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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox
Friday, December 28, 2007
A Look Back on JD Drew
Sorry for the lack of entries lately. I’ve been working on some other projects lately, and frankly, there’s just not a whole lot going on with the Red Sox that interests me. No relievers signed, no backup catcher action, no ridding of Tavarez, and no big trade for Johan. To quote Lou Reed, “there’s nothing goin’ on here at all.”
One thing that I find pretty interesting this year is how J.D. Drew turned out to be exactly the opposite of what conventional wisdom said he would be. Remember what Drew was supposed to be according to conventional wisdom* when he came to the Sox? He was going to put up pretty numbers, sure. But he wouldn’t stay healthy enough to be in the lineup, and in the big moment, he was going to wilt on the big Boston stage.
But what actually happened? Drew’s numbers were not pretty at all. His 796 OPS was good for only a 105 OPS+. But Drew’s best hitting, according to his clutch stats on BR, came in tight games. Then there was the postseason, where he drove in 11 runs in 14 games. This included a grand slam that broke open game 6 of the ALCS.
What’s the moral of this story? I guess it’s that conventional wisdom is always wrong about everything. Or something like that. Happy New Year everyone.
* Standing in stark contrast to the conventional wisdom were both ZIPS and Pecota, which had Drew pegged for a big drop off at the plate.
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from drew's fenway hit chart, it looks like he's trying to go the other way for doubles off the wall. he hit doubles well to the opposite field at dodger stadium in 2006, which may be why people thought he would be good in fenway. it looks like the problem lies in pulling the ball. he's not successful at it in fenway. to contrast him with ortiz, most of ortiz's homers are pulled to right, while his doubles are off the wall. drew may be trying to go too much the other way at fenway and it's hurting his power numbers.
I'd like to see a little more power (or more *consistent* power?) from Drew. I guess he was playing through a variety of injuries last year, but that is small consolation unless he can avoid them in the future.
Any thoughts on his defense? His Zone Rating looked pretty awful, but Dan Fox' new system still shows him as a plus defender. Not much of an arm, both otherwise decent.
the 2007 park factor for fenway is 111 for hitters. the home run park factor for fenway shows it to be one of the hardest parks to hit homers in (with no wind and an average temperature of 69.4). but still, darren said "pretty numbers" and i would think with a park factor like that, we'd expect an overall inflation of hitting numbers from drew. i'm still convinced that not pulling the ball has something to do with it.
on defense: as i said in my posting above, chone has him at +1 which is OK but not great. one comp from that list for drew is magglio ordonez.
something that makes me happy: coco is our best defender on the list, and is ranked with grady sizemore.
What led you to this conclusion? Based on my observations, I'm on the other side of the fence (I think Drew's arm is, at the least, slightly above average), so I'm interested to hear your thoughts.
I remember one or two incredible throws from RF that didn't even bounce to Varitek (IIRC he cut someone down at the plate). But in Fenway's RF and RCF it's so deep that there seems to be very little chance to keep runners in check. From the depths of the OF nobody is going to throw anyone out at 3B/HP. (Heck, Lugo has to go out to where Manny plays just to take the cut off throw.)
I thought Drew's defense looked pretty good, with the caveat that he never, ever dove for a ball. He might have extended his range and fielding ratings a bit by taking chances on those balls, but it makes sense for someone with his injury history to follow the Bill James/Otis Nixon approach to the OF.
I also wonder about 1st and 2nd half splits (if they even exist). He looked like he played much more conservatively as he was learning Fenway's RF, and seemed to get get better as he got more comfortable.
No love for Julian. Shameful.
Turn 9 of his flyouts into HRs and he's at 290/394/500. So yeah, just boost that HR total to 20 and I'll take a repeat of everything else. :)
I have no memory of thinking Drew looked either good or bad in the field. He just didn't stand out at all.
#12, I'd be happy with a .285 BA and 15 home runs. Twenty seems like asking too much unless he returns to the NL.
Fenway is a good HR park -- for RH hitters (or, more precisely, to LF/LCF). It's HR death in other directions (esp CF). So CW is roughly half-right. Not the half that helps Drew obviously.
It looks like Drew never used The Wall for HR's and did not get 'lucky' in his home run hitting. All but two of his were over 400'. I read on the site that it was going to have flyball data for the 2007 season, but I have not been able to locate it.
Nowhere else to post this:
If the Red Sox do not trade for Santana: What do they do with Crisp or Ellsbury? What is the Red Sox's plan for Lowrie? Play him another year in AAA and put him at short with Lugo as the utility infielder in 2009?
What are the plans for a Julian Tavarez trade? How much can they get for him?
Crisp would be a very good fourth outfielder and defensive replacement for Manny -- unfortunately he surely would not welcome the role. We all know how poorly Pena's "400 to 450 AB" worked out. There were rumors around the winter meetings that the Red Sox asking price for Crisp was high. I'm inclined to believe that the Red Sox will be pretty stubborn on that, trusting to circumstance to resolve it one way or another. Maybe another team loses their CF to a season-ending injury and is desperate. Maybe Manny or Ortiz gets knocked out of the lineup for a couple months.
What is the Red Sox's plan for Lowrie?
Start the season playing shortstop at Pawtucket. I could easily see him taking over from Lugo in May/June if Lugo continues to struggle while Lowrie satisfies scouts with his defense. If both play well, one of the two becomes trade bait in July.
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