A little ‘Moore’ Dayton
On May 31, the Royals announced the departure of then-GM Allard Baird and the hiring of Dayton Moore in his place. Since then, Moore has made eight trades, one free agent acquisition, and one claim off of the waiver wire.
Let’s look at all of his early transactions, and summarize (and editorialize!) about his first half-year as the Royals general manager. Then, in the comment threads, we can all review Moore’s moves, and whatever else crops up there in the ol’ skull.
(I apologize that this second post took me awhile. Jim has been very busy with the site and work and it took a little longer than expected for me to get the keys to this thing. I wrote this two days after my initial post and, as such, some of these stats are old, but the gist of them remains the same.)
June 9 – Royals claim P Todd Wellemeyer off of waivers from the Florida Marlins
Before the move, Wellemeyer had a 5.48 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 0.42 HR/9 in 2006. After being picked up by Kansas City, he’s earned a much better 3.69 ERA, despite a worse 5.8 K/9, near-identical 5.6 BB/9, and a worse 0.78 HR/9.
Excluding a massacre against Toronto and three of the last four games he’s pitched in, Wellemeyer has done well this year – both with Florida, but especially with Kansas City. He’s 27 and still likely has a chunk of his prime in front of him. Considering his mediocre numbers and the cost to the Royals (nothing), this is a good pickup for a team with very limited pitching talent.
June 10 – Royals trade money to the Pittsburgh Pirates for P Brandon Duckworth
Although Duckworth has been on the DL since July 31, he’s put up decent… well… he’s put up bearable numbers this year: 6.11 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 in Kansas City service. Little trivia for you: In how many of Duckworth’s 10 games did he yield runs? Every one of them. And only once did he allow less than two runs in an appearance.
That said, Duckworth was a lottery ticket of a pitcher that Moore took a chance on, at the cost of little money – I couldn’t find how much, but I would imagine the going rate for a Brandon Duckworth isn’t high – and the experiment didn’t work in this case.
Still, it’s nice to see Moore take some (essentially free) chances to strike gold with a player. To me, it seems like Moore is willing to take a few more risks than Baird was. And for a GM in a smaller market, that’s an easy way of gaining cheap talent. To be fair, Baird did get his own cheap talent (Raul Ibanez, Emil Brown, etc.) but he also seemed too satisfied with situations that just weren’t working.
To put it differently, it’s better when Duckworth fails than when Angel Berroa continually fails.
June 20 – Royals trade P J.P. Howell to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for OF Joey Gathright and 2B Fernando Cortez
36.0 IP | 14 BB, 33 K, 4.75 ERA – Howell at Omaha this year.
55.0 IP | 15 BB, 49 K, 2.62 ERA – Howell at Durham this year.
152 AB | .197/.294/.237, 0 HR, 12 SB, 2 CS – Gathright at Tampa Bay this year.
157 AB | .248/.332/.306, 0 HR, 6 SB, 6 CS – Gathright at Kansas City this year.
202 AB | .223/.265/.272, 0 HR, 8 SB, 2 CS – Cortez at Durham this year.
234 AB | .261/.296/.303, 0 HR, 2 SB, 0 CS – Cortez at Omaha this year.
I listed the immediate basic numbers to show that both teams seem to have come out well in this trade. Everybody involved is doing better with their new teams. And in this set up, Moore seems to have made a pretty decent trade. But that takes the performances out of context.
Joey Gathright – with Shane Costa, Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier, David DeJesus, Billy Butler, Justin Huber and perhaps Mark Teahen competing for outfield spots – should have no real shot of keeping an everyday job in Kansas City’s center field. Likewise, Fernando Cortez – with Esteban German, Jeff Keppinger and a re-signed Mark Grudzielanek taking care of any open second base or utility spots – has no real shot of even keeping a roster spot in Kansas City.
J. P. Howell, on the other hand, is a couple of years younger than Gathright and Cortez, and will likely end up as a consistent major league pitcher for the Devil Rays. Even if he doesn’t make the starting rotation, he’s good enough to be a decent long reliever.
