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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Sunday, October 19, 2008

ALCS Game 7: It’s All Over

A great comeback that falls just short. The Red Sox just couldn’t push across some runs when they needed to in this game. It was bound to happen one of these years. 

Darren Posted: October 19, 2008 at 11:41 PM | 132 comment(s)
  Related News: Boston

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   101. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: October 20, 2008 at 12:43 PM (#2990058)

You're kidding with this, right?


I'm not. At some point, Ortiz will be like 0 for his last 20 and Tek will be like 3 for 5 lifetime against that night's starting pitcher.

My main thesis is that if he's on the team, he'll play so much that it'll infuriate everyone. I don't see a catcher, a team leader, who has been into almost every pitch for this team for the last four thousand years, taking a part-time role while a league-average catcher takes his spot.

I think the best scenario for this team at this point is if they convince him to be a first-base coach or something. If he really wants to play, I think it'll end badly. Which would be too bad.
   102. Joe Bivens, Ditch Digger Posted: October 20, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#2990064)
I will add this to my "Wily Mo never hits 20 HR's in the majors in any full season" bet: Jason Varitek will never DH for the Red Sox. My god. They'll have other bench players that hit better. They'll always have a Sean Casey or a Gabe Kapler they'll throw out there before the back-up catcher.
   103. OCD SS Posted: October 20, 2008 at 12:52 PM (#2990068)
Can one of the Sox fans explain to me why Kotsay was even on the roster? He doesn't hit enough to even play CF any more, so he's at best the third-string CF on the Red Sox. To actually have him play first base for all seven games of the LCS is just totally unnecessary. Wasn't there a Dan Johnson or Mike Sweeney they could have picked up? Putting Bay at first and Ellsbury in left probably would have improved the team both offensively and defensively.


He wouldn't have been their if Brian Giles wasn't such a p@ssy. The Sox needed someone who could play RF while Drew was out in Sept, and who also could play 1B. He turned out to be a pretty good defensive 1Bman, and the Sox seem to value defense at 1B more than other teams (which is why Casey didn't get into a game). That said, the Ellsbury thing wouldn't really fly because he went 0 for his last 20, and I think you'd be hard pressed to find any team that would start moving star players around in the playoffs.
   104. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: October 20, 2008 at 01:01 PM (#2990075)
Yeah, Ellsbury played his way right out of the starting lineup in the ALCS. I can't see him being in there as any better than Kotsay. Kotsay had a ton of loud outs in the series. He kept hitting the ball right at people, as opposed to Ellsbury who was comical in his utter ineptitude. Very frustrating.

The only reason Kotsay was at first was due to Lowell's injury, which flared up in the ALDS. At that point their hands were really tied with how they could arrange the lineup.
   105. Textbook Editor Posted: October 20, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#2990128)
Re: Kotsay

I'm not so sure a Youkilis at 1B, Lowrie at 3B and Cora at SS would have been a total disaster (and you could have worked Kotsay into the mix in a few games), but you look at a Lowrie-Cora-Varitek bottom 3rd and you're basically punting 3 out of 9 innings. That's why they went with Kotsay, I think.

You simply can't--in the AL, at least--punt a full third of your lineup on a regular basis. Even 2/9ths is too much to give away. I think at worst you can punt the 9-hole and that's it. And with Varitek/Cash in 2008 the 9-hole was punted every single day.

Losing Lugo actually hurt quite a bit, in that he's at least average at SS (maybe a bit below) and average in his OBP. A Lugo at SS, Lowrie at 3B and Youkilis at 1B, with Kotsay mixing in there would have been far better to work with once Lowell went down.

And yes, I can't believe I'm defending Lugo here, but I am.
   106. Harris Posted: October 20, 2008 at 01:51 PM (#2990133)
what makes you think the phillies would trade Ruiz for Varitek?

Player A) Young, cheap, decent defender, hits below average for avg and power.
Player B) Old, expensive, below avg defender, hits below average for avg, avg for power.

