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It wasn't just that young man. My girls are a month old, and they make more sense than you do...
As an actual English teacher, I resent the fact that hangfire59 has gotten access to private information about my career and educational history.
That's not really fair though Phil. Everyone knows the twins aren't ordinary 1-month-olds. They've got special powers.
Of course!
They are Beulah fans as well, already!
I have kids who run around the living room with their World Champs caps on. Their world is a world in which the Red Sox always win. It's a beautiful thing. Faith and hope? Optimism? Under my roof, absolutely.
They'll eventually learn the World sucks. It's never too early to instill the fear and loathing into the little buggers.
sorry guys , didnt realize this was such an english sensitive group . can I make it up with an extra credit assignment ? jeez , what did you do here , become english teachers after failing the toll collectors test on the pike ? I promise to do better on the mid-term .
ME NO SPEAK ENGRISH!!! ENGRISH SO HAHD!!! L AND R SOUNDS SO DIFFICURT!!
i never expected arod to sign elsewhere. if he had signed elsewhere it would have been great news for the red sox ... for all the reasons mr. sg may or may not show (i ahvn't clicked the link). as it stands, nothing has changed.
1) The Red Sox still have the better team, as the statistical forecasts will show in March.
2) Even if the Yankees win the division that doesn't keep us out of the playoffs.
3) The odds of actually meeting the Yankees in the ALCS is never greater than 1:3, even if we take it as a given that both teams will make the playoffs.
Signing ARod was great news for Yankees fans but largely irrelevant to the Red Sox. With any luck 2008 will give us another chance to make fun of the $200M losers.
Red Sox starters: 0.282/0.370/0.458
Yankees starters: 0.284/0.373/0.460 (I used Giambi, not Betemit, and used the CHONE PT projections)
We should be able to keep pace with them offensively this year, and I definitely prefer our pitching.
Signing ARod was great news for Yankees fans but largely irrelevant to the Red Sox. With any luck 2008 will give us another chance to make fun of the $200M losers.I still can't see it as irrelevant, but that's probably because I really value the Sox winning the division. But there are other considerations too: facing ARod 19 times/season, home field advantage in the playoffs, wanting the Yankees to go down in flames, etc.
I still think the Chone projections you guys are giving are way too optimistic. This year the Yankees hit .293/.363/.463 and we're supposed to expect that either of these teams are going to be better than that? There is just too much optimism in the number of games that starters will play, especially for SG's Yankee projection. Looking at the Yankees' numbers from last year, it's amazing how healthy they were on the hitting side.
No, we're supposed to expect that the STARTERS on each team will be better than that. For the Yankees, that indicates a substantial decline from 2007. CHONE has the Red Sox starters matching their 2007 numbers pretty closely. I haven't looked carefully at the details of who is expected to improve and who is expected to decline, but it isn't projecting anything special for Ellsbury.
There is just too much optimism in the number of games that starters will play, especially for SG's Yankee projection.
Yes, I used to make that same error in my own PT projections ten years ago, which is why I cited averages for the starting lineup rather than something more comprehensive. The CHONE projections are intended to take an optimistic view on the PT, so don't fault that conscious choice. SG also fails to account for a lower OBP from the Yankees cutting into the number of PA. He ought to be matching the number of outs available, not the number of PA. My best guess right now is that both teams will end up in the 850 to 900 run range. When you have an older team and you make no major additions in a given year, you should expect decline.
If you don't project for playing time, how can you project the effects of playing time on the projections? The amount of playing time a player receives has to have SOME impact on his projections/stats.
You do have to project playing time, of course, when estimating team run scoring. It's just a lot of work to get it right. SG was wildly optimistic in his projections (600 PA for every one of the Yankees starters except at first base). I didn't care enough to put in the half hour necessary to come up with something sensible, especially since the composition of the bench has yet to be determined. As mentioned before, the CHONE projection of PT is intended to be optimistic. The PECOTAs take a more cautious view of playing time, at least until BP rewrites them for their fantasy projections, but they aren't available yet.
Playing time probably has an impact on a player's averages, particularly if used in a platoon role, but this is a "second order" effect and ultimately makes less of a difference on a team's totals than you might think.
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