Finally, Something to Obsess Over: The Johan Question
This offseason was shaping up as one of the most relaxing in recent history. The Red Sox were coming off of a World Championship, and unlike 2004, there weren’t a bunch of players ready to depart via free agency. The only loose ends, Curt Schilling and Mike Lowell, were quickly re-signed to reasonable deals, and the team was pretty much ready for another run in 2008. Sure, there was the question of what to do with our extra CF and adding another good arm in the pen would probably be wise, but overall nothing terribly pressing.
There was certainly not anything like the ARod trade that wasn’t, the many Manny trade demands, or the Dice-K drama to worry about… until a few days ago. That’s when adding Johan Santana started to become a real possibility. And here we have it, our first big fat drama of the 2007-2008 offseason.
What should the Red Sox be willing to give up for Santana? Frankly, I can’t figure it out. I can say that 1 year of Johan is probably worth only a couple B prospects. I can also say that getting Johan and having him locked up to a 5-6 year deal at market value is worth a bit more, but not a ton more. What I can’t put my finger on is the value of getting the chance to negotiate with a premier player. There’s no easy way to measure that against, say, six years of Clay Buchholz.
Probably the most complicating factor in this is that we just don’t know if and when premier players will again start testing the free agent markets. Right now, they all seem to re-up with their original teams because the offers they receive are great compared to past deals. The teams have plenty of money to make such offers because, as has been repeatedly discussed around these parts, they’re bringing in gobs of cash and paying relatively little to their players. But someday, and perhaps it will be soon, some of the top players are going to say “Hey, look. Torii Hunter just got 5/90. And Alfonso Soriano got 8/136 last year. And they’re only pretty good players who are over 30. What would I, Joe Superstar, get if I put myself out there?” I can only imagine that that day is coming very soon, but who knows?
Darren
Posted: November 29, 2007 at 11:17 PM |
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Nah, they're doing it because in their eyes the Red Sox are becoming like the Yankees they'd already learned to hate. Yeah, there are still plenty of differences between the two teams, some substantive and others not. But just from the "Aw, come on, give us a friggin' chance" point of view, they're much the same. In 2007 the Red Sox were all but coronated division champion by the end of May; they spent the rest of the regular season getting ready for October; they then went 11-3 against some of the best teams in the game. It's not even two months later and they're potentially trading for the best pitcher in the game, to fill a vacancy they don't even have.
If I weren't a Red Sox fan I'd hate the Red Sox right now. I'd be damned jealous of the fact that they have a good MLB track record of late and have the prospects to make a deal for Santana - not just one deal, but several permutations of deals. Heck, they don't even have to put their best prospects on the block because they have so many viable players to offer up in trade. It'd be irritating that a number their fans continue to suggest everyone should like them because they're not the Yankees, as though everyone should be thankful they're getting beaten to a pulp by a different bully.
As silly as it is for people to suggest Jon Daly is a bandwagoner, it's just as silly to suggest that fans of other teams don't have a point. They might not express their emotions very well, but they have all kinds of reasons to hate the Red Sox right now, and even more if this trade goes through.
Braves 11, Yankees 10, Indians 7, Cardinals 6, Twins 4, A's 4, Astros 4, D'backs 4, Padres 4, Angels 3, Mariners 3, Rangers 3, Giants 3, White Sox 2, Dodgers 2, Cubs 2
Same number of World Series victories as the Marlins, not exactly a dynasty.
People are reacting to the $$$ and the news coverage they receive, especially the high-profile signing of Matsuzaka and the current "chase" for Santana. The actual results haven't been all that impressive yet. And while the Santana trade as constituted would improve the team in 2008-2009, I'm not sure it makes them any more competitive long-term unless the budget ceiling is lifted as well. There will be SOME free agents on the market over the next few years, just not many. I'd rather save the budget flexibility and enjoy the kids for a couple years.
All those whiners from other teams can go to hell. Most of them root for teams with more recent success than the Red Sox. They enjoyed their day in the sun, now they want to deny it to Boston fans.
vi is usually on the money but he's never been quite so on the money than he is here.
GGC, if your emotional balance is even being partially by how the other fans feel about your team, then you are going to be one unhappy hombre.
Just enjoy the ride and see the derision for what it is, equal parts frustration and jealousy.
The Red Sox are the last team to win the World Series, and the last team to win two World Series.
I'm with Daly. Let 'em all kiss my as$.
