Minor League Thread: Josh Reddick vs. Lars Anderson

There seems to be a pretty wide consensus that Lars Anderson is a better prospect than Josh Reddick, but I wonder if it’s time for that to change. Prior to the season, Sickels had Lars as #4 in the Sox system, with a B+, and Reddick as #10, with a B-. BA had them slotted the same. Sox Prospects also had Lars #4, and only recently moved Reddick up to #7.

But let’s take a look at what each of these guys has done. Last year, both played most of the year in Greenville. Here’s how they hit:

Lars in A: .288 .385 .443, 71 BB, 112 K in 458 ABs.
Lars in A+ : .343 .489 .486, 11 BB, 9 K in 35 ABs.
Reddick in A: .306 .352 .531, 26 BB, 51 K in 369 ABs.

Now Reddick’s baseball age is 1 year above Lars’s, but he’s actually only 7 months older. Consider also that Lars is a firstbasemen (considered a good one), but that Reddick is an outfielder with reportedly good range who had 19 (!) assists in 94 games last year. There was a good argument to be made that Reddick was already surpassing Lars after 07.…

Coco off to a monster start!

That headline may sound like a bit of an exaggeration. His gaudy .315 average masks a pretty mediocre .722 OPS (96 OPS+). But as I documented last year around this time, Coco has always been a slow starter. Consider these OPS:

Mar/April 2004: .211 .262 .316
Mar/April 2005: .253 .302 .354
Mar/April 2006: injured
Mar/April 2007: .235 .274 .338
YTD for 2008: .315 .338 .384

If Coco follows his usual pattern of improving greatly as the weather warms up, he’ll have a pretty nice year. If you combine his line thus far in 08 with what he did from May 10 to the end of the season last year, he’d end up around 285/340/395. He seems to have completely lost his power but that’s a very tidy line for a ++ defensive CF.

Farnsworth’s Suspension for Throwing Behind Manny’s Head Reduced from 3 Games to 0*

In a ridiculous decision today, an arbitrator reduced Kyle Farnsworth’s suspension from 3 games to 1 game. This was an idiotic decision on a number of levels:

First off, anyone who pays attention to baseball knows that a 1-game suspension will have almost no effect on a middle reliever. Having a reliever unavailable for one day means that he’ll be more able and ready to pitch the next day. A 3-day suspension is really the minimum suspension that has really works as a punishment for a reliever. Anything shorter is like suspending a starter for the 4 games between his starts.

Second, Farnsworth didn’t just drill someone in the ribs. He threw behind his head, a spot that is universally considered especially dangerous because players tend to back away on inside pitches.

Third, Farnsworth’s (and the Yankees’) defense was apparently that he slipped during his delivery. Looking at the context in which it happened and how it looked on video tape, this is very hard to believe. It is so hard to believe, in fact, that if you take Farnsworth at his word, it is hard to imagine ever suspending anyone for throwing at a batter.

Fourth, IF you do take…

Minor League Thread: Mike Jones

Mike Jones was a draft and follow guy out of Arizona Western JC who the Sox signed in 2005. He has been putting up an unremarkable record for the past few years, while being old for the levels he’s been playing at. He had a nice looking .340 .434 .432 line at Lowell before being promoted. But at age 22, that wasn’t all that great. This year, Jones has started the year on fire, hitting .412/.470/.588 at Greenville. must be a lot of fun to watch.

But still, Jones is a 23-year-old playing in A ball. And he’s a 1B, listed at 6-3, 260. He’s fun but he’s no Jeff Natale. 

That Was Brilliant

Young pitcher has an excellent game through 7, up around 100 pitches. It’s debatable whether you leave him in to start the 8th. But once he puts the tying run on base, you have to pull him. He’s in uncharted territory, pitch-count wise. You’ve got your 2 best relievers warm and ready to go. But Francona wasn’t satisfied until the lead was gone. Even then, Buc stayed in for another batter, just in case his pitch count wasn’t high enough.

