Umm, those Papelbon numbers are funky bc of his first year as a starter. Real numbers, still remarkable: 78Ks, 15BBs, 66 IPs, and 38 saves on average over the past 4 years.

I don't know, that 103 wins feels pretty light to me. I think you'd have to expect 110-112. Breaking the single season record is within reach of course but a couple of things have to break right so I'll keep my forecast conservative at 110.

My system also shows Adrian Beltre reverting back to his 2004 form, eerily duplicating his 2004 numbers exactly (334/388/629) after finally getting his swing straightened out with legendary Red Sox hitting coach whatshisname.

.344/.388/.629 seems low. That was from out West where the offenses aren't too good, and Fenway tends to inflate offense. You should probably add about 10% to the avg and obp (but maybe only like 5% for slg since 2004 was kind of a good year for him.)

Finally, CFBPS says the Yankees suck.

But that's exactly the same forecast as last year!

this shiz will be like gold when it comes time for my fantasy draft!

And I'm still waiting for the mainframe to finish the 10¹⁰⁰⁰⁰th season simulation, but I can tell you that David Ortiz is going have year that would make Babe Ruth absolutely crap his pants and attempt to claw his way back into his mother's womb in fear.

EDIT: dammit, that superscript worked in preview!

This year Jason Varitek is going to be so good, even Matt Wieters's godlike performance will only look like 2009 Jason Varitek in comparison. And Varitek will throw out Matt Wieters while he's trying to throw out Jason Varitek.

It's gonna be an awesome year.

320/396/510 – 27 HR, 130 R, GG

I think Dustin could become as good a hitter as Nomar was during his peak, but it would be more along the lines of .350/.410/.510 20 HR.

I'm laughing but I'm also feeling 8.9 percent more optimistic about the Sox then I was five minutes ago, according to HIPTS. (Homer Index of Perceived Team Strength)

And Varitek will throw out Matt Wieters while he's trying to throw out Jason Varitek.

I laughed.

These remind me of my own projections, Batter Overall Metric Projections (BOMPs) and Pitcher Overall Metric Projections (POMPs). The hallmark of BOMPs and POMPs is taking radical stances on players about which I have strong feelings. To wit:

Kevin Youkilis: 163 G, .391 / .543 / .816 (note that Youk plays 163 games despite the fact that the Red Sox play just 162)
Mark Teixeira: 130 G, .222/ .241 / .309

Tim Wakefield: 309 IP, 347 K, 2.45 ERA, 31-1
Andy Pettitte: syphlitic blindness

Dustin Pedroia: 162 G, .344 / .436 / .604
Derek Jeter: dies

I like this system!

Bill Hall: .310/ .410./ .610, plus he's the 1st-time winner of the new Utility Man Gold Glove, The Gil McDougal Award, for his so-spectacular multi-position "D", that the award is 1st suggested by HOF'er Jim Rice on the post game show, and later instituted by Bud Selig!

#14 Should be called the Ty Cobb award since we all know he could have been great at any position. If he had wanted to be.

Matt keeps tweaking this system and I think this year he's messed it up. Pedroia's going to hit .320? Really? The guy already hit .326. CFBPS is supposed to recognize that past performance is the floor for future performance. Same goes for Ortiz wussing out with a .284 average and less than 50 HR. Pfft. Also, 3 losses for Lester? Puuuhhllleeaazze.

And shouldn't CFBPS be weighing in on how Iglesias will be winning the starting SS job in the spring, then making ARod look like a chump?

Not participating this year.

Kevin Youkilis: 163 G, .391 / .543 / .816 (note that Youk plays 163 games despite the fact that the Red Sox play just 162)

He's traded to the Orioles for a PTBNL on a day the Sox have off and the O's play the MFY's. He goes 4/4 with 2 walks, 4 XBH's and 9 RBI to lead his new club to a huge win as Baltimore boatraces NYY 14-3. Unsurprisingly, the PTBNL turns out to be Youkilis as he rejoins Boston the next day (after high-fiving Wieters).

Best thread of the year. Atta boy, MCoA.

MCoA, the paragraph on Papelbon is some fine work.

Best thread of the year. Atta boy, MCoA.

Sarcasm, nepotism guy?

Applying the CFBPS to Jeremy Hermida we find that that his poor numbers the last two seasons are the result of injuries and contain no predictive value. He was clearly still getting his feet wet in 2006 and his 700 OPS that year can also be thrown out. That learning process continued into the first half of 2007 (and he was obviously hiding an injury or, um, something) so his 744 OPS doesn't have any bearing on the player he is today. His 340/401/555 second half line is therefore the "true" Hermida and can be used as a baseline from which to project. After accounting for park effects (his three year home/road OPS split is 164 points) and the natural growth that will have occurred since his age 23 season we can conservatively project Hermida to hit 370/460/640 in 2010. Sox fans should expect numbers similar to Coors-era Larry Walker, his number one comp on the list I just made up.

[/EricVan]

Breaking News

CFBPS just twittered the following: An latin or white slugger between 5'10" and 6'4" will be traded to the Sox in the last three weeks of July and finish the year playing a superb corner infield or outfield position or DH while hitting 18 home runs at a .334/.371/.592 clip.

General Manager Theo Epstein commented, "This guy will be playing with his [expletive] on fire. He will really come in here and give our guys a jolt. It may be one of those two-month rental type of deals."

a .334/.371/.592 clip

Did we put Juan Gonzalez in a time machine and bring him here from 1996?

Also, Marco Scutaro is the new Bill Mueller. 51 doubles and a .321/.408/.502 line (.348/.430/.552 at Fenway).

I went to run a CFBPS on Jonathan Papelbon, and I got some strange results. It said he would put up a 1.84 ERA in 75 IP, with 38 saves and an 87/19 strikeout to walk ratio. I thought, “that seems unrealistic.” So I went into the inner mechanical workings of CFBPS, fiddled with the dials and flipped a few switches, when I noticed there was a bug. Instead of projecting Papelbon, the system had just gone to his baseball-reference page and spat back Papelbon’s career averages. I’ll have to get you Papelbon’s official CFBPS numbers later.

Papelbon was quoted today that abandoning his splitter in 2009 was a mistake, and that he'll return to it this year. So, I assume you plug that into CFBPS and you'll get an 0.01 ERA... conservatively.

Papelbon was quoted today that abandoning his splitter in 2009 was a mistake, and that he'll return to it this year. So, I assume you plug that into CFBPS and you'll get an 0.01 ERA... conservatively.

No, no, he was hurt, and he lost his command. I know, I read it on a website.

I have a spreadsheet right here that says Papelbon is going to go 0-6, 11.50 in 18 IP and have labrum surgery in July, but all that's after Theo ends Spring Training by trading him, Lars Anderson, and a 22-year-old A-Ball LOOGY for Zach Greinke, who goes 29-0, 0.96.

Looking over the numbers, it seems you are underestimating the Sox and overestimating the Yankees. You'd better go over the numbers again to remove the Yankees bias.

Can we get a total pitch count on Dice-K's 206 IP? Will it be over or under 10,000?

Should be called the Ty Cobb award since we all know he could have been great at any position. If he had wanted to be.

Also, Pedroia will win the Ichiro Award, given for theoretical home runs that a batter chose to help his team by not hitting.