Does the 5 years signify the time since he was put on waivers?

So long Manny, you were frigging insane and we loved you for it.

I'll never forget that homer off K Rod last year.

The KRod homer is the one that sticks out most for me too. It was such a ridiculous blast! The high-five dp was fun. The fingers pointed in the air on the game-winning hit in 04 postseason was cool too.

I wish Manny nothing but the best, but it was time for him to go. In my opinion this deal is fantastic considering that the Red Sox had literally zero leverage. Everyone knew they were looking to get rid of Manny. They got the player they wanted to replace him in LF, and as a bonus kept him away from a divisional rival who was also looking to acquire him.

On the base paths, Bill James Online has Bay as +24 bases this year, which is very very good, so you have to consider that in addition to the defensive upgrade.

Gosh, I cannot believe that we have Bay! That is so freaking awesome to me.

Dan, do you have Manny's baserunning numbers?

Also, this deal may have helped to keep Jay Ray Bay from the Tampa Bay Rays. That has some value.

Manny was -4 on the base paths this year. These numbers are in bases, not runs obviously, and I don't recall the conversion rate.

Also, the Angels are clobbering Pettitte.

Losing Moss is the only real downside, as he's a spare part for both L and R who may be needed the next time J. D. Drew gets a hangnail for a month. So Manny + a spare part + a failed prospect for a good defensive outfielder who can hit some too? Color me impressed.

To better break down the money: if the Red Sox had kept Manny for 08, they would have had to pay him $27 mil over the next two years. By making this trade, they are instead paying $16.5 mil ($9.5 mil to Bay and $7 mil to the Dodgers) over the same period to have Bay. Would you trade Hansen and Moss for $11 million in savings and a small upgrade in LF?

Getting Bay is also good because after 2009 you have a lot of options, whereas this offseason the options are a lot worse.

The real question is: What does the money from Manny and Schilling that's freed up go towards?

Also, this deal may have helped to keep Jay Ray Bay from the Tampa Bay Rays. That has some value.

To the Yankees too!

What's the lineup going to be?

Pedroia
Youkilis
Ortiz
Lowell
Drew
Bay
Lowrie
Catcher
Centerfielder

?

Bay is also under control for 2010, correct?

I don't see a problem with sticking Bay right into the 4 spot

Drew up higher up in the order with his OBP skills would be nice but Francona knows best

I would prefer a lineup of:

Pedroia
Youkilis
Ortiz
Bay
Drew
Lowell
Lowrie
Varitek
Ellsbury

Bay is also under control for 2010, correct?

No.

The Sox are probably worried about the pressure of batting him #4--directly replacing Manny. They'll put him 5 or 6.

I'd prefer (but it won't happen):

Pedroia
Youk
Drew
Bay
Ortiz
Lowell
Lowrie
Varitek
Ellsbury

Man, I'm REALLY sad to see Manny go, but agree that it was probably best for him and the Sox to break up.

Great deal for Boston though, getting Bay when everyone knew they had to do something.

Moss and Hansen never would have been more than bench guys for Boston anyways.



Any of you Sox fans know what the overall direction of the wind is in Boston and Sam Horn?
I think the FO was gunning a bit hard for Manny, and might have screwed up a salvageable situation.

If they aren't going to bat him cleanup, I'd like to see:

Pedroia
Drew
Bay
Ortiz
Lowell
Youkilis
Lowrie
Tek
Ellsbury

the next time J. D. Drew gets a hangnail for a month.

C'mon, Drew's been fairly durable for three years running now. I think we can give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Pedroia
Youkilis
Ortiz
Bay
Drew
Lowell
Lowrie
Varitek
Ellsbury

I agree that would be perfect. I just don't see Tito dropping Lowell in the order though. It took him three years to figure out the Varitek shouldn't be hitting any higher than 8th.

I'm a little put-off by Bay's lifetime splits vs the AL, and vs all power pitchers...but hopeful this wil
turn out as a fine deal for the Sox.