I think that's the appropriate response. The feelings of other fans are legitimate, but I'm not rooting for the Red Sox based on how other people feel about them. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the ride.
Is there any reason to think that it has to be Phil?
GGC thought the 'fans of other teams' was referring to him. It was actually referring to GGC's belief that a Santana deal would generate hatred from other fans.
Or am I missing something?
Sure, if it was Pedroia.
2 kids is feeling like enough already. :(
7-0 baby!!
Are you suggesting that Wok should impregnate Phil's wife?
BTW, how are Dustina and Jacobia doing anyway, Phil?
I can see blocking NYY from getting him (and it looks like that's not going to happen), but there's not much marginal benefit from winning games 104 games as opposed to winning 100, is there? Or am I wearing kevin's glasses and overestimating team strength?
As for 196, I'd rather be disliked for my political beliefs or my non-willingness to embrace the entire BPro outlook on baseball or my views on steroids or something. That's something I can deal with. I may not like the Yankees, but that doesn't preclude me from liking alot of their fans.
It's easy, and accurate, to point to the Yankees and their $200 M payroll and say we have to spend to keep up. It's also accurate to point to a number of other teams and know they could be spending more or doing a better job of increasing revenues like Henry, Lucchino etc.
At the same time, those $50 M payroll teams are significantly handicapped compared to the Red Sox, whether by choice or by market. That is a legitimate gripe, regardless if the griper can't seem to understand that the actual difference in payroll between the Yankees and Red Sox is considerable.
If the Sox acquire Santana, it won't be just because they have got the prospects to make a deal happen, but because they have the cash to pay him, cash that many of the other teams don't have/are unwilling to spend. Consequently, it puts us a little further away from the rest of baseball.
I can understand the arguments for Santana. And I can see wanting to compile a truly great team. But I would rather the next Red Sox WS victory be built on the backs of Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia (or some future set of homegrown types) because the more of those homegrown stars present to deliver the victory, the more it would feel like we were winning a contest on equal footing with the rest of baseball. That to me would be far more satisfying.
The pitching should also be improved. I expect Matsuzaka to be better the second time through, Buchholz to be a strong contributor, and Lester to make incremental progress. Keeping Tavarez out of the rotation is an immediate boost. The big risk here is post-World-Series letdown, and management seems to be approaching that with eyes wide open (and six quality starters). If it is humanly possible to address that issue, they will do so.
Finally, they had a Pythagorean expectation of 101 wins last year. Barring major injury, they might improve that a win or two. No guarantee, but 100 wins is easily within reach.
And yes, Santana is a three to four win improvement over Lester. Lester's projections won't be pretty, partly because they factor in months in which he was suffering from cancer or rehabbing (August 2006, May-July 2007). Hard to pin him down under the circumstances but I'm definitely looking for an ERA under 5.
Is it worth spending $25M (plus additional prospects) for a three to four win improvement? Likely less than that from 2009-2012? Seems a lot to me, in a world where ARod signs for less than $30M, but I'm sure some will argue that even a small improvement is worth it at any cost.
No, not Wok necessarily.
They are great thanks, kevin.
Victoria is hooked on Law & Order, while Eleanor loves Seinfeld.
They are 50/50 on the possible Johan trade. One day Eleanor thinks, "yeh, lets do it" while Victoria likes the kids playing for the Red Sox for a few more years yet.
Don't know If I am keen to either. 2 kids is enough!
Even so, she shows potential!
If I ever had twins that I couldn't raise and Primates were volunteering to adopt, I'd send one to Darren to raise, and one to Levski to raise, just to see how they'd turn out.
They love all TV it seems, except Steven A Smith. When he starts shouting they start crying...
I wonder if Omar Minaya will have a job in 3-4 years, when the girls will be old enough to analyze trades and take the piss out of him....
A few Red Sox and Yankee fans have more or less said as much--the hell with it, we would rather keep our own guys--and I noted that the first comment by Darren, the Captain of the Red Sox BTF forces, was "Sure, the Red Sox will listen if the Twins call about Johan."
