BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: A Tale of Two Pitchers

Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Monday, May 14, 2007

A Tale of Two Pitchers

Pitcher 1: 50.3 IP, 51 H, 2 HR, 20 BB, 29 K.
Pitcher 2: 54 IP, 46 H, 4 HR, 18 BB, 52 K.

One of these guys pitches in front of a pretty suspect defense and has an ERA of 2.68. The other pitches in front of a generally good defense and has an ERA of 4.17. How the heck can one explain the widely divergent fortunes of Andy Pettitte (pitcher 1) and Dice-K (pitcher-2)?

Dice-K, we’ve discussed here and there are plenty of theories to go around about him--my newest one is that he must give up a HR in a game in order to pitch well. But Pettitte may be a bigger mystery. During his successful run over the past 5-6 years, he’s put up K-rates of ~7/9 IP or higher; he’s shown no ability to succeed without strikeouts. Why would he have suddenly gained this ability now? His walk rate is also higher than it’s been in past years. Yet there is his ERA, in the mid-2.00s, and he’s looking good doing it too.

I suppose the most likely conclusion is that it’s early and both these guys will settle into more normal patterns, but it’s an interesting contrast to me.

Darren Posted: May 14, 2007 at 10:56 PM | 7 comment(s)
Related News: Boston

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages

1. PJ Martinez Posted: May 14, 2007 at 11:33 PM (#2364516)

"I suppose the most likely conclusion is that it’s early."

I would agree.

2. John DiFool2 Posted: May 14, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2364518)

I am very confident that Matsuzaka will finish with an ERA lower than Pettitte. Much lower.

3. Russlan is a perfectly-hyped Met BTFer Posted: May 14, 2007 at 11:39 PM (#2364520)

Could someone tell me what the correlation between ERA and DIPS and FIPS is?

4. villageidiom Posted: May 15, 2007 at 12:28 AM (#2364564)

2+ BB innings:

Pettitte
4/05 TBD 2nd 2 BB 1 ER
4/27 BOS 5th 3 BB 3 ER
5/03 TEX 1st 2 BB 0 ER

Matsuzaka
4/17 TOR 4th 3 BB 2 ER
4/27 NYY 4th 3 BB 4 ER
5/03 SEA 1st 3 BB 5 ER

There's your answer, if we must look for a simplistic answer. Those innings above account for 35% of Pettitte's walks, and 50% of Matsuzaka's. They account for 27% of Pettitte's earned runs, and 44% of Matsuzaka's.

Were Matsuzaka to have pitched in Pettitte-like fashion in those scenarios, his ERA would have been (56% + 27% = ) 83% of what it currently is, or 3.46. Coincidentally (or is it?) 3.46 is also his DIPS ERA at this point.

5. Ripwa Posted: May 15, 2007 at 10:37 AM (#2364736)

Well, if you look at their FIP;

Dice-K - 3.40
Pettitte - 3.75

Sooner or later Dice-K should surpass Pettitte in ERA.

6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 15, 2007 at 10:50 AM (#2364743)

Sooner or later Dice-K should surpass Pettitte in ERA.

There's not much difference in the variance of 50 IP of ERA and 50 IP of FIP. As such, there's not much reason to expect Pettitte's current K/BB/HR numbers to continue either - he used to strike out more batters, walk a few less, and give up a few more homers. From what I've seen of Pettitte, he looks good - I figure the Ks will come.

7. fmb Posted: May 15, 2007 at 01:27 PM (#2364824)

Basically, if you give up multiple base runners in a more clumped fashion than normal, your RA will be worse than predicted by secondary stats. As many have observed, Dice-K has had trouble pitching from the stretch, which would explain why baserunners have come unusually clumped and his RA has been surprisingly high. This theory is further supported by the fact that he's been working on improving this and has been much more effective in his last 2 starts.

Perhaps it's been just random variation, but I think the thesis has good support.

Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Monday, May 14, 2007

A Tale of Two Pitchers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Support BBTF

My Bookmarks

Hot Topics