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Count the Rings™
— Twenty-four, Twenty-five, Twenty-six.... ?
— Twenty-four, Twenty-five, Twenty-six.... ?
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Now batting the third baseman, Number ….
... Thirteen, Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez.
No, this isn’t going to be about how A-Rod is a weasel, or how his agent is a louse. Those things have been written about ad nauseum.
I was looking around the Yankee blogosphere today when I should have been working and saw something that led me to believe there’s a chance that not only will A-Rod be back at third for the Yankees next season, but that it might be for the long term AND everyone comes out saving a little face.
From Peter Abraham’s LoHud Blog:
The Yankees do in fact have the right to offer Alex Rodriguez arbitration. Cashman said they would and that they would receive compensation in the form of draft picks.
So the Yankees will have a number of picks in the first part of the draft next June.
The emphasis added there is mine.
You may be saying - yeah, and, big whoop. Well let’s hop in the Wayback Machine Mr. Peabody, back to the heady days of 2002. The Yankees have been bounced by the Angels, who went on to win the World Series and the Atlanta Braves are in the process of untangling themselves from Time Warner’s corporate ownership and slashing payroll.
The Braves were negotiating with free agent-to-be Greg Maddux, and had offered him arbitration to keep the window open (in those days, teams that didn’t offer arbitration couldn’t bring a guy back until May 31, a rule that’s since been changed).
Maddux and Atlanta couldn’t come to terms on a long-term deal and it looked like he was gone - especially based on his agent’s posturing. However, unable to find the right price, the pair unexpectedly accepted Atlanta’s arbitration, leading to an awkward situation with payroll and too many pitchers (the Braves handled this by dealing Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada, a deal that worked out surprisingly well for them).
So, this brings us to our current situation where most people seem to feel the following to some degree:
1) The Yankees, in the short-term at least, would be better off with Rodriguez in the lineup.
2) Scott Boras is more likely to find a big deal for Rodriguez if the Yankees are in the bidding, which they aren’t right now. And in fact, he may not find the big deal he is seeking at all.
So what happens next month if Rodriguez Inc. hasn’t found the mega-deal they are seeking?
Well, what if they accept the Yankees invitation to the arbitration table? A one-year deal, at $28 or $29 million, gives Boras and A-Rod a chance to perhaps mend fences in New York, lets Cashman, etc. say “Hey, he accepted, what could we do?” and while its awkward, maybe enough happens next year to convince both sides that a marriage of convenience is best for all sides.
Far-fetched? Perhaps, but who knows, its as much a possibility as anything right now.
Oh, and Maddux’s agent in 2002 Scott Boras.
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all things are possible but seems this only happens if Boras really misread the market and AROD is fine with returning to the Yankees. Why would AROD/Boras walk away from 3/$81 to end up accepting 1/$28-30 (and it's not clear to me AROD even gets that in arb)? And if nobody's interested this offseason coming off a career year, how many are going to be interested next offseason when he's a year older and probably "slumping"? It seems this would be a huge "loss of face" for Boras/AROD.
It may well end up being what happens, but only if Boras really screwed this up (or the owners collude).
I see AROD holding out and playing for Newark. :-)
We need a ZIPS line from Dan on A-Rod in Newark.
Does this mean you'd be shocked if there wasn't tampering?
Given the number of tampering cases that have been successfully pursued, this doesn't seem farfetched to me at all. What exactly is the disincentive for teams?
He probably felt that the best way to get his maximum payday was to opt out, and get the Yankees to bid on him somehow. There's no good way to pull that off, but perhaps the *best* way was to opt out before they even started negotiating. The team would possibly be less willing to bid if they made an offer and it was rejected before he opted out.
If I were the Yankees, I would let Boras know that they'll take A-Rod back, but only on their terms. They aren't going to negotiate with him. But if Boras calls them and says, "He'll sign right now for this much and this long", and they like the contract, they'll sign. But they won't negotiate, they won't be used to drive up the price.
Because, c'mon, if A-Rod will come back for what they consider to be a fair price for them, they've gotta take it. $30 million off the table is one thing, but ultimately he still is Alex Rodriguez.