If, as we have been led to believe, Epstein will not include Ellsbury and Lester in a deal, and Cashman refused to include Hughes and Kennedy, I think it is clear that acquiring Santana doesn't matter all that much to them. Lester is a nice young pitcher, but he will never be as good as Santana and without him the Red Sox still have Beckett and Buchholz--and of course would have Santana. Ellsbury will be an all-star type player, IMO, but he is already 24 and far from irreplaceable. Lowrie is a B prospect with no job open for him. If Ellsbury were gone, Crisp would be an OK short-term option in CF; Mike Cameron is still available and with Andruw Jones taking a two-year deal and Cameron facing a drug suspension, I expect the price would be reasonable. According to many sources--not just Yankee fanboys and mouthpieces, but presumably unbiased sources, such as Kevin Goldstein--the Yankees have a lot of good young pitching prospects. If this is true, Ian Kennedy should not be a dealbreaker for a true #1 starter the Yankees really need. Melky Cabrera is OK and cheap, but the Yankees could presumably get Cameron, Rowand or even Patterson to cover CF for a couple of years, or as they have in the past, just screw defense and put Damon back in CF.
So, I think if you really want Santana, these guys are not deal breakers. And now, Coletti is talking up Matt Kemp and the Dodger prospects in the same vein, according to the new Bedard thread.
As to whether this is the right decision, only time, of course, will tell. I am a big believer in limiting investment in the free agent market and keeping prospects. However, I think you make exceptions to those rules when:
You have a very specific hole to fill that might mean a title
A superstar in his prime is available
This is why I think the Tigers did the right thing in triggering on the Miguel Cabrera trade. Yes, he is overweight. Yes, he will want a lot of money and may leave Detroit. But he is 24 years old and one of the true premier hitters in the game. I would rather have that than Miller and Maybin et al if I am trying to contend. I evaluate trades in part by asking, "How hard is it to get another guy about as valuable as this guy?" If I were Epstein, the chance to have Santana and Beckett at the top of my rotation, with Matsuzaka and Buchholz back of them, would be something to make happen. As to the Yankees, the massive commitments to the old gang means 2008 is a push year. I get Santana in my rotation and hope Alan Horne develops down the line to replace the great Ian Kennedy. Santana replaces the great Philip Hughes.
As to the fan culture issue, two points:
1. When you are not simply concerned with the team winning, and instead are focusing on the "most satisfying" way to win, that is a real sign your team has arrived.
2. People are going to hate the Red Sox no matter who they have or what they do. The Red Sox were never, at any time, any more "likable" than any other team, except maybe the Yankees, and that was based entirely on the WS drought, which has been blown to bits. Yes, the Yankees spend more money on the MLB payroll, but how much that really matters in terms of putting a winning team on the field is debatable when you are talking about 215 vs 160 with the ability to drop 51M on a posting fee. You add in Lucchino, Affleck, Cook, James, "RSN", the vocal fans wearing Varitek jerseys at stadiums around the country etc--the rubicon is crossed, and there is no going back. My unsolicited advice is to embrace it. People hating your team means that team is kicking ass.
Yup. We've seen both teams act decisively when they really want a player. In reading the tea leaves, I don't see the equivalent of the $51M posting fee for Matsuzaka, or the 30%-over-last-offer deal given to Damon. Some possible explanations:
1) They don't have the money to spend. For either team, trading for Santana is at least $25M more expensive than going with the rookies.
2) They believe they have more effective ways to spend the money to improve the team.
3) They have more faith in the prospects than you do.
I'm guessing at some combination of (2) and (3).
Hey vi, you weren't on Star Island, were you? If so, it is a very small world.
ha! are you one of them?
I can't find a hint of this on the internet.
was this some special EPSN radio thing that only you get through the tinfoil helmet?
Gammo didn't appear to think it was done, or at least he didn't when this was recorded.
Here's a paraphrase of Olney on the radio that may have been the report dirk heard (from SoSH):
Yes, I was. I will come back, I will come back.
If you were there when I was, you'd recognize me as the guy in the softball game who got caught in a rundown between third and home for an absurdly long time before finally making it back to third safely. Ripped open my ankle in the process. Whose idea was it to have a softball game on rock?
ha! are you one of them?
I'm neither of them, but it's hard not to pass up the opportunity.
he said it's done. i'm looking for verification online myself.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune was reporting on it. Not done.
Boston remains firm, though, as initially reported by the Pioneer Press, in offering just Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. The Red Sox are adamantly opposed to substituting Jacoby Ellsbury for Crisp, and that's the current holdup.
I'm getting sick of this. The longer it drags on, the more I worry that in a moment of weakness Theo will do something incredibly stupid like trading Lester *and* Ellsbury *and* Lowrie in the same package. Sickels' high opinion of Lowrie has me second-guessing even the lesser offer...
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