In short, Moore traded away a usable commodity for two good career minor leaguers or backups. Did he get more value? Perhaps so. But will he get more production? Almost certainly not.
In my opinion, this was the worst Dayton Moore trade of the year.
July 19 – Royals trade 2B Ruben Gotay to the New York Mets for 2B Jeff Keppinger
Keppinger did well in Omaha after the trade (.372/.422/.496 in 113 AB), and is doing better offensively than Gotay, both before and after the trade. I believe the word on the street is that Keppinger has better defense than Gotay, too, and while I can’t confirm that about Keppinger, I can confirm that Gotay’s fielding was just awful. The only way that this trade can come back to hurt Moore is if Gotay can develop strongly in the coming years. He’s three years younger than Keppinger, and is hitting (albeit not as well) at around the same talent level – Triple-A/MLB.
For now, though, and likely for the future, this is a Moore victory.
July 24 – Royals trade P Mike MacDougal to the Chicago White Sox for P Tyler Lumsden and P Daniel Cortes
As far as I’m concerned, this is a great trade by Dayton Moore.
It isn’t that I don’t like unstable, injury-prone 29-year-olds still working on their third complete MLB season. It’s not. It’s just that I like picking up two legitimate young pitching prospects in exchange for him.
Lumsden, a 23-year-old who has a 2.64 ERA at Double-A this year, seems to be a middle-of-the-line pitcher who can contribute somewhere on an MLB roster. (His K/BB numbers aren’t great, and are around 5/3 for his minor league career.)
Cortes is 19 years old, and is in his first professional baseball season, I believe. At Single-A, his 6.15 September ERA doesn’t look encouraging, but perhaps his steady improvement (and a 2.58 July ERA) does. I don’t know much about Cortes, so any input here is especially appreciated.
And, when all else fails, just quote Mike Emeigh (from the Transaction Oracle thread):
Lumsden’s 23, out of Clemson, coming off a lost season due to a bone spur in his left elbow. He’s got good stuff, but doesn’t miss many bats; he projects as a back-end-of-the-rotation guy.
Cortes is interesting. Just 19 in March, he’s in his first year in full-season ball and played for a Kannapolis team that has improved rapidly over the course of the season after an abysmal start. He’s very raw, but throws 90-92 with an excellent curve ball. According to the excellent Minor League Splits DB, he’s struggled at home and had difficulty in the first inning (a tendency not uncommon in young pitchers). I think he’s the better prospect in the deal.
Nice deal by Dayton Moore, [in my opinion].
July 27 – Royals sign P Esteban Yan to a minor-league contract (assigned to Triple-A Omaha)
No big deal. Again, a pretty cheap way of finding decent talent. Is he blocking a more worthy pitcher from tossing at Triple-A, though? That’s the key. But then again, perhaps he’s preventing a talented Double-A pitcher from being rushed up too early. I don’t know the answer; I’ll leave that for someone who does. Until I hear otherwise, Yan is just a ‘whatever’ Triple-A signing that probably won’t garner much discussion.
July 24 – Royals trade P Elmer Dessens to the Los Angeles Dodgers for P Odalis Perez, P Blake Johnson and P Julio Pimentel
Dessens has had an average career and was having some type of career year at 35 years old, and Dayton Moore got three pitchers in exchange for him. That’s a pretty big feat in itself. Perez requires no introductions. He’s half a decade younger, and pitches at a major league level. Johnson is 21 years old and is so-so. Pimentel is 20 years old and is also so-so.
It seems that Moore has cashed in an old, worn Dessens for another veteran and two lottery tickets. Considering Dessens had no usefulness with Kansas City, and there’s some chance one of the young guys catches fire, I like this trade quite a bit.
