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Darren is saying it's the same now as it's been for the last decade. Meanwhile, the Globe has Tim McCarver saying the roles are reversed. Who are we to believe?
Yeah, OK, I know who to believe. Just testing.
Sure, bad things can happen. But I'm pretty happy with the season so far and with the outlook from here. Then again, I guess I always say that around this time of year ...
But enough about the Sox. To me, the thing that is different this year is the Yankees. They just aren't the same strike-fear-in-your-heart Yankees they have been in past years. Nothing about them scares me. There's no mystique and aura there this year.
I have this image of Manny playing LF for the Yankees next year and it doesn't bother me.
Joba/Beckett tonight is going to be such an awesome matchup, I can't wait to see it tonight. And of course, I'll be interested to see how Ortiz looks. He sure rocked AAA.
I'm chalking the Lester game up as a loss, so this game is pretty important for the Yanks.
Agreed, even with second half Cano, the Yanks are punting offense at either DH, LF, or first depending on where Giambi and Damon are playing. That's unacceptable for a team trying to come back on two of the three best teams in baseball. The offense will show some more balance I think now that the guys who hit for average (Jeter and Cano) are showing signs of life, but the need that extra bat and they can do that with out weakening the defense.
Of course, (a) I could be wrong about who the better team is, especially if Pontoon (that's funny!) and the 12-deep Yankee bullpen are for real, and (b) even if I'm right, you give the better team a 3 game head start and they still lose about as often as Kevin Cash gets a base hit.The Yankees haven't scared me in a "mystique" way in quite a long time, but I don't like watching mediocre pitchers take on the heart of that lineup. Especially given Beckett's deep ball proclivities, his occasional wildness in the zone, I'm not wildly optimistic about this matchup. And on the nights when Chamberlain is throwing strikes, he's got a case to be the best pitcher in the world.
Adding Papi back in to the Sox lineup will be damn sweet, though. Everything I've read about the rehab week suggests that the wrist is healthy, praytogod.
And while I'm at it, I'll eat crow about Mussina. He seems finally to have reconciled himself to his loss of velocity and is putting his considerable pitching IQ to much more productive use. He's actually pitching into the 7th and even the 8th with a fair degree of consistency, and that's a far cry from last year. Not that this will do them any good over the weekend.
The BP is excellent, and that does seem to be a consequence of better usage and therefore attributable to Girardi/Eiland.
But the bats and D are weak, and I'm not really sure how they're significantly improved this year. I wish they would encourage Posada to get the surgery and remove him from the picture. He seems only to complicate the DH/1b/LF problems, as I really don't envision him hitting like last year with a weakened shoulder. If he goes on the 60 day, Giambi is your 1b/DH, a platoon at 1b w/Sexson is not horrible, and then LF screams HELP!
What's the story on Christian, btw? I know little about him (not that I'm suggesting he's the answer for this year).
Sir Sid has pitched better than I expected, but he's not good. The bullpen is very real though. A lot of the Yanks chances will hinge on Good Andy showing up more often than Bad Andy, especially against the good teams. The Sox are better, but it's close enough that the Yanks have a decent chance. And the Yanks don't have to beat the Sox to get to the playoffs, so I'm overly concerned that the Sox are better.
Adding Papi back in to the Sox lineup will be damn sweet, though. Everything I've read about the rehab week suggests that the wrist is healthy, praytogod.
That makes the Sox really, really scary.
The Yanks have mostly been beating up on cripples,
C'mon, the A's and Twins aren't as good as their records, but I wouldn't count them as cripples. They beat the best pitcher in the league on Sunday.
They found him the Federal league I think. I like him just because he's beaten very long odds to get here. And he's a million times better than Brett Gardner.
Bobby Abreu's D is weak. I'm comfortable with the defense otherwise.
