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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Sunday, October 12, 2008ALCS Game 2: That Was ExcruciatingThe legend of Josh Beckett, invincible post-season pitcher is dead. The myth of Terry Francona, post-season genius is dead. David Ortiz: clutch god of the post season, on life support. What a tough, tough loss. The choice keep Beckett in the game that long really ruined this game for no good reason. Big picture is, of course, a little brighter--it’s 1-1 going back to Fenway, so the Sox are in good shape overall. |
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Inexcusable managing in game 2 by Francona.
No way in hell Beckett should have started the 5th inning, nevermind stayed in to face Peña and then Longoria too? Batsh¡t insane stupidity.
If Papelbon is only going to be allowed to pitch in 2 frames, and Masterson has to be pulled if he allows a runner because he'd have to face Peña, you have to let Papelbon start the 9th so you still have Masterson for the 11th.
And even after that, choosing Timlin over Byrd is indefensible.
Timlin pitched pretty well. I can defend that choice.
The front office and Tito trusted in Beckett tonight, and they were wrong. I also blame Beckett for being such a stubborn idiot - he is simply incapable of adjusting to any change in his stuff. It's not impossible to pitch with a 91-93 mph fastball, a curve, and a cutter. He just has no idea.
And I blame Tito for leaving him in for the 5th. That just made no sense. I was able to accept pitching to Iwamura and the Bossman, thinking that Lopez would face Pena and Manny D would take it from there. Wouldn't be my choice, but I was going to go with it. Shitty Beckett against Pena and Longoria was just throwing the ballgame away.
Sox management was very lucky that the game was still winnable in the fifth inning, and Tito blew it.
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Agreed with Darren that a split in Tampa is a pretty good outcome. And that was one hell of a ballgame to watch, even with the painful 5th and 11th innings.
Most brutal aspects of this game (in no order):
--Watching Beckett get lit up again and it being clear that he's not healthy.
--Watching Beckett go out for the 5th and prove that he really, really has nothing, while Tito fiddles.
--Watching Wheeler dominate the Sox with his 86-mph junk down the middle. So many swings and misses on that stuff.
--Watching the ump give a huge zone to the Tampa rookie and a tiny one to the Boston vet. Also the check swing was pretty borderline.
--Drew's pathetic throw dribbling into home.
--Ortiz's futility continues.
-- [edit] 22 baserunners and all 4 HRs that were hit were solo shots.
A huge tip of the cap to the Red Sox batting order. Dear god I've never been so terrified of a 2-3-4-5 lineup before in my life.
Why 3?
EDIT: Certainly, this isn't the big issue - it's the people who put him out there to fail, and then left him out there to fail. But I think I can reasonably expect some improvement in a guy's second start with the same sub-par stuff.
I'm thinking along the lines of pitchers who start to lose something off their stuff late in their careers. Doesn't it often take them a year or two to adjust? Look at brainiac Mike Mussina--it took him at least a season to figure out how to pitch without his best stuff. I don't think it's fair to ask Beckett to able to do that over the course of a couple games, especially when he's probably not healthy.
Maybe if you're a bird. Those pop-ups do go pretty high.
and then either have Wakefield start game 7 (again on normal rest) or have Wakefield shadow Beckett in game 7.
Beckett is injured; it's obvious in that his pitching motion has changed from the usual and he's getting drilled all over the park. It's insulting to hear Francona insist he's not hurt; he's lying. Oblique injuries do not clear up in 5 days.
Timlin should not be on the playoff roster and should not have been brought into the game at all. Use Byrd in that situation; at least he won't walk people.
At the plate, Ellsbury: terrible. Varitek: terrible. Ortiz: terrible.
A completely aggravating game.
The front office and Tito trusted in Beckett tonight, and they were wrong. I also blame Beckett for being such a stubborn idiot - he is simply incapable of adjusting to any change in his stuff. It's not impossible to pitch with a 91-93 mph fastball, a curve, and a cutter. He just has no idea.]
I don't know what is wrong with this asshat, but if he coudln't figure out by the 4th Inning that his fastball just doesn't have it and needs to tweak the approach, he's a total moron
This being said, I am convinced Beckett is done for this postseason. Although big league pitchers can still win games with 91~92 fastball and some cutter, sinker and breaking ball, he needs to have the right mindset, which Beckett doesn't. He still tried to power past the batters, but now his diminished fastballs sitting in the middle of the strike zone are pretty much BP fastballs. Matsuzaka got a much better fastball than Beckett now and he still never throws it down the middle.
I think if we win game 3, and there is a game 6, we should start Paul Byrd for sure. Beckett should be relegated into mop-up role for this series, at least.
