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— Twenty-four, Twenty-five, Twenty-six.... ?

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Tough spot

Today’s loss puts the Yankees in a tough spot, no doubt about it. And what makes things worse is they didn’t have to lose it.

Two Detroit runs were aided by balls skipping past Posada (a wild pitch in the fifth and a passed ball on the decisive run in the seventh).

Jeter handed Justin Verlander a free out in the first after a Johnny Damon single and just two days after he went 5-for-5. Sometimes being a good leader means being a bit selfish, Captain. Swing the damn bat.

All in all it was a nondescript game, where the Yanks looked pretty flat.

A lot is going to made of A-Rod’s three strikeouts today – but let’s try to take a somewhat objective look here (the speed and location features of the new MLB GameDay are sweet, by the way.).

In the first, Rodriguez took healthy cuts at a pair of 98 mph heaters from Verlander with the bases drunk with Yan-kees … and then the rookie dropped a 73 mph hammer curve on him. He just had no chance – then again, neither did any other carbon-based life form.

In the fifth, Verlander got him again – this time working the slider on the inside corner.

Finally, after Gary Sheffield flied out and Jason Giambi struck out, A-Rod faced Joel Zumaya. After wasting a slider away, here’s what the rookie dropped on Rodriguez:

103.
102.
100.

Three heaters, the last one being absolutely filthy and on the black.

Sometimes you just have to tip your cap.

I came away from today’s game being very impressed with Verlander and Zumaya. They’re both going to be very good for a very long time barring injuries.

So with the rainout, this sets up a cranky southpaw battle royale tomorrow night in Detroit.

In his postseason career, Randy Johnson is 7-8 with a 3.28 ERA … but his Division Series record is a terrible 2-7. It gets worse, those two wins were versus New York in 1995.

The Tigers counter with Kenny Rogers, who thankfully for the Yankees, hasn’t been much better. The Gambler is 0-3 in his postseason career with an ERA of 8.85.

Regardless of their history, either of these guys is capable of either shutting down the opposition or hanging sliders and crooked numbers all over the ballpark.

Now its not all that bad – this year, Johnson is 2-0 against the Tigers with a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings, with a 12/4 K/BB ratio. Rogers hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2004, but in his career he’s 5-7 with a 6.45 ERA.

When the Yanks dumped Javy Vazquez, Dioner Navarro and the rest on Arizona to bring in Randy Johnson – this is the type of game they had in mind. If Johnson doesn’t rise to the occasion, the Yanks will be in the most untenable position of having to send either Jaret Wright or Cory Lidle to the hill against Jeremy Bonderman with their season on the line.

There’s no two ways about it – if the Yanks don’t win tomorrow, it’s all but over.

Sean McNally Posted: October 05, 2006 at 05:00 PM | 156 comment(s)
  Related News: DetroitNY Yankees

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   1. chemdoc Posted: October 05, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#2199725)
Two Detroit runs were aided by balls skipping past Posada (a wild pitch in the fifth and a passed ball on the decisive run in the seventh).

The decisive run scored on a triple. Somehow I don't think the passed ball was crucial in that case.
   2. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 05, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#2199727)
The decisive run scored on a triple. Somehow I don't think the passed ball was crucial in that case.

It's hard to say how Mussina pitches Granderson if he can't score a run on a flyball out.
   3. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 05:57 PM (#2199728)
I think the Tigers WE for this series just shot up to around 70-75%.

There is no way Johnson gets through 5 innings with less than 7 runs scored. I think game 3 will be something like 29-17, Tigers.

So we put our hope in the arms of.....

Jaret Wright.

Awesome.
   4. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#2199735)
There is no way Johnson gets through 5 innings with less than 7 runs scored.

The Yankees' only hope for Game Three is that Johnson allows his homers with nobody on base. I can see him going five innings and allowing four solo home runs. Which puts New York in position to score some runs off the Roaster.
   5. Srul Itza Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:07 PM (#2199740)
A lot is going to made of A-Rod’s three strikeouts today

Absolutely

– but let’s try to take a somewhat objective look here

Why bother? Nobody else will.

After Randy and Wright serve up Games 3 and 4 to the Tigers on a platter -- and A-Rod adds in 4-6 more Ks -- Steinbrenner, once he is released from the Hospital for the fit of apoplexy he will undergo, will ORDER Cashman to get rid of A-Rod. Cashman will [rightfully] balk, and he will lose all credibility with Big Stein, who in his last [in]coherent act as Yankee owner will make a bunch of desperation moves, which will put this team back on track for a repeat of the Lost Decade from 82-93.

Leaving New York wide open for the resurgent Mets to be Top Dawg.
   6. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#2199743)
Arod has a no trade, he can't leave NY until he gets his ring, even if he goes to the Dodgers and they win 3 in a row, his 3 years in NY will always keep him from being known as a postseason performer.

Get use to another year of anonymous quotes and boos. I have seen this movie before, and it is annoying.
   7. Larry Mahnken Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:23 PM (#2199748)
Kenny Rogers has a career 2-7 record with a 8.14 ERA as a starter against the Yankees. His team is 2-12 in those games. The last time the Yankees lost a game that Kenny Rogers pitched for the other team in was August 17th, 1993.
   8. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2199752)
I think the Tigers WE for this series just shot up to around 70-75%.

I think it's the other way around. I thought before the series that the Yankees' chance of winning any game is about 2/3. The Tigers are probably around a .520 true talent team and the Yankees with no injuries are probably around a true talent .700 team. I still think that is true. If so, the Yankees' chances of winning the series are still 20/27, or about 74%.

Johnson and Wright may give up runs, but the offense is just too good.
   9. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:34 PM (#2199754)
This defeatist ######## is so annoying.

