The Red Sox Offseason Shopping With the Benefit of Hindsight

Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox have done this offseason, acknowledging of course, that we have the benefit of hindsight. Here are most of the annual salaries they’ve committed to since the season ended (all numbers are 2010 AAV salary, from Cot’s Baseball Contracts):

John Lackey, $17.5M
Adrian Beltre, $10M
Mike Cameron, $7.75M
Marco Scutaro, $6.25M
Jeremy Hermida, $3.345M
Bill Hall, $2.6M

Total: $47.445M

That is a pretty hefty chunk of change that the Red Sox were willing to plunk down for the 2010 team--far more than I expected them to be spending. Seeing that total, I can think of a couple of different scenarios that would have benefited the team more for 2010 and for the future as well. Most of them center around one player--Matt Holliday. Holliday has been a better player than Lackey, is younger, and projects better for the future. He’s also not a pitcher, meaning his health seems a lot less likely to nosedive. They could have signed Holliday instead of Lackey (same salary), replaced Cameron with Rich Harden and spent the same amount of money for a little more projection and a bit less risk.

That’s a pretty close call. Those two…

Offseason Minor League Thread: The Search for More WMD

So, Ryan Westmoreland is good or something?  MLB.com says he’s a true five-tool talent, a future 30-30 center fielder.  I had him in my head as basically the same as Ryan Kalish, except in short season A-ball.  But according to Jonathan Mayo and Keith Law, I’m wrong and he’s awesome.  WMD ranked #27 in MLB.com’s top 50 list, and #32 on Law’s top 100.  For a kid with 250 professional PA, that’s a great ranking. 

Both these lists made me much more excited about the talent in this farm system than I was before.  Kelly, who I thought had questionable stuff (for a top prospect), clocked in at #18 for Law and #28 for Mayo.  Jose Iglesias made Mayo’s top 50 and Law’s top 100.  The farm doesn’t totally suck.

Law even included Tazawa, Lars, Kalish, and confusingly, Anthony Rizzo.

ESPN: Keith Law’s Top 100 (some insider content)
MLB: Jonathan Mayo’s Top 50

Can We Beat the Yankees?  Will We Beat the Yankees?

The Red Sox offseason is basically over.  The Yankees aren’t done – they need a left fielder, and their bench looks short a bat and maybe an infielder.  It’s close enough to start talking about next season’s projections. 

I have the Yankees better by two or three wins.  I’d like to be the favorites, but the Yankees have a heckuva club.  The Red Sox are in reasonable position to win the division, and that’s enough for me, as a fan.  To break it down into component parts, here are CHONE’s numbers for both clubs - I chose this system because CHONE very helpfully sorts its projections by runs above replacement.  Red Sox come first in the chart, then Yankees.  For position players, it’s listed as offense +/- defense.

C 19 – 1, 11 – 4 (Martinez, Posada)
1B 30 + 4, 33 + 5 (Youkilis, Teixeira)
2B 20 + 5, 16 + 4 (Pedroia, Cano)
3B 0 + 4, 37 – 6 (Beltre, Rodriguez)
SS 3 + 8, 15 – 11 (Scutaro, Jeter)
LF -3 + 7, 19 + 4 (Cameron, Johnny Holliday)
CF 7 + 6, 14 + 4 (Ellsbury, Granderson)
RF 19 + 2, 18 – 1 (Drew, Swisher)…

A Festivus Miracle?

Maybe it’s a gift from three wise men (Larry, John, and Tom?) or maybe it’s just a nice bit of PR as they try to unload tickets this holliday season, but the Red Sox are making noise about continuing to spend even though they’ve already upped their budget substantially. This Bradford article suggests that they are considering increasing payroll to make an offer to Jason Bay. Putting aside the wisdom of going after Bay, this makes sense and should be a welcome sign to Red Sox fans.

It makes sense for the team because they only have about $79 million committed for the 2011 season (per Cot’s contracts). A one-time bump for 2010 would cost them in luxury tax but would set them up with a strong core going forward while their young talent makes its way up the minor-league ladder. Adding an outfielder would present a log-jam, but it would also allow them to deal Ellsbury + (not Buchholz) for Adrian Gonzalez, who is still reasonably cheap. It would present some tough decisions after the 2010 season, but getting the budget back into their comfort range would be doable. Maybe this, saying goodbye to Ellsbury, and trying to deal Lowell,…

John Lackey - the pretty logical Red Sox free agent target we forgot to mention earlier

The Sox are giving John Lackey a physical.  I wonder if a club’s trainers have ever recommended facial plastic surgery before?

