I have no idea what to think of Lester. Through April he was legitimately terrible despite his good ERA. I was pretty sure his future was goign to be spent on the Boston long relief/Pawtucket rotation shuttle before he got DFA'ed in a couple years. Maybe the Pirates give him 12 starts in 2011 and he puts up a 5.58 ERA.

My non-thinking half is totally convinced that he's morphed into a part-Sabathia, pat-Pettitte beast, but my thinking half says you can't ignore how mediocre he projected before the year and how terrible he was to start it

It makes me think that all the talk that Farrell thinks Lester’s an elite pitcher who just needed to recover a bit more from cancer might actually be legit.

That, and tweak his command a little. Now that he's not walking anybody and throwing strikes, he's mowin' em down. Even in his last start, the runs they got off him were really fluky.

It's amazing what a little improvement in command will do for a guy with good stuff. And that's what makes me optimistic that Lester is for real. He's not been outrageously lucky overall, he's just been very good. He had an abnormally high BABIP of .339 in June, but walked only 3 batters in the entire month. I don't expect either of those numbers to hold up going forward, but it's still encouraging that he had great success despite having a few more hits fall in than usual.

With all the yelling and hand wringing that goes on with young pitchers, I've always managed to be pretty calm with Lester.

There is just too much history of LHPs with really good stuff but not great command taking a long time to add that final piece. I just looked at him as a good #4-5 starter who would be brilliant every now and again, but likely wouldn't put it together for a few years. I sure didn't think he'd put it together this quickly. Ever since he matched Roy Halladay's pace he's been just locked in.

Beckett's still the ace here, and I look forward to a hot 2nd half by him (3.23 FIP). Lester (3.86 FIP) has certainly been terrific of late, with a 2.52 normal ERA (43-12 K-W ratio-yep he's harnessed his command in a big way) in 9 games since the no-no (inclusive). [Dice-K's 5.08 FIP doesn't even belong in this discussion]

Now if they'd just bring Clay back up, let him work through his major league growing pains ASAP, and this rotation might be pretty formidable in the 2nd half.

Dice-K's 5.08 FIP doesn't even belong in this discussion]

If Dice-K doesn't solve that nitpicking/BB/too many pitches through 5 problem soon, we could be in for a VERY painful second half out of the guy, especially considering his hit rate probably isn't manageable for the next 3 months.

Bowden's doing it again for Portland: no runs 2 hits, 0 BBs, 4 K's in 5 innings.

This is all well and good, but did you know that "Hawk" Harrelson, the sportscaster for the White Sox sucks? Un huh. He do.

This is all well and good, but did you know that "Hawk" Harrelson, the sportscaster for the White Sox sucks? Un huh. He do.

We're aware. From 1975 to 1981, he was broadcasting Red Sox games... the first four of those with Dick Stockton. Why do you think we like Remy and Orsillo so much?

Though, he didn't do any of his "he gone" or "you can put it on the board, YES!" shtick when he was with the Red Sox. He was pretty normal then.

I don't mind Hawk. He's annoying, but I think he gives a lot of credit to the opposing team and generally respects them.

JB H Posted: July 04, 2008 at 08:26 AM (#2843085)
I have no idea what to think of Lester. Through April he was legitimately terrible despite his good ERA. I was pretty sure his future was goign to be spent on the Boston long relief/Pawtucket rotation shuttle before he got DFA'ed in a couple years. Maybe the Pirates give him 12 starts in 2011 and he puts up a 5.58 ERA.

My non-thinking half is totally convinced that he's morphed into a part-Sabathia, pat-Pettitte beast, but my thinking half says you can't ignore how mediocre he projected before the year and how terrible he was to start it

See... I keep hearing that people think Lester didnt project as anything special. He dominated the Eastern League and was one of the top 4 or 5 pitching prospects in baseball at one point. He's a lefty who throws hard (low to mid 90's is hard for a lefty after all) with very good stuff and more than one plus pitch. He's proven himself relatively durable and hasnt had any health/injury issues outside of the C word. In his first season in the majors he started off what? 7-0? Luck was a factor but the guy always looked legit.

Jon Lester looked like a front of the rotation starting pitcher for most of his time as a prospect. The luster faded for many people when he was less than spectacular his second time around the league - after recovering from cancer. His stuff was not the same at the time and his velocity was down. If you watch him this season its easy to see that bad stretch as the exception and the dominant pitching prospect with very good stuff and subpar control as the rule.

Why do you think we like Remy and Orsillo so much?

Uh...I don't.

Jon Lester started and won the 2007 WS clincher, pitching out of a jam or two.
That kind of thing is big for me. After the 2 WS titles, I've become a believer in
mental toughness as an important trait in an athlete, especially pitchers.
Got it in spades: Beckett, Papelbon, Jumpin' Jonny Lester. Need to find it
again: Wake, MDC, Okajima. Somebody please tell Okajima its OK to throw a 1-0 fastball
to the leadoff guy with 7th inning 3 run lead, even if it only notches 89 mph.

