Aren't we all talking about next year? Your post #80 that kicked this whole thing off was talking about next year. And for next year, Ellsbury projects to an OBP in the range of .350...But if you think Ellsbury is that much worse than his projections, I'd like to hear why, what you think the numbers are missing.

I parsed it to save space, hope that's OK. I do think the numbers are a bit optimistic. Save a BABIP driven September he really wasn't particularly good after May and I'd like to see the improvement before handing him the leadoff spot.

I agree however that if he can hit that .350 OBP mark that he should be in the leadoff spot. No argument there.

I suppose my biggest complaint might be Ellsbury batting leadoff, but I wouldn't call it the primary one, as I see the problem as involving a bunch of little things. But let's start there. You're right that I might be a little more pessimistic on Ellsbury and optimistic on Drew than those projected OBPs (I'm assuming the .380 you referenced was Drew). I might buy the .030 mean spread, but Ellsbury's downside is much greater. Would you be more surprised if Drew put up a .340 OBP or Ellsbury a .310?

I also really like my no-power base stealers lower in the order, where the SB becomes a better play. I'd love to see Ellsbury on base in front of Lowrie, Lugo, or Kotsay, who are singles hitters, or Varitek, who, though not fitting the profile (low BA, high BB, "high" power), at least stinks sufficiently to steal in front of. That would be a lot of fun to watch, and a more productive use of Jacoby's skillset.

Next, it's not so much about moving Ellsbury down, as moving Drew up, because we're not talking about just a few spots. I think Drew is (when healthy) likely one of our best hitters. Getting the most PA out of your best hitters is more important than order strategy, and unfortunately, if last year's pattern holds, Drew could be as low as 7th. 7th to 1st is a pretty big difference. I am optimistic that one aspect of this (Lowell hitting in front of Bay and/or Drew) will change this year, but that's why I put it as "what we had last year."

Then there are the little things, all to minute to amount to anything on their own. But consider this in narrative fashion-

Ellsbury-Pedroia-Ortiz-Youk-Lowell-Bay-Drew
Super fast, decent OBP guy gets on base, might attempt steal if the good BA guy after him gets into a long count. If not, better stay put, since Ortiz might jack one. If he doesn't, another steal opportunity with Youk up, but still not a great idea. Youk gets on, Lowell promtly hits into DP. Next inning, Bay hits solo HR, Drew walks, and then we pray.

Compared to:
Pedroia-Drew-Youk-Ortiz-Bay-Ellsbury-Lowell(or switch Ells and Lowell if you like)-misc bad hitters
All of our best OBP (except Bay) is in front of Ortiz, with Bay serving as the classic second HR threat. Lowell is positioned well for his skills - he still gets to drive in runs, but he doesn't get the first chance, where the DP is more likely. Bay, and especially Ellsbury can really use their speed, and hopefully reduce Lowell's DPs. Most important, the obvious 5 best hitters get the most PA.

I'm pretty sure that the difference between those two lineups is worth more than a few runs over the course of a season (assuming normal projections, of course).

More importantly it trended in very much the wrong way and was only .325 after the Break last year.

This doesn't matter.

I'll try saying it more concisely: Last year's lineups were "dumb" and "obviously suboptimal" from a purely hypothetical, clubhouse-impact-neutral, in-game strategy point of view. There is nothing mutually exclusive about that and my belief that Francona has good reasons for those lineups, and that it's possible (even likely) that the season win total was higher using these "dumb" lineups than a strategically optimal one.

It's also more fun to discuss strategically optimal batting orders than trying to guess at clubhouse/comfort issues, because we can have reasonably informed arguments there, based on projections or subjective opinions about future performance.

For lack of another ST thread, I'll post some random topics here.

- Saito has been issued uniform # 24 (he asked Manny for his blessing first). Baldelli has uniform # 5. That leaves very few numbers left unused since fan favorites left. The longest idle times: 14 (1989), 21 (1996), and 45 (2004). With Rice making the HoF I'd expect a number retirement ceremony this year. So, which will be reissued first: 21 or 45?

- Youkilis shaved most of his chin. He left a tuft under his lip (the Mirabelli) and a Village People mustache. It's better, but only because it couldn't possibly have been worse.

- Andy Marte was designated for assignment.

Martin, 691 OPS
Salty, 725
Clement (889 in AAA)
Tek, 847

Updated ZiPS:

Martin: .273/.375/.384
Salty: .252/.318/.426
Clement: .256/.324/.435
Varitek: .238/.327/.440

Why did CLE DFA Marte?
They stuck with him being really crappy the last few years and now he is hitting .354 in AAA and they cut bait?
WTF?

Why did CLE DFA Marte?
They stuck with him being really crappy the last few years and now he is hitting .354 in AAA and they cut bait?
WTF?

villageidiom Posted: February 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3083638)

- Andy Marte was designated for assignment.

Duh. I'm an idiot. I didn't realize this whole thread had been Dialed

The unattainable Jeff Clement was traded today as part of a package. Salty has a 656 OPS and Martin's is 704.

Ah, digging up old threads, are we?

Miguel Montero, .818 OPS, 109 OPS+ (finally getting a chance to play - and just getting started)
Alberto Callaspo, .806 OPS, 114 OPS+ (finally getting a chance to play - and just getting started)

Of course, the Dbacks still have Eric Byrnes. And never got the chance to experience Julio Lugo.
Now, they also didn't want to experience Callaspo, unfortunately for them.

Which reminds me, the Red Sox may have a chance to trade for Chris Snyder this offseason.
He's a very good defensive catcher, will draw a decent number of walks, and has a reasonable contract.
Not sure if, let's say, Bowden will have any trade value left by that time, but the Sox have a deep farm system.

Chris Snyder sounds like a Met, not a Red Sox.

Not sure if, let's say, Bowden will have any trade value left by that time, but the Sox have a deep farm system.

Yes, because a young pitcher with a current 3.09 ERA in AAA barring Blassitis will all of a sudden have zero trade value in the offseason.

Either you poorly phrased that, or you're acting like a kont

His 3.09 ERA isn't as impressive when you have a second look at his peripherals.
Bowden certainly will have some trade value; it'll likely be a lot lower than it was a few months ago.
That's the risk you run with prospects, of course. It's hard to know when to hold them and when to fold them.

Got one. Sort of.

forget 1b, and catcher, Let's Find a Shortstop!