I TOLD YOU WE NEEDED THE OFFICIAL PANIC BUTTON OMFG THREAD

Calm down. You still have a freaking SEVEN GAME LEAD.

This is a trap. You will not lull me into a false sense of security. You've been saying "X game lead" for 2 months now, and X has been getting smaller and smaller.

If the lead gets to 5, or below 5 in the loss column... then you can panic. Right now, you've still got a buffer, and the Yankees still have a lot more problems than Boston.

If the lead gets to 5, or below 5 in the loss column... then you can panic.

You've basically won that Baltimore game, so it's 6.5

Yankees still have a lot more problems than Boston.


Like what? Giambi healing and ready to come back soon? Johnny Damon's back looking better? The back end of the pen getting its act together? The starters going deeper into games? Bobby Abreu and Robinson cano hitting the ball again? Scott Procter's arm refusing to fall off? Andy Phillips looking like a MLB player? better defense than people are expecting from the Yankees? Jeter/Posada/A-Rod hitting the shiite out of the ball? The upcoming easy schedule?

Please.

Not saying abandon ship yet, but it woudl be prudent to check on the condition of the lifeboats

I don't really expect Giambi to be back and effective anytime soon. Damon's still hitting and fielding like crap. Abreu got 2 hits... after an 0-15 slide. And the bullpen is shot.

I hear that the Red Sox have a few good prospects, and that the White Sox are selling starters. Just putting that out there.

The Red Sox could acquire Javier Vazquez. He's got a 3.77 ERA, a 114/22 K/BB ratio in 122 innings, and he's never injured. He's signed for three years at 34 million beyond this year.

I bet, for the right offer, that the White Sox would trade Jenks as well. White Sox fans--as well as the organization--know that the team absolutely needs impact young position players in order to compete in 2009 and beyond.

And consider this: Every game the White Sox win means it's less likely that whoever wins the East, be it the Yankees or the Red Sox, will see Johan Santana in the playoffs. That's gotta be worth something, right?

Wakefield sure hasn't been any good lately.

Wakefield sure hasn't been any good lately.

He has been god awful, and it feels like we are too scared to say anything. There is gonna come a time, when they are going to have to make a decision regarding Wake.

For starters, we have to play Mirrabelli every time Wake starts. Is this worth the risk that we are putting ourselves at with the stupid ####### knuclker dancing all around the plate in the first place? He is awfull!! Put him on a police escort OUT of Boston

While I don't think he is a choker, I think he does fairly well suck. Schilling returning soon will help.

Sorry if I am going over the top but this team has been in a funk for two long, with too many close losses to sit back and say "She'll be right, mate"

As I type this, I see that Drew has sucked in right field per mgl's uzr stats. Great, all great news comes in 3.

I'm off to organise a wine tasting and am probably gonna drink the lot.

Here are all the World Series winners since 1980 who have had 43-game stretches (ah, a nice round number) in which they were 20-23 (or worse):

2006 Cardinals (18-25)
2005 White Sox (20-23)
2004 Red Sox (20-23)
2003 Marlins (17-26)
2001 Diamondbacks (20-23)
2000 Yankees (16-27)
1996 Yankees (18-25)
1992 Blue Jays (19-24)
1991 Twins (20-23)
1990 Reds (19-24)
1987 Twins (19-24)
1985 Royals (19-24)
1983 Orioles (20-23)
1982 Cardinals (20-23)
1980 Phillies (20-23)

(not the 2002 Angels, 1999 Yankees, 1998 Yankees, 1997 Marlins, 1995 Braves, 1993 Blue Jays, 1989 A's, 1988 Dodgers, 1986 Mets, 1984 Tigers, or 1981 Dodgers, unless I missed one accidentally).

In other words, more than half the World Series winners since 1980 have had 20-23 stretches (or worse). Would you rather the Sox have played better during this time? Sure. But playing sub-.500 for 43 games does not preclude their winning the World Series. It just means they're hitting a rough patch. Might they never rebound? Sure, but there's no reason to think they can't.

I really don't see how anyone can look at this 20-23 (multiple endpoints are fun) streak and see anything but a very good team getting pretty unlucky

It's not Tim Wakefield's fault that Doug Mirabelli sucks. Tim Wakefield is not the problem. He's a 5th starter. He's better than Tavarez. He's expected to give up 4 runs in 6 innings, it's not a big deal. He never gets hurt. He doesn't whine to the media. For 4 million dollars it's not a burden. It's better to send Wakefield out every 5 days then to Rush Jon Lester before his arm strength is built up again, or send Bucholtz before he's seen AAA bats, or a lot of other things.

