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A slightly better Mike Maddux would have a hard time joining Jeff Natale in the HOF
One thing about Mills is that stuff-wise and statistical makeup wise he doesn't really have much of a ceiling left. I can imagine any projection system not looking too fondly upon him at the next level and beyond. Maybe Brian Bannister with a few more Ks is a decent comparison.
Kid can pitch though.
Here's a short blurb on him from someone who attends Lancaster games:
2.28 ERA this month in ~27 IP with only 4 BB allowed.
Here's a split that bares paying attention to, however:
Bases empty: 31.1 IP, 24/6 K/BB, 29 H, 0.86 ERA
Runners on: 21.1 IP, 6/4 K/BB, 31 H, 8.86 ERA
And Bard has been very good too. You've got to give him his props. He's also had one of the craziest minor league year-to-year turnarounds in a long time. He went from a 9.4 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 last year to a 1.4 BB/9 and 13.9 K/9 this year. Nuts.
If I would have told you at the beginning of the year that he could get a major league look in September, you would have called me nuts and rightfully so. Now it's definitely a possibility.
Who is Felix Doubront? 2.11 ERA, 43/3 K/BB in 42 innings at 20 in the Sally League.
It's weird with Mills and a lot of the Lancaster guys - I really just wait to see what they do in AA before making any judgment. Masterson, for instance, was really mediocre there, while Bowden killed it. I didn't have much to say about Lars and Reddick because I think there are qualitative factors in Lancaster that make any purely statistical analysis almost impossible to pull off. I'm rooting for Mills, but I'm just sort of waiting, too - his promotion schedule will probably be the best objective evidence we'll receive on his talent.
Don't feel like looking it up right now, but the SOSH/Sox Prospects guys were really excited about him the year before last, and you were saying you didn't see what all the hype was about. I think I agreed with you. Also, Doubront was, IIRC, taken by someone in the Rule 5 draft and returned this year. He had a good, not great, start tonight.
Bell, on the other hand, hit a HR and a 3B tonight. .285/.365/.530 now. IIRC, he's got a good rep in CF and Corsaletti is considered more of a LF (via Temple, I think). Plus Bell is cooler looking.
That was the other Jose Capellan. Isn't Temple one of the Doubront lovers - regardless, I'm sure he'll fill you in...
And I think you're right about Temple.
FWIW, from his final college season:
Bases empty: 81.7 IP, 100/16 K/BB, 57 H, 0.11 ERA, 1.90 GO/AO
Runners on: 56.7, 41/11 K/BB, 36 H, 2.22 ERA, 2.17 GO/AO
(I'm going to check ESPN's splits for Boston's SPs last year. They break it down by ABs instead of IP, but it still gives us some idea of the pitcher's performance.)
BECKETT
Bases empty: 477 AB, 116/19 K/BB, 117 H, .676 OPS
Runners on: 295 AB, 78/21 K/BB, 72 H, .638 OPS
MATSUZAKA
Bases empty: 439 AB, 107/46 K/BB, 117 H, .777 OPS
Runners on: 337 AB, 94/34 K/BB, 74 H, .669 OPS
SCHILLING
Bases empty: 364 AB, 53/10 K/BB, 107 H, .814 OPS
Runners on: 237 AB, 48/13 K/BB, 58 H, .645 OPS
WAKEFIELD
Bases empty: 454 AB, 64/33 K/BB, 113 H, .703 OPS
Runners on: 270 AB, 46/31 K/BB, 78 H, .833 OPS
TAVAREZ
Bases empty: 315 AB, 55/24 K/BB, 74 H, .658 OPS
Runners on: 223 AB, 22/27 K/BB, 77 H, .941 OPS
LESTER
Bases empty: 140 AB, 27/19 K/BB, 35 H, .715 OPS
Runners on: 97 AB, 23/12 K/BB, 26 H, .805 OPS
Interesting that the front 3 all pitched better with runners on, while the back of the rotation all pitched worse. I'm not sure what this tells us about Mills' performance with runners on versus bases empty, especially since his sample size smaller than that of the MLB guys. Given that Mills' college split is less pronounced, I suppose I wouldn't get too worked up about his minor league struggles with runners on just yet. Moreover, I'd expect there are plenty of guys who pitch worse with runners on but are still useful major league arms. Wakefield, Tavarez, and Lester all qualified in 2007, to varying degrees of usefulness.
I didn't include ERA in the quick survey because ESPN's numbers perplexed me. Of those six Red Sox pitchers, none of their bases empty runs allowed matched up with their bases empty HR allowed. How do you score a run with the bases empty without hitting a solo HR? XBH+E? And in Schilling's case (see below), how do you give up 14 solo HR and only allow 13 runs? That's some seriously crafty veteran magic!
RUNS AND HOME RUNS ALLOWED, BASES EMPTY
Beckett: 19 R, 13 HR
Matsuzaka: 34 R, 15 HR (WTF?)
