Posada is under-rated, IMO

Just for fun, I took a look at all active catchers with over 2,000 PA in their careers; Posada is behind only Mike Piazza and the saber-friendly Jason Kendall for OBP:

CAREER based on 2,000 PA
All catchers

OBP
1 Mike Piazza .383
2 Jason Kendall .382
3 Jorge Posada .375
4 Jason Varitek .350
5 Ivan Rodriguez .343
6 Gregg Zaun .342
7 Javier Lopez .340
8 Mike Lieberthal .339
9 Paul Lo Duca .339
10 Damian Miller .332


For me, this was the clincher: All time career OBP for catchers with over 3,500 at bats. Posada ranks 8th all-time.

CAREER
MODERN (1900-)
All catchers

OBP
1 Mickey Cochrane .419
2 Wally Schang .396
3 Roger Bresnahan .385
4 Mike Piazza .383
5 Jason Kendall .382
6 Bill Dickey .382
7 Rick Ferrell .378
8 Jorge Posada .375
9 Gabby Hartnett .370
10 Spud Davis .369

Pretty good game for a guy that Bill Madden and Jon Heyman said should be cut loose so the Yankees could sign Bengie Molina.

FWIW, Posada has always been this Yankee-hater's favorite Yankee.


although I also like Mary-Anno. oh, and Moose, but that's because of what he did pre-stripes.

OTSUKA THEATRE!!!!!!

I so want this to catch on. I so do.

Of course, hardtrain's list brings up Posada HOF chances.

The career list is impressive (Piazza, Cochrane, Dickey, and Harnett are three of the 8 or so best MLB catchers of all time) but there are some other guys that I didn't expect to see there. Rick Ferrell is on most every list of undeserving HOFers that I have seen. Roger Bresnahan is on a lot of those lists, though I think he is has a much better case (for instance JAWS usage of WARP3 kills players from Bresnahan's era) than Ferrell and is a guy that could go either way.

But Spud Davis? Jason Kendall is not a HOFer but will probably get some votes and Wally Schang was a great hitter for a catcher who has some support over in the Hall of Merit.

It will be interesting to see where Posada stands when his career is over but he does have more power than a lot of those guys, though he isnt' great defensively. My initial impression is that he is not a HOFer but is going to be pretty close. He is more in the Munson/Howard range for Yankee catchers than Berra/Dickey.

In fact, he does remind me of Howard a little, got started late for reasons partially beyond his control and he has been splendid since taking over. He doesn't really have the peak but if he continues for a few more years he will pass Elston in my mind.

Obviously, it's great to win that game, to snatch victory, etc, especially scoring 14 runs with Giambi, Sheffield and Matsui all DNPs. But isn't this game, for a Yankee fan, almost as troubling as it is satisfying? I mean, Chacon got rocked, Mariano almost got the loss, Proctor was hit hard. It's a nice respite from what looked like a possible losing streak, and I'm of course disappointed in what happened as a Red Sox fan, but this doesn't seem like big celebratory fare.

I don't want to take away from the Posada lovefest, but my top 8 that I referred to are Bench, Berra, Cochrane, Piazza, Harnett, Fisk, Dickey, Carter, probably in that order but not necessarily. And of course Josh Gibson has as much of a claim to being the greatest catcher ever as any of those guys.

But isn't this game, for a Yankee fan, almost as troubling as it is satisfying?

No.

Bernie and then Matsui were always the favorites of the yankee-haters I know...definitely not Posada.

Chacon is Teh Awesome.

™™™

some real good analysis there, sj.

I so want this to catch on. I so do.

it won't. sorry.

I am a fan, not an analyst.

My first thought, when Posada held after Tex ran him over, was of my grandfather, and the constant arguements we have about his worth or (worthlessness, in his case).

So I called him today and had a nice chat, good times.

But isn't this game, for a Yankee fan, almost as troubling as it is satisfying?

Sometimes, players get shelled, Chacon got shelled. Also, Mo gave up a run, he has never finished a season with a 0.00 ERA. It happens.

This is a game they should have lost, and they did not, and despite their record, there have not been many of those yet this year.

