Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Monday, May 26, 2008

Minor League Thread: Adam Mills Still Thinks He’s a Prospect

After dominating college hitting in 07 with a 1.01 ERA, Adam Mills had to wait until the 8th round to hear his name called in the Major League draft. He quickly signed and pitched about as well as you could for Lowell in the Penn League to finish out the year, although 3 HR in 35 IP was a bit poor. That seemingly did little to improve opinions of him, as at the start of 08, the Red Sox sent him to the pitching Siberia known as Lancaster. Not to worry, though, because after a rough start, Mills has pulled things together and is putting together a nice little year. Mills has a very handsome 4.10 ERA and has allowed only 4 HR in 52.2 IP this season. He has also only walked 10 batters, but he’s given up a frightening 60 hits and gotten only 30 Ks. Those last two numbers are a bit of a concern, but I’m inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to any pitcher who can get good results in that bandbox.

At age 23, Mills really needed to do well at A+ and move on to AA in short order (by next season or so). So far, he’s done the first part, and it’ll be fun to see if he can do the 2nd. 

Darren Posted: May 26, 2008 at 11:56 PM | 77 comment(s)
  Related News: Boston

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. Darren Posted: May 27, 2008 at 12:25 AM (#2795164)
My other favorite old non-prospect, Bubba Bell, had a big night tonight and is up to 279/361/497 in AA. He's 25 but still, that's fun for a CF.
   2. Royce Rings Heath's Bell Posted: May 27, 2008 at 12:40 AM (#2795201)
Nice of you to devote an entire thread to my cousin's former teammate at UNC Charlotte. I saw this guy throw a gem in 2006 against La Salle with some Reds scouts watching intently. I guess the Red Sox noticed, too. His K and Hit rates aren't that different from what Masterson did in Lancaster IIRC (and it's completely possible that I do not RC). Smart guys might just have to learn to pitch differently there. I think in a ballpark not on Mars he would revert back to his respectable and expected numbers. What was most impressive about his college career was a brilliant HR rate (particularly in his senior year) and BB rate, which is Madduxian.
   3. Darren Posted: May 27, 2008 at 12:48 AM (#2795218)
Funny you reference Maddux, because my expectation for him is a slightly better Maddux.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: May 27, 2008 at 12:50 AM (#2795222)
I hope you mean Greg Maddux.
A slightly better Mike Maddux would have a hard time joining Jeff Natale in the HOF
   5. Royce Rings Heath's Bell Posted: May 27, 2008 at 01:02 AM (#2795230)
Hey. Ease up on Jeff Natale.

One thing about Mills is that stuff-wise and statistical makeup wise he doesn't really have much of a ceiling left. I can imagine any projection system not looking too fondly upon him at the next level and beyond. Maybe Brian Bannister with a few more Ks is a decent comparison.
   6. Darren Posted: May 27, 2008 at 01:11 AM (#2795231)
Brian Bannister? That's crazy. He's clearly a better Mike Mussina.
   7. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: May 27, 2008 at 01:29 AM (#2795238)
I remember standing next to him at a Lowell game last year, when he was outside in street clothes, and having no clue he was a professional athlete. It took a rabid minor league autograph hound to rush up to him for me to realize he was an actual player.

Kid can pitch though.

Here's a short blurb on him from someone who attends Lancaster games:

As for the pitchers, there are a few that I have commented on, but Mills was not one of them, because earlier in the season nothing really stood out. Recently the thing that has really impressed me with Mills is his control. It's like his pitches are on a rope to the catcher. If his pitches miss the zone it isn't by much, and he has found his confidence a lot sooner than the pitchers last season found theirs.


2.28 ERA this month in ~27 IP with only 4 BB allowed.

Here's a split that bares paying attention to, however:

Bases empty: 31.1 IP, 24/6 K/BB, 29 H, 0.86 ERA
Runners on: 21.1 IP, 6/4 K/BB, 31 H, 8.86 ERA
   8. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: May 27, 2008 at 01:55 AM (#2795242)
BTW, Bubba Burger has a 1.229 OPS in May. He's been destroying the ball.

And Bard has been very good too. You've got to give him his props. He's also had one of the craziest minor league year-to-year turnarounds in a long time. He went from a 9.4 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 last year to a 1.4 BB/9 and 13.9 K/9 this year. Nuts.

