All of that made me think, invariably, of Justin Huber—for reasons I don’t care to discuss without throwing myself back into the grief cycle.

But I do want to see how he’s doing, because I really haven’t heard about him in a long while and, let’s face it, it’s looking more and more like Ryan Shealy isn’t the long-term answer at 1B that Dayton Moore had marketed him to be in the Affeldt/Bautista trade.

In 55 games at Triple-A Omaha this year, 208 ABs | 13 HR, 52 RBI | 14 BB, 33 K | .269/.328/.510.

Pretty good, but it’s no 2005 Double-A .343/.432/.570 in 88 games that came pre-… uh, pre-Buddy Bell.

Still, might be worth a call-up to the MLB with the understanding that he will actually play at least two out of three games.

In getting myself caught up with the team, the first thing I noted was how very mediocre this team is playing! I don’t mean that in any condescending way. I mean that in a the-Royals-might-not-lose-100-games-finally way. Observe:

Year: Winning percentage
2004: .358
2005: .346
2006: .383
2007: .443 , so far

And that’s without noting that the Royals are underperforming their Pythag record of 54-61 by three games.

Over the last 30 games, the Royals are 15-15—that’s .500 baseball, for those of you without a scientific calculator within reach.

There are six baseball teams currently with a worse record than the Royals, which is better than the usual zero or occasional one.

Here are some W-L splits for the team as a whole, via B-Ref:
16-24 vs. the AL Central
15-11 vs. the AL West
(10-21 vs. the AL East)
5-7 in extra innings games, and 16-14 in one-run games.

Now let’s stop and look at those one-run games real quick. Maybe you aren’t baffled or amazed by it, but let’s put 16-14 in context:

Year: W-L in one-run games
2004: 14-19
2005: 18-30
2006: 14-24
2007: 16-14, so far.

2007 has been the only year the Royals have been above .500 in one-run games over the last four years, or even close to .500 for that matter. Now I forget if the common idea is that one-run games are largely luck (I think it is), but either way, it’s incredibly encouraging to see the Royals win the close ones. As a lousy analyst but close fan of KC, let me say that many, many, many times a very close loss always seemed to hurt me, almost personally. It’s great to see that trend reverse, if only to keep my Pepto supplies up.

Finally, the Royals are 13.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race (why not?).

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Also, a quick note about Leo Nunez—how about that kid?

His game log, via B-Ref:
July 17—4 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K | 2.25 ERA to date
July 29—6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K | 0.90 ERA to date
Aug. 5—4 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K | 1.93 ERA to date **
Aug. 11—6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K | 1.80 ERA to date

**All but August 5th was a start, but still—not bad, even for a small sample size.

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I’m trying to get back into the swing of things. I’m moving tomorrow though, so maybe not too soon. Still, feel free to use this thread for any kind of discussion you like.

ROYALS TO ASTROS
Carlos Beltran, CF

ASTROS TO ATHLETICS
Octavio Dotel, RP

ATHLETICS TO ROYALS
Mark Teahen, 3B
Mike Wood, SP/RP

ASTROS TO ROYALS
John Buck, C

This piece from Sam Mellinger at The Star breaks it down nicely:

The A’s needed a closer. Their bullpen was falling apart — 14 blown saves in 27 chances — jeopardizing the team’s playoff chances.

The Astros needed a superstar. They were five games back in the division and two back in the wild-card race.

And the Royals needed prospects. With more than a month before the trading deadline, Royals GM Allard Baird was interested in receiving prospects at catcher, third base and pitcher.

The piece also made me start to think—has this trade been a success for the Royals?

Personally, I remember being pretty down on it for the first year or so, mainly because Mike Wood was the only so-so part that came from it, and he was just a decent reliever. The Royals gave up an All-Star center fielder (granted, for only half a season) in exchange for a reliever and two duds?

Second-half 2003 stats:

KANSAS CITY
Buck—71 games, .235/.280/.424
Teahen—66 games (AAA), .280/.344/.447
Wood—100 IP, 5.94 ERA
HOUSTON
Beltran—90 games, .258/.368/.559
OAKLAND
Dotel—50.7 IP, 4.09 ERA

The only two major-league-caliber players were the two who weren’t on the Royals roster. Of course, Beltran went on to lead the Astros to a great finish (and a long but successful push to the playoffs) and had an insane postseason. He was only an Astro for half a summer, but he certainly delivered.