I guess it was finally Manny's time to leave, but wow, what memories.

Let's not forget the huge game 5 3 run HR vs the A's in 2003.

Let's not forget the huge game 5 3 run HR vs the A's in 2003.

FOR SURE TEDDY

That's in my top 5 easily - those were the days when Zito was good

Let's not forget the huge game 5 3 run HR vs the A's in 2003.

I was there. I'll even tell ya I called it, once I saw that Zito was bouncing curveballs. Manny was sitting fastball and crushed it.

He also hit an awesome game tying HR off Foulke in the 9th in an August series vs the A's that year as well. It was a really important series where the Sox needed to do well to get the wild card, and they got torched the first two games by the A's, then won two to split, including an extra inning last game.

The A's and Sox played some insane baseball games in 2003, every bit as good as the Red Sox-Yankee games that year.

They played some great games in 2002 as well. Remember Terrence Long robbing a HR from the bullpen? (I think Manny might have hit it, but I'm not sure) That was during Oakland's streak if I remember correctly.

I wonder how right Jonah was when he said the Sox were c*ck-blocking the Rays over Jason Bay. It seemed for sure that he was going to Tampa but I wonder if Theo stepped in at the last second and offered to upgrade the package. He got rid of Manny for basically equal value and kept arguably the strongest division rival from addressing their biggest need. Two birds, one stone. Who compared to trading Manny as his Smile? I think this is a terrific move.

Has anyone checked on karlmagnus? I'm worried about him.

It's Magnum, dammit! Magnum!

If the Rays did prompt him to make this move, I'm glad they did.

He's probably buying his new Dodgers cap and Manny jersey.

I think #### blocking the Rays was an ancillary benefit. He was the best player on the market for both teams' needs.

The Dodgers have indeed become my temporary #2 affiliation, but I will also consider whatever team Manny ends up with after the winter. Meanwhile I love Boston, I love the Nation, I love Wakefield, I like most of the rest of the team, but the ownership is the sleaziest since Charley Comiskey. And I expect them to finish third only if they can hold off the surging Baltimore.

I don't think they "had to" trade Manny. With all the antics he's pulled the last few years, I could see things quieting down enough to let the Sox finish off the year with him, though perhaps with a lot of "Manny being Manny" shrugs.

The best deals are garnered when a trade doesn't have to be done, and I think the GM's and team's reputation in that arena matter. Theo has shown he doesn't have to make deals, especially when Manny is involved.

I'll be concerned about the reat of '08 for the Sox, though. Many NL hitters have struggled in the AL, and left field in Fenway may be small to cover, but there's a learning curve.

With Hansen gone, I take it we'll be treated to the return of Chris Smith to the bullpen?

See, I'm not so sure. I think it may have been a little more deliberate. After it was reported Bay was going to Tampa, the Dodgers were in talks about Mannny. I wonder if Theo had some Manny-for-Kemp deal lined up and once he heard about Bay going to Tampa, he figured that it would be better (this year, anyway) to take away Tampa's new toy rather than get one of his own.

Hunter Jones is another possibility. Big lefty with good velocity who's pitched well at AA and AAA this year. Also not big splits.

Re#32,

I don't see a lot of visiting LF's having trouble in Fenway. They all seem to get it pretty quickly.

Hunter Jones, eh? I'm intrigued. Anything to see less of Javier Lopez would be nice.

2.70
3.10
2.63

Those are Lopez's ERA's with Boston. Why do we all hate him so much?

Because his ERA doesn't included all of the inherited runners he allows to score. Those are all included in MDC's ERA.

Or the inherited runners the other relievers strand after he walks the bases loaded.

It would definitely be aggressive, but what about bringing Bard up and putting him in some low-leverage situations?

Those are Lopez's ERA's with Boston. Why do we all hate him so much?

