Royals Roundtable II

I am very proud to present the second Royals Roundtable. (You can find the first Roundtable right here.) First the biographies, then the questions. We had two questions everyone answered, then broke the members into three groups and each group received two unique questions. We also had a round of responses, which are denoted by the quotation box.

I hope you enjoy!

BIOS:

Kevin Agee, a student at Missouri State University, is a senior correspondent for Royals Corner and a co-author of the 2007 Scout.com Baseball Prospects Guide. His writing has also appeared at the Most Valuable Network and All-Baseball.com.

Craig Brown is a writer for Royals Authority and contributor to Baseball Digest Daily and Heater magazine.  He is also a contributor to The Graphical Player.

Clark Fosler is co-writer of Royals Authority on MVN.com.  He also writes about Nebraska Basketball for Husker Hoops Central and Big Red Analysis.

Dan Fox is a software architect, displaced Cubs fan and former resident of Kansas City where he cheered on the Royals during a very difficult decade. He is columnist at Baseball Prospectus where he writes the Shrodinger’s Bat column and is the author of the blog Dan Agonistes.

Aaron Gleeman is a Senior Baseball Editor for RotoWorld, a frequent contributor to NBCSports.com, and can be found blogging at AaronGleeman.com.

Will McDonald is a blogger at the excellent Royals Review.

Sam Mellinger has worked at the Kansas City Star since 2000, where he is the national baseball reporter.

La Velle E. Neal III has covered baseball for the (Minneapolis / St. Paul) Star Tribune since 1998. He began his baseball writing career at the Kansas City Star He also runs a blog for the Star Tribune which can be found here.

Max Rieper is well-known throughout these parts as “Alex Gordon’s #1 Fan”. He also runs the blog Royals Retrospective and contributes at Royals Corner.

Dave Sanford, a reformed political junkie and lifelong Royals fan, publishes Royals Corner on the Scout.com Network.  His primary focus is on covering the Royals’ minor league system, and since joining Scout.com last summer, he’s interviewed most of the Royals’ top prospects.

Lee Warren is the sports columnist for The Heartland Gatekeeper newspaper in Omaha, Nebraska, he’s a writer for Baptist Press Sports, and he’s an author. You can find more of his opinions about the Royals on his Royal Reflections blog.

Mike Webber, a commenter here at BBTF, is a former president of the Kansas City chapter of SABR.

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What direction do the Royals need to be heading in Spring Training? What issues need to be resolved? What needs the most work?

Mellinger: What needs the most work is what’s received the most work, and that’s pitching. The Royals pitching was exceptionally bad last year, breaking all kinds of franchise records. Dayton has said over and over again that that was his main focus when he took the job, and he’s backed it up with moves. Jimmy Gobble was firmly in the rotation when Dayton got the job. Now Greinke has to win the fifth spot and Gobble’s in middle/long relief. The thing is, the Royals aren’t THAT bad. Look at how they finished last year. Without looking it up, I think they won something like 47 of their last 100 games. Not great, but certainly not terrible. And they got better in the offseason. Last year Joe Nelson was the most reliable reliever. Now he’s got to win a spot on the big league club. The offense will likely be at least adequate, so if they can improve the pitching from worst in baseball to merely bad, that could be worth 5 or 10 wins. Get to average, and you’re talking even better. Optimism is always everywhere this time of year, and the Royals could come out (they open with Schilling, Beckett and Matsuzaka and then welcome in the AL champs) and fall flat on their face. But they at least look to be making the right steps, and if nothing else, Dayton has everyone believing they’ll be good, which is a big step.

Webber: I think with any team, from the World Champion Cards to, well, the Royals, you always have to sort through the pitching in spring training.  Pitchers are so volatile, they add a pitch, they lose their arm slot, Guy Hansen messes with their stop point, you have to sift through what you have every spring. Does anyone miss Guy Hansen?

I think the team defense is what needs the most work, but I’m not sure you can fix it in the spring.

Gleeman: In terms of both short- and long-term impact, the biggest key during spring training is probably Gordon.  If he can officially claim the third-base job for the next decade or so while pushing Teahen to the outfield, it does a lot to shape the overall look of the team going forward.  Beyond that, Sweeney’s healthy is still pretty damn important, although at this point I understand if Royals fans are sort of in the “if he finally stays healthy, it’s a bonus” state of mind.

The biggest thing for the coaching staff to sort through this month is probably the bullpen, because there are enough viable arms to piece together something effective if done correctly.  I like Dotel at closer assuming he’s healthy, and between Riske, Peralta, Gobble, and maybe even Soria they should be able to avoid the meltdowns that have plagued them.  The starting rotation is another issue altogether, because I’m not sure any amount of sorting will pretty it up.

Warren: The starting rotation is the most important aspect that the Royals need to focus on this spring. The starting rotation at the beginning of last season was: 1. Scott Elarton, 2. Runelvys Hernandez, 3. Joe Mays, 4. Jeremy Affeldt, 5. Denny Bautista. By April 22, the Royals had already strung together an 11-game losing streak--thanks largely to a starting rotation that just couldn’t get the job done. At times, they appeared to be afraid to throw strikes. This year, the rotation will include 1. Gil Meche, 2. Odalis Perez, 3. Luke Hudson, 4./5. a battle between Greinke, De La Rosa, and Bannister. Elarton will figure into the mix in May presumably.

Meche is what he is--a pitcher with mediocre career numbers. He walks too many guys (4.01 per nine innings) and he doesn’t strike out enough guys (6.35 per nine innings). Unfortunately he was one of the best available starters on the free agent market, so we nabbed him with the hopes that he’d make 30+ starts and keep his ERA in the 4.00’s. Perez is another pitcher with mediocre career numbers, but he walks fewer guys than Meche (2.45 per nine innings) while striking out slightly more (6.39 per nine innings). Hudson had a break out season in 2006, but he was still only 7-6 with a 5.12 ERA. And he walked 3.35 guys per nine innings. Greinke, De La Rosa, and Bannister are complete question marks going into 2007. Greinke and Bannister aren’t prone to walk a lot of guys, but De La Rosa issues 6.63 walks per nine innings (in 71 major league games).

Last season, the Royals issued 637 walks in 1426.1 innings, which was the second worst mark in baseball. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio was 1.42, which was the worst in baseball. They finished dead last in strikeouts with 904. And they still managed to give up 213 home runs (probably because they were behind in the count so often), which tied Cincinnati for the second most in baseball. Obviously, most of the pitchers who put us such horrendous numbers are gone now, but the Royals still have to be concerned about Meche, Hudson, and De La Rosa giving up too many walks. This spring, McClure needs to convince the entire staff to throw more strikes and just let the guys behind them play defense. Easier said than done.