I'll take player A. Varitek hits slightly better and costs *a lot* more and will be out of baseball in 3-5 years at most.
   107. villageidiom Posted: October 20, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2990139)
The Boston-NYY media domination is rather annoying to those of us that don't live there and don't care.
It's annoying to those of us who live here and do care, too.

- - -

For Varitek: 1 year at $4 million, with a club option for another year at $8 million. Make the offer now, get this done... because you don't want to offer arbitration. He'll get a minimum of $8 million in arbitration if he accepts it.

The other option, of course, is to let him go. But I don't like the other realistic replacements.

- - -

Whoever is the SS backup will need to be able to handle 2B as well. Cora can do that. I doubt Lugo can. I think Lowrie is a good Plan B, put into temporary storage in Pawtucket.

If Cora is brought back - I don't know what the other options are - it has to be a one-year-guaranteed deal. He's a 10-and-5 man by the end of 2009.

- - -

I think Lugo is the starting SS next year. And I think he'll do well.

- - -

Mike Lowell:

From the MLB.com article about his hip surgery:
The injury nagged at Lowell for months. He first felt the discomfort in late June. And it lingered and lingered, even when Lowell sat for two weeks with an oblique injury in August.
If we draw the "late June" line at 6/30, Lowell had an 891 OPS before the injury and a 664 OPS after. If his surgery is successful I see no reason not to bring him back. He's by no means "done".

- - -

Timlin: gone.

Wakefield: back. Lots of decent innings = worth the cost and the roster spot.

Schilling: gone. He might bring lots of decent innings if healthy, but that's a pretty big "if".

- - -

To those who want Teixeira... set the precise dollar figure aside for a minute. What if he wants 8 years? I'm sure some other team will give it to him, and between "4 years guaranteed at a high AAV" and "8 years guaranteed at a slightly lower AAV" I think he'll take the latter. I just don't think it's wise to lock up a position on that side of the defensive spectrum for that long at the kind of AAV we're talking about. I know I'm arguing based on a strawman, but to me 8 years seems like a pretty realistic strawman for Teixeira.
   108. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!) Posted: October 20, 2008 at 01:58 PM (#2990141)
I'll take player A. Varitek hits slightly better and costs *a lot* more and will be out of baseball in 3-5 years at most.
The idea was Lowell for Ruiz, not Varitek for Ruiz.
   109. Textbook Editor Posted: October 20, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2990170)
#108 has it right, my idea was Lowell for Ruiz.

Granted, that leaves the Phillies with Chris Coste as one-half of a C platoon, but the Phillies have a pretty decent C prospect, I believe, who they weren't willing to trade, so they might either (a) bring him up, or (b) fill-in for 2009, figuring help is on the way for 2010.

The offensive upgrade from Ruiz+3-headed 3B platoon in 2008 to Lowell+Coste+C TBD would make the move worth it, I think, from the Phillies perspective.

Of course, if the Phillies win the WS, they're the kind of organization that will bring everyone back out of sheer blind loyalty to "the horses that brung us there," so the trade probably has 0% chance of happening if the Phillies win it all.
   110. villainx Posted: October 20, 2008 at 02:24 PM (#2990176)
Would putting Lowell at first and Youk at third give Lowell a better shot at being healthy and productive without detrimentally effecting Youk?
   111. Dave Cyprian Posted: October 20, 2008 at 03:13 PM (#2990234)
Congrats to the Rays, Upton, Garza and Maddon in particular. They earned it. Also bringing in David Price to stomp out what could have been another gut-wrenching loss was a brave and self-actualizing move: If the Rays are going to win with young talent, let the young talent win. IMHO, no one else on the Ray's roster, save perhaps Kazmir, was going to be able to get those last 4 outs unscathed.

Sox had a great year. No reason to hang their heads at all.
   112. Dave Cyprian Posted: October 20, 2008 at 03:18 PM (#2990241)
Oh screw it two more things... Our pint-sized MVP really missed a gopherball with Crisp on and no-one out in the eighth, didn't he?