Seems every runner he inherits scores and I'm too lazy to check his whip

I'm in favor of throwing him into the fire and seeing what happens. He's certainly more ready than Hansen was in 2006. He has great stuff, and he's been throwing strikes. It's not like he's a SP that needs to learn how to pitch. If he's throwing strikes, he'll be successful. If he isn't he'll fail.

Bard can't really control his fastball right now. He's getting double-A hitters out because double-A hitters can't hit. He makes Hansen look like Rivera when it comes to fastball command.

The real question is: What does the money from Manny and Schilling that's freed up go towards?

The draft.

Thanks kevin - hitting refresh has been the order of the day for me - i didn't want to change anything!

$20M+ is going to the draft?

Best. Kansas song. Ever.

It doesn't seem like the Red Sox could spend that much more on the draft. They already seem to go after all the signability guys. It would be great to see them develop some better international scouting, though.

darren, do you remember a while back you called this (bay as manny's replacement) and i called you crazy? well, looking at hte numbers, it seems bay has completely bounced back from a bad 07 ... deal looks great to me.

Ah but they never sign all the signability guys. Now they can be sure to get those 14th rounders!

Yeah, I say a lot of stuff. I try not to remember any of it because it would be depressing how often I've been wrong. BTW, anybody got any tickets they want to unload?

$20M+ is going to the draft?

And signing Bay to an extension. And paying the guys that are going to be getting raises through arbitration. Assuming that they're going to give Lowrie the chance to claim the spot at SS, they won't have any major holes to fill. Just trying to upgrade the bench and bullpen, like every year.
Well, not any major holes that money can fix. Making a trade for Ramirez or Clement is going to be essential. Having to watch Tek play everyday for another year just make my head explode.

How many catching prospects does Texas have for Pete's sake? And none of them can beat out Laird? Does Teagarden still catch?

My preferred trade target to replace Varitek is Teagarden.

How many catching prospects does Texas have for Pete's sake? And none of them can beat out Laird? Does Teagarden still catch?

About Javier Lopez. "Fair RA" from BP accounts for inherited runners.

Numbers in this chart are first ERA, then RA, then Fair RA.

2006: 2.70, 5.40, 5.24 (in 16.7 IP)
2007: 3.10, 3.54, 4.26
2008: 2.63, 3.07, 3.06

So yeah, in the past the ERA was deceiving, but this year he has been legitimately good. And a 4.26 RA is perfectly respectable.

How about FIP?

2006: 4.77
2007: 4.22
2008: 4.35

That accords better with my impression of him. We certainly shouldn't expect him to keep putting up a sub-3 ERA, but he is far from a disaster waiting to happen.

And signing Bay to an extension. And paying the guys that are going to be getting raises through arbitration. Assuming that they're going to give Lowrie the chance to claim the spot at SS, they won't have any major holes to fill. Just trying to upgrade the bench and bullpen, like every year.

No. Just the draft. All in the draft.

i think you'd need to be a lunatic at this point to say the Manny 8/160 deal was a bad one at this point.

The $20M will probably go to whichever poor team would take the rotting carcass of Julio Lugo, although I cannot possibly imagine who that would be.

I suppose Lugo could be the newer, more expensive Cora for next year. He can sort of play 2B, right?

Good article describing how Manny really did have to go.

How many catching prospects does Texas have for Pete's sake?

All of them. MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Even if you don't want to play Lugo at 2B or 3B, you can shift Lowrie there and play him at SS.

I think the real issue with Javier Lopez has been the leveraging of his performance. You can see it in his basic platoon splits - the only times that Lopez comes in to get important outs is against LHB. He's allowed 104 and 127 OPS+ against lefties in the last two years - when he should be turning lefties into bad hitters, he's made them solidly above average. Much of Lopez's success has come in mop-up...

Hey! I just noticed the leverage splits on B-R. Sean Forman is a god. Ok, let's go to the tape...

2007: 120 OPS+ HiLev, 71 OPS+ MedLev, 84 OPS+ LoLev
2008: 150 OPS+ HiLev, 77 OPS+ MedLev, 101 OPS+ LoLev

I don't know if there's a cause behind it, but the perception that Lopez doesn't get the job done when it matters most is on target.