If I would have told you at the beginning of the year that he could get a major league look in September, you would have called me nuts and rightfully so. Now it's definitely a possibility.
   9. The Marksist Posted: May 27, 2008 at 09:46 AM (#2795365)
Saw the Sea Dogs game on Saturday, and Bowden and Bard both looked good. Bowden got a few hard-hit outs, and since I was there with my in-laws I didn't realize just how nice a game he pitched. Bard was hitting 97-98 on the stadium gun and look good. Gave up a solid hit, and one loooong fly ball but otherwise excellent.
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 27, 2008 at 10:39 AM (#2795428)
Does Bard throw a breaking ball now? I saw him in college and he had this hideous slurve-thing that would have been laughed out of double-A. Someone said in the last thread that he's got a tight curve now - is that true? That'd be cool.

Who is Felix Doubront? 2.11 ERA, 43/3 K/BB in 42 innings at 20 in the Sally League.

It's weird with Mills and a lot of the Lancaster guys - I really just wait to see what they do in AA before making any judgment. Masterson, for instance, was really mediocre there, while Bowden killed it. I didn't have much to say about Lars and Reddick because I think there are qualitative factors in Lancaster that make any purely statistical analysis almost impossible to pull off. I'm rooting for Mills, but I'm just sort of waiting, too - his promotion schedule will probably be the best objective evidence we'll receive on his talent.
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 27, 2008 at 10:47 AM (#2795439)
My other favorite old non-prospect, Bubba Bell, had a big night tonight and is up to 279/361/497 in AA. He's 25 but still, that's fun for a CF.
How does he compare to the other non-prospect tweener who's too old for AA? Jeff Corsaletti is also 25, and he's now hitting 304/426/551 with as many walks as strikeouts. He's a level repeater, but he's also got much better overall numbers. Both Bell and Corsaletti will probably go as far as their center field gloves will take them.
   12. Darren Posted: May 27, 2008 at 11:53 PM (#2796349)
Who is Felix Doubront? 2.11 ERA, 43/3 K/BB in 42 innings at 20 in the Sally League.


Don't feel like looking it up right now, but the SOSH/Sox Prospects guys were really excited about him the year before last, and you were saying you didn't see what all the hype was about. I think I agreed with you. Also, Doubront was, IIRC, taken by someone in the Rule 5 draft and returned this year. He had a good, not great, start tonight.

Bell, on the other hand, hit a HR and a 3B tonight. .285/.365/.530 now. IIRC, he's got a good rep in CF and Corsaletti is considered more of a LF (via Temple, I think). Plus Bell is cooler looking.
   13. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: May 28, 2008 at 12:05 AM (#2796379)
Doubront was, IIRC, taken by someone in the Rule 5 draft and returned this year.
That was the other Jose Capellan. Isn't Temple one of the Doubront lovers - regardless, I'm sure he'll fill you in...
   14. Darren Posted: May 28, 2008 at 12:10 AM (#2796391)
Bad memory on my part. Whoops. Never been good with names.

And I think you're right about Temple.
   15. Hairps Posted: May 28, 2008 at 03:30 PM (#2797032)
Here's a split that bares paying attention to, however:

Bases empty: 31.1 IP, 24/6 K/BB, 29 H, 0.86 ERA
Runners on: 21.1 IP, 6/4 K/BB, 31 H, 8.86 ERA

FWIW, from his final college season:

