BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Dustin Pedroia: A Year Ago and Today

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Sunday, September 07, 2008

Dustin Pedroia: A Year Ago and Today

In the course of the discussion of Dustin Pedroia’s MVP chances, there has been some debate over whether Pedroia is a true talent .330 hitter right now or a guy who’s playing over his head. The consensus seems to be that the latter is the case, which makes sense given that a) there are very few guys who are true-talent .330 hitters, and b) Pedroia’s track record doesn’t make it look like he’s one of them. But there is one interesting tidbit of information that may indicate that Pedroia is one of these rare talents.

At the conclusion of the 2007 season, it was revealed that the little guy had played the end of the season with a broken bone in his hand. After reading about the approximate timing of the injury, my best guess for when it happened was ~September 4. The 4th was Pedroia’s 5th straight multi-hit game, and then he was inexplicably sat down on the 5th. For the rest of the season, he hit .261 .298 .398. Prior to that, Pedroia’s line was .329 .396 .451.

So over the past 2 years, when Pedroia has played without a broken hand, his lines are:

.329 .396 .451
.330 .377 .503

That’s in more than 1,000 PA. I still think his career .314 average is a better indicator of what he is, but there’s at least some reason to think that it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Darren Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:47 AM | 27 comment(s)
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1. tfbg9 Posted: September 07, 2008 at 11:24 AM (#2931722)

Yeah that's all well and good, but Wake sucks.

2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 07, 2008 at 11:50 AM (#2931733)

Pedroia's on-contact BA is .360 and his BABIP is .341, both of which are high, but nothing special. When you never strike out, high averages aren't that hard to accompish.

There aren't many .330 hitters in baseball history (accounting for context of era), but I wouldn't bet against Pedroia knocking out a run of .320 seasons, assuming reasonable heath.

EDIT: obviously, what's hard is managing to strike out rarely while making good contact in the non-K at-bats, but I think we've seen enough of Pedroia to say that's precisely where his skills lie. I just wanted to put some numbers to the case that Pedroia's skill set allows him to hit for high averages without particularly freakish component stats.

3. PJ Martinez Posted: September 07, 2008 at 12:13 PM (#2931735)

If Quentin is out for the season, then the MVP will almost certainly come from the Twins (Mourneau or Mauer) or the Red Sox (Pedroia or Youkilis), right? Unless K-Rod pulls it out, I suppose, but that would seem unlikely given that he probably won't even win the Cy Young.

4. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: September 07, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#2931746)

Yeah that's all well and good, but Wake sucks.

So does your mom.

5. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: September 07, 2008 at 12:52 PM (#2931748)

As for Pedroia, I can actually think of another reason why he could possibly be a true talent .330 or better. His April's suck. Which particularly in his Rookie year I think is excusable. New league, new pitchers etc...

If I had to guess, I'd say he's probably a .320-.330 true talent hitter. But if he ever gets off to a good start, I could see him breaking .350 in a good year.

6. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:48 PM (#2931783)

There aren't many .330 hitters in baseball history (accounting for context of era), but I wouldn't bet against Pedroia knocking out a run of .320 seasons, assuming reasonable heath.

So you think he might have a season as good a Cano's a few years ago.

Sorry, I am not even a Yankee fan.

7. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: September 07, 2008 at 01:53 PM (#2931785)

I was thinking the same thing.

I've said it in other threads; Pedroia's having a great season, and he's hitting everything right now.

But hard as it is to avoid, comparing him to the all-time greats or speculating that he'll do this over and over again is both likely to make us look stupid and is unfair to him.

Let's see him do this again in a full season, without cherry-picking his stats.

8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2931930)

He had a broken hand. That isn't cherry-picking.

Also, Pedroia hit .317 last year, and .330 this year. Robinson Cano looked like a heckuva player going into this season, and everyone agreed about that. The fact that he inexplicably cratered is not predictive for anyone else.

9. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2931958)

Encarta says that cherry-picking is: the activity of pursuing the most lucrative, advantageous, or profitable among various options and leaving the less attractive ones for others.