They're facing Kenny Rogers. KENNY ROGERS. He's Steve Trachsel with a temper.

THIS IS THE ####### WHO ###### BOTH THE METS AND THE YANKEES IN THE CLUTCH. HE CHOKES BOTH LITERALLY AND METAPHORICALLY.

and Zumaya was burned for 2 innings today..while Leyland could use him tomorrow, there's no way he's dealing at 102-103mph, right?

I say Yankees 8, Tigers 6
   10. baudib Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:45 PM (#2199761)
I love the fact that we've gotten to the point where some have to justify A-Rod's strikeouts when he put up another classic choke job. "He had really nice swings"

AWESOME!
   11. Cowboy Popup Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:55 PM (#2199767)
"Regardless of their history, either of these guys is capable of either shutting down the opposition or hanging sliders and crooked numbers all over the ballpark."

I know other people have said the same thing, but there is no way in hell Kenny Rogers is capable of shutting down this Yankee lineup. Jeter and A-rod will eat him alive because he's exactly the kind of pitcher they really own. I expect the playoff triple record to be challenged tommorow.
   12. Darren Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:58 PM (#2199768)
A-Rod is something like 10-19 with 5 HR off of Kenny Rogers, according to WFAN.

You guys sure are pessimistic for fans who keep reminding us of how many championships their team has won.
   13. Cowboy Popup Posted: October 05, 2006 at 06:59 PM (#2199769)
Wow, just looked at the numbers, current Yanks are slugging .700 against Kenny Rogers. Basically, he turns the Yankees lineup into Barry Bonds circa 1993.
   14. Larry Mahnken Posted: October 05, 2006 at 07:02 PM (#2199770)
I think it's the other way around. I thought before the series that the Yankees' chance of winning any game is about 2/3. The Tigers are probably around a .520 true talent team and the Yankees with no injuries are probably around a true talent .700 team. I still think that is true. If so, the Yankees' chances of winning the series are still 20/27, or about 74%.

The Yankees aren't nearly a .700 team. If we use BPro's adjusted standings report, their chances to win the series were 58.15% coming in, 73.97% after Tuesday, and 53.33% now. If they lose tomorrow, their chances go down to 28.52%, a win shoot it back up to 78.59%, and in a Game Five, they have a 57.55% chance.
   15. Buddha Posted: October 05, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#2199772)
Randy Johnson has been very good against Detroit this year. The Tigers dont take many pitches and don't work counts. Johnson's pitch count will remain low and they won't have to go to that bullpen until it's Rivera-time.

I think the Yankees will win something like 9-5. But then again, I didn't think the Tigers would win today.

Don't worry, in 5 years you guys can buy Zumaya. :)
   16. Cowboy Popup Posted: October 05, 2006 at 07:05 PM (#2199774)
Stan Musial in 1948 put up a .376/.450/.702 line.

The Yanks have put up a .365/.458/.700 line against Kenny Rogers. That's closer then the Bonds comp.
   17. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 05, 2006 at 07:17 PM (#2199784)
Don't worry, in 5 years you guys can buy Zumaya. :)

I had my heart set on Bonderman.
   18. Srul Itza Posted: October 05, 2006 at 08:02 PM (#2199811)
You guys are right to rag on Rogers.

But Randy is toast. That epidural will wear off around the 3d inning, and then it will be a race between him and Kenny as to who can give up runs the fastest.

My money is on Unit "winning" that one.
   19. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 05, 2006 at 08:04 PM (#2199812)
What Joe should do is tell Johnson to go all out for three or four innings, then go to Lidle for two or three. I think Johnson has it in him to be ferocious for a few innings at a time.
   20. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 08:53 PM (#2199880)
1. Sean, I don't think Justin throws a slider, just a tight curveball.

The Tigers are probably around a .520 true talent team and the Yankees with no injuries are probably around a true talent .700 team.

What the hell does this even mean? This is why they play the ####### games, isn't it? I guess they should just admit the Yankees are better and hit the links. I'm reminded of Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger saying after finishing second that his team was the true champions because they 'played better football.' That and $1.50....

Sorry AS, I'm not mad at you as much as I'm mad at the ESPN-ized 'ARod choked' and 'without the passed balls' postgame nonsense which detracts from the real story. That two of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball game to the Stadium and either kept the Yanks fantasy offence in check, or dominated them.
   21. robinred Posted: October 05, 2006 at 08:55 PM (#2199883)
I still expect the Yankees to win this series. The lineup is too deep and talented, IMO, for them to lose to Detroit. The first two games--the Tigers scoring 4 each time, the Yankees winning one pretty easily, and the Tigers barely winning one--show the nature of the matchup.

I am glad the Tigers got off the schneid as a baseball fan.

If I were a Yankee fan, I would be a little worried about Rodriguez, though.

Speaking of post-season yips, out here in SD, Jake Peavy, who I really like, seems to be devloping quite a case of them. The Padres have now lost EIGHT consecutive post-season games to the Cardinals.
   22. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 09:00 PM (#2199887)
But we've already faced their two best pitchers, on the road, and got a split.
Odds are still in the Yanks favour, sure, but don't count the Tigers out yet.
   23. Rough Carrigan Posted: October 05, 2006 at 09:04 PM (#2199896)
The yankees will probably still win. It'll just confirm my atheism for me.
   24. robinred Posted: October 05, 2006 at 09:24 PM (#2199948)
But we've already faced their two best pitchers, on the road, and got a split.
Odds are still in the Yanks favour, sure, but don't count the Tigers out yet.