If we lose game 3, I would suggest starting Matsuzaka in game 4, which we should be able to steal from Sonnenstine, even with Matsuzaka's 3-day rest. In that way, we can still have Lester in game 6 and Matsuzaka in game 7 both in full rest.
I wanted Beckett out in the fourth. Letting him start the fifth after that long rest was insanity.
The announcers were talking about the half hour break like it was a good thing-idiots.
He is obviously hurt. Letting him get mauled on national TV was painful.
Won't even discuss Jason other than to say maybe some young pitching for a young catcher is going to be a necessity soon.
and when ####ing Timlin came in I knew it was done.
Yeah, we may be heading back tied, but we, and everyone else, know that we had our foot on their throats last night and let them get back up, that's never a good move.
That hurt. Lots.
On a positive note, man, these guys are relentless. You could see it on the Rays faces. Like how many punches do they have to keep throwing before the Sox go down.
Under the second option, you to wait and see. Leave the rotation as is, keep Paul Byrd on reserve for Game 6 if Beckett's not improving. I think this is a bad choice, for reasons outlined above, and further, for reasons outlined below:
If the Red Sox either don't want to pitch Matsuzaka on short rest or really want to leave open a game for Beckett, they should leave Game 7 open, not Game 6. Under this option, you pitch Wakefield in Game 4, and you watch Beckett's side and hope he feels better. However, you make one move in advance - you move Lester up from Game 7 to Game 6, on normal rest, so that you have the option of pitching Wakefield in Game 7 if Beckett's side session doesn't show real improvement. I think this is absolutely necessary - if the Sox plan to have Byrd available to start Game 6, they would be left without a long man for the entire set of home games, which is just roster malpractice. The Red Sox need to avoid having both Wake and Byrd scheduled for starts, because it leaves them badly shorthanded in the bullpen.
I guess they could take the option of DL'ing Beckett and calling on the Lobsterman for long relief help, but I'd be surprised if they decided to junk Beckett for the entire postseason. He's still Josh Beckett, and he's still pretty close to being a good pitcher.
Game 3: Lester
Game 4: Wake
Game 5: Dice
Game 6: Lester
Game 7: Beckett (or Byrd if necessary)
I think I like that a lot better than pushing Dice into short rest. It at least gives you a chance of possibly using Beckett and it makes it so Wake could pitch again in game 7 if needed. Man, these injuries are piling up on this team. Anything close to good health and this is a much better team.
I know teddy won't like it, but I'd rather have Wake in the big spot. DiceK is avialable in the pen for all hands on deck.
But Papi worries me. He is not hitting the ball with authority, at all, and continues to short-circuit rallies, except when he is able to wheedle out a walk. This is not the Ortiz we remember from 2003-2007, and yes, even considering the injury, we may have to face the possibility that he will never regain his peak abilities.
I think this is overstating it a bit Mikael. The Sox can plan to have Byrd start Game 6 at the moment, but still have him available to be the Fenway long man. If used in that capacity, they can simply switch to the Lester-Wakefield Game 6-7 starting schedule.
Of course, the actual Game 6 option they are most likely to choose is Beckett.
Right now, though, yeah, he's no fun to watch. He misses pitch after pitch that he used to crush.
You're a better man than I am.
And if they pitch Beckett in Game 6 (or 7), that will be the biggest risk the Sox trainers, coaches, and FO have taken since Game 6 in 2004. Would be some crazy ####.
Ortiz's pop-ups are the last action in the incredible Rube-Goldberg-esque bird elimination device that ends up with them TRAPPED IN A DOME.
So you lay it all out. Tell Jon he's your tentative Game 7 starter, though you might need him to go in Game 6. It's the playoffs - none of this should be terribly surprising to a big league pitcher.
I'm not arguing with the merits of your plan -- they sound fine. All I'm saying is I think you're overstating the risk involved with leaving Lester waiting. And it's definitely not "roster malpractice."
Schilling is a legend. The very definition of talent, balls, brains.
If all the crap that was happening to Beckett in the 5th was happening w/2 outs, then I
can sort of see it--the glacial hook. But there was only one out. And he was getting rocked,
not nickle and dimed. Maybe part of Tito's thought process was "let's see what I'm dealing with
from here on out with this guy"? Not acceptable to me either.
amen
On the other hand, if we are aggressive, we not only get 5 starts from our top 2 starters, we also allign them up against their inferior starters: game 4 Matsuzaka against Sonnenstine, game 6 Lester against whoever they have (Edwin Jackson or Kazmir), and we only need to win one game against Matt Garza to clinch this series.
