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Royal Ingenuity
— Where Pine Tar and Powder Blue are Revered

Friday, March 23, 2007

Does Dice-K win the AL Rookie of the Year?

Originally posed to Bill James without much luck, this is a question I’m very curious about. I hold a staked interest in it because Alex Gordon, already an average or above-average third baseman who has yet to play in the MLB, would otherwise be considered the front runner for the AL ROY were it not for Dice-K, who has been occasionally mentioned as someone to watch for the AL Cy Young.

I also know that this very issue—Royals young’un vs. Japanese import—has been played out before. In 2003, when Angel Berroa had a great rookie year for the surprise Royals, they awarded him the ROY over Japanese veteran Hideki Matsui of the Yankees. If you look at their 2003 numbers (Matsui | Berroa), Berroa had a slightly better year, though, so I don’t know if we can draw any conclusions from the way that the voters acted.

To me—being biased, of course—a rookie of the year award shouldn’t go to someone who isn’t a rookie worldwide. But let’s say that Daisuke Matsuzaka has a tremendous year, and is a finalist for the Cy Young, even if he doesn’t win. You can’t deny a guy with that great a year the ROY, even if he isn’t a big league rookie, can you?

Sooooo—Three questions: (1) What percentage chance does Dice-K have to win the AL ROY?, (2) What percentage chance does Alex Gordon have to win the AL ROY?, (3) Let’s pretend there are no other rookies in the AL. What’s your official guess for the AL Rookie of the Year award: Dice-K or Gordon?

Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: March 23, 2007 at 02:40 PM | 40 comment(s)
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   1. Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: March 23, 2007 at 03:39 PM (#2316804)
(1) 30% (2) 28% (3) Dice-K
   2. Kyle S Posted: March 23, 2007 at 03:49 PM (#2316813)
1. 20%
2. 15%
3. Matsuzaka-san
   3. DCA Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:12 PM (#2316829)
35%
30%
Matsuzaka


Although I'm rooting for Matsuzaka to suck so I don't have to read or hear the Dice-K moniker anymore. The faster he fades into oblivion the faster the name disappears. I'm also rooting for Gordon to explode because he's on one of my scoresheet teams, and it's time for the Royals to be competitive again.
   4. PJ Martinez Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:31 PM (#2316845)
There's not much logical reason for this, but it might help Matsuzaka's case that he's about three years younger than Matsui was, and also slightly younger than Ichiro, who did win the ROY.
   5. RoyalsFan84 Posted: March 23, 2007 at 05:01 PM (#2316859)
The biggest difference, to me, is that Dice-K is a pitcher and not a position player. Only 5 of the last 25 AL ROYs have been pitchers. Only one, Verlander, was a starter. I think if Gordon has any kind of a dominating stretch during the season, then the award is his to lose.

1. 25
2. 50
3. Gordon

If Gordon hits .280, 20, 80 and plays well in the field without any high-level experience in professional ball, I think he will be okay.

It should be noted that I did pick Memphis to lose in the second round of the tournament so what do I know?
   6. Kyle S Posted: March 23, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2316872)
When was the last time one of the pre-season favorites for the ROY actually won it? Here's how I recall the last few years' worth of races

yr lg consensus roy actual roy
2006 NL Hermida H Ramirez
2006 AL Johjima Verlander
2005 NL Atkins Howard
2005 AL McPherson H Street
2004 NL K Matsui Bay
2004 AL B Crosby Crosby</pre>
   7. Kyle S Posted: March 23, 2007 at 05:33 PM (#2316880)
and the answer to my question is "2004". Genius.
   8. jim in providence Posted: March 23, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2316974)
a rookie of the year award shouldn’t go to someone who isn’t a rookie worldwide. But let’s say that Daisuke Matsuzaka has a tremendous year, and is a finalist for the Cy Young, even if he doesn’t win. You can’t deny a guy with that great a year the ROY, even if he isn’t a big league rookie, can you?

I'm not sure I would - non-MLB professional leagues are not the equivalent of MLB, and anyway it's hardly DK's fault that he hasn't pitched in MLB until now - but you seem to be denying the ROY to him based on the first sentence of the quoted remark.