Bases empty: 81.7 IP, 100/16 K/BB, 57 H, 0.11 ERA, 1.90 GO/AO
Runners on: 56.7, 41/11 K/BB, 36 H, 2.22 ERA, 2.17 GO/AO
   16. Cris E Posted: May 28, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#2797050)
Whoa. For a minute there I was thinking of failed Twins pick Ryan Mills and wondering if this was going to be one of those Insane Guy Living Under A Bridge Misremembers His Youth pieces.
   17. Darren Posted: May 28, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#2797297)
The only huge difference in the college numbers is the ERA, AFAICT. And doesn't it stand to reason that pitchers give up just about all of their runs (except for solo HRs) when they have men on base?
   18. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: May 28, 2008 at 07:47 PM (#2797309)
The ERA was just something I tacked on at the end of the stat-line. I was really more concerned with the collapsed K-rate and brutal hit rate.
   19. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: May 28, 2008 at 08:56 PM (#2797473)
Doubront was a low-level bonus baby out of Venezuela (150K, IIRC). He had hernia surgery prior to last season which caused him to start his season late; when he returned, he was awful. It's nice to see him bounce back.
   20. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: May 28, 2008 at 09:01 PM (#2797483)
Don't be surprised to see the Sox spend a lot of money on this year's draft. Like, a lot of money.
   21. OCD SS Posted: May 28, 2008 at 09:39 PM (#2797590)
Well, we are still waiting for that Clemens money to get spent...
   22. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: May 28, 2008 at 09:43 PM (#2797603)
They spent that. Are you not familiar with Coca-Cola corner?
   23. kevin Posted: May 28, 2008 at 09:50 PM (#2797628)
This should be a pretty good draft for the Sox, despite picking last. They have two sandwich picks, plus they should be able to pull a couple of guys who fall because of signability issues.
   24. Mattbert Posted: May 29, 2008 at 07:25 AM (#2798147)
How does that Bases Empty vs Runners On split compare to other pitchers? I would think just about every starter would have a similar split, although perhaps not as pronounced. In other words, couldn't we re-label it a Pitching Well vs Pitching Poorly split and have it be just as instructive? What does that actually tell us beyond a cursory glance at Mills' ability to pitch out of the stretch?

(I'm going to check ESPN's splits for Boston's SPs last year. They break it down by ABs instead of IP, but it still gives us some idea of the pitcher's performance.)

BECKETT
Bases empty: 477 AB, 116/19 K/BB, 117 H, .676 OPS
Runners on: 295 AB, 78/21 K/BB, 72 H, .638 OPS

MATSUZAKA
Bases empty: 439 AB, 107/46 K/BB, 117 H, .777 OPS
Runners on: 337 AB, 94/34 K/BB, 74 H, .669 OPS

SCHILLING
Bases empty: 364 AB, 53/10 K/BB, 107 H, .814 OPS
Runners on: 237 AB, 48/13 K/BB, 58 H, .645 OPS

WAKEFIELD
Bases empty: 454 AB, 64/33 K/BB, 113 H, .703 OPS
Runners on: 270 AB, 46/31 K/BB, 78 H, .833 OPS

TAVAREZ
Bases empty: 315 AB, 55/24 K/BB, 74 H, .658 OPS
Runners on: 223 AB, 22/27 K/BB, 77 H, .941 OPS

LESTER
Bases empty: 140 AB, 27/19 K/BB, 35 H, .715 OPS
Runners on: 97 AB, 23/12 K/BB, 26 H, .805 OPS

Interesting that the front 3 all pitched better with runners on, while the back of the rotation all pitched worse. I'm not sure what this tells us about Mills' performance with runners on versus bases empty, especially since his sample size smaller than that of the MLB guys. Given that Mills' college split is less pronounced, I suppose I wouldn't get too worked up about his minor league struggles with runners on just yet. Moreover, I'd expect there are plenty of guys who pitch worse with runners on but are still useful major league arms. Wakefield, Tavarez, and Lester all qualified in 2007, to varying degrees of usefulness.

I didn't include ERA in the quick survey because ESPN's numbers perplexed me. Of those six Red Sox pitchers, none of their bases empty runs allowed matched up with their bases empty HR allowed. How do you score a run with the bases empty without hitting a solo HR? XBH+E? And in Schilling's case (see below), how do you give up 14 solo HR and only allow 13 runs? That's some seriously crafty veteran magic!

RUNS AND HOME RUNS ALLOWED, BASES EMPTY
Beckett: 19 R, 13 HR
Matsuzaka: 34 R, 15 HR (WTF?)
Schilling: 13 R, 14 HR (WTF?!?)
Wakefield: 22 R, 13 HR
Tavarez: 17 R, 7 HR
Lester: 6 R, 4 HR
   25. OCD SS Posted: May 29, 2008 at 07:43 AM (#2798150)
plus they should be able to pull a couple of guys who fall because of signability issues.


I'd wouldn't be surprised if the number of "signability" guys falls this year; pretty much everyone is pronouncing the slotting system to be on it's death bed. If the Pirates take Pedro Alvarez I'd expect the damn to break...

They spent that. Are you not familiar with Coca-Cola corner?


Ah, they just would've spent it on someone like Julio Lugo anyway.
   26. villageidiom Posted: May 29, 2008 at 07:48 AM (#2798153)
Mattbert, by now you should know to go to http://www.baseball-reference.com for splits.