The next year, 2005, saw some things change in Buck, Teahen, and Wood, but not much. Buck gained a little bit in contact hitting but drastically lost power. Teahen was called up to the bigs and had a very mediocre season: .246/.309/.376 (82 OPS+) in 130 games. Wood shaved his ERA down to 4.46, and was a serviceable long- and middle-reliever out of the bullpen. But still, there was no real excitement from the three. The Royals traded The Carlos Beltran for three pretty bad major leaguers. Pretty bad young major leaguers, sure, but pretty bad major leaguers nonetheless.

2006 started to change things. Buck picked up a little more contact and dropped some more power, and became a really bad MLB catcher by all accounts. Wood’s ERA escalated back to 2004 numbers. But that Mark Teahen! Sent down to Triple-A after a horrendous start to the 2006 campaign, he figured out a hole in his inside swing, learned how to effectively pull the ball (he had been a push hitter extraordinaire up to that point), and hit for contact and power. He was sent back up to Kansas City and continued his success. He finished the season hitting .290/.357/.517 over 109 games before a shoulder injury (and surgery) ended his season early. He was voted the Royals player of the year.

Between 2006 and 2007, Mike Wood was given Super-2 status and was lost to the Texas Rangers organization, where he has played mostly at Triple-A but has accrued some MLB innings. He no longer factors into the discussion, but while he was in KC was just about the only immediately useful part of the Beltran trade for Kansas City. He was pretty much the best long reliever available in his time in KC, and did his job pretty well.

This year, John Buck has added his name to the Beltran trade discussions. After dropping power in every year since, he finally regained some of his pop, slugging .545 and already hitting a career-best 13 home runs in 50 games. He’s hitting .251/.342/.545 and is among the best hitting catchers this year, the second-best by my count (Jorge Posada at number one). He has really struggled as of late, though, and many of his numbers are a result of a red-hot early season.

Teahen has gained a little more OBP this year, but has really lost the pop from his bat. His .290/.357/.517 turned to .290/.367/.423 this year, not a great development from a right fielder.

It’s hard to judge value when you’re looking at such drastically different types of players. The Royals gave up one superstar for half a year in exchange for three prospects. On one hand, the immediate failure of the prospects would indicate a “win” for the Astros in the deal. It seems like the Teahen and Buck improvements were kind of lucky or fluky, and I’m not sure we can just hand the Royals credit for knowing what they were getting. Still, prospects are a lot like lottery tickets—you collect as many good ones as you can in hopes you get one or two to break out, and that’s what has happened here, so perhaps the Royals (Allard Baird) deserve credit for the deal’s positive turn in the last two years.

I’ll call it a toss. The Astros got a playoff appearance and a great half-season and postseason from Beltran. The Royals got three young guys, one of which was okay at first, and of which the other two have bloomed as of late. The Athletics, coincidentally, got screwed. In 2005 or early 2006, I would have called it a rousing failure on the level of the Jermaine Dye or Johnny Damon trades. Now, I like what the Royals have done.

I like that lineup.

But what do I know?

I’m just a blogger of simple stats. I’m not a Real Baseball Man. I watch ESPN, but I’m not sure I could tell you the difference between Gor-don and Tea-hen.

/Odd patriotic Alan Jackson song ripoff

In it, he suggested the Royals should trade David DeJesus to capitalize on his value. In light of my post yesterday, I wanted to highlight some points Bradford made, and comment on them.

The main reason now is the time to move DeJesus is what seems to be a decline in his defensive range. According to Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), a defensive metric from sabermetrician Mitchel Lichtman that many consider the gold standard for the topic, DeJesus’ defense has dropped to below-average levels this season (minus 14 runs per 150 games).

DeJesus has always had borderline speed for a center fielder; a fact that is also reflected in his disappointing base-stealing totals.

If DeJesus loses even a tick of foot speed at this point, he’s going to have to move to a different position. But as a player who has never reached double-figures in home runs, he doesn’t hit for enough power to play a corner outfield position on an everyday basis.