An extra-innings game followed by a 1-run game in the 8th and your best two relievers don’t appear in either. As my friend often says, “This is why the Red Sox will never win 100 games under Francona.”

Pitchers Go Down, So Pitchers Come Up

First Beckett went down. Then Dice-K. This has led to starts by David Pauley, then by Lester on 3 days rest. We also got to see a bit of Hansen, who looked reasonably promising.

The good news is that we’ll get to see Justin Masterson’s debut in tomorrow’s game. And Masterson’s certainly made a case for himself at AA: 19 IP, 14 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, and 23 K. Also he’s got a 3.57 GO/AO ratio. Should be fun to see this promising young player join the Sox kiddie corps. 

What to Make of Gammo’s Coco to the Cubs Rumor

According to Gammons on Baseball Tonight last night, the Cubs are interested in acquiring Coco Crisp to play center. He says the deal could get done soon and that it would be for Gallagher + another prospect. Is there any chance that this is legit? Could it bring back golden boy Matt Murton? Is Sox Therapy back?

Preseason Minor League Thread

Hey, how about those minor leagues! They sure are interesting this time of year. What about that guy who got sent down? He should’ve stayed up! And then there was the guy who’s still up--that guy sucks. Send him down!

Consider this the TempleU-requested catch-all minor league thread.

I love that dirty water: 1-0 First place, half a game up.

6-5 win over the A’s in 10 from Tokyo.

Woke up at 5:15. went for a run, showered up and watched the Sox. The only thing that took away from the morning, was that they couldn’t get it done in under 3 hours as I had to head to work.

Game Chat

Number 3 Star:Dice - K: Gutty but ugly performance. We saw the Dice we saw a little too much of last year, a little adversity and he starts to fold. Instead of completely folding he battled, despite not having command or mph’er on his heater. His off-speed stuff really settled in during the 3rd, 4th and 5th. Could have gone to a number of players, but considering the locale of the game I had to give him the edge.

Number 2 Star Brandon Moss: Late injury replacement for J.D. “Nancy” Drew whose back went out, prior to the game. Brandon, trying to carve out a roll for himself showed good plate coverage and took his licks including a the game tying closer off Street in the top of the 9th.

Number 1 Star: Manny - 2 for 4, with four base knocks including the go ahead in the 10th.…

It’s Alright Ma, They Were only Bleeding

I’m skeptical when I hear, after the fact, that a player only struggled because of an undisclosed injury. Players deal with nagging injuries all the time and we never hear about it. But it’s the sort of information that is often used to wipe away an off year. I have to admit that, though, I’ve had quite a different reaction to the news that both Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo have been suffering through serious ailments in their time with the Red Sox. Crisp, among other things, was hindered in his pre-2007 workouts while recovering from his finger surgery and reportedly couldn’t find his swing early last season. Similarly, an offseason parasite problem (yuck) is said to have sapped Lugo of his strength for much of 2007.

If these guys had just had off years, I would probably dismiss this talk as sort of revisionist history. But these two were so brutally bad for such long periods of time that such explanations not only seem plausible, but likely. And if these guys really are healthy (Coco’s already had some injury concerns this year), it makes me pretty optimistic about what 2008 will hold for them. Does this make me the biggest…

Are There Any Real Questions Going into Spring Training?

Well, spring has arrived in the baseball world, with pitchers and catchers reporting for duty. On most teams in most years, this means that at least one or two key positions, a rotation slot or two, and perhaps a few bullpen roles are up for grabs. But the 08 Red Sox are somewhat of an exception. They’ve brought back an almost identical team to last year, a year in which they won the World Series (in case you’ve forgotten). There are no likely changes in the infield. The rotation has a recent opening, but it seems pretty much a lock that Buchholz and Tavarez will fill the spot. It hardly seems like a battle--more like a job-share.