Beckett: 13 R, 13 HR
Matsuzaka: 15 R, 15 HR
Schilling: 14 R, 14 HR
Wakefield: 13 R, 13 HR
Tavarez: 7 R, 7 HR
Lester: 4 R, 4 HR
   27. Mattbert Posted: May 29, 2008 at 07:54 AM (#2798154)
In a way, I'm still glad I went to ESPN because I would never have believed they could be that far off.
   28. kevin Posted: May 29, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#2799283)
Excellent start by Masterson in his first AAA appearance. 6 innings, one earned run. Bowden and Bard were also sharp again. Bowden and Bard should probably be in AAA as well.

I hope Bard gets called up sometime later in the summer. I'd love to see his stuff.
   29. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: May 30, 2008 at 12:20 PM (#2799659)
Do the Red Sox have a large amount of old fringe prospects compared to other systems? It seems these old players were mostly drafted as seniors. Do the Red Sox see some edge in drafting this type of player?
   30. Darren Posted: May 31, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#2800987)
They got Mills in the 8th round and his bonus was like $50K. Bell was 39th round, IIRC. They are typical gambles with picks that don't usually amount to much. With Mills, I think they saw the cahnce to get the guy who had just put up the best pitching season in college baseball.
   31. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:23 PM (#2810391)
Don't look now but Lowrie's up to 303/422/485 in AAA.
   32. Dan Posted: June 06, 2008 at 10:17 PM (#2810470)
I'm sure I sound like a broken record, but how much longer can Lowrie continue to hit in AAA while Lugo continues to suck on both sides of the ball?
   33. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 06, 2008 at 10:27 PM (#2810480)
Jason Place might be onto something.
   34. Dan Posted: June 06, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2810484)
Jason Place might be onto something.

What's that?
   35. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#2810495)
I think Jason might be placed onto waivers.
   36. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 06, 2008 at 10:43 PM (#2810507)
He's made significant improvements in his short time in Lancaster. He's striking out less, showing more patience, and putting much more consistent swings on the ball. The fruits of his labor will be revealing themselves in the stats in due time. Everything I've heard from people who loyally attend or broadcast Jethawks games has been laudatory. They say he's basically become a different player between the beginning of the season and now.

His stats still aren't that good. But he has cut down on the K's this year, something he needed to do if he wanted to stick around professional baseball much longer. He struck out in 34% of his AB's in April and he has cut that number don to 25% since.

It was definitely a risk to send him to Lancaster from Greenville. He was obviously over-matched last year and he even admits that now. But I think he has taken a step forward, in ways Lancaster's park effects won't just artificially prop up.

He says this:
"From last year struggling to get something consistent, searching and searching and never finding anything, to having the first success in Hawaii that I'd had in a long time [is great]. For me, it's all about consistency. For the first time in a long time, I'm taking the same swing on every pitch. I really feel like I have a chance to hit every pitch that's thrown in the strike zone."

I was skeptical when that article came out last month, but I'm starting to become a believer.
   37. kevin Posted: June 06, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2810522)
Yeah, he's really been pounding the ball lately. His stats are approaching the prospect range now.

I saw a little bit of him in ST and thought he was a good-looking outfielder.

(He's batting leadoff tonight and walked in his first AB).
   38. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 07, 2008 at 07:09 AM (#2810849)
Since May 1st (143 AB's), Place is hitting .273/.346/.517.
   39. tfbg9 Posted: June 07, 2008 at 08:27 AM (#2810862)
WAKEFIELD
Bases empty: 454 AB, 64/33 K/BB, 113 H, .703 OPS
Runners on: 270 AB, 46/31 K/BB, 78 H, .833 OPS


Choke!
   40. Darren Posted: June 07, 2008 at 08:27 AM (#2810864)
What the heck is he doing in high A, striking out like crazy like that? He'd be a perfectly normal age for A ball.

I don't see what all the optimism is about. A 25% K rate is good news? A 860 OPS is good news?
   41. kevin Posted: June 07, 2008 at 08:31 AM (#2810867)
A 860 OPS is good news?


He had a god-awful swing that had to be corrected. It looks like he's made some critical adjustment and is starting to rake. maybe he still strikes out a lot but it should also be noted that 40% of his hits have been for extras too.
   42. OCD SS Posted: June 07, 2008 at 09:59 AM (#2810897)
maybe he still strikes out a lot but it should also be noted that 40% of his hits have been for extras too.