If we found a new catcher that's 5 VORP, it's one and a half wins over Mirabelli. Why don't we do THIS instead?

Wakefield could probably pitch until his late 40's. Hopefully we won't need him by then. If we can get a real backup catcher instead of Mirabelli, I'd like to see him finish the year, pitch next year, and then retire then.

stupid ####### knuclker dancing all around the plate in the first place?

The knuckleball is something that i consider a religious exercise. It's a test of our faith in God. Sometimes you just gotta let go, have faith, and let fate playout.

The Red Sox could acquire Javier Vazquez. He's got a 3.77 ERA, a 114/22 K/BB ratio in 122 innings, and he's never injured. He's signed for three years at 34 million beyond this year.

i'd rather not take on any more long-term money at this point (unless it's for Texieira), so we can make a legitimate Johan Santana run in 2008

The knuckleball is something that i consider a religious exercise. It's a test of our faith in God. Sometimes you just gotta let go, have faith, and let fate playout.

Who is this person that has inhabited Wok's body?

:)

I feel better after posts 10-12.

Thanks guys

Who is this person that has inhabited Wok's body?

I don't complain about the knuckleball, because it's a knuckleball. I can't control where teh wind blows the ball. Nobody can, so I don't get worked up about it. What I get worked up about is stupid decisions made by human beings that cna be avoided entirely, like not getting platoon matchups right, having Papi hit an extra time up 7 runs instead of getting him some rest, Erik Hinske starting against a lefty, Julio Lugo pinch running and then getting busted stealing 3rd down one run, things like that, I go ape. A knuckleball not moving because there wasn't one particular breeze? Not going to get worked up about it.

Have you ever noticed when fans of teams you don't cheer for on the intarwebs go "MY TEAM IS SO GOOD HAHAH SUCK IT AMERICA #### YEAH COUNT THE RINGZ #####" their teams never seem to blow any sort of lead nor #### up. When the Red Sox have any sort of early success, even if we don't brag, we're still destined for some kind of failure/bad luck/screw job.

I don't know, maybe I'm just used to being bullied. I'm receiving taunts from moron Yankee fans here. They've been taunting since they were down 12 games!!! If we did any sort of taunting, The Boston Police would probably bust Manny for running Meth next week, and we'd never win another game this season.

Not going to get worked up about it.

The thing is, I hate the knuckleball. I hate it's unpredictability, always have. Check chatters in 2004, when I used to compare watching a Wakefelid start to opening a box of chocolate and not knowing what we were gonna get next...

If we had Lester and Tavarez in the rotation ahead of Wake I probably wouldn't care. That's just me and probably tfbg9 as well.

The thing is, we get worked up about different things.

I am as angry as anyone right now, and in some areas quite irrational. I'm aware that my rants will piss a few people off, what can I say? We should be more infront and are not!!

What is giving me the shits also is that the Yankees are firming as favorites for the Wild Card in my opinion now, and are a real threat in the playoffs. Great!!

Have you ever noticed when fans of teams you don't cheer for on the intarwebs go "MY TEAM IS SO GOOD HAHAH SUCK IT AMERICA #### YEAH COUNT THE RINGZ #####" their teams never seem to blow any sort of lead nor #### up. When the Red Sox have any sort of early success, even if we don't brag, we're still destined for some kind of failure/bad luck/screw job.

The Yankee fans I know in real person and here don't give me crap no matter what, so I can't help there. But there are a lot of ######## on the planet, I know that...

(I think I could be one, right now)

But there are a lot of ######## on the planet, I know that...


West Ham hahaha

Beckett, DiceK, Oswalt, Schilling, Gabbard. That's a pretty good rotation going into the playoffs. Wakefield can retire now, and take Mirabelli with him. Then, the can get a decent back-up catcher from somewhere (Nady? Buck?), and then we're getting somewhere!!

Wok, you seem to have a residual angst problem. You really need to go watch 2004 season highlights. (Repeat as required.)

As for your Yankees fans problem: they taunt you because you let them. Ask them which team is up 7 games and which team is 7 games back. Also ask them to remind you about the last year the Yankees won a World Series. Then chuckle.

Also, get a paper bag and breathe into it for about 20 minutes.

Beckett, DiceK, Oswalt, Schilling, Gabbard.

One of these is not like the other. He has a NTC.

Then, the can get a decent back-up catcher from somewhere (Nady? Buck?

