Royals lineup analysis

Since it’s past midnight while I type this and the Mets play the Cards Sunday night at 7 p.m. CST, does this mean that baseball starts today? Hooray! It’s also Opening Day Eve, for the fans of the 28 other teams. What a great time of year!

Anywho, inspired by Billy Beane’s comments and Ken Arneson, I wanted to use David Pinto’s Lineup Analysis to crunch some numbers on the Royals’ upcoming lineup.

My goal is to see what happens when you plug Ross Gload into a lineup (and take either Emil Brown or Ryan Shealy or Mike Sweeney out). I also want to play around with what Esteban German does to the lineup, mathematically speaking.

I’ll be using Baseball Prospectus 2007 for my OBPs and SLGs. Cliff notes at the bottom.

(Sidenote: Since John Buck and Jason LaRue seem to be splitting time down the middle (and because their PECOTA projections are pretty similar—.314/.369 and .310/.416), I’m going to be taking the average of their projected OBPs and SLGs and making a huge slugger of a man named “Catcher.” Eyeballing it, let’s say Catcher will hit .312/.393.)

====LINEUP A—WITHOUT ROSS GLOAD====

Runs per game for lineup: 4.962.

Top five lineups [ordered by runs per game]:
5.056 DeJesus Gordon Brown Sweeney Teahen Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.055 DeJesus Teahen Brown Gordon Sweeney Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.054 DeJesus Sweeney Brown Gordon Teahen Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.054 DeJesus Gordon Brown Sweeney Teahen Catcher Shealy Pena Grudzielanek
5.053 DeJesus Teahen Brown Gordon Sweeney Catcher Shealy Pena Grudzielanek

Worst five lineups:
4.743 Pena Catcher Sweeney Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy
4.746 Pena Catcher Sweeney Grudzielanek Brown Teahen DeJesus Gordon Shealy
4.746 Pena Catcher Teahen Grudzielanek Sweeney DeJesus Brown Gordon Shealy
4.747 Catcher Pena Sweeney Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy
4.747 Pena Catcher Shealy Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Teahen Gordon Sweeney

====LINEUP B—ROSS GLOAD, IN FOR EMIL BROWN AT LEFT FIELD====

Runs per game for lineup: 5.001.

Top five lineups:
5.088 DeJesus Gordon Gload Sweeney Teahen Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.087 DeJesus Teahen Gload Gordon Sweeney Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.086 DeJesus Teahen Sweeney Gordon Gload Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.086 DeJesus Sweeney Gload Gordon Teahen Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.086 DeJesus Gordon Gload Sweeney Teahen Catcher Shealy Pena Grudzielanek

Worst five lineups:
4.778 Pena Catcher Teahen Grudzielanek Sweeney DeJesus Gload Gordon Shealy
4.779 Pena Catcher Sweeney Grudzielanek Gload DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy
4.779 Pena Catcher Sweeney DeJesus Grudzielanek Gload Teahen Gordon Shealy
4.779 Pena Grudzielanek Sweeney DeJesus Catcher Gload Teahen Gordon Shealy
4.780 Pena Catcher Gload Grudzielanek Sweeney DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy

====LINEUP C—ROSS GLOAD, IN FOR RYAN SHEALY AT FIRST BASE====

Runs per game for lineup: 4.988.

Top five lineups:
5.081 DeJesus Teahen Brown Gordon Gload Catcher Sweeney Pena Grudzielanek
5.081 DeJesus Teahen Brown Gordon Gload Sweeney Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.079 DeJesus Gload Brown Gordon Teahen Catcher Sweeney Pena Grudzielanek
5.079 DeJesus Gload Brown Gordon Teahen Sweeney Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.076 DeJesus Teahen Gload Gordon Brown Catcher Sweeney Pena Grudzielanek

Worst five lineups:
4.780 Pena Catcher Teahen Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Gload Gordon Sweeney
4.781 Pena Catcher Sweeney Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Gload Teahen Gordon
4.782 Pena Catcher Gload Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Teahen Gordon Sweeney
4.783 Pena Catcher Sweeney Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Gload Gordon Teahen
4.783 Pena Catcher Teahen Grudzielanek Brown Gload DeJesus Gordon Sweeney

====LINEUP D—ROSS GLOAD, IN FOR MIKE SWEENEY AS DESIGNATED HITTER====

Runs per game for lineup: 4.989.