Not to mention that a team may(would very likely?) be willing to go even higher per year if they don't have to take on the risk of an 8 year+ deal?
Would BOS/ANA/anyone else be willing to sign A-Rod if the price were 130 over 4? I would imagine so. That would still earn A-Rod an extra 16.5 mil over the 3 years he voided, along with a bonus 4th guaranteed season at 32.5 mil. Or to look at it another way, by opting out early he would essentially get a 4th year guaranteed at 49 mil (total improvement to his existing contract combined with the guaranteed 4th year).
This is 99.9999 percent likely to come from a multi-year deal offered by a team in free agency. If he got no offers and accepted arbitration, he would probably get $35 million there, too.
And I can't say I particularly blame him for wanting out. Christ, all that pressure was making his hair turn blonde. That must have embarrassed him to no end.
Well, Ramon Castro hit 343/448/492 as the Bears' shortstop in 2007, so...do the math...
If A-rod & Boras have misjudged the market to such a degree that the Yanks extension offer minus the Texas money looks better than their other offers, maybe that scenario comes into play. The Yanks should be willing to still offer what they were originally willing to pay. But that doesn't address the clear indications that A-Rod really prefers to play elsewhere. I don't think he'd have painted himself into his current corner if that wasn't the case. Since he can afford to be flexible on money, he can probably find a deal that allows him to play someplace he prefers, while still being the highest paid MLB player even if its for somewhat less than Boras touted.
Dan does it far more accurately than I ever could.
Do you realize how hard it is to hit .800 at any level?
.650/.900/2.100
;-)
I don't see that, either; baseball teams still have money to spend and Rodriguez stands out like a skyscraper over everyone else on the market. He's never going to get a bigger contract than he'll be able to get right now. The accepting-arbitration idea is interesting, but no good.
2008 $30
2009 $30
2010 $35 (player opt out clause)
2011 $35
2012 $40
2013 $40 (player opt out clause)
2014 $45
2015 $45
2016 $50
2017 $50
2018 $50 (team option)
2019 $50 (team option)
This way Boras can present it as a 12 year, $500 million deal. I think if any team is likely to sign such a deal, it would be the Tigers that would be most likely.
2008 $30
2009 $30
2010 $30
2011 $35 (player opt out clause)
2012 $35
2013 $35
2014 $35
2015 $40
followed by the following absurd team option:
2016 $50
2017 $50
Then it looks like 10 years, $370 million, but it's really 8/270, which, depending on how bidding goes, Rodriguez might be able to get to.
However, Bora$ made noise about wanting Rodriguez to get a cut of team network revenues, and may be serious about some form of percentage-of-revenues or even percentage-of-ownership as a central part of a contract.
Bottom line is, don't underestimate $cott Bora$. When he works himself into a new/unique situation--and this one certainly qualifies--he has a talent for coming up with something mindblowing. Those of us who think Rodriguez is going to get a nice, simple, 7/220 with an option or two are likely to be surprised.
Except for those pesky little rules that MLB has about that.
Other than Boras' pronouncements, is there any reason to think teams are going to pay A-Rod $30M - $35M per year into his 40s? If A-Rod is worth that much, shouldn't a lot of other players be headed to the $20M/year & $25M/year lines?
Didn't Torre teach us that one year deals are a grave insult?
And Bora$ has a real knack for finding loopholes. He'll come up with something nobody is expecting.
He's not the best player in baseball. He's also not likely to give you the same production he gave last year. He's also 32 next year. He might be worth it for the next two years, it would have been nice if the Yankees have signed him, but A-rod will as overpaid as Soriano. His contract will be better then the ones signed to middling players like Pierre or Zito, but anyone expecting the best player in baseball for more then maybe a year out of this contract is going to be sorely disappointed.
Yes. It's nearly impossible to prove and I doubt Boras cares one bit about the ethics of it. Does anyone think the Red Sox started talking to him about Drew only after he had opted out?