Taking his good stats from when he was healthy and throwing them out for when he was not healthy is cherry-picking.

The fact that very, very few MLB players hit .315 every year for their careers is the predictive bit. Any breathless proclamations about Cano were premature, and same goes for Dusty.

10. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: September 07, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2931998)

If we're trying to figure out what his likely future numbers look like, then to a degree it is cherry-picking; we can't assume that he's going to be completely healthy all the time. The percentage of the time he'll be playing hurt is unlikely to be completely accurate, which is partly a function of the small sample size and partly a function of the fact that injuries don't happen with any regularity; but there will, very likely, be a percentage of the time when he's playing hurt.

On the other hand, if we're trying to figure out what he's capable of when he's healthy, then I don't see that it's cherry-picking to throw out or at least discount somewhat the times when he isn't healthy. "What will Pedroia hit next year?" is a different question than "What would Pedroia hit next year if he stayed healthy all season?"

11. kevin Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2932014)

The fact that very, very few MLB players hit .315 every year for their careers is the predictive bit. Any breathless proclamations about Cano were premature, and same goes for Dusty.

Nevertheless, let's stop comparing Cano to Pedroia. Cano can't hold Pedroia's jockstrap in any phase of the game.

12. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:09 PM (#2932024)

If you think I'm comparing the abilities of Cano and Pedroia here, k, I suggest you read again.

If you think I'm comparing the hype and projection between them, you're exactly right.

13. The Clarence Thomas of BTF (scott) Posted: September 07, 2008 at 04:39 PM (#2932088)

Nevertheless, let's stop comparing Cano to Pedroia. Cano can't hold Pedroia's jockstrap in any phase of the game.

i'd laugh if Cano had a better year than Pedroia next year. Then i'd cry, because i root for the Red Sox.

14. tjm1 Posted: September 07, 2008 at 05:25 PM (#2932149)

Cano and Pedroia are both among the top 20 hitters of all time for 23-24 year old 2Bs. Pedroia's better defensively. I wouldn't write off Cano just yet. Lots of guys have an off year, then come back from it.

I think the more interesting question about Pedroia's development this year is the increase in home run number. Lots of guys go from .315 or so to .330 or so. That's 10 hits a year of difference. Pedroia's more than doubled his home run output this year. While a lot of guys who hit a lot of doubles eventually develop home run power, I never thought he'd get under the ball well enough to hit more than 10-12 homers a year. I'm more confident that he'll have a few years where he hits .340 than that he'll have another year where he hits 20 homers. Don't get me wrong - he doesn't need to hit more than 10-12 homers a year to be a deserving perennial all-star.

15. konaforever Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:03 PM (#2932183)

Cano is hanging on to his .400 slugging pct by a thread, and now has a sub .300 OBP. Ouch.

AVG OBP SLG
.264 ..299 .402

16. PJ Martinez Posted: September 07, 2008 at 06:43 PM (#2932201)

Watching Cano in the field, he occasionally seems to lose focus. I wonder if he's distracted more generally this year. Maybe the contract took away some of his motivation, then he got off to a bad start, then the Yankees fell way behind and the clubhouse may have become lethargic, etc.

I expect him to bounce back quite a bit next year. His second and third years were very good (and his first year was also good).

17. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: September 07, 2008 at 08:51 PM (#2932325)

I think Cano either has ADHD or is just a dumbass. I also think Bowa did a great job keeping him focused and made sure he worked hard.

Coming into this year I would have taken Cano, but right now it's not even close and I don't think that will change until/unless they can find someone else to get through to him.

18. Marcel Posted: September 07, 2008 at 09:58 PM (#2932469)

19. chris p Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:07 PM (#2932480)

when pedroia finds a pitch he can't hit, then he can learn "discipline".

20. Joe C isn't Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:14 PM (#2932492)

Is anyone else concerned about the drop-off in plate discipline by Pedroia this year? His walk rate, which was only average to begin with, has dropped by nearly 2%. That's not going to be good enough to keep him in the lineup if his BABIP ever drops close to the .300 mark.