July 25 – Royals trade UTIL Tony Graffanino to the Milwaukee Brewers for P Jorge de la Rosa
34-year-old Graffanino had no future with the Royals, while de la Rosa is 25 years old and is a pretty decent pitcher. It’s possible he develops and even becomes a good pitcher for the Royals.
Useless for potentially useful – good trade.
July 31 – Royals trade 1B/DH Matt Stairs to the Texas Rangers for P Joselo Diaz
Hmm… see above.
July 31 – Royals trade P Jeremy Affeldt and P Denny Bautista to the Colorado Rockies for 1B Ryan Shealy and P Scott Dohmann
Shealy was finally liberated from Todd Helton’s clutches in Colorado. Affeldt and Bautista, two very talented pitchers, get to unleash their frustratingly inconsistent performances upon another fan base.
Bautista has been kept at Triple-A, where he’s earned a 4.97 ERA in 5 games. Affeldt has earned a 7.97 ERA for the Rockies this year, and I’m sure Royals fans can empathize. Even sadder, you can tell Clint Hurdle hasn’t seen enough Affledt blowups yet:
“Those first (nine) appearances he was lights out,” Hurdle said. “He shows us the arm and velocity is there. Sometimes left-handers take longer to pop. That’s what we are holding on to.”
Shealy has gone .304/.360/.453 in 39 games for the Royals while Dohmann has had pretty dismal early returns, giving up more runs than innings pitched with Kansas City.
The ‘winner’ of this trade is up for debate, but as far as I’m concerned, Shealy’s solid and consistent hitting makes this trade a big plus for Kansas City. At the same time, I wish the best of luck (and a little Pepto) for Rockies fans who watch Bautista and Affeldt pitch.
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So, what do you think? Am I a fool? Will the restrictive budget from Glass force this discussion into the state of moot? How long will this Buddy Bell-loving talk go on? Will Moore be a good GM for the Royals in the future?
A+ = Abraham Lincoln in the Civil War
F- = Matt Millen, GM of the Detroit Lions (yes, I went with football for the required lowness of that reference)
What grade do you give Dayton Moore so far?
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So in comes Moore and the first thing he does is trade one of the better pitching prospects in a pitching depleted organization for a speedy centerfielder that cant do much with his speed. My reaction? Thank you Dayton! He put his big fat ugly stamp on the Royals right then and there and let us fans know that Glass wasnt sitting on his shoulder and we now had a GM that could move freely. I knew at that moment that what little shards of hope us Royal fans where clutching could be kicked to the curb. We were about to do better then hoping Howell panned out, hoping Grienke got on the right drugs, hoping Sweeney will see a chiropractor and hoping we wont sign Emil Brown to a huge contract.
Moore? A+
Now I cant wait to see Steinbrenner and his Yanks in the ALCS so we can shove all the #### he talked on us down his bloated throat. Maybe 2008?
But Burnside was the Grady Little of generals; the Battle of Fredericksburg was his Pedro moment.
There may not be a causal relationship, but the Royals have been--to use a BSGism--positively frisky since Moore came aboard. They were moribund beforehand, so from an overall perspective, that's probably enough to bump the trades' cumulative B up to a B+.
Lincoln was a micro-manager in the worst way during the early part of the war. That is surprising giuven Lincoln's poor military reputation during his early career, especially the Blackhawk wars (Lincoln's units were always poorly led and ill-disciplined, even for the time). McClellan (the American Napoleon) was clearly the best general officer available to the Union at the start of the war, yet Lincoln interferred down to the tactical level and had a quick hook. This was mainly due to the proximity of Lincoln to the Army and his desire to act aggressively and end the war as quickly as possible. McClellan had his moments and could have, in my opinion, accomplished the mission if left to his own devices. McClellan was a bit timid, but he was also operating under the "guidance" of Lincoln and political generals that had more say than those in the Army of Northern Virginia (where Bobby Lee was steadfastly in charge).
Grant, on the other hand, was left alone of the western front and was allowed to conduct operations out of sight and out of mind. While bothered by political generals, Grant was able to operate without the direct oversight. Grant doesn't become a known factor nationally until after late 1863 as the success and style of his campaigns along the Mississippi River and Tennessee were noticed.