Schilling: 13 R, 14 HR (WTF?!?)
Wakefield: 22 R, 13 HR
Tavarez: 17 R, 7 HR
Lester: 6 R, 4 HR
I'd wouldn't be surprised if the number of "signability" guys falls this year; pretty much everyone is pronouncing the slotting system to be on it's death bed. If the Pirates take Pedro Alvarez I'd expect the damn to break...
Ah, they just would've spent it on someone like Julio Lugo anyway.
Beckett: 13 R, 13 HR
Matsuzaka: 15 R, 15 HR
Schilling: 14 R, 14 HR
Wakefield: 13 R, 13 HR
Tavarez: 7 R, 7 HR
Lester: 4 R, 4 HR
I hope Bard gets called up sometime later in the summer. I'd love to see his stuff.
What's that?
His stats still aren't that good. But he has cut down on the K's this year, something he needed to do if he wanted to stick around professional baseball much longer. He struck out in 34% of his AB's in April and he has cut that number don to 25% since.
It was definitely a risk to send him to Lancaster from Greenville. He was obviously over-matched last year and he even admits that now. But I think he has taken a step forward, in ways Lancaster's park effects won't just artificially prop up.
He says this:
I was skeptical when that article came out last month, but I'm starting to become a believer.
I saw a little bit of him in ST and thought he was a good-looking outfielder.
(He's batting leadoff tonight and walked in his first AB).
Choke!
I don't see what all the optimism is about. A 25% K rate is good news? A 860 OPS is good news?
He had a god-awful swing that had to be corrected. It looks like he's made some critical adjustment and is starting to rake. maybe he still strikes out a lot but it should also be noted that 40% of his hits have been for extras too.
Some guys are always going to strike out a lot; Place as a prospect reminds me a bit of Brandon Wood (not so much stats, but by description) but with better defense at his position. His power was noticeable before he was drafted: a friend of mines son was in the '06 draft with place, so had seen him at some workouts and was amazed that a highschool kid was generating so much power in batting practice (and making some of the college hitters look bad).
Heh. What took you so long?
Wakefield's career splits in that department are pretty normal: .731 bases empty, .763 with runners on, .737 RISP.
He's back in the prospect box.
It's the difference between guys who can get strikeouts when they need them versus guys who put a lot more balls in play.
Lowrie 1-2 with a double and a sac fly.
Carter 1-3 with a 2 run home run.
BTW, there's no excuse for the Asheville Tourists' ballpark, McCormick Field, to still be in use. When you talk about the all-time bad jobs, this is one of them. This wouldn't even pass as a Babe Ruth stadium. I don't care how historic it is, it's a disgrace.
Shame on the city of Asheville, the state of North Carolina, and Minor League Baseball for this abomination.
You ever bee to Asheville, Temple? It's not exactly ground central for sports fan activism.
Now, if you want a gay rights parade going...
373 to CF, 320 to RCF, 297 down the line should be criminal.
Is that not below average? What's average in that league?
Edit: 3 walks tonight, btw.
Again I'll ask, why is he there? Why didn't they put him in Greenville? (Really, I'm asking).
Between 2000-2005, 50 20-year olds collected 200 or more AB's in the Cal league. 12 of those players were able to put an OPS of .850 or over. Of those 12, 11 have played in the majors and the other one, Chris Lubanski, will play in the majors. Of course, this assumes that Place gets to that level by the time the season ends, which isn't far-fetched, but also not guaranteed. Funnily, that .850 mark is a decent cut-off point, because the players on the list below that mark are almost all filler or quadruple-A players.
24.0 21 6 4 0 3 23 1.50
Since this isn't the "Try To Enjoy This" thread... How many players have the latter-day Red Sox had in their system who haven't been able to measure up to what was thought of them when they were drafted? When I read things about Place and a few others, it always seems like the players who struggle manage to find their way to success. I know in Place's case the turnaround is a small sample, but even before this latest anecdote I've been getting the impression that this organization knows how to develop players. Thoughts? Counterexamples?
I'm reaching a little here but they both were considered something of a disappointment.
Still, the Red Sox seem to be pretty good at developing guys. That 2005 draft class looks pretty good right now. I wouldn't mind seeing a little more Jed Lowrie.
In terms of "failures" out of the draft, Jon Egan was a disappointment. There was that $1M late rounder from Georgia that never learned to pitch. Mickey Hall ain't done nothing. Overall, though, the Sox draft record is insanely good, and due for significant regression to the mean - no one's that good. Limiting it to the draft is somewhat misleading, though, becuase the Red Sox have had failure after failure from their international program. Soto and Galvez got significant bonuses and did nothing at all, for instance. Tejeda's had a lost season so far, and really no one since Anibal has lived up to any expectation at all. Don't know what the problem is. But in all likelihood they'll start developing some of their international signings to make up in part for likely slowdown in the drafted talent pipeline.