I would put my money on Gordon. I think DK will be excellent, but I think Gordon will be, too. The whole "he's a real rookie" thing will work for him. That, and the "Let's throw KC a bone" thing. Of course, I'm not sure that Royals fans should want Gordon to be ROY. It's kind of like the Grammy for "New Artist of the Year."
   9. Andy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2316988)
It's going to be interesting to see how this guy holds up pitching every five days instead of every seven, and pitching against Major League lineups rather than those Japanese League ones. This is going to be a double test of durability that he's never had to face before, and there's really no way to predict how it'll all come out.
   10. villageidiom Posted: March 23, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2316989)
To me—being biased, of course—a rookie of the year award shouldn’t go to someone who isn’t a rookie worldwide.


Unless I'm missing something, Gordon has played a full season somewhere in the world.
   11. Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: March 24, 2007 at 12:25 AM (#2317034)
Unless I'm missing something, Gordon has played a full season somewhere in the world.

Very well: A rookie of the year award shouldn't go to someone who has spent a year at the top level available in their system.
   12. Ben Posted: March 24, 2007 at 12:53 AM (#2317047)
I agree, the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year award absolutely should not be awarded to anyone who has spent significant time at the top level available to them.
   13. villageidiom Posted: March 24, 2007 at 01:15 AM (#2317054)
Since the NCAA is a separate system from MLB, and Division I is the top level, I guess Gordon is disqualified.

If you're talking about professional baseball systems, then Gordon would qualify... But Jackie Robinson, for whom the award is named, would not have qualified.

I think the BBWAA already has their own arbitrary line. If you want to start your own award, feel free to draw your line wherever you please.
   14. Eraser-X is dominating this site! Posted: March 24, 2007 at 01:24 AM (#2317055)
I think we should wait until Matsuzaka pitches a half dozen starts or so against All-Star teams of players playing for something substantial like say, national pride, and shows that he is able to perform at a high level under those conditions before we start handing him hardware.

Oh wait, nevermind.
   15. Halofan Posted: March 24, 2007 at 01:28 AM (#2317057)
Who won the MVP the year Bobby Crosby was the pre-season consensus to win it?
   16. Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: March 24, 2007 at 02:26 AM (#2317062)
But Jackie Robinson, for whom the award is named, would not have qualified.

The AFC trophy is named after Lamar Hunt -- he wouldn't have been able to win his own trophy, were he still alive. (Unless owners are a part of the team? He gets a ring I'm sure, but he's not actually a part of the team is he?)

In any event, I don't think Robinson should have won one, either. Unless, of course, you'd care to say that the Negro Leagues were wholly inferior (like a minor league) to the Major Leagues.
   17. Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: March 24, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2317063)
[...]a half dozen starts[...]

Do not move. Remain completely still. The small sample size monster's around there, somewhere, and he has movement-based vision.

[...]All-Star teams of players playing for something substantial like say, national pride[...]

Do you think the Americans were playing for national pride? Did they have their best men out there?
   18. Eraser-X is dominating this site! Posted: March 24, 2007 at 02:46 AM (#2317064)
Tongue-in-cheek comment taken totally literally aside, I simply said "All-Star teams of players". I do believe that the U.S. team looked exactly like an All-Star team--tons of stars put together and a few weird random picks. From the interviews I read, I think that they were indeed playing for national pride.

Yes, it was a small sample size. That means that it's not scientific or conclusive, but it also doesn't mean nothing. A lot of people before the tournament said that the East Asian teams would be blasted off the field, and most people who knew the first thing about the teams involved said that wasn't the case.

Then the East Asian teams appeared to be the best two teams to take the field over the small number of games played.

In fact, the top three teams in the tournament were comprised mostly of non-MLB players, once again over a small number of games (Smaller than what I said--Matsuzaka only pitched three games IIRC).

I think that's completely awesome. Either it means that small sample size allowed something unlikely to occur or it means that our national/world pasttime will continue to get deeper and better over the next couple of decades.

Incidentally, I have no idea why you use the U.S. team as an example. I don't think Matsuzaka faced them at all. Perhaps my original comment created that confusion. If so, I apologize.
   19. Garth has been one-uped by Brian Bannister Posted: March 24, 2007 at 03:02 AM (#2317066)
I was playing Devil's advocate (except the small sample size thing, which was purely reflexive because of how much time I spend at this stupid site), but I think you've soundly beat me there. I agree wholeheartedly.

Then the East Asian teams appeared to be the best two teams to take the field over the small number of games played.