Also, according to Gammons' column tonight, Manny forgot which knee he claimed was bothering him before they sent him for the MRIs, thus the MRI on each knee. It's Gammons, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt, but it's out there.

More Manny moments...

-RBI single in 2005 against the Twins after the craziness, double-pointing everyone in his proximity, including most of the crowd
-the HR in the first inning of Game 3, 2004 WS
-the walk he drew off Loaiza in Game 5 to put Damon on second for Big Papi
-that walkoff single off Rivera in the first Red Sox series of 2001, just a bouncer up the middle, but that was when the Yankees seemed like a force of nature, untouchable
-the greatest postgame interview of all time
-the pose after that HR last year - I think it was philly who noted that if you raise your hands above your head, but turn your palms in or to the middle, there's a sort of tough-guy feel, but palms directly out is pure joy, no pretense

He's allowed 104 and 127 OPS+ against lefties in the last two years - when he should be turning lefties into bad hitters, he's made them solidly above average.

i dunno ... are you adjusting that for the batters he faces? if he's being brought in to face solidly above average hitters and in years past has made them into average hitters, that's not horrible. i suppose i should check to see how those numbers compare to other loogies ...

I'm very sad.

-the greatest postgame interview of all time


A great interview, but I'm not sure it can compare to this.

McAdam's clubhouse stuff was interesting, even if probably second hand. It is everything before it and after it that is complete shite.

The introduction was:

In order to trade a future Hall of Famer and acquire a player in return, the Red Sox had to agree to pay his remaining salary and include two young players.

This BS overstates Manny's status (Willie Mays was a Hall of Famer in 1972), fails to mention the value of the player the Red Sox received, and purposely muddles the issue of the other players given up (they are young, but that says nothing about their value).

Next, to claim that the Dodgers end of the trade was without risk is absurd. They get 1/3 of a season of Manny while giving a decent 3B in a year they are not very likely to do anything.

And then McAdam goes on to posit the same old sportswriter cliche about how Bay won't bat fourth because the Manny comparisons will be too great and we are yet to see Bay in the playoffs.

It can be said that when Bay takes the field for the first time in a Red Sox uniform Thursday night, he'll be also be playing in his first meaningful game in the major leagues.

Yeah all those bats when he was trying to be the best player he can be and earn the most amount of money he could during a limited career were never meaningful.

McAdams needs to get off of his Boston baseball highhorse that he and his brethren like to defend.

Yeah, to be honest the clubhouse stuff was all I actually read in the article.

I just read the article. McAdams says the Sox have virtually no chance to extend Bay because he is represented by Boras. Bay is, in fact, represented by Joe Urbon. Isn't that the kind of thing you want to double-check before you write an article?

I have heard that piece of (mis)information several times today.

Boston Globe Blog

Not sure why everyone seems to be so hesitant to put Bay in the cleanup spot. Do the majority of people really just not realize how good Bay is?

He played in Pittsburgh. They didn't even realize he existed until last night.

They played some great games in 2002 as well. Remember Terrence Long robbing a HR from the bullpen? (I think Manny might have hit it, but I'm not sure) That was during Oakland's streak if I remember correctly.

Yeah it was Manny. Only game I've ever seen at Fenway too!

Wow, I'm amazed I got that right. It was an amazing catch, and very deflating as a Red Sox fan. That stretch was when the Sox really fell behind too.

Not sure why everyone seems to be so hesitant to put Bay in the cleanup spot. Do the majority of people really just not realize how good Bay is?

Well, Dave Lefort is using RBI to compare Bay and Youkilis. Ignore who the players are batting behind or just relative team strength and it is easy for the the casual fan to overlook Bay's talents.

It will be interesting to see how the anti-Manny camp (D&C;and Shank) will react. They will probably revel in playing both sides while revealing their ignorance. "Manny had to be gone but all they could get was someone with low RBI who never did it the big market." A perfect storm for Shank, blame Manny and the FO.