Texas made him such a ridiculous offer, he had to be crazy to turn it down. But when he found he did not like it, he was ready to take a pay cut, in order to get to Boston. Only the objections of the MLBPA stopped that from happening.
The way A-Rod handled the opt-out, it is pretty damn obvious that he wants out of NY. The only thing keeping him saying so is he need to always say "the right thing" to everyone.
Does anyone doubt that he will make at least as much as he would have, playing for the Yankees? Coming off that year, and with the general increase in revenues, he is in line for an excellent pay day, plus he gets to Escape from New York.
So long, A-Rod. Don't let the turnstile hit you in the ass on the way out.
I just don't see that. Granted, FA arb is a bit of a mystery since it's rarely happened and the only remotely comparable case is Maddux. But still, arb awards are based on comparisons.
Hmmm...some funky salary numbers at b-r. They have AROD at just $22.7 M, behind Giambi at $23.4. But let's use $24 M as the second highest salary. And fine, the arbitrator decides AROD's the best player in the game ... but $11 M better than the #2 player (who granted, isn't that good anymore but...)?
So if I have an available payroll of, say, $125 million--which, truthfully, not only the Red Sox have, but the Angels and Dodgers and Cubs and Mets could probably spend that much too
I'll be proven wrong no doubt, but I still just don't see how anyone is going to offer him that kind of money ... unless revenues have just gone stupid. In the case of the Cubs and the Mets, he's just not that good of a fit. Yes, finding a spot for AROD is a problem we'd all love to have, but it's not necessarily a problem I'd want to pay 8/$280 to create. Red Sox are a good fit. As to the Angels, I really haven't the slightest idea what their revenue picture is like -- are they really rivalling the Dodgers now? The Dodgers are a good fit if AROD thinks they'll compete though this doesn't seem like a Coletti type move does it? 5/$80 for Lowell seems like a Coletti move. :-)
Does anyone think the Red Sox started talking to him about Drew only after he had opted out?
Even if there is tampering, no I don't think they talk directly to each other. I suspect Theo muses to someone he knows will pass along the info to Boras. Say, Gammons. :-)
But I'm not sure tampering is all that necessary. Didn't we all know that Drew was the Red Sox kind of player? Didn't we know they had a hole in the OF to fill (unlike say, the Yanks, who even felt they needed to unload Sheffield) and plenty of money? Did any of us think of the Red Sox as likely players for Soriano or (ugh) Lee? Seems to me that wasn't a hard fit to find. What we didn't know was whether the market was going to expand enough that Drew would see a big enough raise, especially given his injury history. That's one way Mr. Boras earns his money.
There is no way he gets 35 in arbitration. Unique case, and coming off an MVP, they would probably give him a bump up from his 25 or so, but no way it gets to 30. Not a chance.
isn't that what they said to joe torre?
Yes. And I presume they will get the same answer.
I didn't say it was the most likely outcome, just a possible one - and one I hadn't seen anyone else consider, at least publicly.
Honest question Darren - where might you think A-Rod lands? I'm just curious.
Boras is extremely good at getting top dollar for his clients. He has shown some creativity in maximizing his clients' opportunities to exploit market forces with opt-outs and such. But when has he ever pulled off anything that remotely resembled forcing MLB to change its rules?
It's nearly impossible to prove and I doubt Boras cares one bit about the ethics of it.
I suspect that blatant tampering wouldn't be all that hard to prove if someone was willing to rat out the perps. And the one person who would care about it is Boras. If it were proven, what would it cost the team involved? A hefty fine and a draft pick maybe? But Boras would never be allowed to represent a player again.
And I hope my smiley made clear that calling you nuts was all in good fun.
He made MLB tie up this loophole:
Huh? He was the best player in 2007, wasn't he?
He may not be the best player in the game every year for the next three or four years, say, but I do think he has as good a chance as anyone to hold that title in each of those years. After that, maybe Hanley or Wright or whomever becomes more likely.