Fosler: In my mind, the Royals must decide who the catcher is going to be on a regular basis.  Outside of Odalis Perez, KC is going to be putting starters on the mound every day that NEED help from their catchers.  The idea of Jason LaRue and John Buck essentially alternating will do little to help the offense and only hurt the pitching staff.  Pick a guy and catch him five days a week.

When it comes to needing the most work, an obvious answer is Mark Teahen in rightfield, but I am actually not too worried about that transition.  I would like to see Octavio Dotel get a steady diet of work in ‘A’ games.  The last thing the Royals need is to hit May 15th and suddenly find out Dotel has not been able to get ‘it’ back.  For that matter, outside of David Riske, really no one in the revamped and hopefully improved bullpen has really proven themselves.  You run the risk of overworking your guys early, but I would hope that we see the top eight or nine competitors for those seven spots working every other day.

McDonald: I can’t remember a Spring Training that began with so many interchangeable parts. Hell, even the previously untouchable John Buck is being nominally challenged. Personally, I take the stat-head position that the fixation with “set roles” is both counter-productive and an incredible insult to some of the most talented men on Earth. But in this case there may be something to it, especially since these things tend to be self-fulfilling. So in short, Bell/Moore need to settle on the distribution of at bats at the outfield corners, first, third and DH. I hope they choose a distinct path and run with it, either trying to showcase the vets for a trade (and implementing “Operation Sandbag” with Butler and Gordon) or actually trying to field their best nine possible.

Sanford: I see four key issues that need to be settled this spring before the Royals break camp.  Perhaps most important is the coming decision about what to do with their overabundance of outfielders.  Between David DeJesus, Mark Teahen, Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders, Joey Gathright, and Shane Costa, the Royals have six outfielders who are competing for four roster spots.  Ordinarily, the situation could be easily resolved by shipping to Omaha the two who lose out, but the matter is complicated by the expected ascension of outfield prospects Billy Butler, Chris Lubanski, and Mitch Maier to Triple-A.  The Royals don’t want any of their young players sitting on the bench, so the most interesting story of the spring will be how the Royals ultimately solve their dilemma.  We’ll likely see some trades before the Royals break camp.

The other issues center around the composition of the rotation, the bullpen, and the starting catching job.  It sounds as though all but one of the rotation slots is settled (barring a poor spring by Jorge De la Rosa), so it will be interesting to see who wins the battle for the final spot.  The two favorites are clearly Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke, and one of those two figures to start the season with Omaha .  Like the rotation, the bullpen is also almost set, and there figures to be two open slots in the relief corps.  The top candidates appear to be Joel Peralta, Joe Nelson, Todd Wellemeyer, and Ken Ray, but regardless of what happens, at least one pitcher who performed reasonably well for the club last season will likely have his ticket punched to Omaha.

And finally, it will be interesting to see how the catching situation plays out.  John Buck has had a rather disappointing start to his Major League career, and he was frequently at odds with Buddy Bell last season.  We all know how Bell likes to play veterans, so Jason LaRue figures to have a good chance of winning the starting catching job.

Neal: Well, since they are in hell, they’ve got to indentify who’s a player and who’s not. Preferably pitching. The Royals have had some good offensive teams in the 10 years since I’ve covered them but, for whatever reason, they have been unable to come up with quality pitching. I used to complain to the Twins when 14 of their first 20 picks of the draft would be on pitchers, but not any more.

Like everyone else, I’m eager to see Gordon, Billy Butler, etc., but they need to improve their pitching.

To me, the fan base can’t get any more abused. Play the kids and stick with the plan. The Royals have tried a few youth movements in recent years, but it seems like they give in and start bringing in veterans. If you have to call up 20 rookies this year, go with them.

Rieper: What direction? Upward and onward! The are two major issues to be resolved this spring training for the Royals: (1) Assembling the rotation; and (2) Resolving the outfield logjam. For the rotation, Gil Meche, Odalis Perez and Luke Hudson are your 1-2-3 barring injury. The last two spots are realistically down to three candidates - Zack Greinke, Brian Bannister and Jorge de la Rosa. Todd Wellemeyer is probably being considered and a few others are darkhorse candidates, but personally I think its two of those three.

De la Rosa is out of options, and Buddy has hinted a preference towards his “toughness” and “stuff.” He has a 5.88 lifetime ERA, which would lean me towards not keeping him at all, but he was cheap “talent” and the Royals aren’t going anywhere so perhaps he’s worth a flyer - at least for a few starts.

So that leaves Bannister and Greinke. Bannister is 26 - about the age to put up or shut up in the big leagues. I’d guess he has the inside track. Zack is a wildcard. I think he could post a 3.50 ERA or a 5.50 ERA. My guess is Zack starts the year in Omaha, then is called up when Bannister or De la Rosa implode.

As for the outfield logjam, its clear a trade needs to be had. Brown, DeJesus and Teahen are your starters. The odd man out seems to be Reggie Sanders. He’s make a decent platoon partner with a lefty, but you don’t really want to platoon either of the Royals lefties - DeJesus or Teahen. So my guess is Reggie dealt or outright released. If the Royals release a guy they owe $5 million, I’ll have real hope that we’re entering a new era in Royals baseball.

That still leaves Ross Gload, Joey Gathright and Shane Costa battling for two reserve spots. Buddy loves Rossy from his time in Colorado, and Joey is a speed demon, which actually might be valuable in a reserve role. So I’d guess Shane goes to Omaha, where there is another outfield logjam with Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier and Billy Butler all starting.

Brown: I subscribe to the Buddy Bell school of “Rock Bottom.” You never say you’ve actually hit rock bottom because you can always slip a little lower.  Having said that, the Royals need prepare for the season, turn the ship around and get off to a decent start in April. 

The one thing that has disturbed me is the lack of competition in this camp for spots.  Doesn’t it make sense for there to be at least some competition for a team that lost 100 games the previous season?  But then I step back and realize this is a new team.  There are new starters on the infield corners, at least one new corner outfielder and a whole new pitching staff.  The guys in the minors are on a schedule and the front office is continuing to evaluate and add players as needed.  Competition for spots isn’t really necessary.

The number one issue I’d like resolved is the “glut” in the outfield.  Obviously, my first choice would be to deal Reggie Sanders, but I wouldn’t object to Emil Brown getting traded either.  Both guys figure to provide average production and we could probably get the same (or close to the same) numbers from someone like Shane Costa.  Costa also brings a left handed bat, and by my count the Royals will have only three left handed hitters who are locks for the Opening Day roster, so him being on the team would fill a need.

