Outside chance I know, but I wonder how much of a shot Jed has to take away short from Lugo with a hot spring (also assuming Lugo is ice-cold).

I don't think I quite agree on the bullpen. I have found something profoundly minor to argue about!

Papelbon, Okajima, Timlin, Delcarmen, Lopez (or other loogy)

Those five are set. Then we have the long man, should be Tavarez. Is there any reason to carry Kyle Snyder as well as Tavarez? The Sox have had Snyder around for a year and a half now - if he hasn't figured out how to use his curveball to be an effective reliever yet, I don't think there's much use. I think that Gronkiewicz and Corey both have a relatively good shot at knocking off Snyder for that final bullpen slot. Of course, it's quite possible that neither Corey nor Gronkiewicz will show enough in spring to bring the Sox to a decision on Snyder.

I don't think there's any chance that two of Snyder/Corey/Gronkiewicz make the roster, barring injuries. The Sox have carried a loogy each of the last three years. No reason to expect anything new. The question of whether Lopez is actually any good, though, should be raised. My take is, no, he's incredibly bad. He has a pretty ok submarine fastball, but his slider is useless, and he's inexplicably started throwing a changeup as his second pitch. Javier, seriously - your job is not to get slightly better at attacking righties, it's to put lefties away. Your changeup doesn't help you actually do your job. Figure out how to throw a slider that people will actually swing at, or go home.

Craig Breslow apparently hasn't impressed as a possible loogy - I've never seen him pitch, or if I have, I don't remember it. It's hard to believe he could be worse than Lopez, though.

Darren, I think you have to mention Aardsma as a question. He's out of options, so they wouldn't have wasted time acquiring him if he had no chance to make the team. Could threaten Snyder or Lopez for a job? Hansen and Hansack are also guys to watch, even if neither has much chance of making the Opening Day roster.

I don't see Coco/Ellsbury as much of a competition. If they are both on the team then they will both play. The greater question is if/when Coco will be traded. (With a sleeper possibility of an Ellsbury trade.)

Breslow is out of options as well - he could get a shot at beating out Lopez, I suppose.

Ooh, I forgot about Aardsma. He could also earn the 6th spot in the bullpen!

Those five are set. Then we have the long man, should be Tavarez. Is there any reason to carry Kyle Snyder as well as Tavarez? The Sox have had Snyder around for a year and a half now - if he hasn't figured out how to use his curveball to be an effective reliever yet, I don't think there's much use. I think that Gronkiewicz and Corey both have a relatively good shot at knocking off Snyder for that final bullpen slot.

Snyder seemed pretty effective last year, for a long man. Note that Tavarez might be starting, hence furthering the need for Snyder.

I think Aardsma and Gronkiewicz both have a decent shot of making the team over Buchholz. Because of service time issues and the typical April slow schedule, I'd leave Buchholz in the minors until the middle of May.

The Sox have had Snyder around for a year and a half now - if he hasn't figured out how to use his curveball to be an effective reliever yet, I don't think there's much use.

They have to keep Synder around. Because once he's released, he'll sign with Baltimore or San Francisco or someone else who's going to be really #### this year, and immediately put together a brilliant season, just to annoy people. That's what the Kyle Synder's of the world do.

I myself can't wait for Farnsworth to get dealt somewhere in May and instantly turn into an unhittable monster for the duration of the year.

They signed Matt Miller, too. Maybe he beats out someone for the last bullpen spot.

The only question that needs to be asked is if we can sweep another series?

What's in store for can't miss prospect Travis Hughes? The guy dominated the VWL...

but I wonder how much of a shot Jed has to take away short from Lugo with a hot spring (also assuming Lugo is ice-cold).

Probably only if Lugo gets injured. I can't see the FO making any important decisions like that based on a spring training small sample size...

Am I the only one who thinks Lugo isn't toast?

Am I the only one who thinks Lugo isn't toast?

No, I think he's got a decent chance for a comeback this year. Last year was, by far, the worst year of his career, in terms of OPS+. At this point, if he can get his OPS somewhere around 730 (which he has done in most years), we'd all have to be pretty damn happy.

