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EDIT: OK that was a stupid comment. What I meant was I don't like Lackey and I think this sucks. Win Shares be damned.
Second, I'm just really happy the Sox decided to make some news on the day I attempt my first veal stock. This #### takes forever.
Yeah, but it's so worth it! What are you planning for it, anything in particular?
Also: I feel meh about Lackey.
ESPN must have it wrong. Dan Shaughnessy himself told me twice this week that the Sox were pocketing their profits from us suckers and punting the 2010 season.
Don't get me wrong - Halladay's a great pitcher - but would you really want to sign him through age 38? Lackey will only be 35 at the end of this deal.
Assuming the Lowell deal goes through, Beltre makes too much sense not to happen. But add 4/40 or 48 or whatever that will take to the 85 it costs to sign Lackey, and don't we have to be faced with Jeremy Hermida, starting LF?
36. He turned 31 back in October. Lackey is all of a year and a half younger than Halladay.
I hate this signing. Hate it.
Why?
Not if they can sign Cameron to a one year deal.
Mostly because I can't stand the thought of having to root for that big, corn-fed dope for five friggin' years. I appreciate, and basically agree with, everything Mikael and others have said in support of this signing. My head understands the move. My heart reserves the right to hate it.
On less subjective grounds, I hate it because we're giving an ace-level contract to a guy who hasn't pitched like an ace in two years. Nor has he been fully healthy in two years. Nor is he particularly young.
I hate it because I can very easily see this signing being used as an excuse to let Beckett walk next winter.
I hate it because I feel like it won't be long until the Sox are eating a big chunk of this contract in order to move him.
I hate it because I felt it was entirely reasonable to pass on this free agent market and save the bullets for next winter.
Also, did he have shoulder issues recently?
First I heard of it was after the physical had been taken.
I'm fine with this deal. Lackey's a helluva pitcher.
That's a decent comp. Moose had 6 straight seasons of 200+ IP leading up to that contract, though.
If they finish the offseason with Beltre and Gabe Gross then I'll be unbelievably happy
Theoretically, sure. In practice, it's probably still doubtful.
Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent player signed to an exceptionally cheap contract. The Padres would be idiots to trade him.
This team is going to impossible to score on
I do hope they sign Beltre, plus a good defensive outfielder. I would love for the Sox to have good fielding again.
Edit: posted that before #32. Cameron would seem to fit the bill.
One of these things is true: either Scutaro is significantly underpaid or Lackey is significantly overpaid.
Funnily with Lackey in the rotation, who is technically the #1 starter? Personally I think Lester is now the guy, but it'll be fun to see how the 3 of them go this year.
EDIT: also, Scutaro is considered a steal by CHONE's numbers because he's rated as a +8 defender. I think that's at least eight runs too high, and it appears most of the rest of MLB agrees with me.
Boof! I was hoping for Rich Harden but with the Lackey signing, it looks like I'll have to settle for Bosner as this offseason's reclamation project.
Matthew Carruth of Fangraphs writes about Lackey. He thinks a fair deal would've been $60 million.
This is my point from the last paragraph - the Red Sox need to spend their budget to maximize their wins, and with Lackey the best player out there who isn't ticketed to the Yankees, they've pulled that off. The Marlins can have the win/$$ championship.
Cameron: 10.0
Ellsbury: -18.6
I don't know if Ellsbury is THAT bad, but I've read some less than effusive reviews on his defense.
The stathead orthodoxy, as I understand it, is that there is not much value added in maximizing your outfield - that is, making sure your best defender is in center and next best on the corners. There are more balls hit to center, but not so many more that it's a major effect.
Is it just me, or is that, indeed kind of subtle? I mean, sure, he's come down hard from his peak at 10%, but isn't his swinging strike rate as likely to be, say, 8.5% as it is 8.1% next year? In other words, his swinging strike rate seems relatively stable to me at ~8.5%. If it falls another .3 or .5 next year, then maybe the downward trend will be less subtle, but for now that doesn't seem tremendously worrying.
Which wouldn't be surprising; he certainly has the speed and ability to be at least average in CF.
