Checking up on AL and NL Rookie of the Year candidates
This post was inspired not by Joakim Soria, as perhaps it should have been, but rather by Alex Gordon’s underwhelming year. In any event, I wanted to check out some of the contenders—some expected, some who came out of no where—and the seasons they’re having.
National League
--Hunter Pence: Whoa. The kid’s hitting .375/.403/.625 over 33 games for the Houston Astros. The 24-year-old is, by my count, the only hitter in Houston besides Carlos Lee that matters in the national sense. Plus, getting that kind of production from a center fielder is just outstanding. Can anyone discuss his defense? If he’s even close to major league average at CF, he’s got a strong hold on the lead for NL RoY in my book.
--Mark Reynolds: Were it not for Chad Tracy, Reynolds might be a legitimate NL RoY contender. As is, he’ll have to wait for Tracy—having a pretty great year so far—to get injured or benched or something else unlikely to happen. But then again, perhaps not playing every day is the number one reason he’s hitting off the charts, eh?
--Chris Sampson: A teammate of Pence, Sampson’s having a solid year on the mound. 10 games started, 63 innings pitched, 3.43 ERA. 27:17 K/BB ratio isn’t breathtaking, but the ERA’s there for now.
--Shawn Hill: Aside from Jay Bergmann (24 years old, 2.76 ERA), Hill’s 2.70 ERA is the only number in the Washington Nationals starting rotation under 5.10. He’s doing well though—8 starts, 50 innings pitched, 33:16 K/BB ratio, and his 2.70 ERA translates to a 150 ERA+. Not bad for a rook.
--Kevin Cameron: I don’t know how a guy with 18 strikeouts and 15 walks (and 10 hits) only gives up one run all year, but Cameron has done that in 20 1/3 innings of relief spread over 13 games. I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that by the end of the season, Cameron’s ERA will be above the current 0.44 it’s at now.
My prediction: Pence. Along with darkhorse Sampson, I’d say there’s a 65% chance the NL RoY is a Houston Astro.
American League
With all due respect to our NL brothers, finally we get to some excitement. At the beginning of the season, I asked people to compare the two forerunners of the AL RoY, Alex Gordon of the Royals and Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox.
I would say that neither are frontrunners any longer, as early in the season as we are. In fact, from the Royals and Red Sox, I can pick out three guys who I think are more likely to win the RoY than their aforementioned teammates. Anyway, let’s start looking around the AL.
--Dustin Pedroia: .336/.411/.478, 16 walks, 9 strikeouts, 134 at bats. Nothing flashy—only two dingers all year—but just good, solid hitting from the second base slot.
--Reggie Willits: You’d hope for a bit more power coming from a left fielder, but Willits’ ability to play all three outfield spots and his great speed on the basepaths (13 stolen bases, caught twice) makes his .360 slugging percentage more palatable. Well that, and his .416 on-base percentage. I like the Angels and I hope Willits keeps this up. During the two Angel games I saw in person this year, I recall being impressed with Willits on several occasions.
--Akinori Iwamura: A somewhat surprising season from the 27-year-old Devil Ray has outshined seasons from teammates Elijah Dukes and Brendan Harris. .370/.483/.507 after 23 games—It’s a great marginal season, and I think it merits a second look for Devil Rays management. What will it take for Iwamura and Carlos Pena to squeeze Ty Wigginton out of the starting Tampa Bay corner infield and give Iwamura the full-time starting spot at third, at least on a trial basis? I think it’s worth a try.
--Jeremy Guthrie: Over 58.7 innings pitched (7 starts—3-1 record—and 6 relief appearances), he has 36 strikeouts, 10 walks, and a 2.76 ERA. Great year so far. In his 28-year-old season, can he keep it up?
--Hideki Okajima: In my opinion, Okajima has been the best rookie reliever in the AL. 28.3 innings pitched over 26 appearances, resulting in 28 strikeouts, 7 walks, 4 runs, and a 1.27 ERA. Great stuff from the 31-year-old Japanese import.
