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Royal Ingenuity
— Where Pine Tar and Powder Blue are Revered

Saturday, March 31, 2007

A few thoughts on David DeJesus

With Reggie Sanders on the team, Joey Gathright was sent down to Triple-A Omaha.

This leaves the Royals with one answer at center field: David DeJesus.

(They tried Mark Teahen in center, but he never seemed comfortable or good. Esteban German can play center, but he isn’t exactly a ballerina either.)

This means DeJesus will be expected to take the very broad majority of starts in CF. And this could pose a problem.

After DeJesus took CF over from Carlos Beltran in 2004 following a mid-season trade, he finished the year out well, playing in 96 games. In his next two seasons, he played in 122 and 119 games with very nearly identical stats, despite spending half his time playing left field in ‘06 to accommodate Gathright.

I have two concerns here: First of all, he has a real knack for getting hurt. If he only lasts 120 games again, there’s 40 games of Teahen or German or Reggie Sanders or Emil Brown or Ross Gload or Sluggerrr trying their hand at center, or, worse yet, it would force the Royals to call up Joey Gathright. Second, Why didn’t he improve offensively? I understand that his being yanked from CF to LF to CF again can hurt offensive production by providing ample distraction, and that his injuries in either year cannot have helped, but to have Mr. Dependable’s 26-year-old season be very nearly identical to his 25-year-old season is a tad bit concerning.

Along with this offensive stalling comes another confusing thing—DeJesus’ left/right splits are downright tumultuous. Via B-Ref [05 | 06]:

Vs. LHP
2005 | 162 PA, .270/.350/.390
2006 | 161 PA, .307/.384/.529
Career | 431 PA, .272/.346/.404

Vs. RHP
2005 | 361 PA, .303/.363/.469
2006 | 391 PA, .291/.355/.413
Career | 1067 PA, .300/.368/.446

It could very well be the work of the Small Sample Size Monster, but why the boom in LHP hitting and the mild regression against righties? I don’t know, it just concerns me.

[Interesting sidenote: Why do the majority of B-Ref’s comparables to David DeJesus (through age 26) have dates in the 1910-1940 timeframe? If you look at that group’s career stats, it looks as if DeJesus is currently already past them in rate stats. Has he already had his peak (a la Angel Berroa)? Some of them, through sheer staying power, had some good careers. Would you be satisfied if DeJesus played for 10 years at his current, age 26 level?]

I don’t know—maybe I’m making a mountain out of a molehill, but coming into this year I had anticipated a type of breakout year (at age 27) for DeJesus. But after looking at his unbalanced splits, his weird comparables and his lack of a full, injury-free season in two successive tries, I’m getting a slight case of cold feet. Is my worrying justified, or am I just a desperate blogger looking for trouble to write about?

Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: March 31, 2007 at 01:29 PM | 5 comment(s)
  Related News: Kansas City

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   1. Darren Posted: March 31, 2007 at 04:30 PM (#2321384)
Desperate blogger!
   2. Zach Posted: March 31, 2007 at 07:33 PM (#2321425)
Here's an oddity in his comparables list: if you take the average from age 26 to the end of the career, you get an average of .290/.352/.425 AVG/OBP/SLG. DeJesus's career line through age 26? .292/.362/.434
   3. The District Attorney Posted: April 02, 2007 at 11:08 AM (#2322477)
The injury-proneness is certainly a concern, although you never know if it'll go away with age a la Paul Molitor, or stick around a la J.D. Drew. The failure to improve is a small concern; it's certainly worse than improving would have been, but again, every player is different. I don't understand what you're getting at with the splits, though. Other than that it's "weird", what bad thing do you think fluctuating L/R splits could signify?
   4. Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: April 02, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2322837)
Other than that it's "weird", what bad thing do you think fluctuating L/R splits could signify?

It could be nothing, or just a fluctuation from a small sample size. But if he is instable with his splits, we don't really know how good he is. He could be underachieving, overachieving, or achieving right at his talent level. I don't think it's a problem, necessarily, but that he could just be overachieving (Angel Berroa-esque) is a tad concerning. On the other hand, if those splits are showing that he has dominant abilities vs. righties and lefties, but that he just needs time to get it all together, he can become one of the MLB's most valuable players. My best guess is that he's playing right around his talent level, but I just don't like the instability presented in his splits, probably because I (faultingly, it seems) have always seen DeJesus as a very steady, dependable guy. The CF version of a "Stopper."
   5. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 02, 2007 at 07:58 PM (#2323155)
Why do the majority of B-Ref’s comparables to David DeJesus (through age 26) have dates in the 1910-1940 timeframe?


Furillo, Fox, Walker, Haas - there are some pretty good players there. If DeJesus has a career comparable to one of those, I'm sure he'd take it...
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