And was very middle of the pack in 06. He's not a good defender anymore, you're going to be hard pressed to be the best player in baseball if you're a below average defender. And he's not going to put up historically great seasons for a third baseman every year. If he settles in at his career rate, he's Chipper Jones with better baserunning. Chipper Jones is awesome, once he was even the best player in the NL, he's a no doubt Hall of Famer. But he was never the highesst paid player in the game.
Anyway, Pujols is better. Utley probably is too.
USA Today has AROD "down" in 2007 as well, I think it's the way his deal was structured...
Anyway, since no player has ever made more in a year than ARod was scheduled to make in 2008-2010- 27mm per year and you'd be hard pressed to convince someone that he was worth twice Vlad or Pujols or even Berkman- plus whiel Boras could claim that AROD increases revenue and whatnot the Yankees could haul in huge compendium of BBWAA member's writing calling him a choking dog and noting that his teams do worse when he arrives and better when he left...
If Boras was dumb enough to ask for 35 Mil in Arb (and the New Yorker noted that he usually loses in Arb- usually because the arb's think he overreaches) the Yankees would probably win by offering 25mm (Hey it's 10% more than what he made in 2007- and that would KILL Boras- it'd be less than he would ahve made if he hadn't opted out.
...If ARod went to Arb I'm guessing Boras asks for 30mm- he'll say its what the Yankees were willing to pay.
Plus $4M deferred. Owed by Texas. Payable in 2017, I believe.
I'll give you Pujols. Not Utley. Not until he repeats what he did this year. A-Rod has had OPS+'s of 160 or above five times, two of those were over 170, and he had another year at 158.
Utley's great, he's a few years younger, and he's a better defender. But there's a pretty considerable gap in offensive production, whether you're looking at career numbers, last three years, or just last season. Does Utley's glove make up all of that?
Also, Utley didn't have his first great year until he was 26. A-Rod, meanwhile, has been great since he was 20. I remember reading somewhere (can't remember where) that all-time great players tend to age better. If there's any truth to that, it certainly brightens A-Rod's projections. I'm not sure Utley is in that category.
Do you realize how hard it is to hit .800 at any level?
Not nearly as hard as hitting .800 with a 1.000 OBP.
I think it makes up a good 15 runs of that. I don't know what the positional adjustment is, not that it is likely to be all that big. Over the last three years, Utley is roughly a 130-135 OPS+ guy with superlative baserunning and superlative defense at 2nd. A-rod is, right now a 160(?) OPS+ guy with superlative baserunning (I think these two might be the best baserunners in baseball, A-rod's baserunning was truly remarkable to watch last year) and below average defense at third. Edge A-rod. I think A-rod is not going to put up a 160 or greater OPS+ next year and I think, if he settles back at his career rate, while Utley continues at his current pace, which I think is a likely scenario given the age and A-rod's recent inconsistency year to year, that Utley will be the better player.
If it's true what I saw somewhere about each team earning enough from MLB.com to essentially pay A-Rod, then yeah, revenues have gone pretty silly...
And there will be no opt-out clauses in A-Rod's next deal, I don't think, because they're selling his record run at the tail end, after all.
Yanks can take that money they planned on spending and get a great starting pitcher, good 3rd baseman and be more competive in the long run.
How come reaching on an error doesn't count in OBP? You got on base, didn't you? If a sacrifice is a minus in OBP, then I think an error should be a plus. My statistical thought of the week.
I think it would be very funny, personally. If the Red Sox, who will already be favored without him, don't win the World Series next year with him, the hijinks will be well worth the price of admission.
Maybe because it's supposed to measure batting success? How come reaching on a fielder's choice doesn't count in OBP? I mean, you reached base, didn't you? The fact that some other guy was put out shouldn't count against you, should it?
Actually, I'm not sure it should. But I see the point on a FC for excluding it. HBP goes into OBP, but HBP is by definition not the batter's fault/credit since he is supposed to try and avoid getting hit. What's the explanation for that? Errors are often attributable to a hard-hit ball, hustle, etc. All to the batter's credit.
And if "batting success" is the measure then I would think you would not be penalized in the stat for an intentional sacrifice that was successfully executed.
I have always thought reaching on an error should be at least measured as a non-at bat.
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