The catcher situation?  Bah.

I’ve very interested in seeing how the rotation shakes out.  Meche is number one (although I think we all agree, he’s really a number three type starter, but we are Royals fans, so he’s a number one) and Perez is two.  Hudson will be alright, but like Meche, he’s pitching a spot or two in the rotation ahead of his ability.  I must admit I’m a little confused for all the love the Royals are showing Jorge De la Rosa.  We’re talking about a pitcher who has basically done well in Double-A.  OK, he has the ability to strikeout some batters, but he also gives up a ton, a ton, of walks.  I just don’t see it.  But he’s going to get a chance. 

Fox: It would seem like they should be putting all of their resources behind not screwing up the young guys. That means assign roster spots and playing time based on the projected lineup and rotation for 2008 and 2009. I like Aaron’s suggestion of releasing Reggie Sanders to help free up playing time in an already crowded outfield and one that will only become more so with Mitch Maier, Chris Lubanski, and Billy Butler in Omaha. If they want to find out what they have with the Ryan Shealeys, Brian Bannisters, Justin Hubers, and Joey Gathrights of the world, now is the time. And while Jason La Rue may be a decent backup it seems the organization has a lot invested in John Buck and given the fact that among Baseball America’s top 30 Royals prospects there is nary a catcher among them, need to see that through in 2007.

Agee:Obviously, sorting out the enormous logjam of outfielders is the biggest task facing the Royals’ front office and on-field management this spring. The only sure jobs belong to David DeJesus, Emil Brown, and Mark Teahen (if you want to call him an outfielder); other than that, only a few things seem certain, and even those are vague in a sense. Mitch Maier and Chris Lubanski are surely ticketed for Omaha, but the statuses of Joey Gathright, Reggie Sanders, and Shane Costa are very much up in the air.

For me, the team needs to really focus on base stealing during the exhibition season. The Royals didn’t run much last year (only 99 attempts), but to make matters worse, their success rate was a lackluster 65 percent. I was quite pleased to read on the Royals’ website that Buddy Bell is going to let his players attempt to steal bases at their own discretion during camp, because at the end of the day, this is still a team without a lot of power. Teaching those who could see time at the top of the order this season – Esteban German, David DeJesus, and Gathright – how to successfully turn a single into a double will definitely help them cross the plate more often.

Neal: I totally agree with Agee. The Royals should look to move Sanders and Brown by the trade deadline and let the younger players get experience. You can sell that to the fan base because it has been breaten down with losing.  At least by playing young players there’s the belief that you’re building something. Going with medicore veteran players doesn’t. Plus if you’re going to stink, why pay mediocre veterans when it’s cheaper to play youngsters.  You’ll save money that can be used for the next $11 million a year pitcher.

Get ready to move a lot of pitchers in and out of the rotation. I expect Zack to bounce back and move up the rotation as the year progresses. I say trade Odalis Perez too and open up a slot for younger arms - if they’re are any deserving.

Of course, I have to ask a season preview question: Given the major off-season events (Mark Teahen moved to RF after surgery, the monster Gil Meche signing, the Octavio Dotel signing, Alex Gordon likely getting the start at third base, Angel Berroa staying at shortstop), give me your best prediction for the Royals regular season record and division rank. Do you think they’ll exceed or fall short of the general public’s expectations for them? Why?

McDonald: Does anyone else feel a weird vibe in the fanbase right now? I don’t hear anyone predicting playoffs, or even third-place, but at the same time people seem legitimately excited. I guess that puts the aggregate expectation at something like 75-82 wins, basically what Posnanski claimed we’d get last season in his “they’ll be competent” column on the day after Opening Day. I don’t see that. I see more playing time mismanagement and a pitching staff only marginally better than the ’06 edition, which allowed the 21st most runs in baseball history. Prediction: 63-99.

Warren: I don’t know what the public’s expectation is. I suspect that it is simply to reach .500. I don’t think the Royals will do that in 2007. My prediction is 74-88, which will still probably put them in last place in the Central, unless the Indians fall apart. The Royals’ major problem, in my opinion, is still their rotation. But throw in average seasons from Meche and Elarton, a great comeback by Greinke, a break out season by Bannister, and maybe a successful debut by Luke Hochevar after the break, and who knows?

Agee: I couldn’t agree more with Lee. Although hoping for a league-average season for Scott Elarton is asking a bit much of a guy coming off a shoulder injury who was never very good to begin with, I think it’s within reason to anticipate an “average” season from Odalis Perez. Despite the fact that Odalis has lost more than a few ticks off his fastball, he strikes me as the type of crafty veteran who will adapt his pitching style and be reasonably successful as a result. And he’ll get plenty of opportunity. We all know how Buddy loves those grizzled, crafty vets.

The bottom line? If the starting rotation shows a ton of improvement over 2006, the team as a whole will definitely show a ton of improvement over 2006. Let the Meche/Greinke/Hochevar era begin.

Fosler: I’ve been overly optimistic since 1971, so why stop now?  Realistically, I think the Royals are destined for last once more in baseball’s toughest division.  That said, it won’t take a whole lot of luck for this team to come in at 74-88.  When it comes to public perception, anything that doesn’t turn into triple digit losses will most likely exceed what the casual fans expects.  If KC has caught lightning in a bottle with Alex Gordon and Ryan Shealy, this suddenly becomes a very decent offensive ballclub.  If Gil Meche and Dotel come through, my prediction looks pretty doable.  IF, IF, IF!

Rieper: I think if they’re relatively healthy they can win 75 games. If Meche misses 5-8 starts, Odalis Perez misses a few weeks, Sweeney misses 40 games, DeJesus lands on the DL - in other words, what will LIKELY happen, the Royals win around 70. I think that’s pretty much within the range of most realistic fan expectations and will be considered a marginal success.

Webber: I searched the various gambling web sites, and 67.5 was the only over/under number I saw.  If I had to guess, I’d take the under. They won just 62, and they really weren’t unlucky, missing their Pythagorean projected wins by one. Can you imagine if they were unlucky? Yikes!

While I’d rather have Shealy in 2007 than Minky at first, I don’t think his production will be much better than what the club had a first last season. Shealy’s production will be shaped differently, more power, but less OBA.  Plus Doug trumps him in the field.

At third Gordon is really taking plate appearances away from Reggie Sanders and Joey Gathright, I think he will be better than they were last year.

Mike Sweeney is the only other player that I see could add much production compared to last year. That of course depends on his health, though his OPS+ was only 97, so even if he doesn’t play much more, he could play better.

