I’m back
I don’t know why this is newsworthy, but I’m a little sluggish in the brain and the only song title I could think of that seemed appropriate here was “I’m Back” from a pretty amazing blues guitarist.
It didn’t start as a blogging hiatus, but it ended up like that. I was just enjoying my early summer way too much. It was an amazing couple of weeks off—seeing the outdoors, getting some sun… weird, human stuff—and I’m glad I took them. I feel entirely refreshed from finals and school and my first few weeks at my new job and now I can focus on more important things: things like baseball.
Anyway, my laptop’s up off the DL for now and so I’m going to go get some lunch and then try to get myself caught up here at BBTF and FanGraphs before work at 4:30.
While I’m getting myself caught up, please feel free to use this as a Royals open thread.
Ideas for discussion:
--Shane Costa / Emil Brown—worst LF combination of our time, or worst LF combination of all time?
--Mark Teahen is pulling balls and hitting them well. I was at last night’s game and his dinger was a line drive down the first base line into the top of the wall that bounced over. Very, very impressive stuff and extremely encouraging coming from him.
--How hurt is Gil Meche? I actually don’t really know. I just heard from my dad he left a game he was at early from an injury, looked bad anyway, and I haven’t heard anything since. Some Royals fan I am, eh?
--I’m going to challenge Buddy Bell to take himself to new heights: would it be possible to get three of your best relievers—Jimmy Gobble, Zack Greinke and David Riske—not only jammed into one inning, but one OUT? Think about it.
--Did Angel Berroa cost the Royals one or three more runs than Tony Pena would have last night? I know the one for sure, but there was one play Pena might have made which would have saved one run, and, since Alex Gordon underhanded the loose ball so softly to Buck, two runs.
Also, this may sound pathetic, but would someone fill me on on major Royals news from the last couple of weeks? I got a lot of it, but, for example, why is Angel Berroa, Esteban German, and Tony Pena all on the same 25-man roster? Why did Billy Butler get sent down?
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The bad news is that the ERA+ is even lower than last year, 82 to 87. An 82 OPS+ would have scored 43.5 fewer runs last year, so almost half of the payoff from the better pitching is getting eaten up pulling along an even worse offense.
The thing that really sucks about that OPS+ figure is that some of the guys we're counting on for production have been culprits.
Ryan Shealy: 62 OPS+ in 98 AB
Alex Gordon: 57 OPS+ in 168 AB
That's ~17 runs below league average (not adjusted for position) thus far from two spots where we could reasonably hope to be above average going into the season.
Finally there's the corpse corps. These are guys the Royals should be looking to replace anyway, but who have sucked it up this year. I'm starting to realize that what really makes a bad team horrible is the number of at bats and innings it gives to guys who are just completely overmatched.
Tony Pena: 68 OPS+ in 178 AB
Emil Brown: 41 OPS+ in 122 AB
Jason Larue: 7 OPS+ in 53 AB
Shane Costa: 10 OPS+ in 37 AB
Angel Berroa: -30 OPS+ in 11 AB
That's a weighted OPS+ of 43.7 in 401 AB, which is 22.2% of the team's total AB for the year. This group produced 35 runs below league average over those 401 AB.
The Royals have good minor league outfielders, which means that 159 of those 401 AB can be replaced from within in the near future. As ever, the easiest way to improve the Royals lineup would be to trade for a hitting shortstop, thus replacing 189 AB of 62 OPS+ production.
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