And I had a nagging feeling this summer that the Rays had just "traded" for (future superstar) David Price and that was going to be a problem at some point.
   113. SoSH U at work Posted: October 20, 2008 at 03:21 PM (#2990245)
Oh screw it two more things... Our pint-sized MVP really missed a gopherball with Crisp on and no-one out in the eighth, didn't he?


Crisp AND Cora on, to make it more depressing.
   114. JB H Posted: October 20, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#2990318)
I really don't get the Wake must go talk. Massive overreaction to one bad game. There's absolutely no way he leaves unless he retires or gets really angry about his retarded contract.

If the Sox get Teixiera, it'll be because they trade Youkilis, not Lowell. I doubt that somebody will bite on buying high there but we'll see.

Buchholz for Salatlatlacmalchia and then get one of the big starters seems like the obvious plan for the offseason
   115. JB H Posted: October 20, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2990322)
If I'm allowed one emotional reaction to everything, let me just say that I will boycott the team forever if Alex Cora is brought back as even Pawtucket's utility infielder.
   116. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: October 20, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#2990325)
Oh screw it two more things... Our pint-sized MVP really missed a gopherball with Crisp on and no-one out in the eighth, didn't he?


Absolutely. That was a pitch that was begging to be crushed and he missed it. The Sox had a bunch of such pitches last night and popped most of the them up. I thought Kotsay got a hold of one as well but it was a deep fly out to right.
   117. The Grich Who Stole Christmas Posted: October 20, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2990357)
Boston, get rid of Old Man Varitek already. I felt bad for Sawx fans when he hit that home run because I thought "Well, he just bought an "important moment" that will justify Boston keeping him around for 3 more years". Jeez, the last third of that Boston line-up was just the least intimidating thing possible.

The Rays were the better team. They won the season series, they won the division, they won the ALCS. Game, set, match. The Boston-was-banged-up argument doesn't work, especially when all of TB's franchise players (Kazmir, Pena, Crawford, Longoria) spent time on the DL this year, as well.
   118. Hugh Jorgan Posted: October 20, 2008 at 05:47 PM (#2990421)
Gimme a ####### break. It's recitation of talking-points without any regard for the reason people play the damn games

Best dressed chicken....no sense in being a turd about it mate. Its this sort of snarkiness and know it all attitude that puts off the average person from not only commenting on this site but not even trying to become a more informed fan of this great game we all enjoy. If you reckon someone is wrong, do the research, post the facts and prove it. I merely posted my opinion on Sabathia and him going 4 times on 3 days rest. I just reckon if the Brewers had long term plans for this guy, it just seemed abusive; which in my mind is criminal.

I'd love to hear a well researched counter argument, of course without the childish insults.
   119. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2990454)
Absolutely. That was a pitch that was begging to be crushed and he missed it. The Sox had a bunch of such pitches last night and popped most of the them up. I thought Kotsay got a hold of one as well but it was a deep fly out to right.

That usually suggests that the pitcher had better stuff than could be discerned on TV.
   120. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: October 21, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2991250)
The Rays were the better team. They won the season series, they won the division, they won the ALCS. Game, set, match. The Boston-was-banged-up argument doesn't work, especially when all of TB's franchise players (Kazmir, Pena, Crawford, Longoria) spent time on the DL this year, as well.

No disagreement here, the Rays were definitely the better team.

Kazmir, Pena, Crawford, and Longoria were all healthy for the ALCS (well, Kazmir was probably kinda healthy). Beckett and Lowell were not at all, and Ortiz probably wasn't either. That doesn't away from what Tampa accomplished; they won the series so they are the best team in the AL. But it's natural to think how things might have turned out had Beckett or Lowell been in better health.

Oh well.

I am fully on board with allowing Varitek to walk away, never to be seen again. He's a corpse now.
   121. villageidiom Posted: October 21, 2008 at 04:23 PM (#2991279)
I am fully on board with allowing Varitek to walk away, never to be seen again. He's a corpse now.