Useless information.

May 30, 2004.
April 3, 2007
April 4, 2007
April 6, 2007
April 7, 2007
April 8, 2007
April 9, 2007
April 10, 2007
April 2, 2008
April 4, 2008
April 15, 2008

Those are all of the times in Jason Bay's career in which he played in a game for an better-than-.500 team.

75-87.

That's the end-of-the-season record for the best team Jason Bay has ever played in the majors. The Red Sox only need to go 15-38 in their remaining games to finish with the best record of any major league team for which Jason Bay has played.

.283 AVG, .371 OBP, .515 SLG
.276 AVG, .389 OBP, .515 SLG

Those are Jason Bay's career numbers against righties and lefties respectively. This is a man with very small splits on average (although he does have a reverse split this year).

I can't believe the Sox ended up with a deal this good. I'd call this a mild win and I was expecting a clear loss.

I don't know what to think of Bay's defense. The advanced metrics can't seem to decide if he's pretty bad or a little above average

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-tradeeval073108&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

The Red Sox are happy that they acquired Jason Bay whose average (.282), on-base percentage (.375) and slugging percentage (.519) are only slightly lower than Manny Ramirez's (.299, .398, and .529) and Bay will not create the headaches for management and teammates.

Unlike Griffey in Cincinnati or Manny Ramirez in Los Angeles, AccuScore does not expect this trade to have a significant impact on the Red Sox' post-season chances.

BOSTON RED SOX WIN DIV PLAYOFFS
WITH MANNY / WITHOUT BAY 26.7% 53.0%
WITHOUT MANNY / WITH BAY 26.2% 52.4%
TRADE IMPACT -0.5% -0.6%

Their chances of winning the AL East is half a percent lower after the trade which is not a significant change. The Red Sox winning percentage against key competition in the American League is unchanged with Jason Bay as the regular left-fielder.

With Tampa Bay not showing signs of letting up and the Yankees getting better by the day, the defending World Series champion Red Sox have just a 52 percent chance of even making the playoffs. If they can get into the playoffs they are given a strong 15 percent chance of winning the World Series. However, as of today their overall chance of repeating is just 7.5 percent.

This is a good move. I'm not worried about losing Moss. The Sox have Van Every and Bailey crushing the ball in Pawtucket, plus Chris Carter hitting pretty well. None of those guys is likely to be an every day star, but neither is Moss. He's probably the least talented of the three throw-in M's (Murton, Murphy and Moss) they've traded in the last few years. I'm sure he can be a great 4th outfielder, or a marginal starting player, and maybe even have a really good year or two. I don't think he'll end up any better than Troy O'Leary was, and O'Leary was a scrap heap signing. Hansen might develop, but he might not. At this point in his career, he's probably not any better than Chris Smith. Also, by trading two young players from the 40-man roster, the Sox are in a good position to make a waiver deal without risking losing anyone else.

I'm not sure Bay is better than Ramirez in the short term. It's really close, and I'd probably go with Bay at this point. Going forward, they've locked into a great player for one more year at low salary and have lost two fringe players who might stick with the big league team next year, but in unimportant roles, and who are both out of options, so they'd have to stick in the majors next year. If they were going to keep both those guys next year, it was going to hurt their roster flexibility.

BOSTON RED SOX WIN DIV PLAYOFFS
WITH MANNY / WITHOUT BAY 26.7% 53.0%
WITHOUT MANNY / WITH BAY 26.2% 52.4%
TRADE IMPACT -0.5% -0.6%

FWIW Pecota still has the Sox at 69.8% to make the playoffs.

I like this trade, and I like Bay.

However, can we fully exclude 2007 as the outlier it looks like?:
2007 28 PIT NL 145 538 78 133 25 2 21 84 4 1 59 141 .247 .327 .418

Anyone remember if there was any reasons for the ineffectiveness? A low BABIP, sure, but his walk-rate collapsed as well. Pressing?