Brian Schnedier dammit. He's not a great hitter, but he's better than Doug, the Nationals are a mess, and he's a defenive wizard.

As for your Yankees fans problem: they taunt you because you let them. Ask them which team is up 7 games and which team is 7 games back. Also ask them to remind you about the last year the Yankees won a World Series. Then chuckle.


It's more of a numbers problems - it's not so much as a few fans, but an irrational mob powered by ignorance and irrational Nationalism.

Also, get a paper bag and breathe into it for about 20 minutes.

My breathing is fine, I have a BP problem though.

Funny, I tried to tell people a month ago that the playoffs were far from a sure thing and most people would have none of it.

Funny, I tried to tell people a month ago that the playoffs were far from a sure thing and most people would have none of it.

I'm relatively sure I was on your side.

It does seem that the Sox have about the same record every year around the break and more often than not wilt away in the dog days of July/August. (Even the 2004 team didn't look so hot in July.)

The only difference is that this year no one else has caught fire and the Yankees are still barely over .500.

I mean we should have held serve during the past couple weeks; dropping 2 of 3 to KC at home is not acceptable for an alleged playoff team, and you really should do better than home splits in 4-game sets with Toronto and especially Texas.

Fortunately there's a lot of Baltimore and Tampa left on the schedule...

Losing two of three to KC at home never makes one feel great about their team. Our starting pitching will improve over its recent crappiness however, and that should be enough to get back that winning feeling. I just hope it happens before the Yankees get much closer.

It's a little weird how you can replace a couple numbers and proper nouns in that article and it will exactly describe the Mets.

That 43 game stretch:


Runs Hits HR BB
---------------------
Sox 193 406 41 172

Opp 184 386 39 124

The Sox, for various reasons, have not been able to take advantage of 70 more people on base than their opponents.

Losing two of three to KC at home never makes one feel great about their team.

To be fair, this isn't the KC that we used to think of as KC. They've got 4 great young players in Butler, Gordon, Teahen, and Buck.

Is there any evidence that Wakefield is more unpredictable (I suppose this really means more inconsistent) than other pitchers? I see this bandied about as gospel, and I just don't see it, either from inning to inning or game to game. I think it's a carry over from the (correct) perception of the knuckleball itself as unpredictable, but I don't think it should properly carry over on the higher game, or season level.

Is there any evidence that Wakefield is more unpredictable

I think that BPro calls this flakiness. THey used to include it in their support neutral stats, but I'm not sure if they still do.

I agree with Wok and I say that K.C. is the new Detroit. They'll be in the playoffs in a few years and they won't trade a cheap and good up-the-middle player like Buck. He's also too good to be a back-up catcher.

I also agree that Brian Schneider would be loverly as a back-up. IIRC, he was the Sox's back-up plan in 2004 before they re-signed Tek. Is my memory fooling me?

I don't agree with Wok about Vazquez. I think he'd be a fantastic addition and I wouldn't call his 3/34 contract "long-term money." That's pretty damn reasonable for a pitcher of his caliber.

I don't agree with Wok about Vazquez. I think he'd be a fantastic addition and I wouldn't call his 3/34 contract "long-term money." That's pretty damn reasonable for a pitcher of his caliber.

Javier Vazquez has been consistently inconsistent ever since coming to the AL. If we're going to pick up another starter... ugh, i just wouldn't (unless it's Oswalt, but then he'd cost multiple limbs). I'd rather give Curt another 1 year deal (if he comes back OK). And then Bucholtz takes a rotation spot after 2008, and hopefully a push for Santana.

I also agree that Brian Schneider would be loverly as a back-up. IIRC, he was the Sox's back-up plan in 2004 before they re-signed Tek. Is my memory fooling me?


He's only good for a .300-.320 OBP with not a lot of power, but that's better than Doug, and he's GREAT defensively. If there's one guy I'd hope to be able to catch Wakefield, it's this guy.

Larry (or other Yankees fans): At what point do the Yankees conclude Damon needs to sit, maybe for a while, and that they'd be better off with Melky in CF permanently, and maybe Thompson in RF, and Abreu at DH?

He's only good for a .300-.320 OBP with not a lot of power, but that's better than Doug, and he's GREAT defensively. If there's one guy I'd hope to be able to catch Wakefield, it's this guy.

.300-.320 is cool with me, actually, when you consider the MLB average catcher is .269/.329 /.416. You're right about the power but I wonder how much of that is his home park. His slugging was .400 in Montreal, which I believe was more of a neutral park. Has anyone seen him hit and if so, does he seem the type that could rack up a few doubles off the wall in Fenway?