--Pat Neshek: 27 innings pitched over 26 appearances, 32 strikeouts, 10 walks, 1.33 ERA. I’m mentioning Neshek because his season is very close to Okajima’s in quality, and his numbers last year were very solid. In short, Neshek has a longer track record in the MLB and if I were forced to guess who would finish stronger between Neshek and Okajima this year, I’m going Neshek.
--Joakim Soria: A few weeks ago, perhaps Soria would deserve to be on this list. As is, he doesn’t deserve to be on this list. But I just can’t not put a Royal, you know? Regardless of him winning the AL RoY, it’s cool to have Soria’s production in the Royals’ pen—22.7 IP, 21 appearances, 25 strikeouts, 11 walks, 3.57 ERA… from a 23-year-old!
My prediction: Neshek, although I’m not confident in that selection one bit. I’m picking him because he’s young, this is his second great year in a row, and I have a secret hope that the Twins do well. [Edit: see comments 15, 29, 31, and 38. I’m not changing my prediction, though. Right or wrong, Neshek’s the best candidate!]
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Of course, my thumb on the pulse of the league is as dull and calloused as… well I can’t think of a good enough analogy. The point is, I’d like your input on the matter too. Who do you predict will be the Rookies of the Year? Who did I omit from this list that I shouldn’t have? Who’s going to be the first one in this post to crash and burn?
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. no relief pitcher will win this, unless he's a closer on a contending/playoff team and has >20 saves. Sorry.
2. I think you forgot Josh Hamilton. the 'feel good' nature of his story alone will add roughly 25% to his vote tally, I would guess. And he also plays CF on a middling NL Central team, so no positional advantage for either him or Pence (HR total will likely determine the winner, sadly, not quality of play).
Iwamura does have the full-time starting spot at third, he has only one game this season where he didn't start at third besides the ones he missed to the strained oblique and now this freak eye incident. At this point, even with Maddon's love for Wigginton, he pretty much is squeezed out of the corner infield when Iwamura is available and there's a right-hander starting against the team. Most of his time will come as a 1B against lefties and sometimes as a DH or 2B (with Upton being in CF) against righties.
See, I could have actually researched and found the answer. I just assumed that Maddon was like Buddy Bell -- the scrappiest player plays, not the best one.
Delmon Young is in the mix too though he has been mostly poor at the plate so far. Figuring things out and having a hot second half could throw him right back into the mix.
It seems like more of a stretch, but I suppose the same can be said of Alex Gordon.
Also, Dice-K is having a so-so year. If he catches fire -- and the BoSox keep winning -- he can be thrown back into the mix, no doubt.
His manager ain't helping him.
Quick Royals sidenote: Anyone know why Dane Iorg has three career MLB innings pitched?
June 23, 1986, while playing for the Padres, Iorg had 1 IP in an 18-1 loss to the Giants. It was 14-1 when he came in, allowed two singles, and then allowed a 3-run HR to pitcher Mike LaCoss. He then struck out Randy Kutcher before allowing another HR to light-hitting backup IFer Mike Woodard.
August 30, 1986, he came in and had 2 scoreless IP against the Expos in a 10-1 loss. He struck out Al Newman.
No love for Tony Pena Jr.? ;)
Nice summary Garth. I'm shocked and disappointed Gordon isn't in the conversation, but that is the life of a Royals fan.
I wonder if the Royals had some field guys who could come in and pinch in a blowout? It would give Buddy Bell more guys to tinker with, which would please him no doubt.
P.S. Dane's brother had a cool first name. They met in the '85 ALCS if memory serves. The parents rooted for the Blue Jays because Dane had been to a WS already, I believe.
Young is hitting .269/306/.449 with 6 homers and 6 steals. He keeps getting hot and then keeps tweaking his groin injury and gets slowed down. The team probably should have just DL'd him, but with so many guys nursing injuries they needed him. If he can get that groin healed, he can still have a strong 4 months and make his case, and his numbers are not in the dumper to begin with, it's not like he has a huge hole to crawl out of.