I'd never count anyone out in a best-of-5. All I said was I expect the Yankees to win because of the firepower in their lineup, which is, I think, about the most innocuous opinion about this series one can have.
   25. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2199998)
Sorry, I'm just a bit worked up.
   26. robinred Posted: October 05, 2006 at 09:54 PM (#2200050)
Sorry, I'm just a bit worked up.

Well, today was a big win for the Tigers after a lot of people wrote them off. I actually posted in the Sunday KC/Det game chatter telling Tiger fans if the team could win one game in NY it would be like a fresh start.

But, simplistic as it is, it is hard for me to picture that Yankee lineup losing a best-of-5 or best of-7--against any of the teams in the post-season--in spite of NYY's age and pitching issues.

A lot of folks here were very excited about the Padres three days ago, but it has been the classic balloon-quickly-going-pfft scenario.
   27. Bob "Jugement" Dernier Posted: October 05, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2200117)
I like the Yankees to win, still do, but this was the series I thought the Tiger pitchers could make really close, and so far they have.

Of course, I thought the Twins and Padres would win easily, so clearly I have less than a clue :)
   28. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 10:36 PM (#2200186)
I love the fact that we've gotten to the point where some have to justify A-Rod's strikeouts when he put up another classic choke job. "He had really nice swings"


I think this is the first time I agree with you on A-Rod. Yes, he got pitched too very well. Good for the Tigers. He still had a horrible ####### game, and I don't see any reason to sugar coat it. He's a great player and I'm happy he's a Yankee, but he sucked, sucked, sucked today.
   29. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 11:02 PM (#2200246)
The Yankees aren't nearly a .700 team. If we use BPro's adjusted standings report, their chances to win the series were 58.15% coming in, 73.97% after Tuesday, and 53.33% now. If they lose tomorrow, their chances go down to 28.52%, a win shoot it back up to 78.59%, and in a Game Five, they have a 57.55% chance.

But BPro doesn't take into account the fact that they had Abreu, Matsui, and Sheffield for (much) less than half the season each, and they have them all now. Now, these statements can be misleading (i.e. "But ___ put up a 7.82 ERA in 40 innings, and he's not on the team now" -- such statements are true for almost every team, so they cancel), but in this case nothing similar is true for the Tigers. It also doesn't take into account any performances before this season, which would also favor the Yankees.

Don't get me wrong. I really, really hate the Yankees and hope not only that they lose, but that Jeter, A-Rod, and Wang suffer career-ending injuries in the process, and Steinbrenner is gunned down in cold blood and the new owner is Jeffrey Loria. I'm rooting for the Tigers and hope they win. But my honest assessment is that the Yankees are about 70% likely to win the series. I would certainly put money on them at 2:1 if it were zero effort to do so.

What the hell does this even mean? This is why they play the ####### games, isn't it? I guess they should just admit the Yankees are better and hit the links. I'm reminded of Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger saying after finishing second that his team was the true champions because they 'played better football.' That and $1.50....

I'm certainly not saying the Tigers have no chance or should give up. 26% is about the chance a major league baseball player will get a hit in a given at-bat, and I don't think they shouldn't try to get hits. They should try their hardest, and if they play better, they will win and deservedly so. I think the odds of them playing better are about 26%. It's not like if they win it will be purely luck, like A6 beating KK on an all-in (about the same odds.) I really do hope they win. I just think it is unlikely.
   30. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 05, 2006 at 11:06 PM (#2200249)
I really, really hate the Yankees and hope not only that they lose, but that Jeter, A-Rod, and Wang suffer career-ending injuries in the process

Your hatred of Dominicans, Taiwanese, and biracial Americans sickens me. Fie on you, David Duke.
   31. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 11:18 PM (#2200275)
Your hatred of Dominicans, Taiwanese, and biracial Americans sickens me. Fie on you, David Duke.

And Steinbrenner. Don't forget Steinbrenner.

My friend who went to Duke once wore a sweatshirt that said DUKE IN '04.

Once.
   32. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: October 05, 2006 at 11:30 PM (#2200289)
Well, first off, nuts to all of you for making me agree primarily with 'Zop, but this defeatist stuff is total ########. How do you pick the Yankees to win in four games as, for example, SJ did, without expecting one of Wright or Johnson to win a game? It can't happen. If you think they could win one game between them now, there's no reason to think they can't win one game between them now which means at worse it's Wang at Yankee Stadium.

I picked the Yankees, I'm a Yankee fan, and I'm sticking by it. Everyone else who thinks the Tigers have a 75% chance of winning the series, or that Johnson is going to give up elevenity billion runs and then A-Rod will be traded and the Yankees will hire Stump Merrill again can go #### themselves.
   33. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: October 05, 2006 at 11:41 PM (#2200295)
Well, first off, nuts to all of you for making me agree primarily with 'Zop

I'll rip your heart out like an Aztec priest and feel its beats grow weak in my callused hands.
   34. Sam M. Posted: October 05, 2006 at 11:55 PM (#2200298)
The Tigers are probably around a .520 true talent team and the Yankees with no injuries are probably around a true talent .700 team.

Wow. I actually agree (almost) re. the Yankees. Somewhat short of .700, but close enough.

But the Tigers are a .520 true talent team? No way. No #### way.

In any event, here's the reality that I see. The Yankees are a better team. The Tigers have the home field advantage. In a best-of-three situation, that makes it as close to pick 'em as you can get, in the ONLY series that's 1-1.

