A look back at 6/24/04

June 24, 2004 was surely an important day to a number of people for a number of reasons, nearly all of which are more important than baseball. But Royals fans who take the game (too) seriously (like myself) remember that day for something else: The Carlos Beltran Trade.

ROYALS TO ASTROS
Carlos Beltran, CF

ASTROS TO ATHLETICS
Octavio Dotel, RP

ATHLETICS TO ROYALS
Mark Teahen, 3B
Mike Wood, SP/RP

ASTROS TO ROYALS
John Buck, C

This piece from Sam Mellinger at The Star breaks it down nicely:

The A’s needed a closer. Their bullpen was falling apart — 14 blown saves in 27 chances — jeopardizing the team’s playoff chances.

The Astros needed a superstar. They were five games back in the division and two back in the wild-card race.

And the Royals needed prospects. With more than a month before the trading deadline, Royals GM Allard Baird was interested in receiving prospects at catcher, third base and pitcher.

The piece also made me start to think—has this trade been a success for the Royals?

Personally, I remember being pretty down on it for the first year or so, mainly because Mike Wood was the only so-so part that came from it, and he was just a decent reliever. The Royals gave up an All-Star center fielder (granted, for only half a season) in exchange for a reliever and two duds?

Second-half 2003 stats:

KANSAS CITY
Buck—71 games, .235/.280/.424
Teahen—66 games (AAA), .280/.344/.447
Wood—100 IP, 5.94 ERA
HOUSTON
Beltran—90 games, .258/.368/.559
OAKLAND
Dotel—50.7 IP, 4.09 ERA

The only two major-league-caliber players were the two who weren’t on the Royals roster. Of course, Beltran went on to lead the Astros to a great finish (and a long but successful push to the playoffs) and had an insane postseason. He was only an Astro for half a summer, but he certainly delivered.

The next year, 2005, saw some things change in Buck, Teahen, and Wood, but not much. Buck gained a little bit in contact hitting but drastically lost power. Teahen was called up to the bigs and had a very mediocre season: .246/.309/.376 (82 OPS+) in 130 games. Wood shaved his ERA down to 4.46, and was a serviceable long- and middle-reliever out of the bullpen. But still, there was no real excitement from the three. The Royals traded The Carlos Beltran for three pretty bad major leaguers. Pretty bad young major leaguers, sure, but pretty bad major leaguers nonetheless.

2006 started to change things. Buck picked up a little more contact and dropped some more power, and became a really bad MLB catcher by all accounts. Wood’s ERA escalated back to 2004 numbers. But that Mark Teahen! Sent down to Triple-A after a horrendous start to the 2006 campaign, he figured out a hole in his inside swing, learned how to effectively pull the ball (he had been a push hitter extraordinaire up to that point), and hit for contact and power. He was sent back up to Kansas City and continued his success. He finished the season hitting .290/.357/.517 over 109 games before a shoulder injury (and surgery) ended his season early. He was voted the Royals player of the year.

Between 2006 and 2007, Mike Wood was given Super-2 status and was lost to the Texas Rangers organization, where he has played mostly at Triple-A but has accrued some MLB innings. He no longer factors into the discussion, but while he was in KC was just about the only immediately useful part of the Beltran trade for Kansas City. He was pretty much the best long reliever available in his time in KC, and did his job pretty well.

This year, John Buck has added his name to the Beltran trade discussions. After dropping power in every year since, he finally regained some of his pop, slugging .545 and already hitting a career-best 13 home runs in 50 games. He’s hitting .251/.342/.545 and is among the best hitting catchers this year, the second-best by my count (Jorge Posada at number one). He has really struggled as of late, though, and many of his numbers are a result of a red-hot early season.

Teahen has gained a little more OBP this year, but has really lost the pop from his bat. His .290/.357/.517 turned to .290/.367/.423 this year, not a great development from a right fielder.

It’s hard to judge value when you’re looking at such drastically different types of players. The Royals gave up one superstar for half a year in exchange for three prospects. On one hand, the immediate failure of the prospects would indicate a “win” for the Astros in the deal. It seems like the Teahen and Buck improvements were kind of lucky or fluky, and I’m not sure we can just hand the Royals credit for knowing what they were getting. Still, prospects are a lot like lottery tickets—you collect as many good ones as you can in hopes you get one or two to break out, and that’s what has happened here, so perhaps the Royals (Allard Baird) deserve credit for the deal’s positive turn in the last two years.

I’ll call it a toss. The Astros got a playoff appearance and a great half-season and postseason from Beltran. The Royals got three young guys, one of which was okay at first, and of which the other two have bloomed as of late. The Athletics, coincidentally, got screwed. In 2005 or early 2006, I would have called it a rousing failure on the level of the Jermaine Dye or Johnny Damon trades. Now, I like what the Royals have done.