I think one cruddy year by Lopez has made us all hate him more than he deserves. He faced about as many righties as lefties last year and ZIPS still thinks he'll be an above average reliever. I don't like the loogy role in general but if you're going to have one, he's not horrible. Wouldn't mind seeing him beaten out by Breslow or someone, of course.

As for Snyder, I just assumed he'd be on the team because he's got a guaranteed contract and they seemed to like him as a long man. I agree that he hasn't shown much, and I guess his $800K salary isn't going to stop them from going another way. If Gronky, Hansen, Corey, or Miller gets his spot, I wouldn't be shocked. Corey's an interesting one because Francona really seemed to take a shine to him.

Am I the only one who thinks Lugo isn't toast?

I'm with you too, vi. So much of his crappy 07 was a product of his mindblowingly awful June. If he can avoid posting another -16 OPS+ month, which I suspect he will, he should return to being a decent glove, decent bat at shortstop. Not necessarily worth the money, but not a drain on the team's efforts either.

Others who aren't toast but rather english muffins: Coco, Curt

I wonder how much of a shot Jed has to take away short from Lugo with a hot spring

None.

-- MWE

Lugo's second half was better that I'd realized. Not fantastic, mind you..

Am I the only one who is not caught up in the Ellsbury hype? I didn't count, but I can remember at least four of his world series hits being either swinging bunts, bleeders or bloops. I say he starts in Pawtucket, learns to drive the ball and resurfaces when Coco is traded at midseason, when he almost undoubtedly will have increased his value. And I don't believe for a second that Tavarez will be with the team to start the season. Someone will want him, probably badly enough to offer something of use, if not just total relief from the $3.8 mill he is owed. Snyder will be a totally adequate fifth starter -- they will not him go, he is Epstein's top reclamation project -- if they want Buchholz to put in some more time in the minors, which I think they do.

Am I the only one who thinks Lugo isn't toast?

he'll be better than he was last year, but unless the red sox follow the patriots lead and dig up the grass and install some field turf, i don't see him coming close to his tampa bay numbers.

but I can remember at least four of his world series hits being either swinging bunts, bleeders or bloops.

those don't count?

those don't count?

they count, and ellsbury would probably continue to get those kind of hits in the majors, but he can be more than a slap hitter. i'm not saying to get rid of him, just take advantage of having coco around till he's ready

Ellsbury hit .438 in the world series. I certainly agree that his WS stats are not the best measure of his likely production next year.

On the other hand, his full season MLE was 308/359/411 - that's already above average for a CF, even before you factor in the added value of his stolen bases. He's got a great approach at the place, he's going to get a bunch more cheap singles than the typical player because of his great speed, and he showed the ability to drive the ball if he's challenged. Combine that with his excellent CF range, and I think the Sox would be insane not to start Ellsbury in CF.

johnro - welcome.

Am I the only one who is not caught up in the Ellsbury hype? I didn't count, but I can remember at least four of his world series hits being either swinging bunts, bleeders or bloops.

He had 7 hits in the WS, and 4 were doubles. He can already drive the ball.

Part of the allure of Ellsbury is that he can drive the ball enough to keep the infield back, but with the bleeders and bunts (and his speed) the infield really can't afford to stay back.

If you think his .360/.429/.520 line in the postseason was a small sample, you can go back to his .353/.394/.509 line in the regular season. Or his .319/.387/.427 line in AA and AAA. Even if his AA/AAA line is what he does in the bigs, that's essentially Tim Raines.

Of course, none of that is a guarantee of future performance. Ellsbury, like other high prospects, is hyped for what he might be rather than what he is. But right now, we only know the former. And he's damn fun to watch.

I say he starts in Pawtucket, learns to drive the ball and resurfaces when Coco is traded at midseason, when he almost undoubtedly will have increased his value.

Coco's value will max out with the first CF injury of spring training. Once someone has a need, Coco is a logical stopgap. If I didn't think Ellsbury were ready I might have a different attitude, but I think he's ready.

And I don't believe for a second that Tavarez will be with the team to start the season. Someone will want him, probably badly enough to offer something of use, if not just total relief from the $3.8 mill he is owed. Snyder will be a totally adequate fifth starter -- they will not him go, he is Epstein's top reclamation project -- if they want Buchholz to put in some more time in the minors, which I think they do.

You might be right about Tavarez, in that he might not be with the team to start the season. But if someone wants him badly enough to give us something worthwhile in return it's probably a sign that he's of use to us.