I think the Lackey deal is pretty fair, but I don't think it's really clear that contracts will be more expensive in 2014. Plus, they're committing the money right now, so it should be compared against other money committed right now (for 2014).
I think that this deal hinges on Lackey's health. If their physical shows him to be pretty healthy, then I feel good about him being worth 4+ wins per year.
Love the Cameron talk. Hope they get him. Crazy day!
20.1M
22.2M
23.0M
9.1M
17.6M
That looks like a $20 mil pitcher who got hurt one year. Seems like a decent price for him.
On Ellsbury/Cameron, we should also consider that Ellsbury has great numbers in LF. He's just as valuable there, give or take a couple runs, so I say put him there and put Cameron--the one we know is good--in CF. Plus I wouldn't be surprised if that was a big deal to Cameron, with him probably wanting to keep his face in tact and all.
You can't just discount the best free agents by saying "the Yankees will get him in any case". Matt Holliday is the best free agent this year, he fills a hole on the roster, the Sox should've spent the money on him. I have a feeling Holliday will sign for much less than anybody expects, probably for no more than Lackey.
If I recall, he's almost always played in pitchers' parks, so Fenway should be very much to his liking.
Funny thing is, the offseason may be pretty much over. The club needs a third baseman (or maybe a first baseman), but with Lackey, Cameron, and Scutaro, we're otherwise set for 2010.
These moves leave Theo the opportunity to fill either 3b or 1b presumably on the cheap. I'd guess he'll try to stumble down the Mueller/Millar route again for that guy.
I figure Cameron plays 130 games, split between left, center, and right. Our right fielder is JD Drew - there will almost certainly be a month where Cameron fills in for him full time.
They may not be done. The Red Sox FO isn't exactly predictable.
Though I tend to side with you, in a way. I prefer the offensive juggernaut with good enough pitching approach to team building, if only because that aspect of the game is less volatile and easier to quantify.
But that's really just my own personal preference - I'm willing to give the Red Sox FO a shot at building a team a different way given the consistent success they've had. If they say we can win with a Cameron/Ellsbury/Drew/Hermida OF, I'm willing to give them a year to prove it before I poo poo the idea too much. Assuming Cameron doesn't lose it, the added defense should, in theory, offset the lost offense. Again, I'd prefer to see another big bat, but I can see this working out fine.
Yes! Didn't someone write an article called "Is Mike Cameron the Best Player in Baseball?"?
This gets said a lot--they need to add a big bat for the middle of the lineup. But is there any evidence that having another big bat is better than having a lineup of solid hitters/very good defenders? The Yankees of the late 1990s had a nice run without a whole lot in the way of 'big boppers.'
Back in the Primer days, I was one of the ones constantly agitating for some type of Manny/Cameron deal. Of course, UZR had them about 90 runs apart at the time. :)
Right. This team didn't even have a 30-HR guy.
The offense hasn't taken that big a hit.
EDIT: I should look things up. Interestingly, CHONE just hates Cameron, projecting him to 314/401 - compared to 339/424 for Hermida. If that happens, Hermida will get quite a bit of playing time.
EDIT2: In defense of my memory's analysis of Hermida and Cameron, these are their OPS+ numbers the last three years.
Hermida: 125, 90, 94
Cameron: 104, 111, 111
I realize Hermida's a decade younger, but that feels like a pretty big difference for age to make. They're both switching leagues, so that's not it.
Drew - 135
Ellsbury - 140
Cameron - 135
Ortiz - 135
That leaves 103 starts to be soaked up by the bench. Hermida won't be able to make all of those, since presumably some of those needed off days or injuries will overlap. But there will be plenty of playing time for him. And obviously if he's OPSing 900 in June, you can increase his role.
Guys just not work out?
I also hate the Lackey signing, for all the reasons mentioned in [18]. And because he's a 31 year old pitcher who averaged over 210 IP per season for 5 years before getting hurt and missing 8 or so starts in each of the last 2 seasons. And he's signed for 5 years.