Esteban German could have a very nice season without being nearly as productive as he was in 2006.

The pitching should be better, if only because the 335 innings of 6.21 ERA thrown by the trio of Redman, Runelvys and Sisco has moved on.  However, I think the team’s defense may prevent the pitchers from showing big improvements. They were next to last in Defensive Efficiency Rating in the AL last year, coupling that with leading the league in walks allowed explains how you end up allowing 72 more runs than the next worst team in the league. 

The team would have to improve about 75 runs over 2006 to win more than 67.5 games. I don’t think that will happen. So 66 wins and last in the Central is my prediction.

Fox: Quick take. They’ll not lose 100 games for the first time since 2003 and will finish 73-89 good for last in the AL Central.

Agee: There’s definitely a lot of excitement surrounding this particular group of players. Kansas City has been abuzz from the day the Royals hired Dayton Moore as general manager, and that buzz has carried over to the present. Unfortunately, I think a lot of the enthusiasm is slightly unwarranted. This is just a hunch, but it’s entirely possible that fans of this team were so fed up with the last regime, they were willing to fully endorse any kind of a structural change and the people who implemented it.

What I’m saying is that while expectations should be high for Meche, Dotel, Alex Gordon, Ryan Shealy, and the rest of the nucleus, we shouldn’t forget that this team won 62 ballgames a year ago. Rapid improvement into the 75- or 80-win mark simply isn’t in the cards, at least not this year, and certainly not for a team that still has tons of work to do in building its pitching staff. The Royals are still slated for fifth place in the central, albeit with four or five more wins.

Sanford: It’s hard to determine precisely what the “general public” expects, although I suppose the general consensus is that the Royals will be at least marginally better.  I’ll see that consensus and raise it a notch, as I expect the Royals to improve by 20 games this season to finish in fourth place at 82-80.  I like the upgrades Dayton Moore has made to the pitching staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen, and I’m comfortable making the prediction that the Royals will finish in the top half of the American League in runs scored.  With full seasons in the offing for Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, and Ryan Shealy, the Royals figure to get significantly better production from at least three positions, which will only build upon a squad that finished among the top offenses in the American League during last season’s second half.

An 82-win prediction might be something of a leap of faith, but that’s what being a fan is all about.  I expect things to go right, and even if they don’t, I believe the Royals have far more depth to cope difficulties and underperformance than they did in seasons past.  Frankly, it doesn’t even take much of an optimist to realize the potential damage that a healthy lineup that includes David DeJesus, Mark Teahen, Mike Sweeney, Ryan Shealy, and Alex Gordon might be able to inflict.  And likewise, it would take one hell of a pessimist to believe that the pitching staff could possibly be any worse than it was last year. 

Gleeman:These two things may seem to contradict each other, but I think the Royals will significantly outperform the general public’s expectations and finish dead last in the division by a relatively wide margin.  I expect the AL Central to be the best division in all of baseball and it’s possible that the Twins, Tigers, White Sox, and Indians will each be among MLB’s top dozen teams.  That just doesn’t leave much room for the Royals to climb up the standings, even if they improve by some incredible number of games.

I think anything up to about 78 wins is within reason, although I’d probably put the over/under closer to the 72-75 range.  Whatever the case, I’d be mildly surprised if the Royals didn’t improve by at least 10 games.  What makes it a tough situation for Royals fans is that they could be the most improved team in the league and still be guaranteed a fifth-place finish by September. I expect it to be an encouraging season in a lot of respects, but it might take not putting everything in the context of the division standings to see it.

Webber: Remember back when Gleeman was just a Twins blogger? Before he was writing for half the sports web sites in North America and rumored by TMZ.com to cozying up with Shana Hiatt?

Back then he wouldn’t have pretended that 78 wins is within reason, he’d have crowed that the only team he’d rather in the Twins division than the Royals is the Pirates.

Now he’s all corporate and PC and skinny.

Brown: The addition of Alex Gordon to the lineup makes this team instantly better.  Combine that with a full season (hopefully) from Mark Teahen and Ryan Shealy and the usual solid year from David DeJesus, I’m optimistic about their offensive performance.

I think this team can improve by about 10 wins, so I’ll go with 72-90.

I’d like to crank the win total higher, but the pitching is still a problem.  The rotation still lacks a quality number one or number two starter and beyond that is riddled with question marks.  The bullpen is cobbled together with projects, nomads and rehabbers.  Don’t get me wrong.  I think it’s good that Dayton blew up last year’s staff – clearly, it wasn’t working.  But I’m not convinced great improvements have been made.  I’m worried about the health of Octavio Dotel and David Riske.  Guys like Peralta and Wellemeyer don’t do much for me and who knows what to expect from John Bale?  I’d like to say Joakim Soria excites me, but I said the same thing about another Rule 5 guy, Andy Sisco, so I’ll just keep my thoughts to myself.

As far as the public’s expectations… I always hate to hang a number of wins on this team.  And I never liked it when David Glass would make a “prediction.” I think what the fans want, and need to see, is improvement.  Obviously, that comes in the form of wins.  But realize a 64-win season doesn’t qualify as improvement, the increase in the win total has to be substantial.  The Royals play in an incredibly difficult division, so they’re going to have to battle for their wins.  A 72-win season would make me smile.

Neal: The Royals will finish in last place and go 68-94. The A.L. Central will be a bloodbath this year, and the other four teams will fatten up on Kansas City. Should there really be any expectations? They have to see if the latest youth movement will click.

Mellinger: The numbers may be out by now, but a few guys in Vegas told me the Royals over-under would be around 66 or 67 wins. That’s probably about right. If I had to bet, I’d probably take the over because I think the pitching (rotation and bullpen both) will be significantly better. The division is absolutely brutal. I have a feeling the Twins and White Sox may fall back a little, but Detroit has the same team plus Sheffield and Cleveland is a very good sleeper pick for the pennant if their bullpen works out. My guess is the Royals will finish last again, but be a better team. How much that shows in the standings, who knows. Couple thoughts about the moves you mention: Teahen is a way better athlete than most people realize and shouldn’t have much trouble at all playing the outfield. Meche has all the stuff to be a #1, and everything I hear and see about the guy says he’s ready and up to the challenge, but there’s a long list of good pitchers who’ve struggled as a #1. It’s a huge jump.

[Royals bloggers group]
Part of the day-to-day minutiae of blogging about the Royals are discussing and attempting to digest Buddy Bell’s… interesting lineup cards and bullpen decisions. Talk to me about some of the issues with this—Bell has recently said he loves having Ross Gload around, and Gload can easily block two key prospects, Justin Huber and Ryan Shealy, at one time; I’m sure it can be quite tempting for Joey Gathright to get the nod over DeJesus; etc. Where do you see the biggest lineup issues for the future?