Some guys are always going to strike out a lot; Place as a prospect reminds me a bit of Brandon Wood (not so much stats, but by description) but with better defense at his position. His power was noticeable before he was drafted: a friend of mines son was in the '06 draft with place, so had seen him at some workouts and was amazed that a highschool kid was generating so much power in batting practice (and making some of the college hitters look bad).
   43. Mattbert Posted: June 07, 2008 at 10:13 AM (#2810905)
Choke!

Heh. What took you so long?

Wakefield's career splits in that department are pretty normal: .731 bases empty, .763 with runners on, .737 RISP.
   44. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 07, 2008 at 10:22 AM (#2810914)
I don't see what all the optimism is about. A 25% K rate is good news? A 860 OPS is good news?
Yea, they are.
   45. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 07, 2008 at 10:26 AM (#2810918)
They're good news because Jason Place has been a black hole of suck ever since entering the Red Sox organization. A month or two of being pretty ok, if not exactly good, is big progress. It's important to note, though, that Place is still a long way away from being as good a prospect as he was when the Sox drafted him.
   46. kevin Posted: June 07, 2008 at 10:33 AM (#2810919)
Place went 2 for 4 last night with a walk and a jack. He's now up to .238/.324/.421 and is hitting .390 in his last 10 games.

He's back in the prospect box.
   47. Chip Posted: June 07, 2008 at 10:39 AM (#2810921)
Interesting that the front 3 all pitched better with runners on, while the back of the rotation all pitched worse.


It's the difference between guys who can get strikeouts when they need them versus guys who put a lot more balls in play.
   48. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 07, 2008 at 11:11 AM (#2810933)
Dustin Richardson is struggling right now, which is too bad. I was hoping he could replace Javier Lopez next year.
   49. Darren Posted: June 07, 2008 at 11:29 AM (#2810944)
They're good news only compared to how awful he's been. 25% K rate and 860 OPS during a short recent stint in a hitters' paradise is barely average, if that.
   50. Dan Posted: June 07, 2008 at 07:41 PM (#2811275)
6 scoreless so far for Zink tonight.

Lowrie 1-2 with a double and a sac fly.

Carter 1-3 with a 2 run home run.
   51. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 07, 2008 at 07:48 PM (#2811278)
They're good news only compared to how awful he's been. 25% K rate and 860 OPS during a short recent stint in a hitters' paradise is barely average, if that.
Incorrect, but whatever.

BTW, there's no excuse for the Asheville Tourists' ballpark, McCormick Field, to still be in use. When you talk about the all-time bad jobs, this is one of them. This wouldn't even pass as a Babe Ruth stadium. I don't care how historic it is, it's a disgrace.

Shame on the city of Asheville, the state of North Carolina, and Minor League Baseball for this abomination.
   52. kevin Posted: June 07, 2008 at 08:51 PM (#2811312)
Shame on the city of Asheville, the state of North Carolina, and Minor League Baseball for this abomination.


You ever bee to Asheville, Temple? It's not exactly ground central for sports fan activism.

Now, if you want a gay rights parade going...
   53. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: June 07, 2008 at 08:58 PM (#2811313)
When I saw this thread, my initial thought was that this was in fact Alan Mills.
   54. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 07, 2008 at 09:00 PM (#2811315)
You ever bee to Asheville, Temple? It's not exactly ground central for sports fan activism.

373 to CF, 320 to RCF, 297 down the line should be criminal.
   55. Darren Posted: June 07, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2811366)
Incorrect, but whatever.


Is that not below average? What's average in that league?
   56. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 07, 2008 at 10:56 PM (#2811388)
If you're going to use context in one instance, you need to be consistent. An .860 OPS for a 20 year old in high-A would not be average.

Edit: 3 walks tonight, btw.
   57. Darren Posted: June 07, 2008 at 11:19 PM (#2811419)
Fair enough. Just to be clear, you're saying that's above average performance for a 20-year-old in Lancaster?

Again I'll ask, why is he there? Why didn't they put him in Greenville? (Really, I'm asking).
   58. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 07, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#2811436)
Because he showed enough in the HWL and ST where they thought he could be challenged in high-A.