Both teams have relatively unreliable pitchers going in what is the biggest game of the season. Having just seen John Maine (yes, John Maine) pitch quite well in the biggest game of MY team's season yesterday, all I can say to the fans of both teams is not to assume that the only question is how far into double-digits your guy is going to give up runs tomorrow. The smart money, of course, is on a high-scoring game, and that's where my money is. But it sure wouldn't shock me the way it would some of you if somebody pitches OK tomorrow.
   35. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:11 AM (#2200301)
Ahh, Sam, the sober yin to my raging yang. That's basically exactly what I meant to say above. In my defense, this is my first playoffs since I was 8, and I'm freaking out a bit. AS, hope your boys finish off Minny tomorrow.
   36. Cowboy Popup Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:23 AM (#2200308)
"But it sure wouldn't shock me the way it would some of you if somebody pitches OK tomorrow."

It would shock me if that someone was Kenny Rogers.
   37. battlekow Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:24 AM (#2200309)
Speaking of post-season yips, out here in SD, Jake Peavy, who I really like, seems to be devloping quite a case of them.

What a giant load of crap you have, Granny. Peavy had a terrible start last year with a broken rib plus a mediocre one this year and that equals a case of the yips? That's like saying Carlos Delgado is the best postseason player in history--he's batting .555!
   38. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:27 AM (#2200311)
That's like saying Carlos Delgado is the best postseason player in history--he's batting .555!

Yeah. And the problem with that is . . . what, exactly? You mean Carlos Delgado isn't the best postseason player in history???

Huh.
   39. Buddha Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:38 AM (#2200316)
I had my heart set on Bonderman.

Really? you can have him if you want to spend stupid Yankee money on him. He ain't worth it...not that that has ever stopped you before. And he's a country boy, he might not like the Big Apple.
   40. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:42 AM (#2200317)
Really? you can have him if you want to spend stupid Yankee money on him. He ain't worth it

Speaking of "Huh?" A 23-year old pitcher with those peripherals and the steps forward he took this season? Why don't we wait to see how much money, and where he is in two years, before writing Bonderman off as not worth it. He looks awfully special to me. Of course, you're the Tiger fan, not me . . . .
   41. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:43 AM (#2200318)
It would shock me if that someone was Kenny Rogers.

And it would shock me if that someone was the Big Gangly Pituitary Freak Loser. But my quasi-rational hatred toward and pessimism regarding that useless sack of skin and bones is extremely well documented. I honestly think that Joe should tell Big Gangly to go all out for three or four and then turn to Lidle for two or three. Considering the way the Yankees are likely to maul Rogers, that could very well put them in a position to get the game to the decent to good relievers with a lead. Big Gangly generally can get you into the fourth before something goes awry and he gets hammered for four or five runs. Get him out quickly with Lidle and a 9-5 Yankees win is eminently possible.
   42. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:55 AM (#2200321)
The worst thing either Torre or Leyland can do is treat his Game Three starter like an ace. They are both 3/4 starters who should be yanked early if they start getting into real trouble in a crucial playoff game. As a Yankee fan, this concerns me because I figure Leyland is much less likely to be deferential to solid veteran and lousy postseason performer Kenny Rogers than Joe Torre is to be deferential to Hall of Famer and postseason hero Randy Johnson.
   43. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:06 AM (#2200325)
As a Yankee fan, this concerns me because I figure Leyland is much less likely to be deferential to solid veteran and lousy postseason performer Kenny Rogers than Joe Torre is to be deferential to Hall of Famer and postseason hero Randy Johnson.

Nah. I just can't see that. Torre has every excuse for quick-hooking Johnson, with the disk problem. And he'll do it, too. Didn't he do it to him with the ALDS tied 1-1 in Game 3 against the Angels last season?
   44. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:08 AM (#2200327)
Didn't he do it to him with the ALDS tied 1-1 in Game 3 against the Angels last season?

I was engaged in best man-related activities that entire series, so I don't recall.
   45. Anthropophagus Mets Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2200328)
Speaking of "Huh?" A 23-year old pitcher with those peripherals and the steps forward he took this season?

You forgot to mention the nice GB tendencies. Imagine him in a pitcher's park in the NL? *drools*

If Bonderman's available, me wanty!
   46. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2200329)
I was engaged in best man-related activities that entire series, so I don't recall.

Boy, I'm glad I re-read that. At first, I thought you were confessing to "beast man-related activities," and I really thought I knew more than I wanted to know right there . . . .

But anyway, Torre had a quick hook for Johnson in Game 3, and Mussina in Game 5, of last year's LDS. I don't think you have to worry about him being reluctant to come get Johnson if he needs to.
   47. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#2200333)
Boy, I'm glad I re-read that. At first, I thought you were confessing to "beast man-related activities," and I really thought I knew more than I wanted to know right there . . . .

I love my cat, but only in an entirely appropriate manner.

But anyway, Torre had a quick hook for Johnson in Game 3, and Mussina in Game 5, of last year's LDS. I don't think you have to worry about him being reluctant to come get Johnson if he needs to.

Anytime Johnson allows more than two baserunners in an inning after the third, I want him out. I have visions of Joe sitting in the dugout, sipping prostate-friendly green tea, while Brandon Inge turns a 3-1 lead into a 4-3 deficit with a fourth innings homer.
   48. ian Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:31 AM (#2200336)
It would shock me if that someone was Kenny Rogers.

Has it always been saber dogma that post-season performance indicates clutchiness and is useful for predicting future playoff performance?
   49. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:38 AM (#2200337)
Has it always been saber dogma that post-season performance indicates clutchiness and is useful for predicting future playoff performance?

I don't think it was Rogers' lack of postseason success that made him think he's a bad bet to succeed. It's that his stuff does not match up well with the Yankees. Jeter and Sheffield and Rodriguez hammer guys like the Roaster.
   50. Matt Waters Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:53 AM (#2200339)
If the Yankees win four... that does mean they would have had to lose a game right? SO CALM THE #### DOWN EVERYBODY!
   51. Larry Mahnken Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:31 AM (#2200342)
Has it always been saber dogma that post-season performance indicates clutchiness and is useful for predicting future playoff performance?