Brown: I look at Buddy as God’s gift to bloggers.  But then I think, “If there is a God, why does he hate the Royals so much?”

Buddy as manager is exactly why I fear the acquisition of Gload so much.  I don’t think Gload will block anyone, but I do think Buddy will be tempted to use him too much, rotating among the infield and the outfield, it woudn’t be surprising if he averaged 4 starts a week.

But otherwise, I think that Dayton has done a good job building a club where there’s no wiggle room for “creative” managing.  The starting roles are pretty well defined and once they decide on an everyday LF and C, then you’re looking at a set lineup.  Not even Buddy can screw that up.

By the way, Huber is toast.  I’d love for him to get a look, but at whose expense?  At this point, it would take another Mike Sweeney injury for him to get a chance, but even then, Buddy would look at it as a chance to rotate Brown and Sanders between LF and DH.  It’s too bad, because the Royals were in a position last years to give Huber a serious look.  If he makes it in the majors, it will probably be with another team.

As for the bullpen, I think Buddy did a much better job managing his relievers last season.  How much credit for that goes to Bob McClure?  All I know is that I thought Buddy was a disaster in 2005, going for weird matchups, leaving starters in too long and just having no “feel” for how to use his relievers.  That seemed to change last season.  I don’t remember the exact moment, but I do remember thinking to myself, “That was a smart move,” during a pitching change.  Not that I’m some sort of expert on bullpen usage, but it just seemed like he was approaching his pitchers with some sort of plan.  Judging by the team ERA, it didn’t always work, but once the talent arrives it will be something to note.

Warren: I’m giving Bell the benefit of the doubt on the Gload thing. At nearly 31, he’s not part of the long term plans in Kansas City. And if the Royals thought he was truly blocking Huber or Shealy, I don’t think they would have traded for him. Shealy is going to start and get his at bats. Huber could probably benefit from another full season in Omaha. In 30 career major league games, he hasn’t shown the ability to hit big league pitching yet (.216 average, with 6 BB and 24 K).

One of the major problems I’ve seen in the past few years is the Royals lack of depth. When Teahen went down last year, they Royals really didn’t have a legitimate major league third baseman to take his place. When DeJesus went down in the past, they didn’t have anybody who could play center. When Sweeney went down in the past, they struggled to find somebody to replace his stick. Trading for Gathright and Gload strengthened the Royals depth. I’m not sure that trading Howell for Gathright was the best move and I’m not sure why Bell gave the starting center field job to Gathright last season, but thankfully that experiment is over. He’s a good back up for DeJesus--one we won’t have to worry about defensively, when/if DeJesus goes down. When the time comes for good young talent to get their shot, I’m all in favor of giving it to them, but I don’t think we need to weaken our current bench to do so.

Maybe this speaks more about the philosophy Moore is talking about regarding keeping guys in the minor leagues until they are truly ready. If the front office does a good job of determining who is ready and who isn’t, then we can fill in the gaps with guys like Gload and not put a ridiculous product on the field when injuries strike.

Agee: I really have to question whether this is an issue at all, especially since I can’t remember a time when Bell played an inferior veteran over a truly talented (and healthy) young player with a future for an extended period of time. For example, Kerry Robinson played center field last year, but that was necessitated by an injury to DeJesus and Shane Costa needing more time in the minor leagues. Look, everybody (including Bell) wants to see what Ryan Shealy can do on an everyday basis, but he’s going to need some time off like everybody else. And lest we forget, Gload is a pretty good hitter who can play first base and both corner outfield spots, so it’s not like he’d be a drain on the offense. My suggestion? Quit worrying about the manager falling in love with a horrible bench player. The next time that happens during Bell’s Kansas City tenure will be the first.

Fosler: I have to agree with Kevin, generally, about Buddy’s playing of veterans over younger players last year…with the exception of the inexplicable refusal to give Justin Huber any at-bats when he was up in June and possibly with the long delay in giving German a look at DH over Matt Stairs et al.  My problem with Buddy is his rigid conventionalism (is that a real term? – it should be) when it comes to player usage.  For instance, it really did not even dawn on Bell until mid-season that German actually could be used at DH, even though he was not a burly power hitter; Mark Grudzielanek just has to bat second because he can handle the bat; right handers have to face left handers even if it as the expense of a lefthanded hitter who kills lefty pitchers, etc.  That is what really gets me on an anti-Bell rant.  I have, however, ‘turned the page’ this spring.  Buddy and I are starting fresh…it may even last until the start of the regular season!

McDonald: Playing Gathright in center turned DeJesus from an above-average CF into a below average LF while also moving a non-functional bat into center. But can we even pin that on Bell? Gator was the shiny new toy after all and German’s career season and much-needed OBP fit well on the bench. Bell’s bizarre, causeless, public criticism of Blanco last season convinced me that he’s rather capricious in his dealings with players. My biggest fear is that the naked double-standards continue. Still, something tells me Moore’s completely in control of basic lineup issues.

Talk to me about Billy Butler. He seems to be on a fast track to get to Kansas City within the next year or two. When do you want to see him up in KC? What position will he be playing? Where will he be in the lineup? What will his role be?

McDonald: He’s younger and less advanced that Gordon, and for that reason I don’t mind him spending another full year in the minors. I’d like him at DH/LF in 2008,
hopefully in the Emil Brown role.

Warren: Bob Dutton said in a recent article that the general view around baseball is that Butler’s “defense is so thoroughly substandard that he is merely a designated hitter in waiting.” Butler is reportedly taking extra fly balls in Surprise right now. The Royals had little choice but to move him from his normal position of third base--which he didn’t play all that well to begin with. Unless he can improve his defensive skills greatly, he’s going to be in Omaha for a while. He’s scheduled to play there this season and it’ll be good for him. We’ll see where he stands defensively after the season. If he improves to the point of average, then it’s decision time regarding left field. If he doesn’t, then another year in Omaha might help him. I really don’t want to see him in KC until he can contribute defensively.

But here’s the deal, Emil Brown is 32 years old. Reggie Sanders probably won’t be Royal blue much longer. Who knows how much longer Mike Sweeney will be around? I’m guessing that Butler will have a chance to compete for a spot in either left field or as a DH in the next couple of seasons. He might be competing with Mitch Maier and Chris Lubanski, but surely the Royals can find a place for all three guys (one in the outfield, one as the DH, and one as a fourth outfielder) if they show that they can play at the major league level. I certainly like the sound of a Butler-DeJesus-Teahen outfield, but I’m concerned about the defensive aspect. Teahen is still learning the position and we could be in for a defensive adventure if we put Butler in left too quickly. Of course, Butler might just turn out to be a career designated hitter. In which case, he’s going to have to wait until Mike Sweeney is gone.