I can’t really agree totally here, in two areas. First, I’m not sure that a move to a corner outfield position would be impossible. After all, Ichiro Suzuki has never hit for power in right field (he’s now in Seattle’s center field, but spent several successful years in right) but was always considered among the best at the position. Now, I don’t mean to say DeJesus is even in Ichiro’s league, but I am saying sufficient hitting at a corner outfield spot doesn’t necessarily mean power hitting, especially considering the future presence of sluggers like Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, John Buck, and Billy Butler—all of whom should be around as long or longer than DeJesus.

Also, I don’t know that DeJesus’s base stealing numbers can accurately support the claim he’s losing speed—for some reason, he has always been a really below average baserunner. For instance, in the last two years, right fielder Mark Teahen has stolen 17 bases and has only been caught 3 times, but I’d always want DeJesus and not Teahen manning center field. But that’s only a minor point.

My second disagreement is that DeJesus would need to move to a corner outfield spot, even if he lost another step or two. That -14 UZR Bradford mentioned is certainly below average. That puts him, what, about 20th, 25th among center fielders? We’ll say he’ll cost the Royals 15 runs for the next several years. He’s still creating 5.6, 5.7 runs per game offensively (if we assume he’ll be hitting at his ‘05 and ‘06 levels). He finished seventh in 2005 RC/27 among center fielders, as calculated by ESPN, and tenth in 2006. What DeJesus loses for the team in defense he gains back in very solid, strong on-base hitting. Despite his lack of barnburning speed, his high OBP and consistently high pitch counts make him an average leadoff hitter at worst, and a pretty decent leadoff hitter at best. Considering that his contract calls for hundreds of thousands and not millions of dollars, DeJesus is a real bargain at center field, even if he brings sub-par defense.

All that said, it would be foolish to say DeJesus’s defense in center field is league elite or that he’d be just as valuable in a corner outfield spot. He’s certainly not the model center fielder.

While DeJesus may continue to be an above-average performer for the next couple of years, his career pattern gives pause for consideration. He smacks of a player destined for a short peak and a sharp decline.

If the most value in DeJesus’ remaining career is to be found during the next two seasons, then the Royals should move him. By the time the Royals are seriously ready to contend, DeJesus is unlikely to provide appropriate production for the dollars he is likely to command.

Again, this is not to say DeJesus is a bad player. He’s not. But as a marketable, non-impact talent, Dayton Moore should see what kind of return he could get on a potential trade.

I don’t know where Bradford is coming from when he speaks about DeJesus’s career pattern. I don’t mean that as an insult. It’s not that I disagree with Bradford, I just really have no idea what he’s looking at when he says that. I tend to disagree with his statement, but I’d love to see why he said DeJesus “smacks of a player destined for a short peak and a sharp decline.” It seems like a defendable statement. His first full year, 2005, was his best, and he hasn’t really improved since. If anything, it has been his career year so far. By now, his 27-year-old season, you’d hope for a pretty decent chunk of improvement, which he hasn’t shown. So I think some doubt in the longevity of DeJesus’s career is warranted, but I’ll explain why I’m a little more optimistic.

Here’s a list of ballplayers who have had comparable careers to DeJesus so far (through his age-27 year). If you take those same ten players and look at their career totals, you see that most went on to play in the league for many years. One played four years, one played eight years, one played eleven years, four played twelve years, one played thirteen years, and one played fifteen years. And most of the comparables had pretty good careers. One thing that does concern me about DeJesus’s comparables: most were from the deadball era and played in the ‘10s, ‘20s, and ‘30s. One played during the ‘50s, one played in the ‘70s and ‘80s, and one played in the ‘90s. The player from the ‘70s and ‘80s, Steve Henderson, played for 12 years and only had one below-average year offensively in his entire career. The player from the ‘90s, Bernard Gilkey, played for 12 years and had four below-average years offensively but had some really, really great seasons, including finishing 14th in the 1996 NL MVP race. So, long story short, I hold out some real hope for DeJesus’s future, based on the people who have had similar careers to him thus far.