I like Snyder's results last year - but I don't like how he got there, and I don't think he'll be as successful this year. It's possible he turned a corner, pitching more deceptively and getting away from the heart of the plate. Some of the peripherals bear that out - his walk rate went up, his line drive rate went down. Balls in play were turned into outs at a far better rate than he'd seen in his career - which, absent the line drive rate, I'd normally expect not to be repeated. But his K rate dropped; if he were getting hitters to chase bad pitches I'd expect to see the K rate rise along with the other stuff. He also had a lot of unintentional 3-0 counts last year. So I'm not really convinced he's for real. I am eager to find out, though, and hope he makes the team.

That said, to start the season I have more faith in Tavarez as the #5 than Snyder. (And more faith in Lester than either one of them. Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Buchholz, and Lester, with one of the latter three making room for Schilling eventually, is what I see for the rotation.)

If Buchholz only has so many innings this year, I'd much rather that they be thrown in the majors.

And I'm pretty sure David Ortiz is Epstein's top reclamation project.

This is a team that doesn't have any big questions. But, there are some middling ones.

Other not horrible, but still pertinent, questions in 2008 include:

(1) Depth in the rotation if Curt isn't a significant part of it.

The top two spots are obvious. The #3/4 spots are taking by a 40 y/o who missed real time in '07 b/c of a significant injury, and a guy who has a bunch of question marks (for justifiable reasons, of course). #5 and 6 are split b/w a guy who is one of the top 5 pitching prospects around, and a guy we hope will give 120 innings of 5 or so ERA ball. #7 is whatever guy you like in AAA that week, or a waiver wire reliever who had been awful as a starter. This is a very very good rotation - but the depth just moved from being extraordinary to good/solid, and that makes a difference. There are two players with about 165 total ML innings that are supposed to contribute 350+ innings this year alone. That must create some questions, though not big ones.

(2) Production from 3B and C.

Most systems project Lowell as 780-810 OPS player, but ZiPS sees a 760 year out of Mike. Anything less than that is a real albatross. The team does have good internal options to replace injury, though.

Every system sees a 760-780 OPS for Tek, which would put him in the above average to significantly above average range. But, if that drops or if he loses significant time, this becomes a real concern. Again, few teams have any real solutions if the starting, above average C loses real time to injury (or suckiness) - but with an older C, this is a bigger concern than for other teams. Not a huge deal.

(3) Bullpen...

Ahh, heck. There are a ton of options here - who am I kidding? I expect them to keep their options open by leaving those players on the 40 man without options in the majors for as long as possible, until it is painfully obvious they can't any longer or there is an injury. This is an area of real depth.

Other questions include Drew, Manny's production, Ortiz's health, Youkilis's health, Pedroia's health, etc... but these are the standard questions that all players and teams have.

Questions going into spring training? Yes. Who will hit more home runs, our $70 million dollar free agent outfielder or our 5'6" mighty mite 2nd bagger?

(For the record in 2007 Drew outpaced the rookie 12 to 10, counting post-season, but they are a dead even 10-10 when you don't count games played against your brother).

And I'm pretty sure David Ortiz is Epstein's top reclamation project.

all interesting points. but i would start by saying that ortiz is no one's reclamation project, just a big fat mistake minnesota made. the guy could always hit. snyder is a former first rounder derailed by injury who was way behind developmentally and is slowly making up for lost time. he really could turn out to be something. as for tavarez, yes, he would be worth something if he remained, as a fifth starter or swingman, but the sox have several less expensive, almost as good options (if not better) who aren't as expensive. and yes, i am sure they still care about their payroll, if only to say they are x percent below the yanks. upon further review, i agree on buchholz, but i still think ellsbury should start in the minors, work on doing more than fighting off some pitches, and see if coco can regain the stroke he had in cleveland before he is dealt. i don't see anyone beating down the door for his services right now, even though there are some center-starved teams out there.

johnro, it's already pretty obvious Ellsbury is a much better player than Crisp and has nothing left to prove at the minor league level.

The only real question regarding that situation is what do you aant to accomplish by trading Crisp? I would be hapy with a minor league catcher with some upside or another bullpen arm.

He had 7 hits in the WS, and 4 were doubles. He can already drive the ball.