Lackey is clearly the best free agent pitcher, and clearly the second best free agent out there after Matt Holliday.  While Holliday makes the most sense for Boston, and is better than Lackey, he’s also ticketed for New York.  The one good aspect of that inevitable (and smart) signing will be watching Yankee fans clamor over each other to perform their shock and surprise at the move.

Lackey looks like something like a 4 WAR pitcher going over his recent numbers in VORP and Fangraphs runs above replacement:

VORP: 33.5, 35.3, 63.0, 48.6 / RAR: 38.8, 20.8, 55.2, 59.3

CHONE projects him to 37 runs above replacement.  I think there’s a reasonable case that Lackey, with two plus pitches and a history of ace-level performance, is a better bet to age well than the average pitcher with his history, but I think the rumored 5/80 is a reasonable price to pay for a pitcher of this quality. 

The key factor, for me, is not whether this contract is significantly favorable compared to the average $$/win numbers across MLB – and…

Lowell Dealt for Max Ramirez?

Robothal says Lowell + $12 mil to the Rangers for Max Ramirez is a done deal, pending physicals and owner approvals (???).

Wow, they ate lot--I hope that means they think a lot of Ramirez. Then again, maybe they think Beltre will be under-priced by at least $12 mil. 

Good Offseason, Bad Offseason.  What’s the Difference?

There are a number of articles now floating around about how the Red Sox would be perfectly happy to head into spring training without making any acquisitions more significant than Marco Scutaro and Jeremy Hermida.  While obviously once again I could be accused of taking front office spin as evidence of actual front office thinking, I believe the question is a useful one.  What constitutes an acceptable offseason for a club like the Red Sox?  Does plugging a couple holes and counting on upgrades acquired last July cut it?

I don’t think so.  I will not be pleased with the Red Sox offseason unless they either sign Holliday or trade for Halladay.  The Red Sox will not project to be competitive for the AL East next year without a major upgrade, and Holliday and Halladay are the only players who could provide that sort of boost.  (Various pony trades could meet this requirement as well.)

The Red Sox don’t articulate their goals in terms of the division pennant, but they talk about 95 wins and the playoffs.  Is this a 95-win team?  They won 95 last year, and I don’t think they’ve done nearly enough to offset the expected regression to…

Putting Scutaro in Context

Because there just haven’t been enough articles about the Scutaro signing on this site, I’ve decided to add one more. I’ve been pretty surprised about how negative (or indifferent) some posters here have been toward this move. This is understandable, I suppose, in light of how other recent shortstop signings have worked out. Both Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo looked liked solidly good players when they were signed only to perform below expectations and be dealt away (with cash added).

But I think another problem is that Scutaro’s slash lines are pretty unexciting to look at:

2007: .260/.332/ .361
2008: .267/.341/ .356
2009: .282 /.379/.409

Blah. Who’s going to get excited about that? But a shortstop with those numbers is actually pretty darn valuable. Here’s how those stat lines convert to runs for over 150 game season for a full-time SS. (All numbers form Fangraphs; I’ve assumed that Scutaro is a +5 SS, which has been about his average over those past three years; the other numbers are rounded).

2007
Batting: -8.5; Fielding: +5; Replacement: +20; Positional: +7.5 = +25 runs, or 2.5 WAR

2008
Batting: -7.5; Fielding: +5; Replacement: +20; Positional: +7.5 = +26 runs, or 2.6 WAR

2009
Batting:…

Dustin Pedroia, shortstop?

Bill James, 1982: “Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work.”
Boston Red Sox, 2009: “Let’s shift our two best players rightward along the defensive spectrum”

Reports have come out from Boston recently that the Sox have discussed with both Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia the possibility of these players taking up more demanding defensive roles next year – Youkilis could move to third base and Pedroia to short. 