I thought at the time that the the 1-7 trip through Bal, SF and Col ended any realistic shot the Yankees had at catching Cle, Det or Bos, and I still think so. Sea and Min are both ahead of the Yankees as well. If the Yankees had just gone 4-4 on the trip, well we can all see where they would be. As it stands now, I think it is going to take another long winning streak, like adding about 5 more to the little four-game streak now, and 2 of those 4 teams really going cold.

I agree with Wok and I say that K.C. is the new Detroit. They'll be in the playoffs in a few years and they won't trade a cheap and good up-the-middle player like Buck. He's also too good to be a back-up catcher.

Except that they don't have anyone remotely comprable to Bonderman or Verlander, not that you could tell that from how badly Sox offense sputtered against their staff this series.

Except that they don't have anyone remotely comprable to Bonderman or Verlander,

There's Greinke and Luke Hovacher. While I agree that both are big ifs, if both can be above-average starters along with Meche's averageness, that's a decent 1-2-3 rotation to compliment Gordon, Butler, DeJesus, Teahan and Buck. They're not Bonderman or Verlander but I'd certainly say they're remotely comprable.

If I were a Royals fan, I'd be pretty optimistic about the next few years.

I like Tony Pena too. He's not great offensively, but he's fantastic defensively. Could be the next HIspanic Adam Everett

I'm not too concerned about Wakefield. He's healthy, he doesn't rely on "stuff" that could abandon him, and I don't think it's likely that the league has somehow figured him out after thirteen years. He'll give the Sox 200 innings of 100 ERA+, just like everyone expected him to. If that's a fifth starter, that's a damn fine fifth starter.

Julian Tavarez, on the other hand, is not a fifth starter. He is a relief pitcher. Once Schilling is back, Tavarez really needs to go to the bullpen and Pineiro traded or (more likely) DFA'd.

Could be the next HIspanic Adam Everett

Who was the first?

Who was the first?

Adán Everito!

Oh God Kevin Millar re-acquisition rumours :suicide:

The Sox, for various reasons, have not been able to take advantage of 70 more people on base than their opponents.

I think it was Remy last night who mentioned that the Sox are batting .238 with RISP since June 1.

Larry (or other Yankees fans): At what point do the Yankees conclude Damon needs to sit, maybe for a while, and that they'd be better off with Melky in CF permanently, and maybe Thompson in RF, and Abreu at DH?

It's been obvious for at least a month that Damon needs two weeks on the DL. Larry may have more insight than me, but I have to think that it will take another two or three weeks of Damon hitting .184 (his average for the last 28 days) for Torre to figure out that putting Damon in the DH/LF spot every day isn't doing Damon or the team any good. I don't even know why Torre is loyal to Damon, or thinks Damon will work his way out of a "slump" that has only lasted since April 20. But Damon has not looked any better in recent weeks.

Damon has only played CF four times since the start of June, so I think it's fair to assume that Melky already is the regular CF, although no "announcement" of such will ever be forthcoming. But this still leaves Damon and his .665 OPS playing DH or LF (and the occasional CF), and usually leading off. Take heart, as this remains one of the weak points of the Yankees.

The Sox are ruining my week at the beach. I pounded two and a half bottles of merlot last night after the latest one run rib kick.

Wake's not the 5th starter, he's the 4th.

We need a big bat, if you ask me, more than we need another arm.

Posts #10 and 23 helped me feel a little less queasy...and may I remind you all that the 2004 WS Champs went ~.500 for one half of the entire season. Look it up.

Thanks, Loren. They've got to make a move on Damon. Not only is he at LF/DH, he leads off. It's seems like a pretty fixable problem to me. Give Damon 2 weeks, and pop Thompson into the OF mix or Shelly Duncan in at DH.

As for your Yankees fans problem: they taunt you because you let them. Ask them which team is up 7 games and which team is 7 games back. Also ask them to remind you about the last year the Yankees won a World Series. Then chuckle.

My dentist tried that with me this morning, and I said, "Oh, celebrating the Yankees, eh? They must be in first place, then." Shut him up.

And, yes, he had a drill in his hand at the time.

The Sox are ruining my week at the beach. I pounded two and a half bottles of merlot last night after the latest one run rib kick.

Have a bottle for me tonight , if we lose again.

I'm beginning to develop an irrational hate for this team. As they sit here one out away from losing again to a losing team from the Central, with 9 men left on base or whatever it was, it's just the most frustrating team to watch since the 2002 squad, in my eyes.