How many of those doubles were really "driven?" Did any of them even make it to the warning track? I remember at least 2 where the fielder just barely didn't catch it and the ball dribbled away while he recovered from his slide; Ellsbury's speed turned those into doubles, but he can't depend on that kind of luck (IIRC one was a pop up that Hawpe just couldn't get to and another where the CFer just missed a soft fly that knuckled under his glove).

Speed isn't luck, ocd. Speed is a repeatable skill.

Are There Any Real Questions Going into Spring Training?

What can I say?
Where can I go?
Where can I go to get my poodle clipped in Burbank?
Where can I go to get organic vaseline for my ????
Where can I go to get my jeans embroided at Fullurton?.....
Where can I go to get my zipper repaired in Hollywood?
Where can I go to get my speakers fixed?
Where can I go to get my exit lights?
Where can I go to get my stomach pumped?
Where can I go to collapse?

Did any of them even make it to the warning track?

I'm pretty sure the leadoff double in Game 4 went to the track. In Game 3 he hit doubles to left, center, and right; I don't think any of them made the track.

Speed isn't luck, ocd. Speed is a repeatable skill.

But having those balls fall for hits rather than be caught for outs is luck (essentially); the only thing his speed does is cause those lucky hits to be stretched for doubles rather than singles.

The issue is is he a one dimensional slap hitter dependent on his speed or not? Villageidiom pointed to his WS doubles as proof that he can drive the ball, but going back and looking at how those doubles occured leaves us chalking them up to his speed again. I think Jacoby is going to be pretty good, but I think the people waiting for him to emerge into super-stardom are going to be waiting for awhile.

I don't think that Jacoby will be any kind of superstar, but I think he has a good chance at being about as good as Damon's best years, with a little less power but a better arm and more stolen bases.

Well, glad to see there's at least some debate on Ellsbury. His leadoff double in Game 4 did not go to the track but that was a hard-hit ball. He will learn to drive the ball, and he could end up Damon lite, as Dan says. But he's not there yet. I for one can wait till midseason and withstand half a year of Crisp, even if he does not improve, waiting for that to happen.

The issue is is he a one dimensional slap hitter dependent on his speed or not?

No. He has gap power. He put 3 balls into the rightcenter bullpen last year. You can't do that being a slap hitter.

But he's not there yet.

How can you say that? His major league performance so favorably compares to Damons' best years. From what I have seen, he has all of Damon's speed, about the same zone coverage, a better arm, and most, if not all of his power, which he will acquire in time.

I for one can wait till midseason and withstand half a year of Crisp, even if he does not improve, waiting for that to happen.

I'd rather have Ellsbury playing CF at Fenway from day 1, so he can get adjusted to playing defense at the major league level and in Fenway in particular. I don't want to see him getting acclimated to Fenway's walls in August and September.

Johnro, there's absolutely no point in making Ellsbury spend more time in AAA. He's already proven he can handle the bigs and he's already proven he's a better player than Crisp. Making him sit behind Crisp for no good reason is folly, pure folly.

Dan, he looked pretty acclimated to me. And Kevin, 100 MLB at bats or whatever he has are too small a sample. I don't see him hitting 15 home runs the way he swings the bat now. Ever.

Dan, he looked pretty acclimated to me

Then clearly you didn't see him trying to play balls off and near the walls in Fenway.

Kevin, first of all kudos to you because any time you can get the word folly into a post is a good one.

I agree with you Kevin in that he is ready for the bigs, but I also think you are overestimating his development of power. Sure he can plonk a few in the gaps, we'll have to see how he does in 600+ abs in the pros.

For me, if he can just keep that OBP around .375, with his speed he will be a devastating lead off hitter and I can overlook a slg % of .390

folly

NY Knicks color commentator Walt "Clyde" Frazier's favorite word:

"Previously with the ill-fated 3 on 2 break, this time with the asinine entry pass, da' Knicks offensive folly continues."

No. He has gap power. He put 3 balls into the rightcenter bullpen last year. You can't do that being a slap hitter.

