Midseason in Review: Expectations vs. Reality

With the traditional halfway point of the All-Star Break approaching, I thought it would be a good time too look back at what’s happened so far vs. what we expected or worried about in the preseason.

Starting Pitching: There were three very big question marks in the rotation as the season began: Schilling’s health, Beckett’s adjustment to the AL, and which Clement we would see. Schilling has passed every test so far, and even though his stuff doesn’t look as dominant as it did a few years ago, he’s still able to pile up strikeouts, keep guys off base, and limit the damage of the HRs he allows. That’s where the good news ends. Beckett has had a few games where he’s looked like the dominant pitcher that we emptied the farm system for. But, for the most part, he’s served up BP for the opposing lineups. Is he hurt? Is it an NL/AL thing? Tek’s gamecalling? Whatever, the reason, he’s pitching like a #4, not the #2 that we need. Clement’s troubles have been another story. It seems pretty obvious to me that he’s not healhty this year. If he can get back to health, I think he’ll be a fine league average pitcher.

Others: Wake’s been what’s expected, Lester is holding his own nicely, and Johnson’s on the way out.

DH: Ortiz seems determined to prove he’s worth that ridiculous extension. So far, so amazing.

Infield: I think the big question here is how the Youkilis/Snow/Lowell would be deployed? How effective would it be? As it turns out, Francona far surpassed my expectations by playing Youkilis fulltime out of the gate, and Youkilis has rewarded him with a .301/.406/.474 line. He’s also played strong enough defense that he doesn’t need to be replaced in the late innings. Lowell has recovered from his horrible year, as predicted by projections but doubted by the worriers among us. His strong play helped to make Snow expendable as well.

Others: Loretta and Gonzalez have delivered as advertised, with perhaps a bit less power than expected. Overall the infield has gone about as well as you could hope.

Outfield: Manny has been as advertised and Trot’s given about what you’d expect, although with more singles/walks and less homers. The big acquisition of the offseason, Coco, has been a disappointment so far. Between his missed time and slump in recent weeks, he has not looked like the star I was anticipating. But he’s picked up in the past few games and I think he’ll turn it around hit something like .300/.360/.460 the rest of the year. Add in the good defense and that’s great. Wily Mo is an enigma. He looks like a great hitter but a horrible fielder. But then again, he hasn’t looked bad in CF. He or Coco should probably be traded at some point.

Bullpen: The FA signings have fallen on their faces yet again. It’s amazing that they can so perfectly pinpoint pitchers who have pitched effectively but are poised for a huge fall. They might consider trying the Costanza strategy of doing the opposite of whatever they deem to be a good move. Luckily, they seem to be doing a good job of developing young arms for the pen. Delcarmen and Hansen look solid for the #3 and #4 men, to compliment Timlin (the one FA who has worked out) and the great Papelbon. Paps has been amazing and lucky, so I’d expect more good stuff for the 2nd half, but a reasonable dropoff. The big bummer has been Foulke, who’s health has betrayed him again. The 04 playoffs were worth it, even if they have meant he’s not been good the past 2 years. I still think he could come back and be pretty good toward the end of this year, though.

The Manager: I hate the lineup--Papi would have 100 RBIs with Youks/Trot/Manny in front of him. I hate the overmanaging of the pen--it will cost us games and wear guys down by the end of the year. But as MCoA and others keep pointing out, Francona has done a great job on the biggest decisions he’s had to make this year. He put Paps in the closer role; he put Youks in the lineup fulltime (and eventually at leadoff); and he gave Wily Mo a chance in CF. Give him an A- so far, as maddening as he is to watch.

Outlook: The Red Sox are on pace for 101 despite playing 11 more road games than home games. Having projected them for something like 97 wins this year, I couldn’t be happier with the results so far. The big concern, though, is that the Yankees have kept pace despite their injuries (those gutty gritty guys!). New York will get Sheff/Matsui back eventually, and will probably make some trades for pitching and a hitter. Toronto looks like they’re in it too. So the Red Sox will not coast into this thing, and it appears the Wild Card will go to a central team. Here’s hoping ~100 wins is enough.