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Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Minor League Thread: Draft Time

The draft is coming up on June 5 and the Red Sox will likely draft a whole bunch of players who either go on to the Majors or don’t. They will be picking 30th in each round, with bonus picks at 45th (as compensation for “losing” Eric Gagne), and at 85th (for failing to sign 2nd rounder Hunter Morris last year).

That’s about the extent of the analysis that I can offer on this subject. Let’s hope that Philly and Temple stop by soon and give us their takes. 

Darren Posted: June 03, 2008 at 06:51 PM | 58 comment(s)
  Related News: Boston

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   1. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:16 PM (#2804627)
Here are Baseball America's 25-35 draft prospects: (Stats in link)

HITTERS
27 Jemile Weeks 2B Miami
29 Reese Havens SS South Carolina
30 Ike Davis 1B Arizona State
31 David Cooper 1B California
34 Dennis Raben OF Miami

PITCHERS:
25 Alex Meyer RHP Greensburg
26 Ryan Perry RHP Arizona
28 Ross Seaton RHP Second Baptist HS, Houston
32 Jake Odorizzi RHP Highland (Ill.) HS
33 Brett Devall LHP Niceville (Fla.) HS
35 Tyson Ross RHP California

EDIT: Ryan Perry started in 6 of 22 games but was not the closer and Tyson Ross started all 12 of his games.
   2. Nate Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:22 PM (#2804638)
The Sox are known to like Reese Havens a bunch, who they drafted out of HS, and everyone seems to think they'll pop him at 30 if he's there. A SS now, he's going to end up at third base, with a shot at maybe second base and a long shot at catcher (there are rumors they'd convert him). His bat should play at any of those positions.

Allan Dykstra, also drafted by the Sox out of HS, I'm sure they'd love to get at 45, but he probably won't be there and I don't see them taking him at 30 (though I'd like it).

For some reason I think the Sox hope Ryan Perry falls, and they move him back to the rotation. Pure speculation.

Ryan Westmoreland, from an RI HS, is someone they've also been rumored with, and someone they could take in rounds 3-4. The scout I've talked to says he reminds him of Darin Erstad (athletic, good eye/bat control, maybe avg power). Another local product, Jason Esposito of Amity CT, is a third basemen slated for Vanderbilt who will take 3rd round or better money to sign, and I could see the Sox nabbing him late and trying to ink him.

I'd like the team to look at some of the college relievers for rounds 3-4 as well, since there's a bunch of good ones and they'll be a better value than normal. Scott Bittle or, preferably, Aaron Weatherford, who has a nasty splitter and mid-90s heat.
   3. battlekow Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:27 PM (#2804653)
From the Brewers thread:
13. TempleUSox is in the Best Shape of His Life Posted: June 01, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2802027)

If you pass on Reese Havens, you're passing on greatness. Keep that in mind.
   4. John DiFool2 Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:30 PM (#2804663)
Is that Dykstra kid related to Lenny? Heh that's all we need is another hustling kid with dirt all over his uniform each night... (yes it would be a good thing)
   5. Nate Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:32 PM (#2804668)
No, but oddly enough, Lenny's kid (his name is Cutter....really) is in the draft out of HS and will probably be a 3-5th rounder.
   6. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:38 PM (#2804677)
Yea, it's basically all about Havens at this point. He'll make or break the draft since he's a future superstar.

I love Bittle too, but for some reason I don't think he's going to be the sleeper he would be 5-10 years ago. He's got a nasty cutter though, which I love.

Zach Putnam is someone the Sox seem to like too. He's an athletic RHP out of The U (of Michigan). He just seems like the type of player the Sox love to pop from the supp to the 2nd round.

From the high school side, Nate mentioned Westmoreland which is a good call. The Sox are hot and heavy after him, but so are some other teams.

Some others to look for are Typer Sample, a tall RHP out of Colorado. One of the Sox roving pitching scouts, Daryl Milne, really helped him develop his game this year.

Matt Marquis, a corner outfielder of the New Jeruse is someone they like too. Theo attended one of his games when he hit a 450-foot HR. There might be some other clubs after him too, however, because apparently he outclassed the field at the Cardinals workout the other day.

Ricky Oropesa is a high-school 3B from California with plus-plus raw power.

In general, I'm not big on these high schoolers, but whatever.
   7. Nate Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:43 PM (#2804689)
Temple,

Assuming Havens is gone, who are you hoping for at 30/45?
   8. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 03, 2008 at 08:54 PM (#2804716)
Tim Beckham at 35 and Pedro Alvarez at 45. Or do I have to assume they are gone too? Because then it gets pretty rough.

If so, then David Cooper at 30 and Putnam at 45.
   9. battlekow Posted: June 03, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#2804787)
That's funny, because I suggested John Sickels draft David Cooper for his "phantom Twins" draft with pick #31, and he said, yeah, Cooper is good, but I already have Lars Anderson in my fake organization.
   10. Darren Posted: June 03, 2008 at 10:16 PM (#2804910)
What happened to Alvarez? I thought that after he went to college people were talking about him as one of the top couple college players.
   11. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: June 03, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#2804931)
What happened to Alvarez? I thought that after he went to college people were talking about him as one of the top couple college players.


