombers should be above average, but one position – designated hitter – where the team will be sorely below average. The major moves on the offensive side: bringing back Matsui and signing Damon helped the team strengthen or at least hold fast in three positions in order, but the failure to bring in another quality bat leaves a large hole at DH.