You can't? Canseco was basically a slap hitter and I wouldn't really hesitate to call Damon a slap hitter either. As much as you want Ellsbury to have 20 HR power, no one else thinks he does. Almost no one that posts here, none of the guys like Law/Sickels/etc, probably not even anyone in the Red Sox organization. He's basically Juan Pierre with better baserunning skills and more walks. And there's nothing wrong with that, but it certainly doesn't scream superstar.

Johnro, there's absolutely no point in making Ellsbury spend more time in AAA. He's already proven he can handle the bigs and he's already proven he's a better player than Crisp. Making him sit behind Crisp for no good reason is folly, pure folly.

No, he hasn't. The numbers he put up in those 155 MLB PA's doesn't prove anything more than Pedroia's first 163 PAs did.

Juan Pierre?? Geez Louise. When I project Ellsbury, I think Ichiro.

When I project Ellsbury, I think Ichiro.

And Sox fans around the world pray for this to come true....

I'd take a Pierre clone with 70BB thrown in with better defense and baserunning skills...

You can't? Canseco was basically a slap hitter and I wouldn't really hesitate to call Damon a slap hitter either. As much as you want Ellsbury to have 20 HR power, no one else thinks he does.

how about 12? that's how many pierre has for his career. pierre's season high? 3. ellsbury's major league total last year in 116 at bats? 3. i think it's fair to say that ellsbury already has significantly more power than pierre ... so can we stop with the juan pierre comparisons already? thanks.

Brett Butler: or How I learned to stop worrying and be perfectly content with Jacoby Ellsbury's future

So here's an attempt to answer the "hard hit balls" question: Thanks to SoSH's Marbleheader for putting the video together:

Judge for yourself.

ocd, thanks for the link. Yes, small sample size, but not one single ball driven into the gaps. Only one truly went to the fence and that was slapped the other way.

Gee, it looked like amateur hour in the link whenever the Rockies were fielding also, funny that I don't remember them looking so average in the field during the series.

Like I stated above though, I'm happy with the Pierre clone with 70bb added in along with better defence and baserunning skills.

Canseco was basically a slap hitter

You're kidding, right? Canseco was always pulling his rib muscles and facing DL time, he took such a big rip.

I agree with you Kevin in that he is ready for the bigs,

Of course he's ready. His MLE's suggested it and his MLB numbers confirmed it. I'm not a professional scout but by the way he handles himself, he sure looks like a major leaguer to me.

And Kevin, 100 MLB at bats or whatever he has are too small a sample. I don't see him hitting 15 home runs the way he swings the bat now. Ever.

His 162 game average in BB-Ref has him at 34 doubles, 5 triples and 15 homers. And that's now, before he has a chance to develop some real pop. There's absolutely no reason to believe he won't develop Damon power. He is the same size and weight as Damon right now.

He's basically Juan Pierre with better baserunning skills and more walks.

Get real. Ellsbury has already matched Pierre's career high in homers and he only played 33 games, some of those as a partimer.

Piere has 12 homers in over 5000 career plate appearances. Ellsbury already has 3 in only 127.

They will not trade Tavarez. He's versatile and good insurance for them.

His 162 game average in BB-Ref has him at 34 doubles, 5 triples and 15 homers.

Wow, and I mean wow, I'd be over the moon with this.

Get real

That's a bit snarky mate, but I get your point regarding the Pierre reference. The Brett Butler reference above by RobertM is a good one though, I'd love to see that.

Kevin, you obviously see his upside as a bit higher then the rest of us. I would love nothing more than to proven wrong regarding Ellsbury. I think a more realistic expectation of his xbh is probably 25-28 doubles, 5-7 triples, and 7-9 homers. Not much of difference, but slightly less then stated above.

I'm with kevin on Ellsbury. I liked what I saw of him. He'll be a nice bottom of the order hitter, to start. He could eventually leadoff.

Pedroia
Youk
Papi
Manny
Lowell
Drew
Varitek
Lugo
Ellsbury

Then,
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Papi
Manny
Lowell
Youk
Drew
Varitek
Lugo

I'm with kevin on Ellsbury

o.k., so that's two of you. Look, I think he can be a great leadoff hitter and he's a heads up player who deserves his shot. Starting him in the 9 slot is a good idea.

You guys are basically projecting him to be a Tim Raines clone and I don't think you'd have any disappointed posters here if that happened over the next 15 years.