Micah Owings is 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA, and the team is being careful with his innings. They DL'd him with a minor hamstring pull, and the have skipped him in the rotation when the extra off days allowed it. He has only thrown 46 IP so far. So there is a good chance that he could still be going strong come September, and get into double digit wins.
ROY voters like things like HR/SB combinations, and of course Wins, as long as the ERA is decent.
So these guys still have a shot at the award.
But clearly the NL ROY is Hunter Pence's to lose at this point. Amazing what he is doing.
Hanley Ramirez would beg to differ. So would Dontrelle Willis, Angel Berroa, and Ichiro.
Willis won the ROY because he went 14-6 and had a cool delivery and a charasmatic smile, and his team made the playoffs. Webb was by far the better pitcher in 2003, but was just 10-9 thanks to poor run support. Webb 165 ERA+, Willis 122 ERA+
Hanley Ramirez would beg to differ. So would Dontrelle Willis, Angel Berroa, and Ichiro.
I had forgotten thatn Teixeira was a 2003 rookie, and actually had a pretty decent season at .259/.331/.480 with 26 homers. He was a highly touted prospect, high draft pick, well known college player, playing in a good sized market. He got nine votes.
His numbers are arguable as good or better than Berroa's or Matsui's. Why was he not part of the conversation?
As for Berroa... maybe the voters like shortstops?
A certain recovering addict who'll be patrolling CF in Cinci the rest of the year may disagree with this assessment. I certainly do.
He would have to outplay a hundred and fifty pound midget. Pretty clearly no AL rookie has been nearly as good as lil Dusty Pedroia.
Pence has 3 less homers but has 5 more RBI
Hamilton will have to keep homering every 15 at bats while getting another 300+ at bats in the process, or Pence will have to slump to below .300
Both could certainly happen. But if Pence finishes the year over .300 with decent power numbers, I think he'll win it.
IF Hamilton stays healthy, I think two things are likely:
1. By the end of the year, Pence's OPS won't be anywhere near 1.03. Both players will likely be near .900.
2. Hamilton's HR and RBI stats will be more impressive than Pence's.
Given where Hamilton's been the past 2 years, Pence will have to keep his current ridiculous pace to win over him, IF Hamilton stays healthy.
Do you really need my opinion on this, Garth? Do you really need to ask me for that?
A certain recovering addict who'll be patrolling CF in Cinci the rest of the year may disagree with this assessment. I certainly do.
As do I. Shouldn't Lincecum be considered the favorite at this point? It seems like every time he pitches he gets national media attention. He's still undefeated in his professional career, with a K per inning and a fairly good ERA that seems likely to improve. His small stature and unusual delivery probably give him some bonus points with the voters as well.
In the AL, it's pretty obvious. Pedroia is like Pujols at the plate and Ozzie in the field. He's a special talent, a once-in-a-generation type player. I'm guessing he takes the award unanimously, with every voter neglecting to fill in a second or third place player out of deference for the sheer magnitude by which he eclipses the field.
Nope. He spent more than 45 days on the 25-man roster (called up on 7/6/06).
-- MWE
The name was familiar, but I had forgotten all about him. I had to go look him up on Wiki. Great reference. Works for me!!
Link
But he totally stunned the field in Munich to salvage something that turned out to be the most disastrous Olympics for the USA team ever.
Matsui lost because of anti Japanese voter bias. Weren't there a couple guys that left him off the ballot completely because they felt that Japanese League veterans shouldn't be eligible?
If Matsui won, it would have been because of East coast voter bias and/or pro-Japanese voter bias and/or winning team voter bias and/or RBI voter bias.
Matsui: .287 AVG, 16 HR, 106 RBI, 2 SB -- .788 OPS
Berroa: .287 AVG, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 21 SB -- .789 OPS
Even if Berroa won for the wrong reasons, he was the rightful winner.
(Sidenote: BBTF thread that pertains to this one.)
Okay, which Red Sock? ;)
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One thing I forgot to mention about Berroa/Matsui -- position. Berroa had his production from shortstop, Matsui from left field.
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