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BB/BF 9.1% 13.7%Called strike % 30% 16%
BF/IP 4.27 4.27
P/PA 4.0 4.0
Contact on swing % 76% 76%
BABIP .301 .249
BABIP runners on .272 .232
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LD% 18.0% 17.6%
IF/FB 10.4% 14.1%
The numbers above the line are from BB-Ref; below, from THT.
So... walks are up, called strikes are down. That could mean:
a. He's getting the close calls less often.
b. He's missing the strike zone more often, in an obvious way.
c. His strikes are catching the heart of the plate more often.
(Some of these could be seen as saying the same thing, but I didn't intend it that way. The first is an umpiring thing; the second, his bad pitches are getting worse; the third, his good pitches are becoming too hitter-friendly.)
Given that his LD% is a little lower and his contact rate is the same, I reject c.
The jump in IF/FB rate (from "average" to "among the best") would help to explain his lower BABIP and HR rate, what with infield flies being among the easiest balls to convert to outs. How does this relate to his walk rate? One thought is that maybe he's getting more rise on his fastball, which on high pitches is potentially consistent with a and b. If that's true, I'd expect some of his BABIP improvement to remain.
Some players are "so underrated they're overrated", or vice versa. With Dice-K, he's so very nongood he's actually quite unbad.
Although when he's pitching game 3 of the division series against the Angels, and he's thrown 87 picthes and walked 5 guys through 4 innings, I'm sure I'll be pulling my hair out again.
e e cummings is on line 2, demanding royalties.
Those are certainly the numbers that matter to him. The point of pitching isn't to see how few walks you can get. I would not discount the possibility that he knows what he's doing.
Sure. But I think the point people are trying to make is that the batting average on balls put into play against Matsuzaka is incredibly low, to the point where the most likely explanation is that he's been very lucky. Knuckelballers don't even normally allow a batting average on balls in play as low as .250.
You can't walk that many people and get away with it unless you're a Nolan Ryan, and he's not.
You are probably right. But it's also reasonable to think that a pitcher with good stuff and pretty good control who took the approach that he was not going to give good pitches to hit, even if it meant giving up a ton of walks, would have a low BABIP. I can't think of any comparable pitchers who are trying that approach.
He probably has been lucky. But it's at least possible that you are watching an intelligent, talented pitcher who has decided he can be most effective if he stops worrying about whether he drives Phil, Biff and Tito crazy.
- Matsuzaka has a more consistent release point this year.
- He's putting more pitches up in the zone, and fewer in the heart of the zone.
- He's making greater use of his slider, and less use of his changeup.
- He's also making greater use of fastballs with movement.
- Because of that, his fastball location is far less consistent.
All of this was from looking at a handful of games this year vs. last year, and the 2007 graphs are much more limited than the 2008, so it's a relatively small sample size. And it's my own interpretation of what I saw; YMMV.
I don't expect a .249 BABIP to hold up. But it seems that it's not all luck, and that he will continue to frustrate y'all to more wins. Try to enjoy this.
Nolan Ryan had a career opponents' BABIP of .269. Granted, Matsuzaka probably has somewhat better command than Ryan had for a lot of his career, but definitely does have as good stuff. Ryan spent most of his career pitching games scheduled for twilight in Anaheim or in the Astrodome in front of fast outfielders, and spent his career trying to throw unhittable pitches. I think even .275 in Fenway for a BABIP is unsustainable, even with the vastly improved defensive team they've put out there the last few years. I just have a hard time believing that any conventional pitcher could be tougher than Ryan for BABIP.
Probably a bit higher than that. His component ERA is something like 4.10. At a .280 BABIP he'd probably be a bit better than that. I take your point, though - the issue is between whether he's an above average pitcher or an ace.
Watching Dice, I don't see a guy who's deciding to be extra careful. I see a guy who often cannot locate his pitches at all. He seems to bear down in tough situations, but I wouldn't want to count on that continuing.
Remy & Orsillo were joking that Dice-K should pretend he's always pitching w/ runners on base. Maybe he shd also pretend that every hitter's got a 3-2 count.
After he escaped that bases loaded jam beginning with the Mora K - that was it for me - I barely watched any more - he drains me of all baseball life - every single time!
I've been telling myself this all season and dammit if the guy hasn't defied regression to the mean, Darren.
Sorry, pet peeve.
Anyway, my feeling is that Dice's current ERA is a fluke that could correct at any second. That's totally intuitive. If he pitches the same way next year as he has this year, you'll probably see that home run rate come back up and the ERA spike above last year's level. The man needs to make some adjustments.
49 IP, 39 H, 15 R, 25 BB, 51 K, 3 HR - 2.57 ERA, FIP in the 3.4 range.
He's still outperforming expected numbers, but it's actually his component numbers that have moved toward his run prevention numbers, not vice versa.
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