As for where Butler will be in the line up, it’s anybody’s guess. He annihilated pitching at High Desert in 2005 (.348/.419/.636, 25 HR, 91 RBI in 92 games). He put up big numbers in Wichita last season (.331/.388/.499, 15 HR, 96 RBI in 119 games). And I like the fact that he isn’t afraid to take a walk (his career minor league OBP is .417). I’m not sure whether or not we’ll know if he’s a clean up hitter until he plays a full season in Omaha. With Teahen projected as the Royals number three guy (probably for years to come), and with Sweeney/Shealy hitting clean up, Butler seems like a good fit in the fifth or sixth slot in the line up.

Brown: Since the plan is for Butler to play the entire year in Triple-A, I would imagine he would be on the Opening Day roster in 2008.

But when would I like to see him in Kansas City?  As soon as he can help the team.  As much as I’d like to think he’s ready right now, I still think he needs to get a little more seasoning in Omaha.  He’s so young, there’s really no need to rush him to the big leagues.  But if he’s tearing the cover off the ball in June in Triple-A, then bring him up. Whenever he’s called up, I would expect the Royals will treat him similar to the way they are going to handle Alex Gordon this year.  Butler will bat in the lower half of the order, and as he develops, he’ll slowly move up.

If Teahen is in right, then it’s only natural to assume Butler will be in left.  I know Dayton is on the record as saying he won’t bring up Butler to be a DH, but why not?  DH is a position, a spot in the lineup, and if the Royals have a quality bat then by all means…

By the way, I don’t think Butler will be terrible in left.  He’s certainly not going to win any Gold Gloves and his defense might cost the Royals a game or two.  But let’s not forget, he’s also going to win his share of games with the bat.  That’s a tradeoff that I’m fine with. 

His role?  Why, half of the Royals Dynamic Duo with Alex Gordon.

Agee: I want to see Billy Butler in the major leagues once he’s mentally and emotionally ready to handle the bright lights of The Show, and not a moment sooner. Team officials have told us that they view Butler not as a designated hitter, but as a corner outfielder. Some may still scoff at that notion, but he is more than capable of handling right or left field, at least in a Man-Ram sense. He’s always had a strong arm and tracking fly balls is becoming less and less of an issue; the only problem is Butler’s running speed, which may cause some sure doubles to turn into sure triples for the opposition. Offensively, I suspect Bell will hit him lower in the order right away to take some pressure off of his 20-year-old shoulders. By 2008, however, he will begin his ascent towards joining Gordon in the middle of the lineup.

Fosler: I agree with the rest of the group that we’ll see Butler opening day 2008 at the latest.  His bat is probably just too potent to keep in AAA more than one year without developing bad habits.  The Royals really don’t want Gordon and Butler reaching free agency in the same year, anyway, so separating them by one year of service time can’t hurt while they try to figure out if Butler can manage left field.

Fox: I think it makes a great deal of sense to try and give Butler as much time in AAA as possible. Although he did win the Texas League batting title last season as a 20 year-old and was young for the level, his walk rate and slugging percentage both suffered a bit from 2005. He’s also put up those big numbers in good hitter’s environments and so it will be good to see what he can do in the more moderate environment in Omaha.

Neal: How in the hell was Billy Butler allowed to progress this far in the organization without learning to play a position? You can hold a promotion over his head until he becomes adequate with the glove. There’s nothing more disappointing than to see a young desginated hitter. I mean, does anyone know how hard he’s worked at defense?
Still, PECOTA insists that he’s a major league hitter right now (.295/.347/.455 weighted mean projection), if not quite as productive as you’d like your DH to be. And speaking of DH, while the Royals may think that he’ll be an outfielder when he grows up and although he has made strides, he sure looks like a born DH. When the inevitable Mike Sweeney injury comes Dayton Moore may succumb to the pressure to bring him up to fill the DH spot.

[Everyone Else group]
Give me an outlook for the shortstop position, both now and in the future. Will Angel Berroa cut it? Will Esteban German become a fixture at short? What about the future—Angel Salazar, Andres Blanco? What’s happening here?

Sanford: I think the most appropriate term to describe the Royals front office’s expectations of Berroa this season is very cautiously optimistic. Public statements aside, I highly doubt that anyone actually expects him to replicate his 2003 rookie campaign, particularly after the three years of misery that immediately followed it. However, I do believe the Royals are sincerely optimistic that Berroa’s offseason regimen – in which he stayed in Kansas City and worked out all winter – will allow him to recapture the bounce he once had in his step, and perhaps propel him to a career recovery. Furthermore, Berroa at this point has to know that he’s near the end of his leash, and if he cannot produce at an acceptable level this season, the Royals will move in another direction at shortstop.
Like the Royals, I’m willing to give Berroa one more shot, because there is no doubt that he possesses two key things: plenty of natural talent and a big contract. However, I’m really not expecting much, and the odds at this point have to favor Berroa being cut loose prior to the end of the season. He just has too many holes in his game – such as an unfathomable .259 OBP last year – for one to rationally expect acceptable improvement this season.

So who’s next at short for the Royals? Well, it most certainly won’t be Esteban German. German is a lot of things, but he’s not a great defender. The only reason he’s even working out at shortstop this spring is because he figures to be the Royals’ only backup infielder on the 25-man roster. If Berroa goes down, then the first replacement to see regular playing time will probably be Alex Gonzalez. However, the Royals are very high on shortstop prospect Angel Sanchez, and if he gets off to a good start in Omaha, he could possibly take over as well.

Fox: Did you have to start with such a depressing question? For 2007 it seems clear that the Royals are simply hoping for the “magic” of 2003 to return for Berroa so that he’ll be better than the 7th worst offensive player in baseball as he was in 2006 (-17.4 VORP). In article that runs today on BP I also have him as the second worst in terms of aggregate Win Expectancy (-4.28) behind only Ronny Cedeno (who incidentally plays for another team I root for which figures). The Royals of course are hoping that much of his performance is related to issues in his head like taking all the losses very hard - and he’s experienced a lot of them the last three years. But forecasting systems can’t of course see that and he now has three straight years of decline that says it’s not just his psyche that is the problem. In any case all of the forecasts agree that he’ll still be bad in 2007 both offensively and defensively but likely just peak his head above replacement level.