It should be noted that these reports also serve a negotiating purpose, positioning the Red Sox as more flexible, less dependent on Marco Scutaro’s contract demands or the whims of various possible 1B/3B backups.  But I think the moves make sense in themselves.  Pedroia and Youkilis seem like good candidates to be exceptions to James’ rule – Pedroia was a shortstop through the minors and has been a superlative defensive second baseman.  Kevin Youkilis was a third baseman through the minors, and moved entirely because the Red Sox acquired Mike Lowell to play third base, and has been a good defensive first baseman. 

I especially like the idea of moving Pedroia to short.  I worry about Youkilis, whose power surge has been dependent on significant added bulk, and who isn’t all…

The 2009-2010 Offseason, Theo Style Part 4: The Big Deal that Is Really Going to Happen (or not)

I hadn’t thought of this piece of the offseason puzzle when I came up with this idea for an offseason series, but the big deal is a part of every offseason. ARod was the first, IIRC. Weeks of fevered speculation followed by the news that the darn players union hadn’t allowed it to go through. Curse you, organized labor for not bowing to our needs! For several years, Manny Ramirez filled this role with aplomb. Manny was always about to be dealt. Things had finally reached a boiling point and the team had set a deadline by which they wanted to make a deal. Then, the deadline would come, and we’d find out that those darn other teams hadn’t come through with the good. Drat! Johan Santana joined the fun a few years ago but apparently the Twins weren’t interested in actual good players for him (I kid!). And last year, of course, that greedy jerk Mark Teixeira was bought up by those dastardly Yankees and all their money instead of our team and all its money. This year, it appears that Roy Halladay will be the target. I wonder if the Red Sox will be able to agree with the…

The 2009-2010 Offseason, Theo Style, Part III: The Rotation

Last offseason, the Red Sox took some quite large risks in the rotation by shelling out moderate contracts to Brad Penny and John Smoltz, neither of which provided them with much value at all. The one nice thing about those deals was that they were only for one year, allowing the Red Sox to have some money freed up for the rotation this year. And with Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield in the rotation, there’s certainly room for another starter. That’s especially true in light of the “depth at all cost” theme.

So, who will it be? They could go after total reclamation jobs like Ben Sheets or Erik Bedard (or both!). But I wonder if maybe the experience last year (and with Bartolo Colon and Wade Miller and...) might have soured them a bit on such high risk guys. Justin Duchscherer was an effective pitcher before missing last year entirely. But he is recovering from depression and may be better off, initially at least, in some place that is little more low key. Chien-Ming Wang? Looks like a really risky bet too.

Then there’s Rich Harden, who I think may be the best fit of all. First, despite a…

The 2009-2010 Offseason, Theo Style, Part II: SS

Remember, the key here is to pile up a depth of decent to good players. Because this is the case, there’s just no way that the 2010 season can start with Jed Lowrie as the starting SS and only a utility infielder behind him. He’s just too risky in the health (and possible talent) department. Option 1 would be to trade for a SS who’s established himself as a good Major Leaguer, pushing Lowrie into a utility role. Hardy would have been a good fit but he’s already been dealt. Another option would be Yunel Escobar, if the Braves are still interested in dealing him, as was rumored at the break. A cheaper and slightly less established option would be Alberto Callaspo (why do I feel like I just said the name Asmodios aloud?), who appears to be available. Both of these guys would cost some pretty serious talent. If the price for these guys is too high, then option 2 would be to sign a solid but unremarkable vet, preferably a good glove to compliment Lowrie’s hitting. Alex Gonzalez is a good choice, as is Jack Wilson. 

The 2009-2010 Offseason, Theo Style

It’s taken me a couple years but I’ve finally come to terms with how this team operates. They place an extremely high priority on reaching 95-ish wins and very little importance on winning the division. I’ve found this frustrating and often disagreed with some of the ways they went about it, but now I’ve realized that there is no point in getting all bent out of shape about it. They’re not going to change their tactics to please a small minority of fans (I think there are 2 of us) who want division titles.

It’s this strategy that has informed the Red Sox offseasons in the past. Given the chance to pay a premium for an elite player, they usually instead opt for pretty good players, some inexpensive risky types, and a ridiculous amount of depth. This is how you end up with $10 mil. benches and rotations with two big gambles. With a core of very good players in place, I’m guessing that this season will be more of the same. Based on this, I’m going to be making a few posts outlining what I think the Sox will do this offseason.