I think it's more that the Yankees have won every game he's started (or pitched in) against them since August 17, 1993, that he has an ERA over 8.00 against them, that the lineup as a whole has an OPS over 1.200 against him...

If Kenny Rogers picks tomorrow to be the day he doesn't get #####-slapped by the Yankees... it probably won't be because of anything Rogers actually does.
   52. Larry Mahnken Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:38 AM (#2200343)
If the Yankees win four... that does mean they would have had to lose a game right? SO CALM THE #### DOWN EVERYBODY!

I don't think it's about losing "a" game, it's that they blew a chance to put this game away early. If Walewander really thinks that Verlander shut down the Yankees, he's fooling himself. He gave up 11 baserunners in 5.1 innings, the Yankees' offense beat themselves yesterday.

And it's that they're going to have to win one of the next two games, and Randy Johnson is as likely to give up three straight homers to start the game as he is to pitch moderately well, and Jaret Wright, if he actually were to keep the game close, won't go past the fifth.

If they can win one of the next two, I figure they'll win, especially since it'll have to be Robertson, not Verlander, in Game Five.
   53. You can't lose with Randy Winn, says Flynn Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:52 AM (#2200346)
cover of the daily news. It's just perverse now - I laugh at A-Rod's failures and how the media and the fanbase react. I'm waiting with bated breath for the Post's back page.
   54. Larry Mahnken Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:56 AM (#2200349)
Where's the hate for Sheffield? He's done less than A-Rod in three years.
   55. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 06, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#2200367)
The 1996 Yankees were 3-0 in postseason starts by Kenny Rogers! The man is money!
   56. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 06, 2006 at 05:25 AM (#2200369)
cover of the daily news.
It's just perverse now - I laugh at A-Rod's failures and how the media and the fanbase react. I'm waiting with bated breath for the Post's back page.


I realize that debunking Mike Lupica has gotten to be like pointing out the subtle gaps in logic behind God Hates Fags' protest tactics. But a line from his "hoo boy, Yankees are in trouble" column today jumps out at you:

Then [Todd Jones] struck out Jorge Posada looking and got Robinson Cano, who looks lost these days, to fly out to left.

Really, Mikey? Cano "looks lost these days"? Would those be the thirty days of September, when he bat .373 with 28 RBI in 28 games, and slugged .664? Or the hapless lost days of August, when Cano hit .351/.598 with 23 RBI in 25 games?

I guess "these days" refer specifically to October 3 and October 5. You know, the 3rd and 4th games out of Robinson Cano's last month in which he went hitless.

Rave on, dwarf. Better stick to those logrolling book plugs every Sunday, and telling everybody how funny Imus is.
   57. Joey B. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 09:14 AM (#2200402)
I love the fact that we've gotten to the point where some have to justify A-Rod's strikeouts when he put up another classic choke job. "He had really nice swings"

Are there any Yankees fans here who have any confidence whatsoever that A-Rod will deliver at a crucial point at any time in these playoffs?
   58. Sean McNally Posted: October 06, 2006 at 09:17 AM (#2200406)
FYI - I'm out of internet contact 'til late Sunday.... hopefully we'll have good things to blog about then.
   59. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 06, 2006 at 09:45 AM (#2200432)
Alright, after a proper bender I am back with a renewed outlook.

The Yankees will be fine.
   60. Fat Al Posted: October 06, 2006 at 10:21 AM (#2200459)
Alright, after a proper bender I am back with a renewed outlook.

The Yankees will be fine.


I agree. Look, the Yankees threw away a game yesterday. It was stupid and bad but they should have gotten to Verlander and Jones. Only Zumaya really dominated them and while missed opportunities suck, there should be even more opportunities against Rogers.

As I said at the beginning of this series, if the Yankees cannot beat these bozos, they deserve to be on the golf course. And if they lose they will have nobody to blame but themselves. So either they go out there and play like they are capable of or they go home. That's playoff baseball. Bring it on.
   61. ian Posted: October 06, 2006 at 10:43 AM (#2200473)
I think it's more that the Yankees have won every game he's started (or pitched in) against them since August 17, 1993, that he has an ERA over 8.00 against them, that the lineup as a whole has an OPS over 1.200 against him...

I don't understand what his starts against the Yankees in, say, 1996 indicate.
   62. JC in DC Posted: October 06, 2006 at 10:43 AM (#2200475)
I had that same thought process when they played the Marlins, Fat Al.
   63. WalkOffIBB Posted: October 06, 2006 at 10:48 AM (#2200480)
I agree. Look, the Yankees threw away a game yesterday. It was stupid and bad but they should have gotten to Verlander and Jones. Only Zumaya really dominated them and while missed opportunities suck, there should be even more opportunities against Rogers.

As I said at the beginning of this series, if the Yankees cannot beat these bozos, they deserve to be on the golf course. And if they lose they will have nobody to blame but themselves. So either they go out there and play like they are capable of or they go home. That's playoff baseball. Bring it on.,


Wow! If I was not already a Tigers fan, this post alone would be enough to make me root against the Yankees.
   64. WalkOffIBB Posted: October 06, 2006 at 10:52 AM (#2200482)
You forgot to mention the nice GB tendencies. Imagine him in a pitcher's park in the NL? *drools*

But Comerica is a pretty good pitchers park. Not sure why Bonderman would do that much better there.