I love Moose, but if I'm the Yankees I'm not giving him more than a 1-year deal. He's been great this year mostly because he's been using a pitch (a 2-seam fastball) he never used before. He did this before in 2006 when he started using a new, slower changeup. I'm not convinced that this is a late-career revival rather than just a good year where the pieces came together.
Also, aren't Manny and Drew hurting? That could be the real difference in the series.
Independent League guy who's a very good baserunner/base stealer. He was originally signed as a 2B but made an error every other game and so was switched to the OF. Solid bench guy. I'd rather go with him than Gardner right now.
And the Yanks don't have to beat the Sox to get to the playoffs, so I'm overly concerned that the Sox are better.
It's somewhat funny that the Yanks might not make the playoffs this year when this is their team best constructed for a long postseason run in quite some time. That sentence is really unclear.
I'm not. I think the D's lousy. Cabrera's extremely inconsistent in CF, Abreu is weak, as you acknowledge, and Jeter and Giambi just look like crap to me.
Man, I thoroughly disagree with that. Giambi looks bad, but not comically bad. He even threw the ball to second accurately this week. He's not giving me the anxiety he has in the past, although he's still a liability (not as bad as Abreu though). And Jeter does not look bad at all. He's gotten to a ton of balls that he wouldn't have been able to spit at last year.
Cabrera's fine and Jeter by most measures is having a fine year. If the only weak points are your defense is your rightfielder and a part-time first baseman, you're okay.
Let me put this differently. If I'm the Yankees, I'm signing Mussina to a 1-year deal, at least. He's been great this year and they don't have a surplus of starting pitching. Whether this is a late career revival may be unclear, but it's a worthwhile risk to take.
And it needs to be said again: The Chamberlain move worked.
I do think that the Yankee offense isn't this mediocre, and the Yankee pitching isn't this great. I watch them, and I don't see qualitative differences in Abreu or Cano or Jeter that suggest they're now below average hitters. Statistically, the offense is underperforming while the pitching is overperforming - relief IP sample sizes are low enough that a guy can hit on a good run just by happening to have his good control for 20 IP. I think Veras and Farnsworth are both having fluky-good control, and I'm expecting at least one good Red Sox rally off this bullpen. (Ramirez looks different to me, but he's another guy who's improved because he's suddenly commanding his fastball like a pro.)
It's somewhat funny that the Yanks might not make the playoffs this year when this is their team best constructed for a long postseason run in quite some time. That sentence is really unclear.
I think if you just toss a "not" before overly and Cowboy's point clears right up.
IIRC, you've never been a fan of Melky's defense despite what the objective evidence and everyone else states, so I guess there's no point arguing there.
His positioning is better. They are adjusting him from the bench more and having him study scouting reports. He also worked out his legs to improve his range. They talked about it before the season and then he happened to have a good defensive season. It could be a fluke or they could turned the clock back for him a bit. His ZR isn't out of line with his 04 and 05 numbers.
I think if you just toss a "not" before overly and Cowboy's point clears right up.
Yeah, thank you for clearing that up SOSH.
I was referring to my sentence.
don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he turned into Ozzie Smith overnight - on even his best days he's still a tick below average - but I don't think this season only looks like a fluke when you compare it to last year, when he was gawd-awful. Of course, it became apparent that he was playing with nagging leg injuries for most of the season.
EDIT: CP explained it better in #27
I agree, but given what I've seen, I'm not really sure he's playing flukey good defense as opposed to the idea his normally below-average defense is slipping past defensive analysis. He's just a below-average SS and nothing I see convinces me otherwise. And Giambi's below average at 1b. There's no way around that. Pointing out that he actually made an accurate throw only illustrates that. And I can't see how watching Cabrera in CF leads to a conclusion that he's more than an average CFer. He makes mistakes all the time. ALL the time, like that stupid-ass wave the other day. Sure, he's got decent range and a strong arm, but he's so feckin' inconsistent mentally that I'd rate him average at best. In my opinion they have 3 above-average defenders, only one of whom counts as "excellent": Cano, A-Rod, and Molina. Molina's excellent. As much as I love how he throws, he calls and frames a great game. He's so much better than Posada it's like I forgot how good a C can be.