Well, yes. He was on the DL twice last year, including after his month in Portland. I am willing to cut him some slack because of that, but, yeah, going back down to A ball isn't a good sign.
Overall, though, the Sox draft record is insanely good, and due for significant regression to the mean - no one's that good.
Are you talking about their record of scouting amateur talent (that feeds the draft) or developing the players they've signed? You specifically mentioned the draft (and international signings), but I'm looking more for the latter.
Epstein suggested before the draft that they were confident enough in their development program that they could take more risks in the draft; Keith Law's comments (or at least how I read them) indicate that he thinks they did just that - taking players who will deliver high upside if they develop well. I'm trying to understand how much of their success is from scouting/drafting and how much is from development.
Chiang... ugh. Hasn't met a fastball he didtn' like.
I guess if they ran a Royals-style "teach baseball to athletes" camp, you could guess that they were more skilled in development, but the high-upside talents the Sox have been signing have had perfectly ok baseball skills to begin with, so that doesn't really fit.
EDIT: My comments fit either way, I think. If it's the case that the Red Sox drafts have been perfectly average, but they've just done incredibly well at developing minor leaguers already in the system, I would say that no one's that good at development either.
Yeah. I'm not questioning the veracity of your comment... I'm just looking for opinion on the development system. They've had a lot of guys come out of the minors, but is it only a product of drafting well (i.e development system = not screw up the high talent they drafted), developing well (i.e. development system = improve the success rate for the players they drafted), or both? I think, as you note, that it's hard to handle this analytically; but I'm OK with a reasoned opinion instead of number-crunching.
Jason Place?
And I think I somewhat misleadingly used a bunch of statistical jargon in my post - I think it's going to be almost impossible, absent in-depth ethnographic work, to separate drafting and development for the purposes of a reasoned opinion. As long as all we have are the outcomes of the system, and the barest hints of what actually goes on in the day-to-day of instruction, I don't really know how we're going to make a confident distinction.
I am also, generally, interested to hear more about Navarro from any of the knowledgeable people.
He'll definitely be Top 20 by season's end.
------
Another prospect to watch out for is Jethawks reliever Richie Lentz. Lentz was drafted in the 19th round of the 2006 draft and given a $150,000 bonus to forego eligibility at U-Washington. It was seen as a risk at the time because he had TJ surgery in 2005 and only threw 9 innings in 2006.
Since May 1st, these are his numbers at Lancaster: 26 IP, 17 H, 2.42 ERA, 42/12 K/BB
He's been between 93-99 all year and his changeup has really improved. He'll probably be in the Portland BP by year's end.
NYPL:
Ryan Dent- 1S pick last season. A MIF with speed and a little pop. He's 19, so he's still very young for a league normally populated by college players.
Will Middlebrooks- Received the highest bonus of anybody from last year's Sox draft. Still pretty raw and had trouble adjusting to wood in XST. The early word on him is that he's out of sorts at the plate: taking pitches down the middle and swinging at breaking balls out of the zone. Still, it's only 20 AB's and he's 19 years old.
Brock Huntzinger- The Sox quasi-surprise 3rd round pick last season. He's been decent early on: 10 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 11/1 K/BB. It's a pitcher's league, but that's still impressive for someone in their first year out of high school.
Stolmy Pimentel- The youngest player on the team, 18, Pimentel is a Dominican pitcher who has shown the ability in his young career to strike a lot of people out and get a lot of ground balls. He's only had one start so far, but he's done exactly that: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 6/1 K/BB, 7/1 GO/AO
Michael Lee- Lee is just one of those guys you have a feeling about. He's got a great frame (6'6", 190) and good raw stuff (mid-90's fastball and a developing breaking ball and changeup). He dominated his only appearance so far (6 batters faced, 5 K's) and is someone to keep an eye on.
Some others to watch include Yeiper Castillo (RHP), Luis Sumoza (OF), Kyle Weiland (RHP), and Hunter Strickland (RHP).
GCL:
Michael Almanzar- The Sox big bonus baby magically shrunk two inches over the winter and is now listed at 6'3" and 190 pounds. He's got excellent raw power, but he's been a singles hitter very early on. Only 17, Almanzar is raw in most facets of the game. He's already moved to 3B, though he was drafted as a SS. He's got a strong arm and athleticism, so I would imagine they would leave him there for a while unless he is really horrible. He has had 2 hits in every game the GCL Sox have played so far.
Swen Huijer- Not a prospect in the truest sense, but he's a 6'9", 17-year old pitcher from Haarlem (the Netherlands). You gotta root for someone like that.
Chia-Chu Chen- The Sox smaller Taiwanese splash last year, Chen is a small-framed catcher with good defensive skills.
More prospects should come on to the scene as the Sox actually sign some of their high schoolers from this year's draft.
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