----------

I agree with Bradford overall. I think the Royals should shop DeJesus—my favorite Royal—hard at the deadline this year. He is perhaps the most valuable asset the Royals have, outside of untouchable Alex Gordon, because he’s entering his prime and is still in indentured servitude contract status. The Royals can deal him to a team a little nervous about entering the Andruw Jones/Torii Hunter/Ichiro Suzuki bidding battles but who still want a good center fielder at a bargain price of a few prospects. I wouldn’t want to trade him if I thought the Royals could push for the playoffs next year. But, with Gordon and Billy Butler just now getting the major leagues, perhaps it’s wiser to try to bring in more upper-level prospects for future production in exchange for DeJesus’s production now.

Anyway, I thought it was a really interesting column from Bradford and wanted to pass it along.

I don’t think the Royals will ever trade DeJesus because it would be a big PR risk—KC fans are quick to look at trades of value for prospects as just another Jermaine Dye or Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon trade. DeJesus is a popular player and is among the best players in KC right now, a guy I doubt Dayton Moore wants to ship out of town. Also, Dayton Moore and David Glass seem very serious about re-signing players when their contract time comes up. So I doubt DeJesus gets moved, but I thought the column from Bradford was really interesting and it provoked a lot of thinking from me.

Two Baseball-Reference pages—DeJesus’ Stats | Splits

I pointed out a couple of things that made me a bit uneasy:

(1) The most obvious, his bad history with injury. In 2005, he played in 122 games. In 2006, he played in 119 games. In 2007, it’d be nice to see 140, 145, 150+ games from him.

How’s he doing in 2007? So far so good. In fact, very, very good. Of the Royals’ 64 games, DeJesus has played in 63 of them. His 63 games has him tied with two Orioles for the AL lead in games played—Nick Markakis and Miguel Tejada—who have played in every single Baltimore game this year. DeJesus is also tied with Grady Sizemore (at 290, eight more than Derek Jeter at number three) for the AL lead in plate appearances.

(2) His right/left hitting splits. Between ‘05 and ‘06, DeJesus improved against lefties pretty drastically, especially in the power department. But he regressed against righties, again especially with power. Now it’s never great to see regression from a hitter, it’s especially disheartening when a 26-year-old hits worse than he did the year before. Including his improvement against lefties, his overall average from ‘06 creeped up .002 from his ‘05 numbers, but even that’s a bit underwhelming when considering he was moving from his second to third year in the league, from his 25-year-old season to his 26-year-old season. Hitting against righties is crucial for any hitter, so it worried me that DeJesus was dropping production in that regard. That said, I’d be the first to admit the sample sizes from his ‘05 and ‘06 seasons are pretty small.

How’s he doing in 2007? Versus RHP: .262/.337/.361 | Versus LHP: .278/.363/.400. Needless to say, both sets of splits are down from his 2005 and 2006 seasons. But my concerns about DeJesus hitting righties have not been helped at all this year. Comparing his batting averages of Vs.RHP and Vs.LHP over the last three years: In 2005—+.030 Vs.RHP. In 2006—+.020 Vs.LHP. In 2007—+.015 Vs.LHP. As a lefty, you want to see DeJesus hitting the righties harder than he has been. Even adjusting for his slump this year, he’s not hitting righties well at all.

Interesting but unrelated split for DeJesus: After a 1-0 count, DeJesus is hitting .253/.368/.333. After a 0-1 count, he’s hitting .277/.343/.454.

---

But there is some good news. Despite suffering his young career’s worst slump yet this year—a real oddity coming from a Mr. Steady-and-Dependable like DeJesus—he might be reaching the end, and turning toward the daylight. Again, thanks to B-Ref:

April/March: .308/.378/.486 (119 plate appearances)
May: .211/.297/.289 (128 PA)
June: .324/.405/.432 (43 PA so far)

Also:

Last 28 days: .231/.316/.317 (118 PA)
Last 14 days: .255/.340/.340 (54 PA)
Last 07 days: .357/.455/.464

[Sidenote: Anyone else kinda worried about the lack of pop in his bat, even with the major resurgence?]

Of course, he could just be having a great week, but even if it’s flukey, it’s great to see a guy struggling so hard break out, even for a bit. And, knowing DeJesus and what I believe to be his true talent level, I think this success isn’t going away soon.

Well Elarton did struggle—allowing four runs in five innings—and is the textbook case why wins and losses are practically useless when comparing pitchers: with tonight’s win, Elarton is 2-2 with a 7.34 ERA. But Garcia didn’t even make it out of the second inning, giving up six runs over five outs.