Re-post 7: I'd take Piazza over all of them.

Mike Piazza was to catching like David Ortiz is to catching.

some real good analysis there, sj

Fortunately you showed up to fill in the gaps with your trenchant analysis.

Posada's OPS+ so far is 137, after dipping to 105 last season. He's hitting better so far than he has over every full season but 2003. The Yankees need him to continue this badly. Torre almost put Bernie Williams in the cleanup spot yesterday.

That was unfair, Piazza'a offense overcame he defensive liabilities.

This is a preemptive "settle down" to Mets fans.

I'm a Yankee hater, and I've spent a lot of time defending Bernie Williams' career and whether he should be considered for the HOF, so I suppose he's tops on my list. Posada's probably second.

Unless Posada can play into his 40s, he won't get near the Hall. He spent too much of his peak backing up the inferior Joe Girardi.

As a Yankee fan, for the lifelong yankees from this run, I would rank them..

Mo.
Bernie
Posada

But it is so hard to choose, I love them all equally. Except Mo, who I love a little more.

I love Po. He's not a HOF since he doesn't have the years, but he's probably the most underrated player of this Yankees dynasty.

I'm not concerned about Chacon that much because he shouldn't have even been pitching the way his leg looked according to Damon. Either way though, I don't think of him as any better than league average so whatever. Proctor was pixie dust anyways. He'll probably be injured in July, which will likely be a blessing since Torre will throw him out everyday long after the dust wore off. Mo's my only concern. This better not be the year God™ falls from Heaven.

Mike Piazza was to catching like David Ortiz is to catching.

Piazza has averaged about 10 passed balls per year. Berra for instance averaged about 6. Thats four bases per season. Plus, he was a liability at throwing out base stealers. Unfortunately, baseball-reference doesn't have the data on this. I wonder how many more stolen bases he allowed than say Bench and Berra. There are also some subtle parts of catcher defense such as catching foul pop-ups and blocking the plate, but those plays aren't too common. But really, I think that the difference between a poor and good catcher at the major league level is far less than at shortstop or center field. Some statistics on this would be nice, though.

This is a game they should have lost, and they did not, and despite their record, there have not been many of those yet this year.

you keep telling yourself that.

the way the yankees are built (great offense, some bad starters and bad fielding), they're going to have alot of games that, as you would say "they should have lost" ... that they go on to win. as to giambi, sheffield, and matsui being out? well, the yankees' offensive is built around some aging players with troubling health histories, including a dh that insists on playing the field. so, while you wouldn't necessarily expect matsui to be the one to go down, you have to expect that they will suffer some injuries. in other words, this seems like a fairly typical yankees win to me.

™!

Unless Posada can play into his 40s

he could, too. he was a converted infielder, right? you would expect a converted infielder to age better than the average catcher.

I'm a Red Sox fan and Posada has always been one of my least favorite Yankees specifically because he refuses to block the plate and instead tries that sissy swipe tag every single time.

So I would also be in the category of being more impressed by him blocking the plate than hitting the homer.

Come on, Matsui has proven to be an iron man in the past. This actually reminds me of 2002 in some ways with Rondell White and Raul Mondesi stinking up the corners.

God™

?!?! you trademark "God"? where's gagne55?

he could, too. he was a converted infielder, right? you would expect a converted infielder to age better than the average catcher.

That's one point in his favor, but he's also caught more games than everyone but Kendall over the last 5-6 years. I just wish we still had Navarro so we could at least have a decent replacement in line once Po really needs to cut back on catching.

Yes, that was inappropriate.

Sox, fans, Yankees fans, break it up. You can keep sitting at the kids table, or you can tangle with the big boys in the AL Central.

(And this is Gagne_55; I tempoarly changed my handle in celebration of my high school baseball team winning the league title)

Sox, fans, Yankees fans, break it up. You can keep sitting at the kids table, or you can tangle with the big boys in the AL Central.

I keep telling myself "The Tigers are going to implode. The Tigers are going to implode." Yet, they keep winning at a torid pace. Of course, there's still plenty of time for them to pull a 2003 Kansas City.