Between 2000-2005, 50 20-year olds collected 200 or more AB's in the Cal league. 12 of those players were able to put an OPS of .850 or over. Of those 12, 11 have played in the majors and the other one, Chris Lubanski, will play in the majors. Of course, this assumes that Place gets to that level by the time the season ends, which isn't far-fetched, but also not guaranteed. Funnily, that .850 mark is a decent cut-off point, because the players on the list below that mark are almost all filler or quadruple-A players.
   59. kevin Posted: June 08, 2008 at 12:02 PM (#2811679)
Another guy who looks like he's back in prospect play is Bryce Cox. After having a horrible year last year, he put this line up before being bumped up to Lancaster:

24.0 21 6 4 0 3 23 1.50
   60. Mattbert Posted: June 09, 2008 at 06:10 AM (#2812529)
Is that IP, H, R, ER, HR, BB, K, ERA?
   61. kevin Posted: June 09, 2008 at 07:25 AM (#2812539)
Correctamundo, Mattbert.
   62. villageidiom Posted: June 09, 2008 at 07:45 AM (#2812548)
A K/BB ratio above 7? OK, I'm interested.

Since this isn't the "Try To Enjoy This" thread... How many players have the latter-day Red Sox had in their system who haven't been able to measure up to what was thought of them when they were drafted? When I read things about Place and a few others, it always seems like the players who struggle manage to find their way to success. I know in Place's case the turnaround is a small sample, but even before this latest anecdote I've been getting the impression that this organization knows how to develop players. Thoughts? Counterexamples?
   63. kevin Posted: June 09, 2008 at 07:56 AM (#2812554)
Murphy? Abe Alvarez.

I'm reaching a little here but they both were considered something of a disappointment.
   64. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: June 09, 2008 at 08:35 AM (#2812568)
Bard has been disappointing - although it looked like he may have discovered something in A ball, he's having some trouble adjusting to AA. Hansen may turn into something, but I'm still skeptical. I don't know how highly Dobies and Hottovy were really thought of, but they haven't done so well, either. If you go a little further back, there's a bunch of guys - Phil Dumatrait, Rick Asadoorian, Brad Baker.

Still, the Red Sox seem to be pretty good at developing guys. That 2005 draft class looks pretty good right now. I wouldn't mind seeing a little more Jed Lowrie.
   65. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 09, 2008 at 08:44 AM (#2812573)
I don't think Bryce Cox has rehabilitated himself. Or, at least, his stats don't point in that direction. He's already shown he can get A-ball hitters out, and he's a 23-year-old reliever. Until Cox starts getting outs in the high minors, I don't have much to say. It's not like Bard, who had previously been unable to get outs in A-ball, and who is now doing his thing in Portland - Cox is just repeating a level we already knew he could handle.

In terms of "failures" out of the draft, Jon Egan was a disappointment. There was that $1M late rounder from Georgia that never learned to pitch. Mickey Hall ain't done nothing. Overall, though, the Sox draft record is insanely good, and due for significant regression to the mean - no one's that good. Limiting it to the draft is somewhat misleading, though, becuase the Red Sox have had failure after failure from their international program. Soto and Galvez got significant bonuses and did nothing at all, for instance. Tejeda's had a lost season so far, and really no one since Anibal has lived up to any expectation at all. Don't know what the problem is. But in all likelihood they'll start developing some of their international signings to make up in part for likely slowdown in the drafted talent pipeline.
   66. villageidiom Posted: June 09, 2008 at 09:09 PM (#2813431)
Cox is just repeating a level we already knew he could handle.

Well, yes. He was on the DL twice last year, including after his month in Portland. I am willing to cut him some slack because of that, but, yeah, going back down to A ball isn't a good sign.

Overall, though, the Sox draft record is insanely good, and due for significant regression to the mean - no one's that good.

Are you talking about their record of scouting amateur talent (that feeds the draft) or developing the players they've signed? You specifically mentioned the draft (and international signings), but I'm looking more for the latter.

Epstein suggested before the draft that they were confident enough in their development program that they could take more risks in the draft; Keith Law's comments (or at least how I read them) indicate that he thinks they did just that - taking players who will deliver high upside if they develop well. I'm trying to understand how much of their success is from scouting/drafting and how much is from development.
   67. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 11, 2008 at 07:19 AM (#2815130)
Lin looks good for a prospect right now. He's 19 and playing good all-around baseball in Greenville.

