Interview with Bill James
Bill James, the father of sabermetrics and a man whom Time Magazine listed as one of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2006, was kind enough to answer a few of my questions. I asked about the Red Sox and the Royals, as well touching on a number of other subjects.
Q: Are the Red Sox going to make the playoffs this year?
A: I don’t know what is going to happen.
Q: Does Dice-K win the AL Rookie of the Year?
A: I don’t know what is going to happen.
Q: If Dice-K is successful in Boston, does it help the Red Sox’s popularity in Japan? Can they ever compete with the Mariners in this regard?
A: I don’t think we’re trying to compete with the Mariners in Japan. If we are, it’s certainly not my area. But we have about 80 Japanese writers and reporters covering the Red Sox on a daily basis, so we must be doing alright over there.
Q: What needs to happen for the Red Sox to have a successful season?
A: Our pitching should be pretty good. We have to score more runs than we did last year.
Q: In a best-case scenario for Alex Gordon’s career, will baseball historians consider Gordon to be anywhere near the same league as George Brett and Mike Schmidt?
A: I don’t have any idea.
Q: Gil Meche was signed for five years, $55 million. Give me a very short sentence about the signing.
A: Good luck.
Q: The Royals have said more than once that Meche shares many traits with guys like Chris Carpenter, that whole early-injury, late-bloomer thing, and that there’s a good possibility that he follows that career path. What are your thoughts here? Is this a legitimate reason to sign a guy?
A: Well, I don’t see close parallels between Gil Meche and Chris Carpenter. Gil Meche was the best pitcher available to the Royals for the money they had at the time they were in the market. He’s healthy and he wins half his games. Whether he’ll get better....I don’t know.
Q: Compare and contrast team-hired statistical analysts and independent analysts. Has your job with the Red Sox changed the way that you approach a problem, the way you think or research about baseball?
A: Certainly it has changed. There are a lot more aspects to the problem from the team’s standpoint than there are from the fan’s standpoint. From my standpoint, I kind of needed a change of viewpoint, and I think my work has benefitted from being required to look at problems in a different way.
Q: Shortly after Allard Baird stopped his work as GM for the Royals, he began his work with the Red Sox. What has it been like working with him? How is he different in person than what we saw of him as the Royals GM?
A: I enjoy working with Allard. . . .he’s a great guy. Allard is very self-disciplined, has his life very much under control. That doesn’t tend to make him transparent.
Q: How badly does Fenway’s Green Monster skew outfielder defense stats? Baseball is the only sport that comes to mind where the boundaries are not completely set. How much are defensive stats – the last frontier, it seems – altered by the various shapes and sizes of outfields?
A: A lot. It’s a real problem, but we’re working through it. When I young, we didn’t really have a good handle on how parks effected hitting stats or pitching stats. But it’s not really a huge problem....it’s just something you work through.
Q: Do you have any projects you’re working on now? What non-Red Sox stuff have you been up to?
A: I’m actually writing a non-baseball book at the moment.... a book about famous crimes. That’s my number one non-Red Sox project.
Q: I’ll disqualify the Red Sox here – who is your favorite current player in the MLB?
A: El Duque? El Duque is fun. Gary Sheffield is a lot of fun. I’m a huge Roger Clemens fan, always have been.
Q: Look 50 years into the future. What areas have sabermetrics conquered, and what are we still clueless about?
A: We’ll still be trying to figure out what to do with the steroid-era stats.
Q: What chance do you give the Jayhawks for taking the title this year?
A: I have no idea.
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I appreciate Mr. James’ time and answers. I also want to thank Mike Webber for his help in getting this done.
But, of course, that isn’t the end. Please feel free to answer the questions yourself. Consider it a Royals and Red Sox open thread. There obviously wasn’t much conjecture on James’ part—that’s where you guys come in. I’ll take one right now—I can guarantee the Jayhawks are taking the national title, no doubt.