There's only one decision here for the Red Sox that they would entertain, and that is Lester for Game 6 instead of Game 7, with Beckett and/or Wakefield for Game 7 (depending on Beckett's health).
I don't think they do this--move Lester to Game 6--and here is why:
(a) If we're UP 3-2, we have a game in hand and so they feel they roll the dice with Beckett in Game 6, shadow him with Byrd, hold back the bullpen if need be, etc. and simply wait for a Game 7 with their ace and a fully-rested bullpen.
(b) If we're DOWN 3-2, the issue becomes "well, we have to win two games anyway, and one of the two is going to be have to be started by Beckett, so we might as well start him in Game 6." This presupposes he's "healthy," etc. when he throws his side session.
They faced a similar decision in 2003, remember, with Game 6, where they started John Burkett instead of Pedro on 3 days' rest, again knowing they needed to win 2 games, not just Game 6. OK, so that was Grady making the decision, not Tito, but I think the same logic holds here--you need 2 wins if you're down 3-2, and at least one of those games is going to feature a sub-optimal starter. I don't think the Red Sox care--in that particular situation--if they lose in 6 games or lose in 7; they need 2 wins and whether they wind up losing in 6 with a sub-optimal starter, or losing in 7 with a sub-optimal starter does not matter.
Now, all of this is different if it is clear that Wakefield is a better option than Beckett (perhaps Wakefield pitches a gem in Game 4); in that case, I think you might have to consider a Lester/Wakefield arrangement, with Beckett/Byrd as long men for a Game 7.
But, if I had a gun to my head, the guess here is that absolutely nothing is going to change. Unless Beckett says he physically can not go, then we're looking at Beckett for Game 6 and Lester for Game 7. My only consolation here is Kazmir might also pitch Game 6, in which case perhaps we pull out a win in a slugfest.
Last night's game was really a much bigger deal than Tito managed it to be, and that's a disappointment. We go up 2-0, the series is basically over. We still may sweep at Fenway and end this in 5, but if we go back to Tampa down 3-2, winning a Beckett Game 6 is going to be tough to pull off.
9.1 IP, 18 H, 12 R, 5 HR, 5 BB, 11 K
I think those numbers reflect the quality of his pitching. Right now, Beckett's obviously a worse option than Wakefield or Byrd.
What could change, I'd say, is not that Wake could throw a gem, but that Beckett could have an encouraging side session or see his oblique heal up a bit. If Beckett shows them something, then maybe he could earn another chance to pitch. But right now, he cannot be starting a postseason game.
The rule of thumb here is that they are extremely reluctant to pulling veterans unless hurt--they just don't do this. Francona did this with Schilling all the time when they were in Philly, and I watched an obviously gassed Schilling blow a fair amount of leads in the 8th or 9th because I was very reluctant to pull Schilling in the middle of an inning. It's the same principle at work here.
I am 95% sure Beckett will pitch Game 6, barring some kind of injury setback. I'm not saying it makes sense, based on the results so far this postseason--I'm just saying this is the far, far more likely way that this will all play out.
As I said above, we had better be up 3-2 going back to Tampa, or we're in trouble.
As a side note, if winning the WS is our goal, then we also had better hope LA puts up more of a fight against Philly, because if Philly wins in 4 or 5 they'll be able to set their rotation up, whereas ours will be a shambles going into the WS... All of this just makes me really mad Tito threw away a winnable game last night, because the value of being up 2-0 going home is huge. His use of Masterson for 2/3 IP was baffling.
I could see not extending Papelbon, but then why not have him start the 9th? I know the logic may have been you had Pedroia-Papi-Youkilis-Bay-Lowrie-Drew up in a possible 10th, and so you gamble you scratch out a run then and have Papelbon in to close it out (so therefore you don't want to take the chance of Masterson losing the game in the 9th to Pena), but that's a plan A with a Plan B being Timlin pitches the 11th!?! In what universe is that a good option? I do understand you can't (in Tito's mind) go Byrd and then Timlin, because then the 2nd guess becomes "well, why the hell is Timlin on the roster?"
Francona managed Game 2--even when it was tied in the 9th--as being a "nice game to win" instead of as a game where "if we win, we have them gasping for life," and that's a fundamental problem for me. You don't play house money up 1-0, you do when you're up 3-0 (and even then I'd argue against it, personally).
This choice is hardly Tito's alone. He's making it with Theo, Farrell, the training staff, and the rest of the front office. They have to evaluate Beckett and make a decision. It has nothing to do with Wake or Byrd - we know exactly who they are, one start won't change anything - and everything to do with Beckett.