Top five lineups:
5.083 DeJesus Teahen Brown Gordon Gload Catcher Shealy Pena Grudzielanek
5.083 DeJesus Teahen Brown Gordon Gload Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.081 DeJesus Gload Brown Gordon Teahen Catcher Shealy Pena Grudzielanek
5.081 DeJesus Gload Brown Gordon Teahen Shealy Catcher Pena Grudzielanek
5.079 DeJesus Teahen Gload Gordon Brown Catcher Shealy Pena Grudzielanek

Worst five lineups:
4.782 Pena Catcher Teahen Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Gload Gordon Shealy
4.783 Pena Catcher Shealy Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Gload Teahen Gordon
4.783 Pena Catcher Gload Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy
4.785 Pena Catcher Teahen Grudzielanek Brown Gload DeJesus Gordon Shealy
4.785 Pena Catcher Shealy Grudzielanek Brown DeJesus Gload Gordon Teahen

====LINEUP E—GERMAN FOR GRUDZ AT SECOND BASE (GLOAD IN LEFT)====

Runs per game for lineup: 5.052.

Top five lineups:
5.185 DeJesus Gordon Gload Shealy Teahen Catcher Sweeney Pena German
5.185 DeJesus Gordon Gload Shealy Teahen Sweeney Catcher Pena German
5.184 DeJesus Gordon Gload Sweeney Teahen Catcher Shealy Pena German
5.184 DeJesus Gordon Gload Sweeney Teahen Shealy Catcher Pena German
5.183 DeJesus Teahen Gload Gordon Sweeney Catcher Shealy Pena German

Worst five lineups:
4.850 Pena Catcher Teahen German Sweeney DeJesus Gload Gordon Shealy
4.851 Pena Catcher Sweeney German Gload DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy
4.851 Pena Catcher Teahen German Shealy DeJesus Gload Gordon Sweeney
4.851 Pena Catcher Shealy German Sweeney DeJesus Gload Teahen Gordon
4.851 Pena Catcher Gload German Sweeney DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy

====LINEUP F—GERMAN FOR PENA AT SHORTSTOP (GLOAD IN LEFT)====

Runs per game for lineup: 5.147.

Top five lineups:
5.290 DeJesus Teahen Grudzielanek Gordon Gload Shealy Sweeney Catcher German
5.290 DeJesus Teahen Grudzielanek Gordon Gload Sweeney Shealy Catcher German
5.288 DeJesus Gload Grudzielanek Gordon Teahen Shealy Sweeney Catcher German
5.288 DeJesus Gload Grudzielanek Gordon Teahen Sweeney Shealy Catcher German
5.285 DeJesus Gordon Grudzielanek Teahen Gload Shealy Sweeney Catcher German

Worst five lineups:
5.019 Catcher Grudzielanek Teahen German Sweeney DeJesus Gload Gordon Shealy
5.020 Catcher Grudzielanek Sweeney German Gload DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy
5.020 Catcher Grudzielanek Teahen German Shealy DeJesus Gload Gordon Sweeney
5.020 Catcher Grudzielanek Shealy German Sweeney DeJesus Gload Teahen Gordon
5.021 Catcher Grudzielanek Gload German Sweeney DeJesus Teahen Gordon Shealy

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In terms of where to put Ross Gload, the number one answer seems to be replacing Emil Brown in left field. (Not a huge surprise.) The nice thing is that he can step in at DH or 1B (leaving Brown to resume LF) without too much of a drop-off, offensively speaking.

Esteban German’s involvement, either at second base or shortstop, can mean up to a tenth of a run extra per game (this means, per 10 games, one run; this means, per 100 games, one win). That’s a pretty big deal. Of course, both Grudz and Pena offer much more with the glove than German, and that isn’t accounted for here.

In terms of runs scored, the top lineup (Gload at LF, German at SS) scored 5.147 runs/game, for a grand total of 834 runs for the season. That would have been fifth (and one run away from fourth) place in the AL last year, third in the AL Central.

More realistically, Gload in for Brown and German on the bench gives us 5.001 runs/game, translating to 810 runs for the season. This would put the Royals seventh in the AL last year.

After writing all this, I realize just how deep the KC bench is this year. If Sweeney or Grudzielanek are injured, if Brown is dealt, if Shealy slumps, if Buddy Bell needs a top-tier pinch-hitter in the bottom of the ninth, this Royals team can respond very strongly. It seems to odd to say it, but the depth on this team is really among the tops in the MLB.