As to Lester's Pettitte-like dance around his periphials...maybe some guys are a little harder
to square up, they hide the ball better,they're creatively wild, etc., when the situation
suggests to give this approach a try. I always thought that Petitte was an example
of a creatively wild pitcher.

Lester bailed out the big club Thursday night. Did not see it coming.

Pettitte doesn't have some magical ability to defy the pitching gods. When his walks are up, he is around 110 ERA+. When he keeps his walks down, he has his best seasons.

Another point is that Pettitte's control was better in the minors than Lester's. By about a walk per 9 IP. I don't think Lester ever projected as top of the rotation. He had control issues and never was dominant.

Uh...I don't.

You were, what, 1 when Stockton and Harrelson last broadcasted for the Red Sox?

I've become a believer in mental toughness as an important trait in an athlete, especially pitchers. Got it in spades: Beckett, Papelbon, Jumpin' Jonny Lester. Need to find it again: Wake, MDC, Okajima.

Wake? I don't see how it translates to his repertoire.

Speaking of Wake, how much credit for his recent streak goes to Kevin Cash? Thoughts?

Wake? I don't see how it translates to his repertoire.

Well, think foul shooting in hoops, or putting, or field goal kicking. Lets see if he rattles tonight
on national HDTV.

GGMC-I always had the impression that Pettitte had better ERA+'s than his WHIP's might suggest? No?

GGMC-I always had the impression that Pettitte had better ERA+'s than his WHIP's might suggest? No?

You're right that Pettitte has outplayed his expected runs - he allows fewer runs than projected by H/BB/HR. Pettitte's a little weird, though, because he allows many more hits than you would expect, given his other component stats. The two factors appears to even out. According to BP's (pretty awesome) dH/dR stats, Pettitte's allowed 44 runs fewer than his component numbers would project, but he's allowed 132 more hits than said numbers, combined with his teammates numbers (to account for defense) would project.

Lester's got similar-ish numbers this year, allowing three more hits than expected, but eight fewer runs. Seems a pretty good comp to me - especially because Lester, as a big lefty featuring a cut fastball, has been compared to Pettitte since he was in single-A. The problem with the comp is that guys who beat their component numbers are relatively rare, and we don't have nearly enough data on Lester to argue that he's got that skill as a statistical point. I haven't really seen anything from Lester to suggest that he has an atypical ability to prevent runs, but if you've seen it, I'd be interested to hear the case.

(Also, how well do BP's stats account for control of the running game? Pettitte is the best of his era at controlling the running game, which could account for some of his excellent run prevention stats. But I have to assume BP includes opponent SB/CS in their run projections, so the question is whether there are runs they miss in that calculation. I don't know.)

To follow up on Lester, he has thrown 262 innings in his career, and allowed 20 fewer runs than expected by component numbers.

Tom Glavine is the poster child for a pitcher beating his component numbers in run prevention, and he allowed 100 fewer runs than projected in 4300 IP. While Lester may have some ability to beat his component projections, the extent of his success so far has no precedent among modern pitchers that I can find, and I would have to project some level of coming back to earth for Lester on that.

I don't think Lester ever projected as top of the rotation. He had control issues and never was dominant.

As a 21 year old at AA Portland Lester started 26 games allowing only 114 hits in 148.1 IP. He struck out 163 batters. He walked 57. He only allowed 7 HR. Lester does two things very well - not give up hits and keep the ball on the ground/in the park. His walks dont hurt him as much as they should because he's very stingy with giving up HRs.

I dont know what your definition of dominant is, but Lester's performance at Portland in 2005 really has to be considered "dominant."

And don't forget Pettitte's pickoff move, which doesn't show up in his component stats. He reduces baserunners and keeps runners from advancing as far as normal.

Lester's been talked about as a 2/3 starter for most of his minor league career. Thus the Pettitte comparisons - not an ace, but a good starter on a playoff team.

(Yes, yes, I know that "ace" should technically mean one of the 30 best pitchers in baseball and thus Pettitte was an ace with the VORP and the WARP and the glavin. But that's not what the word has ever meant, and it's a very useful and logical thing, it allows us to make clear distinctions between the projected upsides of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, for intance.)

The Red Sox have recently been talking up Lester's upside, suggesting he can be a true ace. That's pretty new, though, and you won't find much of that sort of talk in recent BAs - the best I found was a 2006 comment, after his breakout season, that Lester had the stuff to be a "frontline" starter.

There was mention that Jon Lester turned a corner when he went head-to-head with Doc Holliday this year, and started working quicker games (picking up his rhythm). What were his stats like since that game? Do they project as 'top of the rotation'?

Since that game he has 78 IP, 75 H, 2.65 ERA, 54/18 K/BB, 1.43 GB/FB

Slightly off-topic, but it's about the starting rotation...