This supports the idea that the Japanese league may not be as good as the MLB, but they most certainly aren't wholly inferior either. This is why I think Matsuzaka shouldn't be in any type of running for the ROY.
   20. MM1f Posted: March 24, 2007 at 04:58 AM (#2317073)
"If you look at their 2003 numbers (Matsui | Berroa), Berroa had a slightly better year, though, so I don’t know if we can draw any conclusions from the way that the voters acted."

Jody Gerut actually outhit Matsui by a pretty fair margin that year too.

As for my take on this, no Japanese Leaguers shouldn't be eligible for RoY
   21. Darren Posted: March 24, 2007 at 08:29 AM (#2317080)
Don't know about the rest of the country, but in the northeast Matsui is one of the more overrated players I've seen. He's a pretty good hitter for a corner OF but a terrible defender. Listening to people talk about him, you'd think he was Jason Bay rather Bobby Higginson.

I think if it's close, Gordon gets the nod because a lot of people feel that guys who've already playing in a Major League shouldn't get it. I don't think it will be very close though.
   22. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2007 at 08:40 AM (#2317081)
"Listening to people talk about him, you'd think he was Jason Bay rather Bobby Higginson."

And he's signed for four more ####### years. That is Cashman's worst move since taking over. Not a terrible move, but it doesn't give them much flexibility in developing Melky/finding a superior talent. If they can get him to first (and play it decently, he's athletic, I think he's capable of that) or when Giambi is gone, DH him, then he will have more value to the team.

"I don't think it will be very close though."

You think Gordon is going to be that much better then Dice-K?
   23. seeking a clever screen name since 1999 Posted: March 24, 2007 at 09:00 AM (#2317085)
it's hardly DK's fault that he hasn't pitched in MLB until now

Well, he did sign a contract. He could have left Japan for say, South America after HS, signed with an MLB organization as a free agent, and worked his way up through the minors. It's not like he was kidnapped from his parents home and sold into slavery.

He's a pretty good hitter for a corner OF but a terrible defender.

Isn't this exactly why we have left field in the first place?
   24. Darren Posted: March 24, 2007 at 09:27 AM (#2317088)
Cowboy, I'm surprised to hear you agree that emphatically on Matsui. And I should point out that when I say Matsui is overrated, I don't mean on this board. People here seem to have a pretty good handle.

I think one of the best things that happened to the Yankees was that Matsui had an injury that was so severe that it forced the end of his games streak. If it had stayed intact, you'd be seeing a lot less of Melky, and there'd be little chance of moving Matsui to DH for fear of it making the DH streak inferior to Ripken's and Gehrig's. As it stands now, he can be rested against tough lefties and, when it becomes necessary, moved to DH. Of course, if Torre's still in charge, he won't be moved.

You think Gordon is going to be that much better then Dice-K?

Silly me. Why are we even talking about these chumps when Pedroia's going to destroya them all?
   25. Darren Posted: March 24, 2007 at 09:30 AM (#2317089)
Isn't this exactly why we have left field in the first place?

I thought it was more for excellent hitters who can't field. Either way, the perception of Matsui is that he's a great hitter--an RBI guy!--and a decent fielder. I've heard Michael Kay say, repeatedly, "When Matsui came over to the US, he was a great fielder. Now, all of a sudden, he seems to be barely average!" Both of those assessments seem to really outstrip what's happening in the field.
   26. Daryn Posted: March 24, 2007 at 09:37 AM (#2317090)
Didn't the Rays keep Delmon Young's at bats down to allow him to qualify for ROY? If so, I don't see how Gordon could beat him. Dice-K could, I guess.
   27. Daryn Posted: March 24, 2007 at 09:38 AM (#2317091)
To answer the question:

25
10
Dice-K
   28. Rafael Bellylard (p8p) Posted: March 24, 2007 at 09:41 AM (#2317092)
I think Dice-K is going to have a harder time getting the RoY (of which I have no bias against Japanese League players....they didn't set the standard, MLB did). The hype is so high that if he goes 16-11, 4.20, he probably won't get votes because those numbers would be considered disapointing.

I think he'll end up third behind Gordon and someone else (that person neither being Pedroia or Delmon Young).
   29. kevin Posted: March 24, 2007 at 09:42 AM (#2317093)
Matsui's offensive numbers are pretty damed good. Career OPS of 126. And until last year, he played every day.
   30. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2007 at 11:06 AM (#2317105)
"Matsui's offensive numbers are pretty damed good. Career OPS of 126."