Chiang... ugh. Hasn't met a fastball he didtn' like.
   68. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 11, 2008 at 07:50 AM (#2815137)
Are you talking about their record of scouting amateur talent (that feeds the draft) or developing the players they've signed? You specifically mentioned the draft (and international signings), but I'm looking more for the latter.
I don't know if there's any way to disaggregate the two. Amateur scouting and player development are very different things, but absent a 10+ year data set, I have no idea how I'd figure out which is which, based on the success or failure of minor league players.

I guess if they ran a Royals-style "teach baseball to athletes" camp, you could guess that they were more skilled in development, but the high-upside talents the Sox have been signing have had perfectly ok baseball skills to begin with, so that doesn't really fit.

EDIT: My comments fit either way, I think. If it's the case that the Red Sox drafts have been perfectly average, but they've just done incredibly well at developing minor leaguers already in the system, I would say that no one's that good at development either.
   69. villageidiom Posted: June 11, 2008 at 08:08 AM (#2815140)
My comments fit either way, I think.

Yeah. I'm not questioning the veracity of your comment... I'm just looking for opinion on the development system. They've had a lot of guys come out of the minors, but is it only a product of drafting well (i.e development system = not screw up the high talent they drafted), developing well (i.e. development system = improve the success rate for the players they drafted), or both? I think, as you note, that it's hard to handle this analytically; but I'm OK with a reasoned opinion instead of number-crunching.
   70. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 11, 2008 at 08:19 AM (#2815142)
but the high-upside talents the Sox have been signing have had perfectly ok baseball skills to begin with

Jason Place?
   71. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 11, 2008 at 08:38 AM (#2815153)
I'm just looking for opinion on the development system. They've had a lot of guys come out of the minors, but is it only a product of drafting well (i.e development system = not screw up the high talent they drafted), developing well (i.e. development system = improve the success rate for the players they drafted), or both?
Well, the stark dichotomy between international signings and drafted talents suggests either that (a) the Red Sox strength is in drafting, (b) the Red Sox have, maybe, much poorer Spanish-language instruction, or (c) some combination of those along with random chance.

And I think I somewhat misleadingly used a bunch of statistical jargon in my post - I think it's going to be almost impossible, absent in-depth ethnographic work, to separate drafting and development for the purposes of a reasoned opinion. As long as all we have are the outcomes of the system, and the barest hints of what actually goes on in the day-to-day of instruction, I don't really know how we're going to make a confident distinction.
   72. JB H Posted: June 11, 2008 at 09:17 AM (#2815181)
What's the story on Yamaico Navarro? His performance in the states has been pretty nifty so far and his soxprospects bio says he's a legit SS. But then they have him ranked 36th in the system, ten spots behind Aaron Bates
   73. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 11, 2008 at 03:53 PM (#2815686)
Navarro's nifty stat line is basically a function of his last week - he's hitting 424/472/939 in June. So my guess is that he wasn't doing much of anything in Greenville until just recently, and his rating hasn't reflected his surge yet.

I am also, generally, interested to hear more about Navarro from any of the knowledgeable people.
   74. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 13, 2008 at 10:02 PM (#2819281)
Navarro is a legit SS. The people who saw him in ST said he looked excellent in the field and the 5 or so games I've seen of Greenville this year have also been impressive. He got a little overshadowed last year in Lowell because of the Tejeda hype, but BA actually ranked him in the top 20 NYPL prospects (#12). Here's what they said:
Navarro, who played the entire season at 19 against mostly players with college experience, began the year at shortstop before sliding to third base to accommodate Tejeda. Like Tejeda, Navarro flashed impressive tools across the board.

Navarro is an aggressive hitter who swings violently at everything. He's mostly a gap-to-gap hitter with some power, especially to the opposite field.

He's a more polished defender than Tejeda and throws well from a three-quarters slot, but like Tejeda he needs to improve on making backhand plays in the hole. He has good speed but doesn't always run balls out, and he sometimes displays a bit too much flash. Still, he usually brings passion and energy to the park.

"He was electric. He could be like Edgar Renteria," an scout with a National League club said. "He just put on a show, in bunches, and showed some raw power and some tools."
He'll definitely be Top 20 by season's end.

------

Another prospect to watch out for is Jethawks reliever Richie Lentz. Lentz was drafted in the 19th round of the 2006 draft and given a $150,000 bonus to forego eligibility at U-Washington. It was seen as a risk at the time because he had TJ surgery in 2005 and only threw 9 innings in 2006.