Last night's start by Matsuzaka was very encouraging, I thought. He was a totally different pitcher - it looked like he threw something like 75% fastballs, using his fastball in tight counts and challenging hitters, getting the first strike consistently with the fastball. It seemed like a conscious change, but it also appeared that he had better velocity than he's shown recently, sitting 92-93 and touching 95 a couple times (on the Fenway gun). He didn't have a good slider, but he mixed in a few cutters and got his changeup over against lefties. What was encouraging wasn't so much the results as how he got them - good fastball velocity, lots of first pitch strikes, lots of challenge fastballs in hitters' counts.

</i>Lester's been talked about as a 2/3 starter for most of his minor league career. Thus the Pettitte comparisons - not an ace, but a good starter on a playoff team.</i>

I think this discussion highlights something that is known, but often overlooked in discussions about a young player's projection. Say Lester really does project as a 2/3. Some very small fraction of the time, he'll end up a Cy Young type. Occasionally he'll end up an #1. Not much more often, but the most probable outcome still, is 2/3. Happening almost as much he'll be a 4/5. Many times he'll end up a reliever and every now and then he'll never stick in the majors for any significant length of time. A projection has pretty big error bars and doesn't take into account a kid learning more than normal or faster than normal (or less or slower). Given the error bars, the uncertainty and the fact that, by definition, we're dealing with a sample size of 1, projections are at best vague guesses. Over the sum of the population they are pretty accurate. Trying to say with certainty what one specific pitcher will do based on peripherals and history is not likely to be much better than scouting. Neither the statistical projection nor scouting alone can be that great. You need to play one off the other and be ready to be flexible if/when the projection goes awry.

Lets see if he rattles tonight on national HDTV.

what is this national hdtv feed you speak of? as a displaced boston fan living behind enemy lines (ny/nj), i need all the red sox national tv games i can get. stop teasing me!

Wake pitched Sunday night on ESPN/ESPNHD, plim.

Agree Mikael - but I'm reserving judgment till he does it again vs. the Orioles on the weekend - the guy is driving me nuts.

I realize this team is plenty deep in starting pitching, but does anyone think Beane would've gone for a Harden deal centered around Masterson and Moss? I was rather surprised Harden and Gaudin didn't fetch a little more, although I guess a lot depends on your evaluation of Eric Patterson. Based on minor league stats, he looks a bit like Jed Lowrie with a lot more speed and a little less discipline. But Patterson can't play shortstop.

Though, he didn't do any of his "he gone" or "you can put it on the board, YES!" shtick when he was with the Red Sox. He was pretty normal then.

I was 13 when he and Stockton left Boston. I honestly don't remember if they were good or not. First off, we only got one game a week or so back then. Secondly, The only guys that we could compare them to were the national guys on NBC and ABC or Phil Rizzutto and crew. I do recall people complaining about Howard Cosell back around then, but I don't recall anyone marketing soft bricks with Stockton's name on them for viewers to toss at the TV.

My theory on jocks in the booth that they are usually at their best earliest in their career; when some of their contemporaries are still playing. So it wouldn't surprise me if Harrelson was better back then. But I really don't pay much attention to announcers when I watch a game (radio's a different story.) That said, I'm glad that some guy is raising money for socks for the homeless, but I really don't want to find out about it in the middle of an inning. Don't they have an hour to fill pregame? Mention that then.

I kind of give them a pass on the charities. It's when they do a 1/2 hour interviewing the GM of the Bruins that bothers me.

Why was Lester left in the game so long the other day? Why was Hansen sent back out after a 65-minute inning today?

I remember him better than you do, GGC, as I was in my late teens and early 20's when he was doing Sox games but you nail it pretty well. He was good when the guys on the team were guys he had played with. He was great at calling homeruns and dissecting hitting. Not so good on the rest but not terrible either.

He slipped as he got older and now he's sort of a parody of himself. Most guys my age liked him a lot then but don't like him so much now.

Hijack...

There'll be an MRI today, and we'll know more soon, but the initial reports on Lugo's injury sound serious:

"I'm real worried," Lugo said. "Because I know it wasn't something that just pulled, when you pull a muscle. I felt something that popped, and that's what worries me."
...
"I think he did it pretty good," manager Terry Francona said. "We'll get him looked at, but I think there's a chance that he didn't just strain this."(Globe)

Looks like Lowrie's gonna get a chance to Pipp him, quite possibly.

On a sidenote, I've been pretty happy with Brandon "the Clutch Caucasian" Moss recently. He's been good defensively, and seems to come up with some reasonably good ABs. I think he should get the 4th OF job next year for good.

good ######' riddence, Julio Wifebeater. hope you never have to work another day in your life.

Julio Lugo getting hurt is the best evidence to date that God might exist.

3 straight games Tito has left his starters begin the 8th and then have them struggle and need to be yanked.

lets let Okajima start an inning for once, thats when he shines.