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I've got KU winning it all in my bracket, but I'll say this much: Oregon can beat anybody in the country if they shoot the ball well. Problem with them is, they can lose to just about anyone too. The Ducks are talented as hell...and even more inconsistent than they are talented.
A:El Duque? El Duque is fun. Gary Sheffield is a lot of fun. I’m a huge Roger Clemens fan, always have been.
Perfect answer. This man's alright.
The man has taken the ideas originally articulated in the Jeff Bagwell Comment and continues to take them to new, exciting places. I look forward to his continued evolution.
Pass.
I had kinda planned for the Red Sox readers out there to help give a more opinionated look at those questions.
I’m actually writing a non-baseball book at the moment.... a book about famous crimes. That’s my number one non-Red Sox project.
This is one question I'm very curious about -- I'm woefully under-read in terms of overseas baseball. That question was posed under my assumption that the M's own Japan thanks to a five-year head start with Ichiro. Is this accurate?
I know the Royals prospect Justin Huber was one of the first Australian baseball players I'd ever heard of. Does that give the Royals an advantage in Australia? Is an advantage there even worth it?
"3. Dr. Crippen
Pass."
Brewers had signed Dave Nilsson and Graeme Lloyd out of Australia in the 80s; Dodgers had Craig Shipley.
I'm not nearly so confident that players "were" using steroids, and that it "did" have an impact on the numbers.
Admittedly it's just one season's worth of data, but the stats from 2006 -- the first year in which MLB's much tougher drug-testing policy was in effect -- indicate no discernible effect on stats. If this remains the case, it means that:
a. There was very little steroid use before 2006
or
b. Steroid use has very little impact on stats
or
c. The drug testing protocol hasn't significantly diminished steroid use
Personally, I think both (a) and (b) are unlikely, leaving (c) as the likelier case. But the fact is that none of us knows.
At any rate, I find little reason to characterize the steroid era in the past tense.
I agree with the first part, but disagree with the second part. He doesn't know what the impact (if any) there was.
Who's up for a fifty-year long thread on that topic? I'll bring snacks.
Unless they're Twinkies, I don't think the snacks would be very tasty towards the thread's end...
Hey, we know how to preserve food in scandinavia!
Wikipedia: Surströmming
I don't think he knows what the impact is, never said he did. Which is kind of why he said what he said about this issue in this interview.
I may never eat again.
That's nothing, take a look at the hundred year old egg.
Since this thread is kind of zig-zagging at the moment...
I was sort surprised that Erik Larson's (DEVIL AND THE WHITE CITY) Crippen book barely mentioned Tesla in the Marconi half of the story.
Tesla gets mentioned twice in the whole book; nothing about how Marconi was utilitzing some of Tesla's equipment (and was trying to hide that fact), the manuevering he used to try and weasel around patents... heck, in the part wrapping up Marconi's life and legacy, the later Supreme Court decision doesn't even get mentioned.
Oliver Lodge gets a lot of play, but no Tesla.
Wrong book (or wrong Doctor/murderer). Devil and the White City featured Dr. H. H. Holmes.
No, Larson's Crippen book - "THUNDERSTRUCK".
I just put the "DEVIL AND THE WHITE CITY" in parentheses for those who might not remember the author by name, but are familiar with the DATWC...
several people have liked its taste on the first try
After reading the description, I'd assume several = two or three.
I always wonder how hungry the first person had to be to say, "Fish that smells like old garbage? Ah, what the hey, gimme a taste."
I think it had more to do with the necessity of figuring out a method of maintaining edible fish that didn't require freezing. Fermentation pickling has a long and noble history. The problem with fermented fish is that they stink like hell. But they are edible and will keep from spoiling above freezing temperatures because of the alcohol that is generated during fermentation. And it's not like the peoples of northern scandinavia had a lot of choices to satisfy their palates. Pine comes and lichens aren't too tasty either.