No doubt he's an excellent hitter. Other then his rookie year, he's probably been a 20 hitter in the AL when he's played. He also has a tendency to have big at bats (See, I didn't say clutch), but he's a bad defensive corner outfielder and a slow, and overly conservative baserunner. All that eats into his value. I still think he's a good player, better then Bobby Higginson. He's just a limited player who should be DHing, but can't because we already have one. I just like Melky more and I've never warmed up to him because of his first year with Charlie Steiner insisting that he was a great player because of his rbis when he was pretty average.
   31. Darren Posted: March 24, 2007 at 11:13 AM (#2317107)
He's an excellent hitter in isolation, but as a LF, he's only a pretty good hitter. Higginson's best 3 years were OPSs of 146, 133, and 132. Hideki's are 139, 133, and 125. As Hideki's 33 this year and coming off a wrist injury, I don't think he's likely to top those numbers.

This is not to say that Hideki's a bad player (Higginson was pretty valuable for a while), but it's just to say he's not an All-Star. Like you, I like Melky a lot after last year and I'll be rooting for the Yankees to bury him or trade him for peanuts. (Of course, they're too smart to do either.)
   32. Darren Posted: March 24, 2007 at 11:25 AM (#2317111)
According to BPro, over the past 3 years, the average AL LF has hit something like .350 OBP/.450 SLG. That means that Hideki's career 857 OPS would be something like 7 percent above average (no park adjustments). He probably gets a couple points for the heavy OBP.

That's enough to make him ~23 BRAA/150 games. How much does his defense siphon off of that figure?
   33. kevin Posted: March 24, 2007 at 12:46 PM (#2317141)
No more than 10, I would estimate. Probably more in the neighborhood of 5. He isn't all that bad. He's below average but you have to be a truly horrendous fielder to do very badly compared to your peers if you are a leftfielder.
   34. DCW3 * Posted: March 24, 2007 at 01:39 PM (#2317158)
The Marcel projections + defense I use have Matsui at +8 total runs per 150 games. That includes AROM's defensive projection for him of -9, which is very poor for an LF--I think Manny and Preston Wilson are the only left fielders with a worse projection.
   35. willcarrollsux Posted: March 25, 2007 at 12:17 PM (#2317479)
I don't know, but I do know that "Dice-K" is one lame-ass nickname.
   36. Wombat Pete Posted: March 25, 2007 at 12:24 PM (#2317487)
I don't know, but I do know that "Dice-K" is one lame-ass nickname.


And so spontaneous! Unquestionably the inspired expression of your genuine Amerkin home-town baseball fan rather than the (uninspired) packaged product of some cubicle in the Red Sox PR department.
   37. mike f Posted: March 25, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2317519)
It's really only a (semi)clever way to write his name, since that's how it's pronounced.
   38. Darren Posted: March 25, 2007 at 01:37 PM (#2317526)
I don't mind the nickname Dice-K, but I don't like when reporters use it in quotes rather than spelling out his name.
   39. baudib Posted: March 26, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2317791)
When Cooperstown starts inducting players based largely on their Japanese careers, then we can start disqualifying Japanese veterans from ROY awards.
   40. villageidiom Posted: March 27, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2319059)
In any event, I don't think Robinson should have won one, either. Unless, of course, you'd care to say that the Negro Leagues were wholly inferior (like a minor league) to the Major Leagues.


Nope.

I'm suggesting that the award be based on the BBWAA rules. The BBWAA definition of "rookie" ignores time not played in MLB. Neither NPB, nor Negro Leagues, nor college, nor minor leagues, nor anything else counts toward the qualifications.

So far, you haven't advocated that the BBWAA change their rules; you've only said that some players should not have been awarded, on the basis of something other than the official qualifications. Like I suggested, if you don't like the rules, start your own award. If you'd like to suggest that the BBWAA change their award qualifications, go right ahead. But all you've done so far is to suggest that the BBWAA ignore their own rules in issuing their own award.

I am curious, though. I doubt you intended it this way, but the above quote means, "Garth supports Jackie Robinson's winning the ROTY, only if villageidiom says the Negro Leagues were wholly inferior to MLB." Is that really what you meant? Or were you unwavering on Jackie, but trying to race-bait me? Or something else? What does superiority or inferiority of any non-MLB league have to do with my argument?
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