The BIG question
The Royals lineup, considering it is a part of the same team that keeps losing 100 times a year, is surprisingly set. I can fill out a lineup for you right now that would be probably be pretty much accurate of what the lineup will look like in the middle of July.
But one of the biggest questions—probably the biggest on the offensive side of the ball—for now and for the future, is this: Is Mark Teahen for real?
He had a tremendous season last year, explosively coming out of nowhere following a month-long Triple-A send-down and call-up to lead the Royals offensively until he bowed out early to get a shoulder surgery.
And it’s that surgery, added to the facts that Teahen’s making a switch to right field and the fact that his offensive explosion came out of nowhere and only lasted 3 months, that makes me wary of his continued success this year. It would be awesome if he were able to reproduce his offensive firestorm while maintaining average defense in right, but I’m just not completely sure if he can.
So here is the evidence:
His projections, via FanGraphs
Spring Training numbers [Via Espen]
10 G | 29 AB
.379 AVG
7 R, 11 H, 18 total bases
1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI
And my new handy-dandy Baseball Prospectus tells me Teahen’s projected for a .283/.357/.474 line, along with a 37% chance of improvement and 18% chance of collapse. His high improvement rates are likely because of his age (25).
But I still hesitate to fully trust any projection system in this case because, well, what Teahen did last year isn’t exactly usual. It’s unprecedented, which means it’s extremely hard to predict what comes next. A basis of many projection systems like BP’s PECOTA is comparison players, and Teahen doesn’t have many great matches. Still, his spring training stats aren’t terrible, so I’m not about to call him a fluke either.
So the question is out there for anyone who wants to take a crack—Is Mark Teahen for real?
Reader Comments and Retorts
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I think (hope?) PECOTA is simply running a regression-to-the-means set of numbers, and then adjusting for a standard one-year's-age improvement. If Teahen's batting stance adjustment really did make him a better hitter, I'll take the over. But if his spur is for real, we could be looking at 25-year-old above-average right fielder, offensively, which is extremely promising.
Who's your shortstop? I would be pretty surprised if Berroa is still starting in July.
Hmm, good point. I think if I were forced to put a bet down it'd still be Berroa, only because of Grudzielanek's injury (German not getting much work at SS still) and a lack of real strong SS hitting at the moment. That said, it'd be nice to have either an almost-productive Berroa or a benched Berroa.
[...] that makes me weary of his continued success this year.
That is nearly exactly the opposite of what I wanted to say. I'm gonna edit it.
I think that's how that works. I've spent the last couple years reading BP and that seems to be a pretty big deal to PECOTA. Math-wise, it makes sense. Things almost always regress to the mean.
As for the Royals, my wife was a big George Brett fan growing so I pull for them when they're not playing the M's. With that in mind I keep hoping Berroa decides to do something else besides play baseball. Good grief.
Both KC and Omaha have way to many outfielders.
Barring a trade/release it looks to me like:
KC: lf-Brown cf-Dejesus rf-Teahen, bench: Sander, Gload
Omaha :lf-Butler, cf:maier rf:lubanski, becnh: Costa Gathright
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