Did John Henry buy the Kansas Jayhawks when I wasn't looking?
Staple. Blood. Red Sock.
Indeed. Sauerkraut and kimchee are not going to win Best Odor awards either, but they are perfectly delicious. And good kkaktugi is to die for.
You left out the [Citation needed] right after that line, which means that the concept that anyone liked it on the first try is questionable.
I certainly wouldn't eat pine come.
Arthur made the trip (+13 in 19:24) but so did his propensity to commit dumb fouls (plus the one called on him for not very aggressively fighting off Randal Falker pinning one of Arthur's arms behind his back while posting up, a bad call that went the Salukis' way).
Kaun played about as many minutes as appropriate against SIU. I don't think chasing even a one-legged Matt Shaw around would have played to Sasha's strengths. (I do thank Chris Lowery for having the immobile Shaw on the court when Brandon Rush scored the game's final basket.)
I don't know what was more surprising, KU shooting 60% from the field against SIU or SIU getting damn near half the possible offensive rebounds.
Brewers had signed Dave Nilsson and Graeme Lloyd out of Australia in the 80s; Dodgers had Craig Shipley.
FWIW, Craig Shipley is now Boston's Vice President for Professional and International Scouting, so if there is an Australian Advantage one might assume that the Red Sox have this coveted position sewn up. Between the Gyroballs and Fearsome Boomerang Pitches the rest of the league won't stand a chance.
Just before the Sun incinerates the world, this is how I imagine humanity's final conversation going:
Scorched, Blinded Human #1: What about LASIK?
Scorched, Blinded Human #2: That's sophistry!
Scorched, Blinded Human #1: Bonds never admitted steroid use.
Scorched, Blinded Human #1: Read the BTF Wikiiiiii.....
(The last of Earth's oxygen ignites.)
Julio Franco: Hey, where is everybody?
Well, Keith Richards will probably be looking for drugs.
That probably where I got that second hand. I think that I saw that in the Lounge.
Of coures. What the hell else is there to eat in Iceland?
Sheep and lava.
put it in a barrel
save it for a rainy day
Catch a pickled herring
put it in a barrel
watch the neighbors move away
or
d. The muscle mass gained through steroid use didn't all go *poof!* in one year.
or
e. Steroid use was at least as prevalent among pitchers as it was among hitters.
Whale blubber snow cones.
Big ballgame today.
Oh yeah, there's them too.
Did James get into a beef with Bagwell or some of his fans? Was that player the focus of some ugly drama with rival seamheads?
You'd think Bagwell would be a pleasant topic for Bill... his correct projection of a big rookie season earned him a lot of positive publicity.
I think I read his explanation somewhere, maybe in an online chat. Basically, he struggled with it, but couldn't think of anything good (i.e. interesting) to write. In general, he had less to say about modern and current ballplayers in the NBJHBA than the older guys.
Also, Jeff Bagwell killed his dad.
Based on the profile of those players who have flunked drug tests (as well as basic common sense), this is almost certainly true. To the extent that it is true, it would be a factor mitigating against steroid use having a dramatic impact on league-wide stats.
Still, I remain highly skeptical over the efficacy of testing. To name just one huge issue: there is no test for HGH. Therefore, the idea that there "was" a PED-prevalent "era" in MLB strikes me as more hopeful than reasoned.
Assuming equal steroid use by pitchers and hitters has an exactly zero impact on play balance, in other words that hitter use and pitcher use exactly evens out. It goes without saying that that's an assumption and not an axiom.
That leads to noncommital answers when the interviewer is looking for opinions. He doesn't want to offer opinions. He wants to offer answers.
I thought Diamond said Vikings ate fish (and lots of it) everywhere but in Greenland.
Whenever I read an interview with James, I get a little annoyed ... with the interviewer. It seems to me that there has been enough of them by now that we should be able to predict which questions he will or won't answer (see 53).
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