Ponson is a sandwich away from a DFA, but that bullpen is for real. This is the best Yankee bullpen since Mendoza/Lloyd/Stanton/Nelson/Rivera.
Odd, to my eyes Jeter and Giambi have both looked better in 2008 than they have in years, and the numbers don't show either to be horrific. Abreu's looked bad, and according to the some systems is the worst defensive player in the AL by a LOT, which seems strange to me, but whatever. This is an adequate defensive team to my eyes.
I'm much more worried about the offense. Even assuming Jeter and Cano are having second half rejuvenations and A-Rod/Giambi keep it up, the Yanks are punting 3 lineup spots with offensive non-entities. Gardner has no business on a ML roster as anything but a 5th OF (at best), Molina's bat is inadequate for an everyday player, and Melky's looking like his true talent level is an 85 OPS+ player.
Add me to the chorus of praise for Girardi's BP usage. He's given people opportunities to succeed, hasn't overworked anybody, and uses LaTroy in low leverage spots. The way he's handled the pitching staff has been very impressive, including the near seamless transition of Joba to starting pitcher.
Sure there is. For one thing, a lot of the "everyone else" states stuff was simply a reaction to having a CFer w/good legs for a change. Yeah, Melky's healthy and runs well, but that's not enough to conclude he's a good CFer. He's got a very good CF arm. I agree. Do you deny that he's inconsistent? Do you deny he drops catchable balls? Do you deny his reads are inconsistent?
Pardon me for not believing the hype that he's more than an average CFer. I just don't see it.
I agree on Giambi, too. He's terrible - but he's going to be DH'ing full time now, right? That shouldn't be an issue any more.
really? Not this season, from what I've seen. He's been guilty of making a dumb, overly aggressive throw in previous years, but he hasn't been doing much of that this year. And that waving-to-the-crowd play was genuinely odd - watch the replay, and he clearly had his eye on the ball when he got to it, but it took a bad hop and clanked off his glove. Maybe he wasn't concentrating enough to adjust to the hop, but there's no way of telling. Also, the runner never scored, so you can just chalk that up to water-under-the-bridge, in my book.
What is Strawberry doing?
He is?
To be clear, I think the Yankee bullpen is good - Rivera is still excellent, and they've done a good job filling in around him with good pitchers. Right now, those, a couple of those pretty good pitchers are performing way over their heads because they're throwing fastballs to the corners of the plate in ways they were never able to before. I'm skeptical.
Giambi's never looked good and still doesn't. Every time he stretches to catch a throw to first, I weep thinking of Donnie Baseball or John Olerud.
Sure, Giambi's only part-time, so it doesn't kill them, but is Posada gonna be better? And, my point was and remains that compared to their competition (Boston and TB), NY's D is a weakness.
No.
Do you deny he drops catchable balls?
Nope, but he catches way more balls that shouldn't be catchable. He's excellent on going back into the gaps. Most of his problem are coming in. So he gives up some extra singles and takes away some XBHs, I think it easily balances out in his favor.
Do you deny his reads are inconsistent?
Inconsistent compared to who? He makes some mistakes off the bat, he's got good enough body control to contort his way back and he cuts off and catches a lot of balls I see other guys miss. He's not as natural as Adam Jones out there, but I think you're really focusing on the negative because he just doesn't look the part.
Pardon me for not believing the hype that he's more than an average CFer. I just don't see it.
I'm not taking offense to it and don't want to be nasty about it, but most of the people on this site see him as a good CFer, and have for a while and saw the potential before he was a good one. The Yanks see him as one. Other clubs do as well (Pittsburgh and Atlanta at least). And the numbers suggest he is as well. Do you think that the Yanks would be preventing runs this well if Melky, Jeter, Giambi and Abreu were all as bad as you suggest?