EDIT: How did the Red Sox go from last years' crazy ptiching depth (and previous years with what seemed to me a deep system) to being so barren?
Matsuzaka imploded, Masterson filled in aptly but got traded, Buchholz was held back and then didn't impress in MLB, Bowden seemed either less ready or less able than advertised. Wakefield was hurt a little longer than expected, and Tazawa wasn't ready either. Penny and Smoltz mostly just stunk. Lester and Beckett were fine. I think that covers the 10 or so guys we figured would end up making an effective rotation.
2010 looks like Lester/Lackey/Beckett/Matsuzaka/Buchholz/Wakefield (making 6) plus depth (Bowden/Bonser/Tazawa and whatever other retread signings come through).
Kind of looks like Casey Kotchman might be the opening day 1B
I never said anything. Just sat there for four hours and listened to their crap. I did get to heckle Brad Wilkerson, though.
Cameron was probably more valuable to Seattle than Griffey would have been over the same time, even before you factor in salary.
Jeez, tough crowd. Buchholz, age 24: 92 IP, 111 ERA+ after getting called up in July.
Part of me wonders if Lackey and Cameron weren't acquired to allow a Gonzalez trade centered on Buchholz + Ellsbury + prospects. I don't expect this to happen, but it certainly wouldn't shock me.
I think they are going to pursue that with some vigor. The other possibility, though remote, is that Victor Martinez is the Opening Day first baseman with Max Ramirez behind the plate. I would be stunned if that happened but I think it is at least as likely as a Gonzalez trade happening.
Have there been any actual reports this offseason of talks between the Red Sox and Padres? I can't remember any. The whole thing looks like a fantasy scenario.
No, but prior to today I don't exactly recall being flooded with reports about the Red Sox talking to Lackey and his agent either.
I think a lot of it comes down to how they value Buchholz. If they see "Future (soon) Ace" then maybe they look at that, look at Kyle Blanks as a reasonable replacement and figure strike while the iron is hot. Blanks/Ace Starter/Centerfielder & Leadoff hitter/Prospect may be more valuable than Blanks/Gonzalez. That is a lot more confidence in Buchholz than I have but there are some who feel that way about him.
Absence of evidence may not be definite evidence of absence, but it surely isn't somehow evidence of presence.
OF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
C Martinez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
OF Cameron
1B Kotchman
SS Scutaro
It's a pretty solid lineup, but if Ortiz falls off a cliff or Drew comes up lame for an extended stretch you're looking at a pretty thin middle of the order. That's a really good defense though, average or above at every position except possibly 3B. Although UZR has Youkilis as slightly above average the last few years in his limited play, a reasonable guess probably puts him at around a -5 third baseman. A Beltre signing would really put the defense over the top though, and balance out a lineup that has 3 of the 5-8 hitters as LHH.
Moving on, is Kotchman actually signed? His name keeps popping up as if he's already in the fold for 2010, but I can't remember seeing any reporting of a new deal or arb offer.
Which means they gave him a contract, which he must either sign or take to arbitration. So yes, he's signed.
Sure does. I can see this front office doing exactly that. Seems like it might make the team seriously lefthanded, but Johnson is really the Red Sox kind of player. White, kinda boring, takes a bunch of walks.
Ellsbury 14.8
Pedroia 23
VMart 20.7
Youk 28.5
Drew 22.9
Cameron 0.6
Ortiz 24.7
Scutaro -1.4
Kotchman 0.9
Total: 137.7
The average American League team scored 781 runs last year which would have next year's Sox scoring 918.7 runs. Those wRAA numbers are calculated based on all of the majors though, so it may make more sense to add them to the MLB average. In that case, 749.5 + 137.7 = 887.2. This is also presuming the team gets league average production outside its starting nine, a difficult proposition for any club, although James projects Hermida at 11 wRAA, and if Beltre (0.0) is signed, Kotchman gives them another average-ish bat on the bench. They'll give some of that back with Varitek (-3.1), but Lowrie (6.5) would be a fine option at utility infielder. It'll be interesting to see what other systems say, but this looks like one of the better offensives in the game.
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