The bullpen seems fairly set as well, although there a few kinks to iron out. Papelbon and Okajima will slot in as the closer/#1 setup tandem. Snyder will mop up and one of Tavarez/Buchholz will serve as an additional long man. A couple of interesting non-prospect arms--like Gronkiewicz, Corey, and Breslow--will try to snag one of the remaining three slots, but they’ll probably be beaten out by everyone’s favorite punching bag, Javier Lopez. The last 2 of those spots go to Delcarmen and Timlin.…

Now That We Know the Price…

Well, we now know what it would have taken to sign Johan Santana: 7/$150 mil. With that in mind, do you think he was worth Ellsbury/Masterson/Lowrie/mystery prospect? I know the rule of thumb is that when there’s a top talent available, you get him. But for me, this was beyond the price I would be willing to pay. I could have stomached a 5-year deal by just assuming that you’d be overpaying for a year of the deal. But for 7 years at premium prices, I think you pass and see what you can do with your youngsters (maybe keep them or deal them for a player who’s locked up cheap a little longer than Johan was). 

Is an Ellsbury/Coco Deal on the Horizon?

With Johan Santana apparently headed for Queens, the Red Sox no longer need to hang on to both Jacoby Elllsbury and Coco Crisp. Does this mean that one of them will soon be on the way out of town? I forget who, but someone keeps mentioning the ChiSox as a possible partner, being as they need a CF and could part with Carlos Quentin. I’m kind of stumped otherwise, although maybe the Dodgers will do something foolish. I do, however, think one of these guys will be on the move before the season starts, as both are at least capable starters and could bring back value in other spots.

Sidenote: The Red Sox picked up David Aardsma from Chicago for Willy Mota and Miguel Socolovich. The Sox didn’t give up much and he had nice K rates in AAA and MLB last year, so it seems pretty reasonable.

Tick, Tick, Tick…

Well, it’s Martin Luther King Day weekend, that time of the offseason when you perk up and say to yourself: “Hey, spring training is coming next month. Have the Red Sox done what they need to do to prepare for next season?” My general sense is that yes, they’ve done fine. They had no gaping holes once they re-signed Lowell and Schilling, and the team projects to be one of the top in the AL. Still, there are a few questions left unanswered:

1. Obviously Johan Santana is still up in the air. It appears unlikely that the Sox will budge from the current offer, but it’s still unclear whether that will be sufficient.

2. The lack closure on Johan has left the Red Sox with one too many starting CFs. They can’t deal either of these guys until they know what’s happening with Santana. And now pretty much everyone who was looking for a CF has got one. Normally, this sort of redundancy isn’t a problem, but the Sox have not shown a good ability to work in a fourth outfielder to get him regular playing time. That would mean wasting Ellsbury or Crisp.

3. Is the bullpen a finished…

In Manny’s Defense

Our old friend SG* over at RLYW kept track of zone rating numbers each day of 2007, providing us with some fascinating information on Manny Ramirez’s defense. If you recall, we left off last time with me claiming that Manny’s defense was so bad that it actually destabilized the Middle East, while others felt that it was a bit closer to average. Here’s what SG found about how Manny played in Fenway vs. on the road:

Stadium G GS Ch INN PO A E DP ZR PM Diff RS RS/162
Road 58 58 112 476 94 1 1 0 .830 93 -5 -4 -13
Home 61 61 136 509 86 7 1 0 .618 84 -31 -25 -72

Those last two columns are RS and RS/162, based on Chris Dial’s method for converting raw ZR into run values. So in 2007, Manny was -13 runs/162 on the road and -72/162 at home. We can see the pretty obvious effect of the weird scoring at Fenway, wherein the ZR guys, for some crazy reason, count balls off the wall as being in a player’s zone. The data above suggests that Manny is a lot closer to the -10 to -15 defender that…

Rethinking the Usage of the Japanese Pitchers

Looking forward to the 2008 season, I am wondering how usage patterns for Hideki Okajima and Daisuke Matsuzaka might change from last year. In 2007, both pitchers were used quite heavily early in the season.

In a recent interview, Okajima even said that there were times when he dreaded getting the call to come into the game because he was so tired. That’s not surprising, given that he threw 62.1 IP before September started, after not topping 56 IP over the previous 5 years in Japan. I’d look for him to get something like the Papelbon treatment in 08.