Decent starters all having good years, excellent bullpen, balanced offence, first in the league in HRs - they're not doing it with mirrors. I still don't think they'll make the playoffs, but I think they're just as good or better than anyone in the the AL East (or West).

Decent starters all having good years, excellent bullpen, balanced offence, first in the league in HRs - they're not doing it with mirrors. I still don't think they'll make the playoffs, but I think they're just as good or better than anyone in the the AL East (or West).

Their record isn't built on mirrors because they do have an excellent run differential. However, I can guarantee they're not going to finish thet year with all five of their starters under a 4.00 ERA. And Mike Maroth isn't going to look like a Cy Young candidate three months from now.

maroth is way over his head, but bonderman, verlander, and kenny rogers is a pretty solid 1-2-3. and nate robertson is pretty good, too. and although nothing will ever convince me that todd jones doesn't suck, i like zumaya and rodney. is jamie walker for real?

I like the Tigers. I thought they would be pretty good (not .600+ winning percentage good, but good) this year. I really like Bonderman and Verlander and I think Robertson is decent, too. Kenny Rogers is Kenny Rogers. Maroth is way over his head, but he's non-terrible. And the lineup has many good (though no great) hitters. It's just a solid team.

I owe Chris P a Coke.

That's one point in his favor, but he's also caught more games than everyone but Kendall over the last 5-6 years.

but the point is that posada needs the counting stats, right? the only way he's getting into the hof is if he catches a bunch of games, and if he can do 140 games a year, why not let him?

really it's not whether he can play into his 40s, it's can he catch enough games to put up the counting stats he needs. so, being a converted infielder is one point in his favor, and having been durable recently is another point in his favor--not against him.

Jamie Walker has been pitching well for 3 years now, so I'd say he's for real.

I was in attendance the night the NYY's had the bigger comeback, 10-0, back in 1987 against Clemens. I don't remember getting home.

Jamie Walker has been pitching well for 3 years now, so I'd say he's for real.

hehe. looks like i was lazy and didn't actually check the numbers. actually it looks like you didn't check the numbers, as he'd had 4 straight good seasons dating back to '02.

Only three catchers who retired after Yogi Berra have been inducted: Carter and Bench, who were RBI champions, and Carlton Fisk, who played long enough to hold most of the catching-longevity-related records. By contrast, Posada has a single 100-RBI season on the books, and has caught about half as many games as Fisk. He is an outstanding all-round player, but the de facto standards for being elected by the writers as a HOF catcher are daunting. Posada is certainly as good as several Veterans-chosen catchers, however, so if he can wait till 2065 or so ...

According to ESPN.com, Mariano Rivera now has 8 Ks and 4 BBs in 17 innings. That walk rate is pretty standard for him, but that K-rate is terrible. Yes, it's very early, but he has not been good so far. He's giving up more than a hit per inning (20 in 17), which is also out of whack for him. I've only seen him pitch once or twice, and at this point in the season scouting is probably a more reliable gauge than stats. Still, those stats are not good.

Posada may be bouncing back, rather than declining, and the same goes for Mussina, obviously. And Giambi and Jeter look great so far. But I would nudge Mariano toward the list of players to be worried about on that team, a list currently occupied by Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield.

but the point is that posada needs the counting stats, right?

Right. Gary Carter had his last good year at age 32, so Posada is already ahead of one recent vintage HOF catcher in terms of aging gracefully. The difference though, is that Carter had nearly 300 HRs and 1000 RBIs before he starting sucking. Jorge needs a very long, very slow decline to get to plateaus that the voters will be comfortable with. I'm not sure that the decline phase has to come as a catcher, though. He could spend his age 36-38 (or even 40) seasons as a journeyman "professional hitter" carrying his catcher's gear around just for show, and I doubt that any HOF voters will withold their support because he only caught a handful of games in his last few years.

Bottom line: if he gets past 250 HRs, 1000 Runs and 1000 RBI while keeping his career OPS+ north of 115, he'll make it. If not, he might be one and done.