As for the future Esteban German is not a shortstop having logged just one game there in 2006 and has issues at third base. And even if he were a shortstop he’s only marginally better offensively. With the injury to Grudzielanek he’ll get the nod at second base to start the season. Andres Blanco has the advantage of being young. Period. Yes he can pick it at shortstop and if he were healthy he should probably be playing over Berroa. But he’s not with his shoulder injury and has not shown in the minors or the majors that he’ll even approach replacement level at the plate. Angel Sanchez did hit well in 2005 in high A ball and held his own in Wichita last season as a 22 year-old but doesn’t project as a hitter with either on base skills or power and so will likely be a below average offensive performer at the big league level. We’ll see what he can do in AAA this season and by all accounts he also a plus defender and so could earn a shot at replacing Berroa in 2008 if he continues his downward spiral. Looking longer term there’s Jeff Bianchi but you’re talking about 2010 and beyond.

I’m afraid the near term future of the position will have to wait to be settled via trade. If the Royals are in a position to contend in the next three years then making a trade for even a league average performer in order to eke out a couple of extra wins would seem to make sense.

Mellinger: First of all, let me say that LaVelle is still a legend in the Star sports department and it’s an honor to share the roundtable with Chicago’s original power guard. On to the shortstop, and this just has to get better. The case has been made that Berroa was the worst position player in baseball last year, and it’s a good one. That being said, all indications are that Berroa knows the situation he’s in and has worked his butt of to get better. Plus, there really isn’t an immediate and better option, so the Royals have no choice but to give Berroa every shot. Gonzalez comes in, but he’s probably a backup, and that’s if he makes the club. Blanco’s got to prove he can hit (plus he made 21 errors last year in Omaha). German’s strength is not defense, and he’s an emergency option only. Sanchez is probably the guy of the future, but he’s probably not quite ready for ‘07.

Webber: This is the last year for Berroa in Kansas City. The fan base has turned on him, and even if he reverts to his Rookie of the Year form, he will be a free agent. I think Berroa will follow the Carlos Febles path, start several years for the Royals and when finally leaving, never resurfacing in MLB. Best case scenario; Berroa is good until July and is dealt for two High A pitchers at the trade deadline when Ronny Cedeno pulls a hamstring.

I don’t think German could handle short on an everyday basis. As well as he hit last year, and as poor as Berroa was playing, if he didn’t get an opportunity in 2006 he never will.

Angel Salazar is 45 this year, so I’d guess he was over the hill. If he had a good Venezuelan Winter season though, I don’t see why he couldn’t follow the Julio Franco path back to the Royals.

Angel Sanchez, however, I think the Royals are correct to send him to AAA for at least half a year. If he shows he can hit he should get an everyday opportunity in September.  If he doesn’t hit at Omaha, then the Royals should figure on acquiring a shortstop this winter via trade or free agency. 

Why couldn’t Andres Blanco be Adam Everett?  Well, maybe he can’t even match Everett’s career OPS+ of 71. What about Dal Maxvil’s OPS+ of 57? 

Did you realize Blanco is six months younger than Sanchez? Blanco will only be 23 this year. He seems like he has been around forever because he first reached the majors in 2004.  If I Ran the Circus, I would have bit the bullet on Berroa and stuck Blanco in there already. Replacing one poor defensive player with an outstanding one would more than balance any potential offensive loss.

Rieper:I have been encouraged by reports this off-season that Angel is working his butt off, but the cynic in me says there are puff pieces like this every winter (see this for a humorous compilation of all the players arriving in spring training in great shape!) I think there’s probably a reason why Esteban German has not played much shortstop in his career. Players often don’t move to a more difficult position on the defensive spectrum and succeed.

I used to be pretty bearish on Blanco because I felt his defense was wildly overrated. I’ve been told that Baseball Prospectus says otherwise. I’m not privy to their defensive stats, so if its true, I think I could live with a good glove man at short, even if he hits like David Howard. If our young hitters are as advertised, we can live with an automatic out in the lineup.

I don’t know much about Angel Sanchez, but I am completely underwhelmed by his numbers. He had one good year - 2005. I don’t really see him as much of an option.

Neal: Based on what I’m reading here, the Royals need to either trade for a shortstop or draft a college shortstop and hope he moves up quickly. Now with your second baseman out and German expected to play there, there’s little to fall back on if Angel plays poorly. I remember Blanco. He looks like he can field, but his size suggests that he’s not big enough to be a 150-160 game shortstop.

Talk about the pitching. What are strong and weak points of the rotation, and what are strong and weak points of the bullpen?

Rieper: The strength of the rotation is.....keeping Nick Swartz busy? Nearly all of our rotation candidates spent some time on the DL last year. The good thing is that this year, unlike years past, we actually have SOME depth. Instead of having to throw out Eduardo Villacis or Seth Etherton in a pinch, we have some guys in Omaha who could at least impersonate a Major League pitcher like Dewon Brazelton, Matt Wright, Zach Day, Tyler Lumsden, and some of the guys slated for the bullpen have starting experience.

I think this is the best Royals bullpen in years. Which is like having the prettiest smile in England. But seriously, the Royals have some guys that can actually strike hitters out. Here are their MLB numbers:

Dotel 9.92 K/IP
Riske 8.62 K/IP
Bale 7.78 K/IP (10.19 in Japan)
Peralta 7.23 K/IP
Wellemeyer 8.08 K/IP
Nelson 8.94 K/IP

Rookie Ryan Braun struck out over 10 per 9 innings in the minors. Even Soria is supposed to have electric stuff. So no more of this “pitching to contact” nonsense.

The downside? None of these guys is a sure thing. Dotel is coming off Tommy John surgery.  Riske had back problems last year. Bale has been in Japan for three seasons. Peralta, Wellemeyer and Nelson have all had less than one solid season at the big league level.

Agee: I liked the moves Dayton Moore made to improve the bullpen, but aside from Dotel, I didn’t know about their strikeout rates. They’re pretty impressive, and gives me hope that the defense won’t have as much pressure on their shoulders late in games.
Additionally, I have a hunch that Bale could have a terrific season. His minor league stats are very good (a 3.78 ERA and a 10.02-to-3.27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 578.2 innings of work), and although his career major league ERA is 4.69, he’s done a good job missing bats, striking out 68 in 78.2 innings. If the ascencion in Jimmy Gobble’s strikeout rate last year was legitimate, the Royals could have two outstanding lefthanded options out of relief in 2007.