I don't get why people hate the long games so much. I'm a fan of the drawn roller coaster of emotions.
Ditto on this. I hate watching him burn through ABs, but the man is a heck of a defensive catcher. If only he could put up even an 85 OPS+...
The Yankee staff as a whole is walking a lot less batters than they used to. And they have a new pitching coach this year. I don't think it's all coincidence. Some of it is, maybe Veras, probably Farnsworth, but not all of it is.
You got no shot on the second one, as you well know. We are talking 3:45 minimum.
Everyone watching these games will really enjoy them, though, with the exception of Joe Buck.
I always wanted to have a Molina, and now the Yankees could get two? Not fair.
I won't argue with Veras and Farnsworth, but let me second SJ in saying Edwar is for real. He's given up 14 walks in 36 innings this year, which is about in keeping with what he did at AAA last year (14 walks in 40 innings). What happened when he hit the majors last year is looking like the real fluke, when Torre was jerking his usage around.
The fate of the Molina Dynasty will be in the hands of Hank Steinbrenner.
Thirded. Anyone who can strike out ML hitters at that rate is legit. I've never seen big leaguers look so overmatched on a changeup before. It's actually Bugs Bunny-esque.
I read somewhere that scouts have given his changeup a full 80 grade. That's mighty impressive.
They're both visibly worse 1b than Giambi.
The skepticism's fair and the prediction a prediction. I want to distinguish 2 things: the performance of the BP and its use. The former has been incredible, but I agree it's not sustainable and dependent to some degree on hot streaks by people who can be expected to cool off. The use, however, is what excites me. It's so different from Torre's. Torre had become so distrustful of new/young pitchers and so locked into patterns. As Andy pointed out above, Girardi/Eiland have done a great job spreading the work and limiting the exposure of weaker pitchers to high-leverage situations. I'm impressed.
What were his stats like in the Anaheim system? Wikipedia says he learned his changeup during his year off, but Wikipedia often lies.
In this case it's accurate.
lousy. He only got 2 innings in AAA, before that he got lit up in high-A ball.
I don't get why people hate the long games so much. I'm a fan of the drawn roller coaster of emotions.
There is a reason why roller coaster rides only take a couple of minutes from beginning to end.
For example, Edwar did NOT murder Vincent Foster.
Ramirez has great stuff and is finally coming into his own. It's likely that one of Veras/Farnsworth comes down to earth, but that still results in a superior bullpen.
And while I can't get overly excited about any rotation that depends on Sidney Ponson, it does seem that the Yankees' big need right now is another quality bat that can actually play a corner OF position (we got enough DHs).
My bold prediction is that Jeter will finish the season at or above 115 OPS+, and Cano will come close to 100 OPS+, but that's not enough offense given the barely average/vulnerable starting rotation (what happens when Moose inevitably misses a turn or two with a mild ache or injury that happens to 39-year-old pitchers?). Sure, Giambi/platoon will generate good numbers for 1B, but who knows how Damon will hit post-DL (he hasn't exactly looked great in the last three games). An AL team that is getting subpar offense from DH, LF, CF and RF is not a strong team.
That being said, I wouldn't be surpised to see the Sox sweep this series. Much better offense and starting pitching. Saturday is the best shot for a Yankees win. Sunday is a foregone conclusion. Ponson is horrible and Lester is really good, and that will be that.
I will concede Sunday, but today and tomorrow are toss ups.
Agreed.
NJAS...: What's the deal? Is NY gonna sign any of their 1st three picks?
FWIW, the commish office usually holds up contracts that sign for more than slot money. It could be some of that too.
Of course.
I don't see this as good news. This is expected, we knew this was going to happen, and it happened. Ian Kennedy (and Phil Hughes for that matter) don't really have anything to learn in the minors. Whatever flaws they may or may not have will not be exposed at that level because they are too good, as is. Rasner to the BP, Kennedy to the rotation, Hawkins DFA'd.