Bonderman has improved this year, but has been inconsistent. he is only 23, so he definitely has room for improvement. My concern is that he is already finishing his fourth full season. While he has had no significant injuries, I wonder how will that effect him.
   65. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 06, 2006 at 10:54 AM (#2200483)
Wow! If I was not already a Tigers fan, this post alone would be enough to make me root against the Yankees.

Well, no one is on the fence wrt the Yanks.
   66. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: October 06, 2006 at 11:08 AM (#2200486)
I had that same thought process when they played the Marlins, Fat Al.


Listen, there's no question they could lose to Detroit, just like they lost to Florida. But that doesn't mean that Detroit isn't an inferior team (like Florida) and that the odds in the series still favor the Yankees even w/o homefield advantage.

Nothing we've seen so far has indicated that the Yankees aren't really good. The bullpen has actually held together, they got a good outing from Wang and an OK outing from Moose, and the offense has scored 11 runs in 2 games. All we know now is that they can't hit 103mph heat. I mean, no ####### #### they can't.
   67. Got Melky? Posted: October 06, 2006 at 11:10 AM (#2200490)
Was at the game yesterday - Verlander was filthy, sure didn't look like the Verlander of September to me. That curveball was unhittable, and coupled with the high-90's cheese, its amazing the Yanks had so many baserunners. And Zumaya - he's pretty good, too. I'm not terribly worried about A-Rod or anyone in that linup. Good pitching beats good hitting, especially in the postseason, and you have to tip your cap to the Tigers.
   68. ian Posted: October 06, 2006 at 11:13 AM (#2200492)
Nothing we've seen so far has indicated that the Yankees aren't really good. The bullpen has actually held together, they got a good outing from Wang and an OK outing from Moose, and the offense has scored 11 runs in 2 games. All we know now is that they can't hit 103mph heat. I mean, no ####### #### they can't.

Tigers are 1-1 and have the pitching advantage in the next two games, which are at home. Looks like if the Yankees are gonna pull it out it'll have to be in game 5. Which must be an insult to the Greatest Lineup Ever. Pitching? Well, let's just talk about the lineup...
   69. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 11:24 AM (#2200496)
# 66 & 67 -- Both excellent posts. The Yankee offense is fine, and there is no reason to panic because they could get only three runs off the pitching they were facing yesterday. Yankee fans just have to hope the Yankee players realize that, and I strongly suspect they do.

As Ian says, though, the critical point to remember is that in the two games so far, they had Wang and Mussina on the mound -- and the Tigers scored four runs in both games. Now, the Yankees have to turn to lesser pitchers. My view was the Tigers bats against the Yankee pitchers would be good for 4-6 runs per game this series, and that's been on target so far. I doubt six will be enough tonight, but it might be in Game 4.
   70. Buddha Posted: October 06, 2006 at 11:41 AM (#2200512)
Speaking of "Huh?" A 23-year old pitcher with those peripherals and the steps forward he took this season? Why don't we wait to see how much money, and where he is in two years, before writing Bonderman off as not worth it. He looks awfully special to me. Of course, you're the Tiger fan, not me . . . .

The point was that if the want to throw stupid Yankee money at him, like $15-18 million per season, then they can have him.

You guys just see his numbers and his age. You don't watch him every five days like we Tigers' fans do. I think most Tigers fans like Bonderman, think he has a lot of potential, but are getting tired of saying that every year while watching him blow 6 run leads.

If I were the Tigers, I'd offer him to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera.
   71. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: October 06, 2006 at 11:42 AM (#2200514)
Arod has a no trade, he can't leave NY until he gets his ring, even if he goes to the Dodgers and they win 3 in a row, his 3 years in NY will always keep him from being known as a postseason performer.

Get use to another year of anonymous quotes and boos. I have seen this movie before, and it is annoying.


Untrue, I think Arod will demand a chance to overcome the most imposing booers in baseball by demanding a trade to the Phillies. Steinbrenner will insist on receiving Aaron Rowand in the trade, which will also send Pat Burrell and Jon Lieber to the Yanks.
   72. Lefty, Monty, And The Moose (Walewander) Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:09 PM (#2200540)
. I think most Tigers fans like Bonderman, think he has a lot of potential, but are getting tired of saying that every year while watching him blow 6 run leads.

Bingo.

If Walewander really thinks that Verlander shut down the Yankees, he's fooling himself.

Nah, I said Verlander contained them and Zumaya dominated them. And Ohmigod, I think they're gonna kill Kenny.
   73. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:14 PM (#2200546)
If I were the Tigers, I'd offer him to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera.

He is too close to FA for the Marlins business model.

Verlander could probably get it done though.
   74. Robert in Redondo Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:16 PM (#2200548)
Weird to see some Yankee fans so negative. I don't think there is anyway the Yankees lose this series. Too much firepower.
   75. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:28 PM (#2200561)
I don't think there is any way the Yankees lose this series. Too much firepower.

Well, that's just silly. Come on, now. Call them favorites, and I'm with you all the way. No problem.

But it is actually quite easy to see the scenario unfold whereby the Yankees lose this series. Johnson tries to go tonight, and he just can't get drive on his pitches either because he's an old geezer with nothing left, his back hurts, or both. The Tigers smoke him early, hard, and often, and get out with a four-run first before Torre can get Lidle warmed up, much less in the game. Lidle gets in there, and is OK but nothing special, giving up another four runs (three earned) in four innings. The Yankees batter Rogers, but he somehow makes it through 4+, giving up six runs when all is said and done. They get through five with the Tigers ahead 8-6. When the smoke clears and the middle and late relievers get done with their parade, the Tigers stagger out around 12:40 with an 11-8 win. That's possible, isn't it? It could go that way.

