BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Jacoby Ellsbury, Kenny Lofton, and Steals

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Sunday, June 22, 2008

Jacoby Ellsbury, Kenny Lofton, and Steals

I’ve mentioned several times in this space my belief that Kenny Lofton represents a good upside comparison for Jacoby Ellsbury. As the 2008 season approaches the midway mark, that comparison is looking very good, especially in stolen bases, where Ellsbury is taking a run at Lofton’s AL rookie record. Based on Ellsbury’s current stats, here’s how his projection for the season compares to Kenny Lofton’s rookie season (Lofton was a year older):

Ellsbury: 143 g, 498 AB, 109 R, 17 2b, 6 3b, 11 HR, 71 SB, 8 CS, 59 BB, 74 K, 278/358/397, 100 OPS+
Lofton: 148 g, 576 AB, 96 R, 15 2b, 8 3b, 5 HR,66 SB, 12 CS, 68 BB, 54 K, 285/362/365, 106 OPS+

Lofton looks to have a slight advantage in OPS+ and K/BB, while Ellsbury has him beat in power and age. Overall, still a very good comp. Ellsbury looks on his way to a Hall of Good career, albeit one in which you’re constantly signing 1-year deals (or not getting signed at all) and getting traded everywhere, including Japan.

Darren Posted: June 22, 2008 at 11:30 AM | 14 comment(s)
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1. Darren Posted: June 22, 2008 at 02:52 PM (#2828981)

Yeah, and so, anyway, that's what I think about this.

2. walt williams bobblehead Posted: June 22, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2829009)

Count the rings.

3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 23, 2008 at 07:58 AM (#2829610)

The big thing you get with the Kenny Lofton comp is that it's not that hard for a guy with low power early in his career to add on enough power to maintain a long, successful career. Lofton at his peak hit for higher averages that I expect Ellsbury will - he doesn't seem to have Lofton's contact ability, so he'll ring up more Ks from working deep counts.

And I wonder if those two thoughts are related. Ellsbury's striking out a chunk more in the majors, and he's putting up respectable power numbers (given the very low expectations). Given that there were reports last year of the Red Sox trying to get him to swing for extra bases more often, it all fits pretty well. And if a guy shows some marginal power at 24, a fan can reasonably hope for ok power around the peak years.

4. Joe C isn't Posted: June 23, 2008 at 10:00 AM (#2829703)

And if a guy shows some marginal power at 24, a fan can reasonably hope for ok power around the peak years.

He's above the Rexrode line, so to speak. He's got enough power to keep opposing pitchers honest and work enough BBs to keep his OBP up. He may never hit 20 HR, but Juan Pierre he is not.

5. JPWF13 Posted: June 23, 2008 at 10:08 AM (#2829714)

and he's putting up respectable power numbers (given the very low expectations).

Whose expectations? Kevin's ("Ellsbury is as good as Sizemore") or everyone else's?

6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 23, 2008 at 10:10 AM (#2829719)

Whose expectations? Kevin's ("Ellsbury is as good as Sizemore") or everyone else's?

Everyone else's, obviously. If you want to argue with kevin, go ahead. I was discussing Ellsbury.

7. ekogan Posted: June 23, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2830201)

No major rotator cuff damage for Schill
Dr. Craig Morgan, the doctor who performed Curt Schilling's surgery this afternoon [...] said the surgery, and what was found inside the shoulder, was about as good as they could have hoped.

As for his prognosis, it could be as soon as four months, Morgan said. The rehab for the labrum tear is very similar to the one for the biceps issue, which means that his rehab won't be significantly altered, even though they had to repair an additional problem during today's surgery.

"About four months to a throwing program, if he decides he wants to pursue that," Morgan said. "The rehab after this will be very similar to the rehab that he went through in 1995 when he had the SLAP [surgery to repair a labral tear and to remove a bone spur]. But he was 28 then, he's 41 now. We don't have anything to fix that one."

