A Closer Look
How many threads have there been on here about the closer situation? A lot, but that won’t stop me from posting one more. There are a couple of interesting developments on this front, but it’s still a mystery who will be closing out games for the Sox this year.
Interestingly, this Projo article by McAdam says Timlin “had been hand-picked to start the season as the team’s closer.” But it says it in a matter-of-fact way, as if this were common knowledge. There is no quote from anyone on the team, named or otherwise, stating that that was the plan. Where did McAdam get this idea? He doesn’t say. He also says that “Though the Sox have yet to declare their selection publicly, it’s known that Julian Tavarez is the clear favorite.” Again, no source is given and the quote from Tito doesn’t indicate that he’s thinking of Tavarez that way. (Quite the contrary, IMHO.)
This Bradford piece gets the opinions of a few scouts. Unshockingly, they seem to think Papelbon was a good closer. Pretty much, they say it’s up in the air, and Bradford provides a rundown of the candidates.
Lastly, Horrigan in the Herald says that Tavarez is the man as well. Again, there are quotes from Tito about Tavarez in general, but there’s no source at all for his opinion that Tavarez is the closer.
All of this baffles me. The Sox committed $4 mil. to Pineiro and gave him incentives for finishing games. He had one bad outing this spring and has gone 7 scoreless innings since. In his most recent appearance, he closed out a 1 run game for the save. And despite all this, the general consensus--one arrived at with no direct confirmation--is that Tavarez is going to be the closer.
To me, it’s Pineiro’s job to lose, but I wonder if the writers know something we don’t.
Darren
Posted: March 21, 2007 at 06:52 PM |
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I saw a little bit of Matsuzaka today, real-time for the first time in the ESPN game. Once the ball is on its way to the plate, ignoring the mechanics and wind-up, I mean just focusing on what the baseball actually does after it leaves his hand, he reminds me of Mussina circa 1998. 93 on the fastball, with an array of other stuff that makes me hopeful as hell. He looked pretty good.
How hard does Cory throw? Anybody seen him pitch yet?
From what I read in Dollar Sign on the Muscle, I thought that emotional control was more important for starters than relievers. Dave Ritterpusch of the Orioles studied how pitchers scored on the Athletic Motivational Index. While high scores for agressiveness was almost a prerequiste for success as a pitcher, only starters needed high scores for emotional control. Now, a) the book is almost a quarter of a century old and reliever roles have changed in the interim, and b) the AMI might be quackery.
Maybe someone should ask Bob Tewksbury about this stuff. He's Boston's in-house sports psychology guy, no?
Well, he lost that fight with the dugout phone during the 2004 playoffs, and that wasn't nearly as long ago...
If Boston's first two options fail, the price for anyone capable would probably be pretty high.
As am I; Delcarmen, however, I have hopes for. There are things he needs to improve on, chief among them preventing inherited runners from scoring. However, if his ability to not give up home runs is real and repeatable and he can maintain a ~3:1 K/BB, he could be pretty damn good.
They're saying on ESPN now that the announcement will say that Papelbon is going to be the closer again this season.
They're saying on ESPN now that the announcement will say that Papelbon is going to be the closer again this season.
Word from?
djy04
"This wasn’t done because we have ‘too much starting pitching’, or because anyone was panicked about who would do what in the pen, it was done because John has worked his ass off to be where he needs to be, to close in the big leagues again. His shoulder feels great, which is priority number one, and him closing for us makes this staff look entirely different for the long haul. Whoever ends up in the 5th spot will be just fine. Julian can do it, Kyle can certainly do it and Johnny is not far from being ready to do it, so there are many options, even though you hope you don’t have to exhaust them all to find the right fit (which I don’t think will be the case)."
Also, the Tavarez-to-the-rotation thing has been reported (as a rumor) by Rob Bradford:
"Rumors are circulating throughout Fort Myers and Clearwater that the Red Sox are ready to make Jonathan Papelbon the closer and put Julian Tavarez in the starting rotation."
Why did Pap throw 3 IP today, after they'd decided to make him the closer? Does this indicate a plan to use him for longer outings? I would love to see them get something like 60 appearances/100 IP out of him. It might also allow him to have a bit more of a regular schedule.
One very nice side effect of all this is that the #5 slot in the rotation will be open for Clemens in a couple months. No one will be mad that he's replacing Tavarez.
I have to admit to being a little skeptical, after all that blather about the rotation being the place for Papelbon's shoulder, and the risk of closing being too great. I also, as noted many times, believe quite strongly that Papelbon is ready to be one of the best starters in the league, and I really wanted to see that happen. But who knows.
If Papelbon gets hurt, the Sox are going to look dumb, and rightly so. I'm confident that Li'l Papi will be really excellent in the pen, though, so it's nice to have that.
To make a larger point, this is what a local sports media should do. I think much local media criticism can come off as if fans just want a docile fanboy press, and that's not the case - we want to learn more about actual baseball, and the actual process of making a baseball team. Here's a situation where a reporter can make trouble, and by so doing, add to our understanding of the way this Sox team is run. It's just that usually when reporters make trouble, it's to advance a meaningless grudge against an individual player that is at best tangentially related to the actual game of baseball.
Bradford's blog, I should note, is one of the best sports blogs on the web. Highly recommended, if you aren't checking it out already.
don't you think his fastball is a little too straight to be a starter?
When I think about Tavarez as the 5th starter in games that are meaningful, unlike last year, part of me thinks "Bob Stanley, 1987".
1. They really planned to use him as a starter, but because he came into camp with his shoulder in excellent condition they were open to making the switch. (Note how many starts he made in spring training.) Still, they wanted some time to see how he pitched with the new shoulder. After seeing good results - and after seeing neither a lights-out replacement step forward nor a good trade opportunity to pick up the same - they made the switch.
2. They've been planning to use him as a closer all along, but in order to beef up the rest of the pen they wanted to make it appear to free agents that they'd have a shot at closing. With that, they could attract some potentially better candidates who might not have come for a setup position. They could even make the contracts somewhat affordable, with "games finished" bonus clauses that won't mean jack.
Really I think the former is closer to the truth.
Still, I don't think that's what happened.
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