Then we come back Saturday, and Bonderman (with a ton of rest now to refresh his arm, much the same way it did for Verlander) is light's out for six magical innings. Now, against the Yankees, that means just holding them down pretty well, not shutting them out. Wright actually pitches well (this is not the dream scenario for Detroit, mind you -- just a reasonably possible one), and it's a 3-3 game into the late innings. Is it so impossible to imagine that in the 7th and 8th innings of that game, the Yankees bullpen loses that game?

If you really don't think there is any way for the Yankees to lose this series, you have a serious failure of imagination. It could easily happen. It's not the likely outcome, but it sure as heck is possible.
   76. Robert in Redondo Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:41 PM (#2200577)
If you really don't think there is any way for the Yankees to lose this series, you have a serious failure of imagination. It could easily happen. It's not the likely outcome, but it sure as heck is possible.

Under the 'Anything's Possible' heading, sure the Tigers could do it. Under reasonable scenarios, very unlikely. The Yankees lineup is a force of nature.

Not that I wouldn't love to see it happen. My Dad is a Tigers fan and we haven't been able to talk baseball like this in at least 15 years.
   77. The Jerry Royster Experience Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:42 PM (#2200579)
Zumaya dominated them.

Zumaya is already my favorite Tiger. He's like Bobby Jenks, but even more intimidating.

I'm really rooting for the Tigers. They haven't looked good the past few weeks, but I'm hoping they pull it together.
   78. bunyon Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:46 PM (#2200583)
All we know now is that they can't hit 103mph heat. I mean, no ####### #### they can't.

This has become a legend already. Does anyone seriously believe the kid was throwing 103? He was throwing really, really hard. But that gun was super fast. And, yes, I'm suggesting you dock everyone else a few mph. Where is Harvey when you need him?
   79. seeking a clever screen name since 1999 Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:48 PM (#2200586)
I doubt six will be enough tonight, but it might be in Game 4.

Well, Sam, if you're right, Game 4 will be a must-win for the Tigers.

And aside from starting off the game with three straight walks and a grand slam, neither manager is going to let his starting pitcher allow four runs in the first inning.
   80. The Bones McCoy of THT ... of DOOM! Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:51 PM (#2200591)
cover of the daily news. It's just perverse now - I laugh at A-Rod's failures and how the media and the fanbase react. I'm waiting with bated breath for the Post's back page.


Still, ya gotta admit, the 'A-Wol' headline was pretty original.

I didn't think there were any more variations on that theme.

Best Regards

John
   81. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:52 PM (#2200592)
And aside from starting off the game with three straight walks and a grand slam, neither manager is going to let his starting pitcher allow four runs in the first inning.

What about homer, walk, walk, homer? Because I can absolutely see Big Gangly doing that.
   82. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:57 PM (#2200598)
And aside from starting off the game with three straight walks and a grand slam, neither manager is going to let his starting pitcher allow four runs in the first inning.

What about homer, walk, walk, homer? Because I can absolutely see Big Gangly doing that.


Walks take time (or at least they can). If a lot of walks are involved, I actually think either manager is more likely to be able to get his starter out of there. My guess would be that a big inning could explode quick if it's single, double, single, homer -- boom, in quick succession, before the reliever can get warmed up. Especially if it's, say, Lidle for the Yankees. How quickly would we think a guy who is usually a starter can get ready?
   83. Fat Al Posted: October 06, 2006 at 12:59 PM (#2200602)
Wow! If I was not already a Tigers fan, this post alone would be enough to make me root against the Yankees.

Yankees fans get accused of being arrogant front-running ######## no matter what we say, so I've decided to go with it. If I'm going to be criticized anyway I'm going to embrace it. The Yankees are better than the Tigers and they should win. If they don't I'm not going to give credit to the Tigers, I'm not going to complain about short series and small sample sizes, I'm going to blame the Yankees.
   84. WalkOffIBB Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:05 PM (#2200605)
If they don't I'm not going to give credit to the Tigers

Well congratulations. You have the arrogant ####### part down.
   85. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:06 PM (#2200610)
If a lot of walks are involved

I don't think two is enough for Joe to freak out. Especially if there are a couple outs sprinkled in. If it went homer-out-walk-out-walk-homer, I don't think Joe would yank Big Gangly before the second homer.
   86. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:10 PM (#2200618)
Are the Tigers changing their line-up? Because I can't see Johnson letting both Granderson and Casey reach base, as bad as Johnson was this year, lefties still only put up .194/.252./.287 line on him. Now, I assume Leyland will switch things up, but if Randy sees two lefties in the first inning, he should manage to get through it
   87. rLr Did Your Mother 'Cause She's Hot As A Baker Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:10 PM (#2200619)
Of course, while I think it's possible that Big Gangly gets lit up in the first, I consider it more likely that he cruises through the first 2 1/3 or 3 1/3 before Detroit whacks him. With the Roaster pitching on the other side, the Yankees could well be up 5-0 by then.
   88. bunyon Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:15 PM (#2200626)
Has there ever been a more anticipated postseason pitching matchup than this one - in terms of everyone is just sure that both guys are going to get killed? I think one of these guys is going to pitch pretty well.
   89. seeking a clever screen name since 1999 Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:17 PM (#2200629)
How quickly would we think a guy who is usually a starter can get ready?

So? Burn a sixth or seventh inning guy early, and then bring in your second starter in the second or third after he's had plenty of time to get loose. What's the difference between Johnson, Villone, Lidle and Johnson, Lidle, Villone? Anything that gets you to the seventh inning still in the game.
   90. ian Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#2200630)
This has become a legend already. Does anyone seriously believe the kid was throwing 103? He was throwing really, really hard. But that gun was super fast. And, yes, I'm suggesting you dock everyone else a few mph. Where is Harvey when you need him?