Another fun game. The team smashed ball after ball directly at people and still got a ton of hits, but didn't get them at the right time. 20-24 now. Logic would say that their luck will turn around any time now, but it just never seems to happen. Manny's smash to the triangle was the topper for me tonight.

I would very much like to see a change in the batting order so that Youkilis and his complete lack of power are not in the 5-hole. Put him in the 2-hole and see if he can do what he was doing earlier this year. But that's really grasping at straws--this is just so incredibly painful to watch.

Does anybody know where we can procure hemlock?

Manny's smash to the triangle was the topper for me tonight.

Me too, the rest of the game was a blur for me. I didn't waste my time watching the 9th.

Manny's smash to the triangle was the topper for me tonight.

For me, it was the back-to-back of Manny's smash to the triangle and A.J. just getting a glove on the pitch at Youks' head that would have otherwise scored Pedroia. The ensuing K was a formality at that point.

For me, it was the back-to-back of Manny's smash to the triangle and A.J. just getting a glove on the pitch at Youks' head that would have otherwise scored Pedroia. The [s]ensuing K[/s] rest of the game was a formality at that point.

Bah, damned strike tag not working, was supposed to be edited for truth. I also forgot the edit function doesn't apply in ST. Oh well.

analysis: an attmept to create a 'luck-free' or DIPS-oriented view of the AL. Stats as of this morning.

Take each team's HR vs HR allowed, KO for pitchers vs batters, and balls in play difference. Turn each into predicted delta runs (and then wins).

dhr = red sox have hit 18 home runs more than they have allowed
dbb = 110 more walks
dh= delta hits. Based on offfense balls in play (AB - KO - HR) minus defense balls in play (IP*2.84 + HA - KO - HR), times .30 (avg hits per ball in play)
dwins = from linear weights, hr = 1.6 of one win, bb = .035, hit = .06. your mileage may vary.
'luck' = actual wins minus losses minus dwins*2 (since each dwin means one more win AND one fewer loss). Of course 'luck' could also be defense, speed, clutch hitting, great bullpen, balls caught deep in the triangle :) etc

sorted by highest to lowest dwins

tm dhr dbb dh dwins luck
bos 18 110 .34 8.8 .-0.1
oak 24 .61 -18 4.9 -14.8
cle. 18 113 -45 4.1 ..8.8
det 13 -19 .27 .3.1 14.8
nyy 15 .24 .-8 .2.7 .-2.4
tor ..6 .15 .10 .2.1 .-7.2
sea 13 -67 .29 .1.5 .11.0
min -34 60 .64 .0.5 ..2.0
bal -11 -82 .73 -0.3 -10.4
chi .13 .24 -56 -0.5 .-7.0
laa -29 -11 .71 -0.8 .19.6
tex .12 -84 -59 -4.6 .-4.6
t b -17 -34 -47 -6.7 .-6.6
k c -35 -46 -31 -9.1 -3.8

The Angels have been generating more runs by magic it seems
The Tigers have been generating more HITS by ball in play by magic it seems
The A's, meanwhile, just can't win close games

Red Sox overall 'deserve' approx the 6 game lead they have.

Chin up, Red Sox Nation. At least your color Sox aren't the color of my Sox, which is all leaing me very blue. Think how many bottles of merlot you'd have to chug at the beach if you had the White Sox' bullpen!! And, you're in a much better position for 2008-forseeable future than my Pale Hose are. Here's hoping you hold off New York and those b@sta s; finally miss the playoffs.

Comment on earlier Javier Vazquez to Red Sox idea: I think Kenny Williams (our GM) has a mancrush on the guy. So, unless there is a big return (which Boston would rightly not do) in it, I don't see him being moved.

The angst being displayed by Hub fans is really pretty retro. The Sox haven't been playing well - although today's outburst was very welcome - but their BP playoff probability is better than it was a month ago.

I was glad to see Youkilis have a good game tonight. Anyway, stop the hand-wringing. This is a talented team. They'll be fine.

I think Moss and Gabbard are looking good to Kenny about now.

The angst being displayed by Hub fans is really pretty retro. The Sox haven't been playing well - although today's outburst was very welcome - but their BP playoff probability is better than it was a month ago.

It's not.

I was glad to see Youkilis have a good game tonight. Anyway, stop the hand-wringing. This is a talented team. They'll be fine.

He said after the team won two blowouts.

I want to point out that I have always believed and continue to believe that we're basically a lock for the division.

since biff was born, he has believed that the 2007 red sox are (basically) a lock for hte division.

Damn straight.

I agree with Jolin.