Bay had a knee problem that he played through in 2007.

Manny. My second favorite Red Sox player (in-my-lifetime division), behind only Wakefield. Very sad to see him go, but sadder to see his circus turn icky. I hope he plays great for the rest of his career. I hope Boston fans remember him well.


Bay: welcome aboard son! Just play ball, and you'll be fine.

Bay had a knee problem that he played through in 2007.

In hindsight, that was mentioned, but at the time... Bay himself claimed that it didn't affect his hitting, only his fielding, and it didn't start to get sore until late in the season, IIRC. Not that it couldn't have troubled him before he admitted it, of course.

What worries me about the line is not the BA (which seems a little unlucky) or even the power (which could easily be attributed to knee niggles), but the sudden loss of plate discipline. That's why I thought pressing.

Bay had a knee problem that he played through in 2007.

In hindsight, that was mentioned, but at the time... Bay himself claimed that it didn't affect his hitting, only his fielding, and it didn't start to get sore until late in the season, IIRC. Not that it couldn't have troubled him before he admitted it, of course.

What worries me about the line is not the BA (which seems a little unlucky) or even the power (which could easily be attributed to knee niggles), but the sudden loss of plate discipline. That's why I thought pressing.

Well, Bay was actually amazing through the first two months of the season, it wasn't until June that his numbers started to dive (coincidentally, when his knee started to bother him.) The fact that he's reverted to his usually patient self this year leads me to believe that last year was just an outlier.

What worries me about the line is not the BA (which seems a little unlucky) or even the power (which could easily be attributed to knee niggles), but the sudden loss of plate discipline. That's why I thought pressing.

Well, sometimes when one skill goes, a player makes some adjustment and it shows up a different place than you'd expect it in the stats.

Anyways, there are lots of guys who have one off-year in the middle of their careers that doesn't seem to make any sense since they bounce back for the next several years like it never happened - Lowell and Burrell come to mind right off the top of my head. I'm not too worried about this.

He's clutch!

He seems to even be as clutch as the guy with the .269 .376 .513 postseason line.

I am going to edit this thread intro a little later to note something I just noticed: Bay has played some CF in the past couple years and he's been brutally awful there--in the -30 range per UZR. It's so consistently different than his LF #s that I suspect it's not relevant to how he'll play in LF, but it's worth at least taking into account.

One little thing. Bay's post-game interview last night was adorable.

Heidi: You got a standing ovation in your first at-bat. What was that like?
Bay: Uh... flattering... a little uncomfortable

In Theo's post-trade press conference, he specifically states that he believes Bay's 2007 was injury-plagued and not predictive of Bay's future performance.

He also acknowledges that he made the deal "from a difficult starting point". Bit of an understatement.

I'm just here to help out! Yeah right, meat.

SG crunched the numbers on the Manny/Bay comparison as well over at RLYW, and concluded that they remarkably equal going forward.

I'd add it wasn't quite a scrubbed, central casting, "I'm just here to help out." It was an earnest, awkward, "I'm all about helping out." And am I crazy, or does his "out" have just a teensy bit of McKenzie in it?

SG crunched the numbers on the Manny/Bay comparison as well over at RLYW, and concluded that they remarkably equal going forward.

Link: SG's article. Thanks for the heads-up, Darren.

Edit: Interesting conclusion. SG's numbers have them roughly equal not, but not b/c of a difference in fielding numbers.

SG's article was interesting, but I don't buy those fielding numbers for a second, sorry. Not when UZR and Plus/Minus both have Bay's LF defense as average to above average outside of 2007. In fact, IIRC, UZR even has Bay as +3/150 in 2007.

This was mentioned in the main board discussion, but I just checked it out this morning. The SoSH tribute, all images of Manny, is pretty great. I miss that man. There was a comment by Maalox that seemed on point-

Please do not misinterpret the following as any kind of attempt at rational baseball analysis:

We made a big mistake.