I'm the one who brought up Tim Raines, but only because that's level of the worst of his recent track record. I wouldn't call him a Tim Raines clone, but I provided Raines as a point of reference for Ellsbury's supposedly not-MLB-ready performance to date. As I said before, it's no guarantee of future performance.

ellsbury:juan pierre::petunia:eckstein

#57-They ought to go Dusty, Jake, just to limit the GIDP's.

I like Ellsbury hitting 9th. That's just me.

I think a more realistic expectation of his xbh is probably 25-28 doubles,

Hugh, I would be shocked if he doesn't get at least 35 doubles, if for no other reason than he plays in the best doubles hitting park ever. Ellsbury has at least the same amount of power as Pedroia and Pedroia hit 39. Even Crisp hit 28 and Crisp doesn't have as much power as Ellsbury.

Ellsbury has an XBH every 13.3 AB in his career, Pedroia every 10.6 AB, and that's despite 1/3 of Pedroia's AB being at AAA and 1/3 in MLB. Furthermore, I'd have to imagine that a lot of Ellsbury's doubles in the minors were due to his speed. Ellsbury, right now, doesn't have nearly Pedroia's power. That being said, he is fast and does play in Fenway, so 30+ doubles isn't unreasonable. PECOTA's weighted mean was 29 last year, and I'd have to imagine that's a little higher this year.

I'd still play Coco 100 games or so, including some spelling Ellsbury, unless he builds up enough value to actually be worth something in trade.

Sox signed Colon.

The Herald has it also. Minor league deal.

Any chance of getting a thread for tonight's game vs. the Twins on NESN?

What time is the game? Great news.

Game's at 7, Bivens.

Thanks!

Edit...I'm lazy not to look it up. I know. It's Friday.

Think it would be worth submitting a thread for a chatter like the Mets fans did for today?

Lefty Varitek - Crisp - Lefty Kielty is a pretty brutal 7-8-9 for tonight's lineup.

Kottaras had a hell of a game. 2-2 with a walk, a double and a home run. Maybe he can win the backup catcher job so we don't have to see Mirabelli again?

I just got the 2008 BP annual and they kill Kottaras in it, saying he's not a major leaguer.

BS to that. His numbers the second half last year were quite good.

Also nice that Dusty Brown went deep today. Maybe there is some depth at catcher after all.

Jonathan Papelbon is a national treasure.

Did anyone else know that Michael Holley has a book about Francona coming out this spring?

anyone read excerpts?

Man Sox Therapy is dead compared to past years... and yet I have nothing to add. Bring on the all-star break. It seems like it might be until mid-july until red sox fans wake up this year.

EDIT: OK I have one thing to add -- freaking Bartolo Colon better not take Buchholz spot in the rotation. But he won't. Phew.
EDIT TWO: On second thought, I'm not really opposed to Colon in principle- I'm just a huge Buchholz fan like I assume most of you are. Regarding Colon though, his media guide entry says: "Won more games than everyone but Randy Johnson from 1998 - 2005." Of course wins for a pitcher is heavily team dependent... but if there is any reality at all to the idea that a pitcher can control his wins and losses, perhaps Colon will do well here in a system with a potent offense like he had in LAA. IE Win more games than his peripherals would suggest.

Man Sox Therapy is dead compared to past years... and yet I have nothing to add. Bring on the all-star break. It seems like it might be until mid-july until red sox fans wake up this year.

Seriously. Then again, they just won a second WS in four years, there are few injuries and fewer interesting roster battles, and by all accounts they'll be on of the top few teams in baseball again this year barring catastrophe. Hard to get worked up with those conditions.

there's not a lot of questions, but the AL is as tough as ever. there could very well be a tough luck 95 win team that miss the playoff this year.