I’ll start with LF since they already got…

2009 in Review: A Manager’s Season

What I’m interested in, when talking about managers, are the various things they do over the course of a season which have real and large effects on team wins – building bullpens and platoons, evaluating and developing young players, evaluating injured and aging players, and integrating both groups into the team – rather than tactics and lineup order.  On the Red Sox, we know that these choices are not made by Terry Francona alone, but that front office folks are involved in all larger issues of roster management, and John Farrell has a lot to do with the bullpens, in particular.  I think, though, that Francona should be evaluated based on the whole – he probably does hold a veto on most of these decisions if he absolutely disagrees, and he’s the man in the clubhouse telling the players what he needs them to do. 
I’ve selected out several key problems that Francona had to resolve over the course of the season.  These were – the bullpen, the back of the rotation, shortstop, Lowell and Varitek, and Big Papi.  Overall, everything besides the management of the back of the rotation was solid to great, but the failures of evaluation and management…

Hot Stove Already?

[MCOA at it again, figuring what to do this offseason.]

There are already three threads with Red Sox off-season talk ongoing.  My quick take is that a lot of these discussions center on the Red Sox acquiring Joe Mauer, Felix Hernandez, Albert Pujols, or Mecha-Pedro.  Suffice it to say that I support Theo Epstein’s ongoing effort to construct a Mecha-Pedro out of muffin tins and VCR chips, and I would whole-heartedly sign off on any similar acquisitions.  There’s not really much further commentary one can give, though.  Great trades for great players are great.  Let’s wait at least until we have real reports of trade talks.

Looking over the roster (see below), they need a shortstop and a left fielder, they could use one more good starter, one more good setup man, and some rotation depth. 

The Sox should have something like $20-25M to spend this offseason (~$115M locked up, $135-140M projected).  That’s one superstar and some free talent, or a few solid players.  The obvious free agent target is Matt Holliday – he fits the Red Sox perfectly and he’s exactly the sort of excellent all-around player they like handing out big contracts too.  Spitballing, would 7/130 get it done?…

Well, That Sucked

[MCOA chimes in the the postmortem.

I just got back from the ballgame, and I thought it might be interesting to post
my thoughts after watching the game, see how they match up.

There were so many ways that the Red Sox could have not lost this game.
Papelbon makes a two-strike pitch to one of Aybar, Figgins, or Abreu.  Or
Papelbon picks Aybar off second after Gonzalez got in behind him.  Bay hits the
cut-off man and maybe holds Abreu to a single.  Youkilis makes a pretty routine
play on a grounder down the line.  At every point there, the Angels made the
plays they needed and the Red Sox didn’t.

It was hard for me to see where Francona should have done something differently
– if you want to pull Papelbon earlier, you have to give up the platoon
advantage.  Do you warm up Josh Beckett?  I guess that would be an option.  Or,
better, load the bases, then bring on DiceK!

In the end, the Angels outplayed the Red Sox for three games in a row, and it
probably feels particularly good for their fans to get a walk-off after the Sox
have piled postseason walk-offs on them…

Back to Boston, Down 2-0

Someone didn’t send the Angels the message that they are supposed to be losing. Heading back to Boston, the Red Sox have their work cut out for them. They’ve burned their two best starters and now must hope for their lesser lights to get the job done. Here’s hoping. 

Why the Red Sox Are Going to Be Totally Awesome in the Postseason

[MCOA breaks out the CFBPS to size up the Red Sox’ chances in the postseason.]

1) The Red Sox are best at preventing runs of the AL playoff teams.  Despite working in the worst pitcher’s park in the American League, they ranked third in runs allowed, behind only the White Sox and Mariners.  The playoff staff reflects the season staff – Lester is one of the five best pitchers in the league, and Beckett tops any other club’s #2.  Matsuzaka is clearly healthy and back to his old 110 ERA+ ways.  The bullpen is even stronger, with Wagner, Bard, and Okajima setting up Papelbon, who is back to being utterly dominant.  No matter whom the Sox play among the AL playoff clubs, they have a significant run prevention advantage.