The Red Sox talking points last night were "he's fine." If Beckett actually is fine, he should pitch game 6. If Beckett isn't fine, though, which seems bleeding obvious to anyone who watched his last two outings, he needs to be replaced. The question is the evaluation of Beckett, and that's what Tito et al will be working on getting right. I've made my evaluation, and I'd love to be proven wrong.
One more thing - on Timlin, I really don't think he pitched so bad. He was hitting 91-92 and getting good sink, he threw a pretty reasonable splitter. He didn't get his command right in time, but I think Timlin for an inning or two was a better bet than Paul Byrd. Also, once you put Byrd in, you can never take him out. So if they went to Byrd first, it would be a statement that Timlin was a mistake. If they believe Timlin should be on the roster - which we know they do - then by definition he needs to pitch before Byrd. So, if you think it was wrong to pitch Timlin last night, your beef is with Theo as much as with Tito - it's a decision that was already made when they finalized the roster.
You honestly think he's a true talent 12 ERA pitcher right now?
To me he looks just the same except he's 4-5 MPH slower. Pretty sure the pitch f/x statnerds think 1 MPH is worth about .25 ERA as a general rule of thumb. My guess is he's a true talent 4.50'ish ERA pitcher right now, with potential to be a lot better.
If he were to switch to throwing the 2-seamer almost exclusively in his next start, I think he could probably be successful. But as long as he's going to insist on sticking mostly with the 4-seamer and that shitty cutter, he's going to keep getting tattooed. (FWIW, I thought this was his problem in the regular season too. Throwing more 4-seamers than he did last year caused his GB% to fall and his LD% to skyrocket.)
why not Beckett through 4, Delcarmen/Masterson 5-7, Okajima/Papelbon 8-10. and then you dip into your Lopez's, Byrd's and what have yous if the game is still going?
or, why not Beckett through 3, Wakefield 4-6, and then the bullpen? (start Byrd on Tuesday)
How could Francona not see that Beckett didnt have "it" when everyone else on the planet could see it?
and, DID HE NOT KNOW THERE WAS AN OFF-DAY SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY?
Same here, it was pretty brutal. My friend and I brought my other TV out to the living room and hooked up my Wii to it at about 9:30, playing Smash Brothers matches during commercials was about the only thing that kept me from going nuts during that marathon.
We are limping, Lester, Dice and Wake from here on out with some ass-grap combo of Byrd and Beckett. The good thing, that might be enough. Now lets hope Papi and Tec get a little life in the bat.
Why isn't Casey playing first/on the roster?
Brawl would make me even crazier. I can't stand that game, it's a terrible fighter. Melee, on the other hand, would ease all the pain.
Casey also seems to be filling some doomsday roster slot, should anything horrible happen to Youkilis or Kotsay late in a game where Cora/Lowrie has already been used, etc. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, except they must be worried that Youkilis may get hurt playing 3B, and were that to happen Kotsay is the only 1B who could play if an in-game disaster happened (Ortiz could, of course, but then you'd lose the DH).
#40--Matt, I don't disagree that something is obviously wrong with Beckett, but it could be it's entirely mental. He may be one of those guys who simply can't execute when he's worried about something being physically wrong with him. For all we know he could still be thinking about the tingling in his hand and the oblique stuff is a cascade issue as a result of him doing something differently because he's worried about the elbow.
When I said a good Wake start would provide "covering fire," I should have clarified to explain that by this I meant it would give them internally some options were they to be concerned about Beckett behind the scenes (while keeping the rest of us in the dark). I could certainly see a situation where:
(1) Wakefield pitches lights-out in Game 4.
(2) Beckett has a so-so side session; the Red Sox see something that make them worried Beckett might blow up
(3) They say they want to steal an extra day of rest for Beckett, move him to Game 7, and then move Lester to Game 6.
(4) Beckett is put on a tiny leash in Game 7, with Wakefield first out of the pen to replace him. Swapping Cash for Varitek would not really be a huge drop-off in production at this point.
The best alternative to this is to at least win 2 out of 3 in Fenway (something I certainly think is possible), so you can punt Game 6 with Beckett, burn Byrd if you have to, but save the rest of the bullpen for a Game 7 with Lester.
That's a strange view to have, the gameplay is essentially the same in both games. I love Brawl though, Melee was good but the new stuff in Brawl is fantastic and I think the character balance is stronger.
As others have stated, Beckett was left in way too long. However like the Angels game we lost, tito went to paps to correspond with the heart of our order presumably winning the game. Once paps is done, we inevitably give up the game winner.
Good to see Pedroia playing well though.
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