Agree completely, unless NY is trying to trade Kennedy and doesn't want him in the majors "proving" he's not that good.
I'm going to defer to Rusty from the Steve Garvey thread:
36. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: July 24, 2008 at 11:47 PM (#2872256)
People in hell still waiting for ice water
Simply not true. He doesn't have closer-type stuff, but he can be a late inning guy.
"This never happens. Well, it happened to Anaheim once. It won't happen to the Yankees."
What doesn't happen? Being able to build a good bullpen internally? Melancon and Robertson are very good arms. Cox was on the fast track to the majors before his TJ surgery.
It may not happen that often, but more teams should look at building a bullpen from the farm than throwing away $4 million a year on the Kyle Farnsworths of the world.
More teams do do that. It's the Yankees that didn't in the past. I believe Matt's point is the notion you have some "set" bullpen is betrayed by overwhelming recent experience: bullpens are pretty damned fickle things and vary from year to year. Sure, NY's bp is doing well right now, and they have some nice young arms, but that doesn't mean "a top flight bullpen is in place." Count on, for instance, both Veras and Farnsworth sucking, Melancon or whoever having growing pains, and all of a sudden, the bp doesn't look so good. And eventually Rivera's gonna have to diminish. Right?
I don't see this as good news. This is expected, we knew this was going to happen, and it happened. Ian Kennedy (and Phil Hughes for that matter) don't really have anything to learn in the minors. Whatever flaws they may or may not have will not be exposed at that level because they are too good, as is. Rasner to the BP, Kennedy to the rotation, Hawkins DFA'd.
Point well taken, but I'd still see last year's Kennedy as a big improvement over this year's Rasner, and that's what I was referring to. Though you're right in implying that getting "last year's Kennedy" isn't exactly a certainty. I just hope they don't leave him down there too long, since both Rasner and Ponson put more strain on the bullpen than I'd like to see.
Archangels don't decline.
No bullpen cobbled together is ever assured of success. What I meant is that the pieces are now in place. Injuries are always a caveat and young arms, may or may not go through growing pains. To your other point, while Farnsy has a track record of blowing, I'm not so sure that Veras hasn't have gotten over the hump. He certainly has the stuff to break through.
It certainly never happens to the Red Sox.
And eventually Rivera's gonna have to diminish. Right?
One would think...
I disagree. We'll see how it comes out, but I'm really tired of predicting single game results based on pitching matchups. Pontoon could throw a gem while "Moe" Lester blows up. A 26-24 bullpen "battle" is not out of the question with these two teams.
Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew, Lowell, Varitek, Lowrie, Ellsbury
We have a good offense.
2B Pedroia
1B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
LF Ramirez
3B Lowell
RF Drew
SS Lowrie
C Varitek
CF Ellsbury
I like that lineup, but I would swap Drew and Lowell, although I suppose having both Manny and Lowell in between Ortiz and Drew makes lefty relievers less likely to be used against them. If it's only Manny, then you probably see more lefties come in to face Ortiz and pitch around Manny then pitch to Drew.
The surest sign that fortunes have changed for BTF Yankees fans is that they don't bother with the trademark.
Should be a good series... and a good series of Game Chatters if both teams are adequately represented.
If I chatter, I'm coming here. Some of the posters at RLYW have decided this game will only be a success if Joba hits someone, which I'm pretty sure is one of the dumbest things in the world.
I think the lineup change was long overdue. They should flop Lowell and Drew, though. First, it keeps the L-R-L-R deal going. Second, IIRC, neither Drew nor Ortiz is that bad vs. lefties. So bringing one in means mediocre results against those two and Manny mashing in the middle.
I hate all of the good nobodies that have crawled out of the woodwork for the Yankees and I'm hoping this year ends for them the way 2006 did for the Red Sox (both teams have faced a bunch of injuries). But I doubt it will.
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