Since May 1st, these are his numbers at Lancaster: 26 IP, 17 H, 2.42 ERA, 42/12 K/BB

He's been between 93-99 all year and his changeup has really improved. He'll probably be in the Portland BP by year's end.
   75. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 20, 2008 at 10:05 AM (#2826832)
Curt Schilling was on WEEI and announced that he will have surgery Monday and that his shoulder/arm might have more trouble than previously thought. Most likely has thrown his last pitch.
   76. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: June 20, 2008 at 10:30 AM (#2826858)
In his weekly interview on WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan show, the Red Sox righthander discussed the decision to go under the knife, and said that there was a "pretty decent chance that I've thrown my last pitch forever" (Globe)
   77. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 24, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2830608)
Some player to watch from the NYPL and GCL:

NYPL:
Ryan Dent- 1S pick last season. A MIF with speed and a little pop. He's 19, so he's still very young for a league normally populated by college players.

Will Middlebrooks- Received the highest bonus of anybody from last year's Sox draft. Still pretty raw and had trouble adjusting to wood in XST. The early word on him is that he's out of sorts at the plate: taking pitches down the middle and swinging at breaking balls out of the zone. Still, it's only 20 AB's and he's 19 years old.

Brock Huntzinger- The Sox quasi-surprise 3rd round pick last season. He's been decent early on: 10 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 11/1 K/BB. It's a pitcher's league, but that's still impressive for someone in their first year out of high school.

Stolmy Pimentel- The youngest player on the team, 18, Pimentel is a Dominican pitcher who has shown the ability in his young career to strike a lot of people out and get a lot of ground balls. He's only had one start so far, but he's done exactly that: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 6/1 K/BB, 7/1 GO/AO

Michael Lee- Lee is just one of those guys you have a feeling about. He's got a great frame (6'6", 190) and good raw stuff (mid-90's fastball and a developing breaking ball and changeup). He dominated his only appearance so far (6 batters faced, 5 K's) and is someone to keep an eye on.

Some others to watch include Yeiper Castillo (RHP), Luis Sumoza (OF), Kyle Weiland (RHP), and Hunter Strickland (RHP).

GCL:

Michael Almanzar- The Sox big bonus baby magically shrunk two inches over the winter and is now listed at 6'3" and 190 pounds. He's got excellent raw power, but he's been a singles hitter very early on. Only 17, Almanzar is raw in most facets of the game. He's already moved to 3B, though he was drafted as a SS. He's got a strong arm and athleticism, so I would imagine they would leave him there for a while unless he is really horrible. He has had 2 hits in every game the GCL Sox have played so far.

Swen Huijer- Not a prospect in the truest sense, but he's a 6'9", 17-year old pitcher from Haarlem (the Netherlands). You gotta root for someone like that.

Chia-Chu Chen
- The Sox smaller Taiwanese splash last year, Chen is a small-framed catcher with good defensive skills.

More prospects should come on to the scene as the Sox actually sign some of their high schoolers from this year's draft.
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

My Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Kooky Lineups
(27 - 10:22am, Aug 30)

Who Can I Blame for This?
(8 - 12:06am, Aug 30)

Last Waltz at the Stadium
(31 - 7:10pm, Aug 28)

Why Won't These Teams Lose?
(49 - 3:58pm, Aug 26)

Daisuke Then and Now
(27 - 6:06pm, Aug 24)

19-17
(25 - 11:22pm, Aug 15)

That Was Brilliant
(60 - 4:07am, Aug 11)

Magnum Opus
(104 - 1:24pm, Aug 03)

Trade Deadline Thread
(414 - 7:03am, Aug 01)

Vivid Seats is a sports ticket broker, concert ticket broker and theater ticket broker offering the best baseball tickets like Yankees tickets, Cubs tickets, and Red Sox tickets, as well as Police reunion tour tickets and Jersey Boys tickets.

Ticket Nest sells Braves, Cubs, Padres, Indians, Marlins, Nuts, Pirates, Rangers, Patriots, Royals, Stars, Tides, Tigers, Twins, Phillies, Wings, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers tickets, and Dragons tickets.

Buy Cheap MLB Tickets

Concerts Theatre NFL Angels Dodgers MLB Celtics Theater NBA Tickets Venues NHL Lakers Tickets NFL Yankees NHL Phillies NBA Wicked Marlins MLB Concerts Cubs Mets Red Sox Wicked WWE Red Sox Mets Yankees Dodgers

Page rendered in 0.6954 seconds
62 querie(s) executed