I don't think his plate "discipline" is bad, per se. He does have a 44/47 BB/K ratio, which is of course excellent, and his walk rate isn't Randall SImonesque or anything. He's just great at making contact - if he gets a strike, he's probably going to put it in play. That doesn't necessarily mean he has poor discipline. Even if he hits only .290-.300 or so, he'll still be valuable enough, and outside of the unforseen or just an odd bad year he might have, I don't see his average dropping much below that for quite a while.

21. JPWF13 Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:18 PM (#2932503)

Is anyone else concerned about the drop-off in plate discipline by Pedroia this year? His walk rate, which was only average to begin with, has dropped by nearly 2%

...........um no?

22. Marmaduchscherer Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:27 PM (#2932523)

Dustin Pedroia's true talent (via Marcel) is .313/.372/.466. That's excellent enough; there's no need even for fanboys to cherry pick stats to make him look better.

23. alskor Posted: September 07, 2008 at 11:32 PM (#2932633)

Cano and Pedroia are both among the top 20 hitters of all time for 23-24 year old 2Bs. Pedroia's better defensively. I wouldn't write off Cano just yet. Lots of guys have an off year, then come back from it.

I think the more interesting question about Pedroia's development this year is the increase in home run number. Lots of guys go from .315 or so to .330 or so. That's 10 hits a year of difference. Pedroia's more than doubled his home run output this year. While a lot of guys who hit a lot of doubles eventually develop home run power, I never thought he'd get under the ball well enough to hit more than 10-12 homers a year. I'm more confident that he'll have a few years where he hits .340 than that he'll have another year where he hits 20 homers. Don't get me wrong - he doesn't need to hit more than 10-12 homers a year to be a deserving perennial all-star.

Something that has been ignored is that Pedroia actually had hamate surgery in the offseason - which should have tapped his power!

24. Dave Cyprian Posted: September 08, 2008 at 12:07 PM (#2932870)

Can he throw touchdowns?!?

25. Darren Posted: September 10, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2935992)

I don't agree with Erik that I pursued the most lucrative, advantageous, or profitable among various options for Pedroia. There were plenty of other splits I could have done to make Pedroia look even better. I was choosing one based on a known injury.

What I did do, though, was leave off his miserable 2006 numbers and there was no really good rationale for that.

26. Chuck Van Den Corput Posted: September 15, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#2942318)

I don't think his plate "discipline" is bad, per se. He does have a 44/47 BB/K ratio, which is of course excellent, and his walk rate isn't Randall SImonesque or anything. He's just great at making contact - if he gets a strike, he's probably going to put it in play. That doesn't necessarily mean he has poor discipline.

I agree with this. Players of a certain profile -- say Dunn, Thome, Giambi, etc. -- often "see" a great deal of pitches. I imagine that their at-bats last as long as they do because they swing and miss so often. They don't necessarily intend for their at-bats to last so long, not if they are swinging at the second or third pitch. Were they making contact a little more frequently, their walk rates would surely drop and their "discipline" might not look as impressive.

27. Joe C isn't Posted: September 15, 2008 at 04:16 PM (#2942431)

I agree with this. Players of a certain profile -- say Dunn, Thome, Giambi, etc. -- often "see" a great deal of pitches. I imagine that their at-bats last as long as they do because they swing and miss so often. They don't necessarily intend for their at-bats to last so long, not if they are swinging at the second or third pitch. Were they making contact a little more frequently, their walk rates would surely drop and their "discipline" might not look as impressive.

Further to this point, Pedroia has a 23/13 BB/K in since the break, which is about a league average walk rate. Paired with the fact that he's hit .352 with power over that period, and the lack of Ks, well - let's just say Pedroia's plate discipline falls somewhere below Papelbon's "issue" on the "items of concern for the 2008 Red Sox" list.

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Dustin Pedroia: A Year Ago and Today

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