Anywho, I had various thoughts that cropped up in the old skull during the game, so I figure I might as well put them down here so I can remove all doubt that I’m dumb.

---Buddy Bell is actually a pretty good manager, but he has a great sense of humor. Don’t believe me? Why did Jason LaRue start again tonight? Bell knows he’s going to get fired, so he’s having a ton of fun making subtle but devastating mistakes game in and game out. Why did Tony Pena—who was tied with David DeJesus with the second-best batting average in tonight’s lineup, if we consider Joey Gathright’s .500+ average non-legit—hit eighth? (You’ve got some offense with Pena, a moderately dead spot in Gathright, back to some offense with DeJesus.) Mike Sweeney hitting fourth, Alex Gordon hitting fifth, Ryan Shealy hitting sixth has to be the worst 4-5-6 combo in the majors. Tony Pena, Esteban German, (John Buck,) even Shane Costa or Joey Gathright would all be better options to try at the five- or six-hole. What about Pena hitting second, Grudzielanek hitting fifth?

---Aaron Rowand is having a great year.

---Jimmy Rollins swing looks pretty.

---I’m okay with Joel Peralta coming in with a two-run lead. But it’s odd that David Riske, Jimmy Gobble, Joakim Soria, and Octavio Dotel, all better relievers who were used tonight, couldn’t combine to cover Peralta’s inning.

---The Royals had a ton of cheap hits tonight. Between all the broken bat singles, the whoopsy-blooper singles, the reach-out-and-poke-it singles, all of which were usually followed by a home run, I feel like the Royals didn’t really outhit the Phillies. I can’t think of one solid hit from a Royal that wasn’t a home run, with the exception of LaRue’s double, but that should have been a home run so I’m not going to fawn over it. Regardless, when you’re the Royals, you take the hits, even if they’re more a product of luck than a product of talent.

Okay, I didn’t have as many thoughts as I thought I would when I started this, plus I’m kinda tired. So… I’ll just leave it there and walk away.

ROUND 1, PICK 2—Mike Moustakas, 1b/3b

If they weren’t going to take a pitcher with the second overall pick in the draft (they could have made it easy on themselves by losing one of the last three games last season and just picked David Price, but what can you do?), I would have hoped the Royals would have gone with catcher Matt Weiters. That said, I’m very willing to admit I know little about the various potential Royals draftees, so perhaps I should leave my love of good-hitting catchers alone and just listen to the experts.

Baseball America on Moustakas:

No premium draft pick had a better season than Moustakas, who had one of the great careers in California high school history. [...] He was the starting quarterback at Chatsworth as a freshman and has a bazooka for an arm--his fastball sat in the low 90s early in the year in relief roles and hit 97 mph in April. His power arm isn’t his best tool though, as Moustakas’ quiet, quick hands, polished approach and strength at the plate produce light-tower power and a smooth swing he repeats easily. Earlier in the year, scouts wondered about his defensive position--he’s Chatsworth’s shortstop but will move immediately as a pro. Most believe third base would be the first natural spot and others dreamed of his arm behind the plate, but most agree now that it doesn’t matter. His bat will play at any spot, even first base, though it would be a shame to waste that arm there. [...]

But Sam Mellinger at The Star has an interesting tidbit:

Most projections had Moustakas moving to third base or first base, but Royals scouting director Deric Ladnier and general manager Dayton Moore each said today that they think Moustakas can play shortstop in the big leagues.

ROUND 2, PICK 2—Sam Runion, RHP

Funny but hurtful tidbit from the Asheville Citizen-Times:

Baseball America currently rates Runion as the country’s 109th-best draft prospect, high school or college, meaning the AFLAC All-American would go somewhere in the third round if projections hold true.

How about the beginning of the second? He’s also either super-smart or really good at Home Ec. Royals Corner:

Runion has a big, solid frame, and reports are that his fastball sits in the low-90s with heavy sink. He also throws a slider that is a potential plus pitch. Reynolds was an AFLAC All-American, and he maintained a high school GPA of 4.3.