Dice-K was also worked very hard early in the season before struggling mightily down the stretch. Between May 30 and July 3, he had the following pitch counts: 106, 130, 120, 112, 126, 113, 122. During that time, many here (including me) speculated that the team must have decided that Matsuzaka thrived under heavier workloads. And when that stretch ended Matsuzaka had a 3.53 ERA and was looking great. But for the rest of the season, he put up a 5.50 ERA and had horrible command.

Now it’s always too easy to just look at some high pitch counts and decide that…

A Look Back on JD Drew

Sorry for the lack of entries lately. I’ve been working on some other projects lately, and frankly, there’s just not a whole lot going on with the Red Sox that interests me. No relievers signed, no backup catcher action, no ridding of Tavarez, and no big trade for Johan. To quote Lou Reed, “there’s nothing goin’ on here at all.”

One thing that I find pretty interesting this year is how J.D. Drew turned out to be exactly the opposite of what conventional wisdom said he would be. Remember what Drew was supposed to be according to conventional wisdom* when he came to the Sox? He was going to put up pretty numbers, sure. But he wouldn’t stay healthy enough to be in the lineup, and in the big moment, he was going to wilt on the big Boston stage.

But what actually happened? Drew’s numbers were not pretty at all. His 796 OPS was good for only a 105 OPS+. But Drew’s best hitting, according to his clutch stats on BR, came in tight games. Then there was the postseason, where he drove in 11 runs in 14 games. This included a grand slam that broke open game 6 of…

Minor League Thread: Sickels Likes Sox Prospects, Not Sox Fans

Sickels has put out his top 20 list for the Red Sox. A couple highlights:

1 Clay Buchholz, RHP, Grade A
2 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Grade A-
3 Jed Lowrie, SS, Grade A- (too high? I think he’s an A- as a shortstop, but a B+ as a second baseman. Will he stick at short?)
5 Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B
7 Nick Hagadone, LHP, Grade B
8 Ryan Kalish, OF, Grade B
16 Reid Engel, OF, Grade C+
20 Bubba Bell, OF, Grade C

I’m a little surprised to hear John trash two big segments of his fan base:

I will admit that posting this makes me nervous, as Red Sox fans are increasingly passionate about their farm system. This is a good thing, obviously. . .however some members of Red Sox nation are starting to get obnoxious, acting, I dare say, like Yankees fans. Watch your hubris, guys and gals.

Who’s More Expendable: Lester or Lowrie+Masterson+?

Not much else to talk about here except the possible Johan trade. Consider these possible packages:

Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson/???
Ellsbury/Lester

The first is reportedly Boston’s best offer and the second is what they simply will not do. But I suspect that the Red Sox would be better off parting with the second package. The first package means that the Sox will be sending 2 of Wake/Lester/Buc to the pen, which is really overkill. Meanwhile, they will have no middle-infield depth in the upper minors.

Trading away the 2nd package nicely opens a slot for Johan in the rotation, while retaining their depth at SS/2B. It also means that instead of having an extra SP at the back of the bullpen, they have one developing in AA/AAA, possibly ready to take over for Schilling in 09.

From an overall talent standpoint, the two packages seem reasonably close to each other.

[Note: This is not to say that I think trading either of these for Johan is the right way to go for sure.]

Finally, Something to Obsess Over: The Johan Question

This offseason was shaping up as one of the most relaxing in recent history. The Red Sox were coming off of a World Championship, and unlike 2004, there weren’t a bunch of players ready to depart via free agency. The only loose ends, Curt Schilling and Mike Lowell, were quickly re-signed to reasonable deals, and the team was pretty much ready for another run in 2008. Sure, there was the question of what to do with our extra CF and adding another good arm in the pen would probably be wise, but overall nothing terribly pressing.

There was certainly not anything like the ARod trade that wasn’t, the many Manny trade demands, or the Dice-K drama to worry about… until a few days ago. That’s when adding Johan Santana started to become a real possibility. And here we have it, our first big fat drama of the 2007-2008 offseason.