...and what non-corpse do you replace him with?
   122. AROM Posted: October 21, 2008 at 04:53 PM (#2991313)
A cheap corpse? Kevin Cash ain't much of a hitter but he could probably manage .220 with 12 homers, and has a better arm.
   123. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: October 21, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2991335)
Are there any Molinas available? I've always wanted a Molina on the Red Sox.
   124. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!) Posted: October 21, 2008 at 05:05 PM (#2991338)
A cheap corpse? Kevin Cash ain't much of a hitter but he could probably manage .220 with 12 homers, and has a better arm.
Well, to what end? It's one thing if the Sox use that money to get Tex or CC or something, but it's quite another if that just goes to line Henry's pockets, intentionally or not.
   125. karlmagnus Posted: October 21, 2008 at 05:18 PM (#2991345)
They could always resign Manny! Ortiz would probably recover then, and if they lose Varitek and trade Youkilis that's two of the problem teammates gone.
   126. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!) Posted: October 21, 2008 at 05:25 PM (#2991356)
They could always resign Manny! Ortiz would probably recover then,
Manny would throw wrist surgery in with the cost of his contract?
   127. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: October 21, 2008 at 05:32 PM (#2991362)
Ortiz OPS before Manny trade - .858
Ortiz OPS after Manny trade - .900

Hard to say that the loss of Manny was particularly impactful to Ortiz.
   128. RB in NYC (Now with Resolutions!) Posted: October 21, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2991363)
Are there any Molinas available? I've always wanted a Molina on the Red Sox.
I bet the Yankees would give them Jose. Then they could sign Varitek. That would be worth it just to piss off a huge segment of Red Sox fans. Plus to see him and A-Rod pretend to like each other.
   129. Hugh Jorgan Posted: October 21, 2008 at 07:03 PM (#2991444)
A cheap corpse? Kevin Cash ain't much of a hitter but he could probably manage .220 with 12 homers, and has a better arm

I agree. Was it just me or did you fret everytime the Rays got someone on first? You just knew they'd be successful if they tried to steal. Who did Tek throw out...the catcher, c'mon that barely counts.

If you can't hit and can't stop the running game...well there isn't much left is there?
   130. Darren Posted: October 21, 2008 at 07:34 PM (#2991467)
I kind of can't believe people get so upset when someone says that a pitcher might have been overworked. Sabathia worked way more innings than anyone but Halladay, and it's not as if Halladay has been able to repeatedly pitch that amount. The last time Halladay pitched that much, he missed a lot of the next two seasons. Getting back to Sabathia specifically, he's never pitched this many games or innings before. He repeatedly pitched on 3 days rest, which is not part of his normal routine. Suggesting that his workload is a concern completely reasonable.
   131. Toby Posted: October 22, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#2992098)
I think the focus of our efforts here on Sox Therapy this offseason should be on what we *really* need. Ponies.
   132. Answer Guy Posted: October 27, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2996319)
I'm still thinking more offense might be needed, but I'm not sure how we'd get it without moving someone who'd either be hard to move or possibly prematurely cutting bait on in the case of younger players.

I get chided some for pessimism on here, but I do generally like where the pitching staff seems to be headed, with Dice-K and Beckett in what should be their prime years, Lester looking great, and plenty of candidates for the other two slots.

The offense worries me some. I don't see any spot that seems a reasonable bet to improve (maybe Ellsbury and CF generally) and see lots of potential decline, either due to age (Ortiz, Lowell, maybe Drew, Varitek if he stays), fragility (all of the above), or years that seem too good to be true (Youkilis, Pedroia). Bay, for all that I was in favor of acquiring him, is an offensive downgrade from Manny (I think it's a decent tradeoff all in all, since he's younger, cheaper, and a much better defender.) I'm especially concerned about Ortiz' ability to rebound.
   133. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: October 27, 2008 at 02:30 AM (#2996346)
I'm exceptionally worried about Ortiz as well - next year is huge.
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