The only thing is, Zumaya has hit 102, 103, and I believe even 104 this year in multiple stadiums. He did it in Oakland, he's done it in Detroit, did it in Chicago, did it in New York, did it with MLB's gun, and ESPN's gun, and the stadium guns...
   91. WalkOffIBB Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:29 PM (#2200645)
The only thing is, Zumaya has hit 102, 103, and I believe even 104 this year in multiple stadiums. He did it in Oakland, he's done it in Detroit, did it in Chicago, did it in New York, did it with MLB's gun, and ESPN's gun, and the stadium guns...

Fans love seeing pitchers hit triple digits, so I have no doubt that most, if not all, baseball radar guns read high. I love watching Zumaya pitch, but I would be surprised in he was truly above 100.

Which is still pretty damn impressive.
   92. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:48 PM (#2200666)
I would be surprised in he was truly above 100.

I'd be surprised if he wasn't at least at 100. If he's been topping 100 all over the place -- even with fast guns, nobody else is putting up 102-103 on those things. And then yesterday the guy is combining massive doses of adrenaline and an unusual amount of rest. Why wouldn't we think this would be a time he'd at least hit 100? And the results the Yankee hitters were able to obtain certainly suggest there was a whole lot of smoke being tossed.
   93. Max Parkinson Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:48 PM (#2200668)
90:

At some point, you have to ask yourself what's more reasonable.

1. Zumaya was throwing 103, and has touched 104 in the past. He has the ability to throw 2% harder than any other human being in the history of the game. Although there are more than 20,000 college and professional pitchers who operate within normal bounds of max velocity (75-100 MPH), Zumaya is so blessed as to be a full 2-3% better than any other actor in this capability.

Perspective: the 100 metres. When records are broken (and yes, they're all on drugs, I don't care what anyone says, no one is clean), they are bested by 0.01 and 0.02 seconds over a 10 second race. Find me one person who is 0.2 to 0.3 seconds faster than anyone else alive.

2. Stadium guns are not accurate, and network guns use Jugs and not RayGuns. This seems obvious to me, but I could understand why the casual observer of the game may get confused. You see, when the gun has Wang throwing 93-96, instead of a more accurate number, it's not intuitive that the gun is hot, because most people can't tell the difference between 91 and 94, especially on television. The problem is only exacerbated on the margins.

When the same gun that has boosted average pitchers by 2-3 MPH shows someone who actually throws hard (Zumaya and Verlander), the results are questionable - see point 1. On the flip side, the same gun has Tommy Glavine cruising at 88 MPH. I mean really. 88. I was giggling to myself watching the game last night.

Obviously my opinion is that Option 2 is the reasonable one. YMMV.
   94. bunyon Posted: October 06, 2006 at 01:51 PM (#2200672)
Smoke, no doubt, Sam. 100 I'll buy. Maybe 101 when it all comes together. 103? 104? Consistently 102? No way. I want UL testing if I'm going to buy that. I mean, I'm quibbling, but everywhere I turn everyone quotes 103 as if it is proven and unimpeachable. I'd say the guns in stadia and broadcast on TV are consistently a bit inflated. Dock 'em all a couple mph.

I still wish he could go seven this evening.
   95. Buddha Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:00 PM (#2200681)
Are the Tigers changing their line-up? Because I can't see Johnson letting both Granderson and Casey reach base, as bad as Johnson was this year, lefties still only put up .194/.252./.287 line on him. Now, I assume Leyland will switch things up, but if Randy sees two lefties in the first inning, he should manage to get through it

Leyland has been dropping Granderson in the order against lefties. Polanco could bat first and Monroe second.

My worst fear? Leyland notes that Neifi Perez kills Randy Johnson, starts Perez at short and Guillen at first, benching Casey.
   96. Sam M. Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:05 PM (#2200684)
On the flip side, the same gun has Tommy Glavine cruising at 88 MPH. I mean really. 88. I was giggling to myself watching the game last night.

But wasn't that a thing of beauty, the way he was pitching? Baseball is such a magnificent game, the way it has room for Joel Zumaya and Tom Glavine to both be superb at the same basic job in such fundamentally different ways.

I love this game.
   97. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:06 PM (#2200685)
I've watched many a baseball game in my day. I've seen Farnsworth, Johnson, Wagner, Dibble, all pitching in their primes. I've seen tapes of 1985 Gooden, and 1970's Gossage.


I have never seen anyone throwing as hard as Zumaya threw yesterday. On the K-Zone replays it looked the ball had a rocket in it. And the movement was amazing as well. Those were killer fastballs.
   98. bunyon Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:09 PM (#2200689)
Indeed Sam. That was cool. Glavine and Julio Franco in the playoffs. Fun isn't it?
   99. Max Parkinson Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:09 PM (#2200690)
Sam,

Absolutely. I love watching Glavine pitch. But you see, I don't need to see an 88 on the screen to be impressed. I'm impressed by the movement, by the control, and most importantly, the ability to spot the change at will.

Having the television tell me that his fastball is 88 miles per hour just makes me laugh.
   100. ian Posted: October 06, 2006 at 02:09 PM (#2200691)
Zumaya was throwing 103, and has touched 104 in the past. He has the ability to throw 2% harder than any other human being in the history of the game. Although there are more than 20,000 college and professional pitchers who operate within normal bounds of max velocity (75-100 MPH), Zumaya is so blessed as to be a full 2-3% better than any other actor in this capability.

So Zumaya would still throw 2% harder than any other human being in the history of the game, right? It would affect everyone. Not to mention other people have been talked as if they threw that hard.. they just couldn't control it.
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