What should the Red Sox be willing to give up for Santana? Frankly, I can’t figure it out. I can say that 1 year of Johan is probably worth only a couple B prospects. I can also say that getting Johan and having him locked up to a 5-6 year deal at…

Rule 5 and the Red Sox: Bring on the Loadstone

Did you notice that the 2007 Red Sox featured no rule 5 guys on the roster? Didn’t managing the roster just seem a lot easier than in the Stern or Lenny Dinardo days? There are some interesting names our there but I hope the Red Sox don’t waste a roster spot on a guy who cannot contribute to this year’s team. I don’t see them losing anyone as none of their eligible guys seem all that interesting. 

Trade Target Cabrera: How Fat Is Fat?

The Red Sox are among the teams that are at least considering acquiring Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins. The biggest question mark about Cabrera is, of course, his weight. Everyone seems to agree that he can hit and that he’s not a very good fielder at 3B (except Bill Lajoie who thinks he’s good there). His weight, everyone says, is the big problem.

But how big is he? I’ve looked around a little bit to see if I can find a picture of Cabrera that would show him to be really heavy. But so far, I haven’t found any that really look that way to me. Most of them make him look like Kevin Mench or Kevin Youkilis--big burly guys who don’t have the prototypical athletic build. I’ve yet to see one where he looks like Kevin James though.

So what I’m asking is if anyone here has found images of him that show him to be portly. Can anyone provide any links to those? (No linking to random naked fat guys either, darn it!)

Offseason Minor League Thread

Philly has done a very nice review of the Theo-Era Red Sox first three years of drafting over at SOSH:

I put the Sox second partly because they’ve already banked three good seasons and have very good depth. If the Sox drop off from this lofty ranking it will be because their elite talent doesn’t quite match some other teams. Papelbon is great in his role, but it’s not unreasonable to question whether a 60 IP/year pitcher can be a “real” star. Buchholz has the requisite talent to be a star, but banking on 1200 IP over the next six years is a risky proposition. Where the Sox excel is in the depth of prospects brought into the system over these three years. There are a lot of organizations that struggle to come up with three good prospects and the Sox have a couple potential Top 100 types stacked up in the 5th and 6th spots.

A fun and interesting read during the hot stove season. 

ARod to the Yanks: Not a Good Day for Sox Fans

I have to say that I am totally stunned that ARod has decided to go crawling back to the Yankees. I really thought that he would have been turned off by being booed and blamed despite playing at an all-time great level. But in the end, that seems to be what he did (although for someone crawling back he somehow managed to get a big boost to his contract). Is it about money--was no one else willing to pay that much? Is it about his family wanting to stay in NY and the Mets not making a legit offer? I don’t know.

What I do know is that this turn of events really changed the dynamic between the Red Sox and Yankees. When it looked like the Yankees were finally going to follow through on one of their ARod threats, things were looking a lot better for Boston. They could sign Lowell and force the Yankees to pay through the nose in a trade for a 3B. Or the Yankees could overpay to take Lowell away and the Red Sox could take a crack at signing ARod. But the Yankees’ threat was again hollow and they’ve got their superstar back in…

Lessons Learned: Why the Red Sox Will not Give Up on Lugo

If you could have changed anything about the Red Sox in 2007, it probably would be to go with a different shortstop than Julio Lugo, right? Sure, JD Drew was a disappointment, but in the end he put up an OPS of ~800, so he wasn’t THAT bad. And yes, Pineiro and Wily Mo flopped (although neither was given much of a chance), but those guys were cheap and playing small parts. Lugo was basically a replacement-level player who is signed for 4-5 years and placed at the top of the lineup. With that in mind, we might guess that the Red Sox are viewing his signing as a mistake and looking to unload him. But I think that a look at their recent past has probably convinced them that they should not do this. There are two examples that jump out to prove this point.