Sox is fairly sure to be at least 90 win or so even if A LOT of things go wrong. but 90 win is just not gonna cut it this year in the AL.

these questionmarks are relatively minor, but it's really the question between another repeat or a tough luck 90 win season that make you miss the playoffs.

a) can Beckett keep THIS up? he's very good, but it's not easy to keep cy-young level seasons for back to back seasons.

b) will Matsuzaka take a step foward? I belive he probably will but until it happens...

c) statistically speaking its just fairly unlikely that Papalbon and Okajima match last year's utter dominance level. they're most likely due for at least a very slight regression. can the other guys cover for that loss?

d) much has been made of the Yankee's relieing on a bunch of kids this year. but the Sox are too, to a lesser extend.

e) will Manny go back to being Manny or just another good hit no glove LF?

f) can Tek and Ortiz avoid injury issues?

g) Lowell is due to at least come back down somewhat. Lugo and Drew's sudden drop off at this age usually does not bold well for their future (espically since they weren't suffering apparent injuries. which probably suggest losing skills)

h) Will Ellsbury be a immediate upgrade over Coco? prospects rarelly develop exactly like whta you think they will, sometimes a good prospect takes a while to adjust to the level. I definately agree that he's not Juan Pierre. but I think the original comps of him to Johnny Damon (with a little less pop) still holds. that's good. but that's not a real star in all but the best seasons.

i) will Pedoria have a sophmore slump?

j) Fenway 's park factor last year favored hitters A LOT more then it usually does. if it goes back to normal then the massive amount of doubles the Red Sox got last year could see a drop.

relatively, the Red Sox probably have the least question marks. but still this is a season where we'll probably see a VERY good team miss the playoff.

Man Sox Therapy is dead compared to past years... and yet I have nothing to add. Bring on the all-star break. It seems like it might be until mid-july until red sox fans wake up this year.

There's actually plenty to talk about. It's dead because I haven't been posting because I've been busy with some other projects. I've suggested to Jim in the past that he find some other people to post threads here but it doesn't seem to be a top priority.

If you guys have any topic suggestions, send them along. Rollingwave has some good ones. Maybe I'll use one of those.

Crisp to Cubs?

Our friends at MVN’s Cub Reporter are reporting on radio reports in Chicago that there is talk of sending Coco Crisp to Chicago for pitcher Jason Marquis and outfielder Sam Fuld (who hails from Durham, NH, home of my alma mater the University of New Hampshire).

Colon, Marquis, Ponson?

Danny had this quote from a BP article, on the main board:

Bartolo Colon has looked so good in Boston’s camp after a so-so performance in winter ball in his native Dominican Republic that the Red Sox are considering using him as the fifth starter and having top prospect [Clay] Buchholz begin the season at Triple-A Pawtucket.

Has anyone seen Buchholz? Based on his numbers, Buchholz has been hit pretty hard, but that could mean anything, or nothing.

According to the Globe, Beckett had back spasms, and may not be ready for the trip to Japan. Colon will have his first outing in a live game on Thursday.

Has anyone seen Buchholz? Based on his numbers, Buchholz has been hit pretty hard, but that could mean anything, or nothing.

His last outing was pretty good. He had 3 k's in 3 innings. I think he's just working on getting his arm in shape and mastering his stuff and not trying to get hitters out so much.

According to Projo, Colon almost certainly won't be ready for opening day. They also say that "All signs point to" Buc in the rotation to start the season.

I think BP's jumping the gun. Colon went awfully quickly from a guy who no one wanted to even try to starting the season in the rotation.

They won't need a 5th starter until 4/12. Not that that buys them a lot of time, but they don't need to decide on the #5 starter by opening day.

IIRC for the series in Japan they can carry 28 players on the MLB roster, only 25 of them being active for a given game. I suspect they'll carry 4 starters, 13 relievers, and 11 batters, inactivating 3 starting pitchers for any given game.

You can't? Canseco was basically a slap hitter and I wouldn't really hesitate to call Damon a slap hitter either. As much as you want Ellsbury to have 20 HR power, no one else thinks he does.

how about 12? that's how many pierre has for his career. pierre's season high? 3. ellsbury's major league total last year in 116 at bats? 3. i think it's fair to say that ellsbury already has significantly more power than pierre ... so can we stop with the juan pierre comparisons already? thanks.

i just want to point out that ellsbury has equalled juan pierre's career high in home runs for the 2nd straight season.

Just for fun, I took a look at Ellsbury's 162 average on BB-Ref: .339 BA, 18 HR, 52 SB, 0 CS. I checked PI to see if anyone has done anything like that over a full season. The only season I could find in which a player hit .330 with at least 15 HR, 50 SB and 5 or fewer CS was Tim Raines in 1987, maybe his best season.

I don't have any conclusions to make about this. It was a fun waste of time, though.