Through 2005, Posada has a GWAA of 18.40. It's a solid total, but not Hall of Fame caliber, especially not for a guy who was never considered a really great defender at his position. Among active catchers, he's of course well behind Piazza and Pudge, but also slightly behind Javy Lopez (19.74 GWAA).

but the point is that posada needs the counting stats, right? the only way he's getting into the hof is if he catches a bunch of games, and if he can do 140 games a year, why not let him?

really it's not whether he can play into his 40s, it's can he catch enough games to put up the counting stats he needs. so, being a converted infielder is one point in his favor, and having been durable recently is another point in his favor--not against him.

I'm not saying they shouldn't let him when he can, I'm saying that the toll of catching all those games likely means he won't last much longer than other catchers even though he started later in his career. If he can remain durable and productive as a C for 3 or so more seasons that's a huge boost to his HOF chances.

I don't think counting statistics will help Posada much, because I don't think they have ever been much of a factor when it comes to electing catchers, with the possible exception of Fisk. Most guys voted in the regular voting were either considered to be clearly one of the best catchers in the game when they played, no-brainer all stars, and each had some individual seasons when they were among the best players in the league at any position. This makes sense when you think about it, because catchers generally don't play long enough to impress people with their career counting statistics. I don't think there is going to be any voters who will be impressed with a catcher who hits 250 home runs in his career, when 500 is relatively common at other positions. IRod and Piazza clearly fit the mold of Hall of Fame catchers, but that's about it for the last 15 years or so.

The only exception was Fisk, who played until he was about 93 years old, and guys put in by the veteran's committee.

Coming into this year, Posada's BA was .269. His postseason BA was .229. If he has a good year, he'll get to 200 homers. He's not known as a great defensive catcher.

He's a very good player, but he's never getting into the Hall.

Plus, he was a liability at throwing out base stealers. Unfortunately, baseball-reference doesn't have the data on this. I wonder how many more stolen bases he allowed than say Bench and Berra. There are also some subtle parts of catcher defense such as catching foul pop-ups and blocking the plate, but those plays aren't too common. But really, I think that the difference between a poor and good catcher at the major league level is far less than at shortstop or center field. Some statistics on this would be nice, though.

Check out Retrosheet. Bench - 610 SBs/ 471 CSs. Piazza - 1303 SBs/ 410 CSs (not counting 2006). That's, what, 150-200 runs difference over the course of their careers? Pretty substantial, I'd say.

he's of course well behind Piazza and Pudge

And Posada is older than Pudge, by a few months ...

But I would nudge Mariano toward the list of players to be worried about on that team, a list currently occupied by Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield

I love how every year fans of other teams start urging Yankee fans to worry about Rivera. I'm not saying he won't falter one day, but every time he's been called human before he's run off another dominant stretch to shut everybody up.

I think it's a little more than 200 runs. So how many more runs has Piazza produced than Bench with the bat. If the margin is more than 250, I'd have to call him the better.

PJ, would you be worried about Sheffield purely because of the injury? Because before he collided with that redneck, I didn't see any real problems with his hitting or fielding; certainly nothing out of the ordinary.

If I'm worried about RJ to a "10", I'm worried about Mariano to about a "2".

I don't know about inappropriate, Gags. By "God™", he was referring to Mariano (I think). So this variation isn't even taking the Lord's name in vain in a strict sense of the word.

Also, please use the "Screenname History" part of the Profile if you're going to shift handles around. It eliminates a lot of the confusion.

Most guys voted in the regular voting were either considered to be clearly one of the best catchers in the game when they played, no-brainer all stars, and each had some individual seasons when they were among the best players in the league at any position.... The only exception was Fisk

Fisk was no exception. The only difference is that he spread out his years when he was among the best players in the league. He was Top Ten in the MVP voting in 1972, 1977, 1978 and 1983, although not in 1985, when he hit a career-high 37 homers. He got MVP votes as late as 1990, and deserved them.

I was in attendance the night the NYY's had the bigger comeback, 10-0, back in 1987 against Clemens. I don't remember getting home.

Damn. I was at that game too--I was sitting in the bleachers. I was sitting with a bunch of Yankee fans who were going berserk. Not sure what was more improbable--the comeback or the fact that Pagliarulo walked twice.