The first is Edgar Renteria. Renteria came to the Sox in 2005 on a 4 year/$39M deal with a bit stronger resume than Lugo’s. His ZIPS projection was .324 .385 .467, but he barely managed a .700 OPS. It’s hard to characterize the dumping of him (while paying a chunk of his contract) as anything…

That Other Big Question: Coco to Go?

By a show of hands, who didn’t fall in love with Jacoby Ellsbury during his brief times in the Major Leagues? Okay, yes ladies, calm down, that’s not exactly what I meant. Settle down, now. Please stop throwing your undergarments! And do I see any hands raised? Just one, who is that? Some guy wearing a “Duquette Rules, bring back Darren Lewis T-shirt”? Magnus, quit goofing around!

The emergence of Ellsbury puts the Red Sox in the rather nice position of having an extra starting-quality CF. And it certainly helps that there are several teams who are looking for a cost-efficient CF. The questions are, should the Red Sox deal from their depth and if so, who should go?

I like the idea of trading away one of these guys, particularly Crisp. I would not, however, deal him just for the sake of being rid of his contract. With the health records of Manny Ramirez and JD Drew, Crisp would be an expensive but worthy insurance policy. He should only be dealt if he can bring back real value. What would that be? Some possibilities: a good catching prospect in the high minors, a good young starter, an ace reliever who…

Terry Francona: Postseason Genius?

Terry Francona’s contract is up at the end of 2008, meaning he is likely to get an extension this offseason. His credentials are pretty impressive and he looks like he is headed for a big payday. Consider:

--He’s won 2 World Series in 4 years.
--He’s led the Sox to their first sole division title in a decade (and another one that they shared)
--His teams are 22-9 in the postseason.

It’s that last number that I want to look at. It seems that whatever else people think about Terry Francona, they consider him a great postseason manager. Do you think this reputation is deserved? What are the cases for and against it?

(I was initially going to list my opinion here but thought I’d leave it up to the group for now.)

Minor League Thread: Red Sox Minor League FAs

According to BA, here are the Red Sox minor league FAs:

Boston Red Sox (18)
Righthanders: Carlos Almanzar, John Barnes, Mike Burns, Felix Diaz, Jeff Farnsworth, Travis Hughes, T.J. Nall
Lefthander: Adam Cox
Catcher: Salvador Paniagua
First baseman: Jeff Bailey
Second basemen: Joe McEwing, Bobby Scales, Junior Spivey
Shortstops: Tony Granadillo, Ed Rogers
Outfielders: Brad Correll, Steve Garrabrants, Cory Keylor

Do any of these names jump out at anyone? 

Elias Rankings of Sox Players

Completing cribbing this from Temple over at SOSH:

AL Elias Rankings from USA Today

Type A: Schilling, Lowell

Type B: Gagne, Timlin, Wake

Yep, Gagne is Type B. No two picks for him, just one supplemental. The trade was a disaster in soooo many ways.

The good news is that another team wouldn’t have to worry about giving up a #1 pick to sign him.

Sidenote: Highest ranking went to Ortiz: 100.00. 

The Big Question: Lowell--How much for how long?

So… the offseason is upon us and there’s no point in wasting time. What do you think Mike Lowell is worth? What do you think he will cost? Would you lock him up before he hits free agency?

If the Red Sox left it up to me (and I haven’t heard that they are going to), I’d sign Lowell before free agency. Remember, there’s another team in our division that desperately needs a starting 3B. It might feel good to go out and get ARod and feel like you took him away from the Yankees, but it would be a hollow victory. All appearances point to ARod being gone from the Yankees. If the Red Sox don’t get him, he’s headed to the Angels or Dodgers or Tigers, etc, so you’re not really stealing him from New York.

Lowell, on the other hand, is available to the Yankees. Signing Lowell adds value to the Red Sox while keeping it from the Yankees. The question becomes what you’re willing to pay for Lowell. And that’s a tough one. Lowell had WARP1s of 6.3 and 7.0 in the past two years, which according to MORP, would be worth $19M to $22M each year.…