ROUND 3, PICK 2—Danny Duffy, LHP

Mr. Duffy graduated today—what a day, eh? Anywho, the LA Times has an interesting feature on Duffy I recommend you read if interested. Also, here is some good stuff from a past Baseball America blog post:

His fastball touched 95 according to our sources, sitting at 91-93 with his four-seamer. His two-seamer had good life in the upper 80s, with tailing action away from righthanded hitters.

Duffy’s mechanics aren’t clean, but his arm works well, which encourages scouts that his mechanical flaws can be remedied in the future. That would improve his greatest weakness, his command. His changeup is nothing but a show-me pitch at this point, but he’s a high school lefty throwing in the low-90s, so throwing a changeup would be doing hitters a favor.

He’s not a finished product, but he’s a power lefty with upside. At 6-foot-3 and close to 200 pounds, Duffy has to get in better shape or his rather mature frame will get away from him, but if he tones up his body, he’ll be able to get even better with his power repertoire. His stuff may be too good for him to keep his commitment, as Duffy could get popped in the first three rounds.

ROUND 4, PICK 2—Peter Hodge Nielsen, RHP

Because “Peter Hodge Nielsen” has zero results in Google, I looked around. Royals Corner had the name “Mitch Hodge,” which I figure is right. So who is Mitch Hodge anyway? It turns out he is a philosopher and classicist, a Hollywood stunt car driver, a web designer, the administrator and administrator of an Internet philosophy journal and master debater, and a professional bodybuilder and youth pastor. Perhaps more appropriately to our discussion, he’s a right-handed pitcher out of Canada. We’ll trust RC for the bio:

Hodge, a Canadian pitcher, was selected by the Royals with the club’s fourth round pick. Hodge is a big-bodied kid who works his fastball in the low-90s, along with a sharp breaking ball in the mid- to upper-70s.

ROUND 5, PICK 2—Adrian Ortiz, OF

The only college player selected by the Royals today, Ortiz is an outfielder from Pepperdine. Weighing in at 165 pounds over a 6-foot frame, Ortiz is the fastest player in the draft. Here are two links you might want to read: his Pepperdine bio; RC.

They break it down into two thoughts and each columnist takes one. Adam Madison took the “Gil Meche isn’t for real” angle. He addresses Meche’s positives first—peripherals like his walk rate and home run rate, and the length of his starts (6 2/3 IP per start, much higher than past years). Then he delves into why he believes Meche won’t finish the season as strongly as he has started: (1) “the AL Central is tough to pitch in,” (2) “the Royals are 27th in defensive efficiency, which is a rather big negative since a poor defense results in more balls in play” (which has to be a typo—hopefully he meant more balls in play become hits, not simply more balls in play). Madison continues to say this might be a career year for Meche, but he’s still regressing toward the mean.

I agree with the first point (AL Central), but I don’t know how much of a difference it’ll make by the end of the year. I’m not so sure about the second point. Perhaps their defensive efficiency as a whole is down, but if you look at Meche’s ball placement, you’ll see that he’s getting an insane amount of groundballs and pop flies. He is severely limiting the number of line drives. And those groundballs? It helps when you have a Gold Glove-winning second baseman and a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop. It’s not that I don’t think the Royals defense as a whole could be better—I most certainly do—I just don’t think it’ll have much affect on the rest of Meche’s season, even if he allows more line drives.

(I don’t mean to blow off Will Harris’ thoughts on why Meche is the real deal, but half of it seems to deal with Meche’s improvements on the road, which seems weak because he’s only played on the road six times so far this year, against six different teams.)

But looking at things like Meche’s 4.17 FIP (fielding independent pitching, an estimate of a pitcher’s expected ERA based on non-fielding things like strikeouts, walks, homeruns, etc.) would suggest that perhaps he has been lucky. So… it’s another over/under game.

Gil Meche’s ERA right now: 3.00
(1) Gil Meche’s ERA by the All-Star Break: 3.00
(2) Gil Meche’s ERA by the All-Star Break: 3.50
(3) Gil Meche’s ERA by the end of the year: 3.50
(4) Gil Meche’s ERA by the end of the year: 4.17

Gil Meche—3 wins (5 losses) in 13 games
(5) Gil Meche’s Ws by ASB: 5
(6) Gil Meche’s Ws by the end of the year: 10

Also, feel free to use this thread as any type of Royals draft talk, or Royals talk period, really.