Fox: How come we don’t get any easy and more hopeful questions about Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen?
It seems to me the weakness of the rotation is its utter lack of anyone that has much upside. Dayton Moore believes that Gil Meche is reaching that point where his ability to pitch will mesh (pun intended) with his physical skills and he’ll emerge as a number 1 or 2 starter. PECOTA is much more pessimistic and his 2001 shoulder injury has perhaps limited his horizon. As most analysts have noted, for the Royals to spend $10M on any single player that does not get them over the hump and into the post season is most likely a mistake. In monetary terms he simply can’t be worth that much to a small market team like the Royals. Moving from 85 to 95 wins is the sweet spot, not from 65 to 75 (although I’m certainly not saying Meche will improve the team by 10 games). Still, Moore may be trying to follow the Tigers model where they spent heavily on free agents in the winter of 2003-2004 and saw a large increase in terms of revenue from attendance as the team improved from 43 to 72 wins. Of course, following that strategy with position players is less risky than it is with pitchers.

In terms of the other four projected starters Odalis Perez should bounce back a little coming off a .372 BABIP in Los Angeles and .332 in Kansas City. Still, his best days are clearly behind him. Jorge De La Rosa has the advantage of being just 26 but has not harnessed his control while giving up an ungodly number of homeruns per inning pitched. Luke Hudson at 30 years old should be serviceable but there’s nothing in his history that would suggest he’ll be anything more than filler. In the fifth spot 25 year-old Brian Bannister was the beneficiary of some good luck in his 6 starts for the Mets last year (.252 BABIP and 56 baserunners in 38 innings resulting in a 4.26 ERA) and hasn’t shown that he can be effective at the AAA level and beyond. He’s unveiling a new two-seam fastball this season which he broke out last Thursday and so there’s always hope. Of course Zack Greinke may have put his past behind him and so is still in the mix and could vie for the 5th spot with a strong showing this spring. All in all the Royals will be fortunate to get enough innings from these six. Anything more is probably asking too much.

As for the bullpen, in 2006 there were historically bad as they recorded a WXRL (wins above replacement level, taking into account game context and closer-usage patterns) of -1.57. How bad was that? Since 1959 that ranked as the 31st worst performance in history of the 1,208 teams. The worst in history belongs to the 1999 Royals pen who had a WXRL of -7.59 and sported no less than 8 relievers with ERAs over 6.00 and who threw 20 innings or more. For 2007 I think we’ll see some rebound from Octavio Dotel and some solid innings from Joel Peralta and Todd Wellemeyer. I like Joakim Soria, who was picked out of the Mexican League, and he could find his way into the rotation in the event of injuries. Beyond that things are pretty dicey and so while there is no where to go but up, it’s still a weak bullpen.

Mellinger: The pitching is undeniably better than it was a year ago, but then again, you could say it couldn’t be much worse. Pitching has always been Dayton Moore’s main priority, and, time will tell, but I think you’d have to say he’s made all the right moves so far. The staff is still full of maybes: maybe Gil Meche can become an ace, maybe De La Rosa can turn his good stuff into a consistent force, maybe Greinke can shake off his past struggles and be the guy he was originally projected to be, maybe Dotel can stay healthy, etc. Who knows, maybe it’ll all blow up. But I think you have to say this year’s maybes are more encouraging that last year’s group.

Webber: The top three in the rotation are Meche, Hudson and Perez. This time last year it was Redman, Elarton and Mays.  I think it is fair to say the Royals have upgraded in those spots, but Redman actually had been more productive than Meche in the three years prior to each joining the Royals. Redman didn’t throw 97 MPH though. 

The last two spots in the rotation appear to be Jorge De La Rosa and Brian Bannister, with Zach Grienke around as a wild card. Unless De La Rosa has significantly improved his control, I cannot see him being a successful starter. He struck out 36 while walking 32 in 48 IP with the Royals. I do not understand handing him a starting role this early in camp, and I do not understand why you would not bring back Redman if De La Rosa your 4th starter. 

Last year with Mike MacDougald in the designated closer role, the bullpen fell apart when he was injured forcing everyone up one role. The team could face a similar problem this season if Octavio Dotel’s crossfire delivery shreds his elbow again. David Riske is probably better suited to close than Ambiorix Burgos was last season.

I thought Jimmy Gobble – Himmy Hobble in Tony Pena-ease – was pretty good out of the pen last season, but it appears John Bale is considered the club’s top lefty now. Gobble struck out 57 in 58 IP in relief last season, with a 4.68 ERA.

The depth in the pen seems to be much better, and there seems to be little chance that young kids will be force fed key roles early in the season.

Neal: I’ve watched the Royals develop good position players, from Mike Sweeney to Johnny Dammon to Michael Tucker (who became Jermaine Dye) to Joe Randa to Carlos Beltran. They haven’t done the same with pitching. Jose Rosado was a setback. Runelvys Hernandez was a setback. Z. Grienke could be another setback. Based on everything I’ve read here, the first 10 rounds of the 2007 draft should yield seven pitchers and three shortstops. Get the arms in the system and demand more from your minor league pitching coordinator.

The economics of baseball makes it easier to keep good players. But what are you going to do in three years when Gordon, Teahen. DeJesus, Maier, Butler and Lubanski are pulling their hair out because the pitching staff isn’t doing its job? The price for bad pitching went up this offseason. It’s more important than ever to draft and develop your own arms so you don’t have to overpay some veteran righthander to anchor your staff when he should be eating innings near the back end of someone else’s rotation.

[Out-of-towner “group”]

Looking at the Royals roster and prospects, point out some players you think other franchises would be attracted to. Should the administration of players concern other franchises? For example, when Buddy Bell benches solid Triple-A 1B prospect Justin Huber for two weeks before sending him back down to Omaha, should that scare other franchises, or should it have little effect at all?

Gleeman: I’ve been a fan of Huber for a while now, ranking him among my top 50 prospects in a couple different seasons, so I think the Royals’ handling of him has been suspect at best.  On the other hand, his stock has certainly dipped a bit, and I also think Shealy will do a very solid job and having Sweeney around makes it somewhat difficult to break someone like Huber into the lineup.  If I were another team, I’d absolutely be calling up the Royals to ask about possibly getting Huber for 50 cents on the dollar.

My favorite guy on the roster is DeJesus, who I see as the epitome of someone who’s solid across the board without being a standout in any one area.  I’d view him as a major building block for the long haul, although it seems like the Royals are back to trusting that he’s the answer in center field after taking Gathright for a messy test drive.  In terms of someone the Royals could flip for value in a trade, I was surprised by the lack of interest in Brown over the winter, because he seems like a good short-term pickup for a team needing one extra bat.

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