2) The offense is better than it looks.  Varitek and Green, with their 700 and below OPSes, have been benched, replaced by an All-Star in Martinez and a solid contributor in Gonzalez.  The Red Sox upgraded their lineup at the trade deadline to a far greater degree than any of the other AL playoff clubs, each of whom is running out basically the same team they’ve had all season.  Further, David Ortiz…

Through 162--What Say You?

A lot of the focus at this time of year is, for good reason, on the upcoming playoffs. But now is also a great time to take a look back at the season. After all of the ups and downs, the Red Sox came in at 95-67, the third best record in the American League. They got some very exciting performances, including Jacoby Ellsbury’s shattering of the team’s SB record, another sub-2.00 ERA out of Jonathan Papelbon (ho hum), and great partial seasons from trade acquisitions Victor Martinez and Alex Gonzalez. On the negative side of the ledger, Daisuke Matsuzaka was terrible briefly and then gone for most of the season, Jed Lowrie couldn’t stay healthy, David Ortiz’s season was--in sum--lousy, and Manny Delcarmen finally lived down the expectations of the fans.

Overall, despite my frustration with the approach at times, I thought this was a pretty good season. What was your take?

Playoff Roster Thread: Finally, Our Chance to Talk about George Kottaras

[Matt Clement of Alexandria has volunteered to contribute some content during the playoff drive. Here’s his first entry--it’s quite entertaining. Enjoy.]

The Red Sox clinched the AL Wild Card last night in dramatic fashion, sitting around in their underwear watching Texas lose on the teevee, following a five-game losing streak.  Bathos is a kind of drama.  The team has used the last two weeks for a specific purpose – not winning games, but determining their playoff roster.  So we actually have a good bit of evidence for what the Red Sox are trying out (Michael Bowden and Paul Byrd) and what they’re not (George Kottaras).  This is the playoff roster discussion thread.

The fun thing about the playoff roster discussion is that the topics which will be discussed will almost certainly have no effect on the outcome of the playoff series next week.  But you never know!  The 1999 Cleveland Indians are always the club that comes to mind – they lost to the Red Sox in great part because Mike Hargrove and John Hart decided not to carry a single long reliever on their roster, even though their starting rotation included Jaret Wright. 

Starters: Martinez, Youkilis, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Lowell, Bay,…

The Wonderful Year of Jacoby Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury is having just about the type of offensive year that most projection systems expected him to have. His slash line of .304/.356/.423 is just about what ZIPS, James, and company had him for coming into the year. Yet, somehow, I’m very happily surprised at his success. Perhaps it was his mediocre start to the year or his stellar 63/10 SB/CS ratio. But whatever it is, he’s been a lot of fun to watch.

What is baffling about this year is how horrible Fangraphs’ UZR thinks his defense is. He is rated at -11.0/150 games. I would have no trouble believing that Ellsbury was an average CF this year. He looks to be pretty good to my eyes, but I could understand if they were off by that amount. But I find it unfathomable that he is as terrible as this numbers say. And lest you think it’s some quirk of Fenway, he and Coco Crisp have both posted very good CF UZR numbers in recent years.

On a side note, something else weird is going on with Fangraphs’ numbers. Despite Ellsbury’s rating of -11.0/150, Fangraphs thinks that has cost his team -12.7 runs in the 141 games he’s played…

Time to Break the Latest Curse

If the Red Sox are going to go out and pickup a former Red Sox SS, they should get on the phone to Oakland and see if they can reacquire Nomar for one last shot. He played SS adequately for LA last year and put up a 792 OPS. There is at least an outside chance he’ll be a viable bat at the bottom of the lineup. And getting him back may break the string of horrible, awful, SS-related decisions that have happened since his departure. 

So, What Is the Best Lineup, Anyway?

With the additions of Casey Kotchman and Victor Martinez, the Red Sox have a lot of flexibility in their lineups. What’s the best lineup to be putting out there on a nightly basis? If it were up to me, I’d do this:

Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Martinez C/1B
Youkilis 3B
Drew RF
Bay LF (assuming he’s back)
Ortiz/Lowell DH (platoon)
Kotchman 1B (or Tek C)
Lowrie/Green SS

Install Martinez as the starting catcher with Tek spotting him, playing there about twice a week and pushing Martinez to 1B. Lowell can still hit but he’s a statue at 3B--he’s a DH for the rest of the year. And he’ll likely be a nice improvement from Ortiz vs. lefties. Kotchman has a bigger role here than you might expect, but his defense makes him a better choice than Lowell right now. 