When Lincoln finally did appoint Grant as the Commanding General, it is interesting to note that George Meade was actually the commander of the Army of the Potomac. It was left to Meade to run the army in the field, as Grant planned the strategy and tempo of operations. Grant also brought a harder outlook on the war - which encompassed the totality of the civilian and military entities. Sherman learned a lot from Grant. I don't believe that type of conduct would have been acceptable early in the war, and certainly not in the Virginia-Maryland military axis of operations.
When Grant established his ability to lead and command the army, Lincoln finally stepped aside. By this time, any hope for a Confederate victory was long past.
He'll get extra bonus points if/when Buddy Bell moves along.
I'd give him an A if he move just Berroa.
The General Hooker/"hooker" thing is an urban legend, by the way, as the term was already in use before the Civil War (nice explanation here, with some more detail here).
greg shuler that was very interesting talk about the generals in the civil war and politicians trying to decide how to do things they don't know how to do.
things looks like they the exact same today
Moore hasn't made any serious effort to remake the team yet, mostly working on the fringes - which is about all he can do in-season. Shealy was a nice pickup, but he shouldn't be anyone's cornerstone; he is 27 and is about as good as he's going to get, and .840ish OPS from your first baseman isn't exactly what you'd be hoping for there. As quoted above, I do like the MacDougal deal, and the other youngish pitchers that Moore has brought in have upside, unlike almost anything left behind by Allard Baird. But I want to see the direction that Moore and his management team take in the offseason before grading anyone.
-- MWE
The main difference between Huber and Shealy is that Huber is three years younger. They're very similar players otherwise, IMO, and I don't see Huber as likely to become *significantly* better than Shealy.
-- MWE
This is important to remember. Just because the Royals "won" this trade doesn't mean that the White Sox didn't "win" it too.
Assuming that's all you want.
The biggest mistake low-budget teams make, IMO, is to aim too low. The Pirates have made this mistake for years; they've settled for targeting *respectable* rather than shooting for being *competitive*, and is is much harder to get to *competitive* in phases, IMO, than I think it is if you shoot directly at the target. Moore - I think to his credit - IS shooting for the higher (and more difficult to attain) target, and if that means that he has no role for Huber in his master plan, so be it.
-- MWE
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5544
Cliff notes: He's had very drastically different halfs of seasons, from Rookie ball on up. It summarizes every year he's had in the minors, and a little bit of an outlook, along with some scouts' thoughts on him. Great piece by Kevin Goldstein.
So, he gets a B so far, but that could be raised to an A or lowered to a C depending on his FA signings.
Sample sizes were small, of course, but the difference between 4-days-rest and any other use were just huge.
Okay, I just checked his 10 games with Kansas City this year. Same deal. (I'll toss out his first MLB start of the year (5.2 IP, 2 ER).)
4 starts on 4-days-rest:
22.2 IP, 22 H, 11 ER, 12 K, 9 BB, 4.37 ERA (no unearned runs)
3 starts with extra rest and 2 relief app.:
17.1 IP, 34 H, 20 ER, 9 K, 12 BB, 10.38 ERA (plus 5 more unearned runs)
Again, I'm not saying Duckworth is an all-star waiting to happen. But I really wish somebody which just start him every 5th day and leave him alone. Remember that his AA and AAA numbers were golden. Of course, an extra day's rest really shouldn't be this debilatating and Duckworth should get some blame for this. Also, he's 30 now, so it could be diminishing returns anyway.
The Royals still need extensive reshaping. They'd probably be better off moving Berroa, Sweeeney, Sanders, and possibly Brown. Moving any of those guys and getting value back would push Moore from a B+ to an A in my eyes.
It'll be interesting to see how Moore puts together a pitching staff for next year. It's hard to believe, but a league-average staff would translate to something like a 16 game improvement.
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