If only they'd done this in February, Schilling would've been in the rotation by now. The Red Sox medical team really screwed the pooch

8. bibigon Posted: June 23, 2008 at 05:48 PM (#2830212)

If only they'd done this in February, Schilling would've been in the rotation by now. The Red Sox medical team really screwed the pooch

There's a difference between the results not working out, and "screwing the pooch." It's a game of incomplete information - sometimes you do everything right, and still miss.

9. JPWF13 Posted: June 23, 2008 at 06:05 PM (#2830227)

There's a difference between the results not working out, and "screwing the pooch."

If the a choice is just between "things not working out" and pooch screwing, this looks more like pooch screwing.

It's a game of incomplete information - sometimes you do everything right, and still miss.

True, it's is possible that what the Redsox medical team decided to do was reasonable based upon the information available to them - that doesn't mean they made the right decision (apparently they made the wrong decision)- the fact that 2/3 medical arbitrators thought so is evidence that their decision was reasonable.

To over simplify:
1: Rehab is the best way to go
2: Surgery is the best way to go
3: 1 & 2 really don't matter, the prognosis is equally bad either way.

Hindsight is roughly 20/20 - it now looks like option 2 was correct- which can lead people to believing that picking option one was an act of pooch screwing. I think it would only rank as that, if, based upon available information the staff should have known that #2 was best. I don't think any outsider has the knowledge to make that call.

10. Toby Posted: June 24, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#2830705)

Um, there's a difference between "starting a throwing program in four months" and "pitching in MLB games in four months". The news article on Schilling over in Newsstand says he may -- may! -- be "throwing off a mound" in January, that's seven months from now. Do the math: surgery in February would mean throwing off a mound in September. Throwing off a mound is not the same as pitching in MLB games.

11. Tuque Snider is the new Gagne_55 Posted: June 24, 2008 at 09:43 PM (#2831589)

It's a game of incomplete information - sometimes you do everything right, and still miss.

It also seems like they certainly had enough pitching depth to take the gamble, between Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Masterson, Buchholz, Colon, Wakefield, and a good relief corps.

12. MM1f Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:16 AM (#2832063)

If only they'd done this in February, Schilling would've been in the rotation by now. The Red Sox medical team really screwed the pooch

I love how quickly people like to blast those who actually know what they are doing.

Ever considered that it might be more that just the Red Sox medical team? Schilling is, what, 40? The way he was talking this week made it sound that, if he was healthy, 2008 might have been his last year. Maybe he didn't want to have to go under a knife, miss a year, and do boring, tedious rehab for 12 months just to pitch for one more season at the end of his career?
It is reasonable to think that rehab alone would have given him a good chance to pitch decently for the second half of this year and the playoffs and then he could go out on top and take a bow.

This isn't a 21 year old prospect. After 08, or now 09, doesn't need his arm to be healthy enough to pitch.

13. villageidiom Posted: June 25, 2008 at 11:13 AM (#2832121)

One point worth bringing up is that, during the surgery, Dr. Morgan found a torn labrum. The biceps tendon attaches to the labrum, so that's not a minor point. Whether Schilling's recent shoulder pain was from the biceps tendon or the labrum, I don't know; so it's hard to say whether the need for surgery points to any one party as having screwed the pooch. Neither party diagnosed a torn labrum earlier, nor did anyone (IIRC) suggest a torn labrum would result from the rehab approach. So, either it's a recent development that nobody anticipated, or it was pre-existing and went undiagnosed by all experts.

14. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: June 25, 2008 at 11:24 AM (#2832135)

Schilling also tore his labrum in 1995. I wonder if it's an aggravation of that old injury. I wonder how big the tear was - if it was small it may have been asymptomatic in terms of where the pain was localized. If that makes sense.

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Sunday, June 22, 2008

Jacoby Ellsbury, Kenny Lofton, and Steals

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