How about Putting in the Best Lineup?

Make sure to play Nick Green every other day. Give David Ortiz a day off from his strenuous DH role. Wait until JD Drew starts hitting, then sit him down for a night. Whatever you do, don’t put your best lineup on the field on any given night. This team is acting (again) like they’ve got the playoffs all locked up, when in fact they face a reasonably serious threat from Texas and Tampa Bay (the division is very unlikely at this point). This is not a good idea. 

Red Sox Trade Deadline Thread

I like the deal of Lugo, the deal to get LaRoche for very little, and the DFA of Kotsay (who has really been a poor fit for this team since last year, when he took away Casey’s spot). Will anything else happen before the deadline? The Red Sox have a ton of pitching depth to deal and I would love to see some of it put to use on a real difference maker. Halladay fits the bill, but I don’t think they will deal him in the division. 

Chips Are just Worthless Pieces of Plastic if You Don’t Cash Them in

The Red Sox depth in pitching is a great asset, but it could serve them a lot better if they were willing to part with it. They have a rotation that goes about nine deep and a pen that has very reliable relief pitchers throwing mop-up (as well as some decent options in AAA). Meanwhile, it is not uncommon to see a Boston lineup that includes Nick Green, George Kottaras, and Mark Kotsay. The Red Sox really should cash in some of these chips to land a bat that is worth having in the lineup. Give up a quality reliever who’s under control for a few years for Nick Johnson. Take on Tejada’s contract and give up a bit more talent than is comfortable. Or try to pick up the resurgent Cristian Guzman. Maybe get crazy and deal one of your untouchables to try to land a Victor Martinez type. Worry about figuring out the playing time when Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz are all healthy and productive.

The AL East is tight and getting tighter. The Red Sox should be bold in trying to acquire a difference maker. 

Around the Minors: International Signings, Updated BA Top 25 and Staten Island

WEEI.com had a blog entry yesterday announcing that the Red Sox signed a couple of 16 year-old right-handers, and potential kung-fu fighters, Mario & Raul Alcantara, who evidently are not related. Mario went for $500k and Raul for $350k both throw mid-eighties with breaking stuff, and are big framed (6-foot-3), so one would think the RedSox are projecting a lot of growth.  Raul is supposedly, one of the better international pitchers on the market this period.  Neither pitcher is listed in Baseball America’s top 25 Latin America Free Agents. 

Papi Is Officially Back

Seven HRs in the past 17 games now and looking very good at the plate--this is an actual hot streak, not just a streak of “good as I used to be.” I’m now confident that David Ortiz is not only a decent hitter now, but likely to put something close to his established level of excellence. I think a line of .270/.360/.540 for the rest of the season is a reasonable expectation. 

Red Sox Odds and Ends

A few things going on, most notably, the Dice-K situation.

--Dice K had an MRI which didn’t show any structural damage. But, turns out he has “weakness,” so it’s off to the DL! Taking his place until Smoltz is activated--Dusty Brown? The need for a non-hitting 3rd catcher is puzzling. You think they’d want to have Hunter Jones’s arm around for a bit, but likely inconsequential.

--Nick Green, today’s big hero, seems to be starting full time. It will be interesting to see what happens when Lowrie comes back. Will they eat Lugo’s contract? Will Green remain the starter? Will the obsession with depth prompt them to keep Lowrie in AAA with Lugo on the big league roster?

--Dustin Pedroia’s shown an amazing ability to drop his batting average. I have to believe this just part of his streaky nature. Still, his demise corresponded rather well with his move to the leadoff role. Maybe they’ll move him out now.

--Jonathan Papelbon is still struggling with control but somehow getting the job done. We should count ourselves lucky if this is how an off year looks for him. 

Minor League Thread: Draft Time

Just thought the Therapudians might want someplace to discuss the draft. Sox draft #28, 77, and 107.