He is and there's a good chance he'll go either first or second.
   12. Darren Posted: June 03, 2008 at 10:34 PM (#2804955)
Oh, that was one of those dry jokes by that clever fellow Temple. I'm a bit dense, apparently.

Hey, this being the mL thread and all: Bowden had a perfecto through 6 tonight. Finished with 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 6 K. His ERA is down to 2.12. 68 IP, 42 H, 16 BB, 64 K, 2 HR (!).

Bubba Bell is still raking and Aaron Bates is hitting reasonably well too.
   13. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 03, 2008 at 10:44 PM (#2804973)
All those Lancaster guys are turning it on at once.
   14. OCD SS Posted: June 04, 2008 at 10:02 AM (#2805500)
Do I have any rational basis for really liking Havens and not liking J Weeks at all? From his (Weeks') scouting reports I don't see why he's been consistently rated so highly compared to some of the drafts other middle infielders.
   15. steagles Posted: June 04, 2008 at 03:01 PM (#2805790)
putnam, sample, and ross are the three names to keep an eye on in this draft. i have a great feeling about all 3, and it will be interesting to see where each gets plucked.
   16. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 04, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2806013)
Buchholz wasn't sharp at all in his rehab start the other night in Durham. Fernando Perez took him to the warning track on his second pitch of the game, and while he recovered well enough from that to fan the next two hitters, he had trouble hitting spots from the second inning on. I'm sure that's part of the reason why he was optioned back to Pawtucket; give him a few more starts to get his control back.

Jonathan Mayo is projecting Lance Lynn at #30. I think that would be an overdraft; he's a good bet to be around at #45 if Boston passes at #30. BA has him all the way down at #83, FWIW. I can't see Boston going for any of the college pitching that's likely to be around at #30; the quality really drops off after the first couple, and there are going to be a lot of similar pitchers still available at #45.

-- MWE
   17. Porpoise Delectable Posted: June 04, 2008 at 05:39 PM (#2806016)
Jason Esposito of Amity CT, is a third basemen slated for Vanderbilt who will take 3rd round or better money to sign, and I could see the Sox nabbing him late and trying to ink him.


They haven't had much luck with 3B from NE states who're already committed to Vandy.

GW
   18. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:50 AM (#2806647)
They haven't had much luck with 3B from NE states who're already committed to Vandy.

Who is that?
   19. Nate Posted: June 05, 2008 at 10:33 AM (#2806691)
They haven't had much luck with 3B from NE states who're already committed to Vandy.

Who is that?


Pedro Alvarez is from NY and the Sox drafted him out of HS.

BA is saying that the Sox will pass on Reese Havens. He makes it seem like he's not being considered, and points to David Cooper (his projection), Jason Castro, Shooter Hunt, and Bryan Price. I'd be happy with Cooper, and I'll trust the Sox if they want to take Hunt and think they can improve the command. Don't want any part of Castro (whos probably gone anyway) or Price.
   20. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:20 PM (#2806860)
Pedro Alvarez is from NY and the Sox drafted him out of HS.

NYC isn't in NE, though.
   21. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:21 PM (#2806863)
But it is in the Northeast.
   22. Joe C isn't Posted: June 05, 2008 at 05:08 PM (#2807996)
Soooo....Casey Kelly - Mike Emeigh likes it. Anyone else?
   23. Mattbert Posted: June 05, 2008 at 05:53 PM (#2808135)
The Sox allegedly like Kelly as a pitcher, but he wants to play SS. I don't think he's quick enough to stick at SS; looks more like an outfielder to me. This strikes me as a pick in the Jason Place sort of mold, another development project. And that's assuming they can sign him.
   24. Nate Posted: June 05, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2808141)
Kelly is a better bet than Place, but is still fairly risky. They can take the chance.

Don't like Bryan Price in round two. I like both Scott Bittle and Aaron Weatherford more, and if they really wanted Price he may have been there in round three. Hopefully they go after some signability guys in rounds 4+.
   25. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:32 PM (#2808570)
Round 1 (30) - Casey Kelly (PG #17, BA #19)
Kelly has been one of the hottest prospects in the country this spring and is being talked about as a first-round pick by many teams. The Cincinnati Reds, for whom Kelly's father Pat works for as a scout, could be one of those teams. The Reds have the seventh pick in the first round. Kelly has been very up-front with teams that he is very interested in playing baseball immediately and forgoing his football plans-if he's selected as a shortstop. But he's made it clear that sentiment would not be the case if a team was to draft him with the intention of making him a pitcher. In such case, Kelly has indicated he would fulfill his football commitment to Tennessee. Most teams have Kelly evaluated higher in the infield, but some do still like him better on the mound. Kelly's Sarasota High team failed to defend its 2007 state 6-A title as it bowed out in the second.


Round 1s (45) - Bryan Price (PG #28, BA #47)
Price has started to fulfill the promise that his raw stuff hinted at in the past. Used in a long relief role at Rice this spring, Price consistently touched 94-95 mph and his mid-80s slider was a strikeout pitch. Many scouts profile Price as a starting pitcher as he has three quality pitches, a growing command of the strike zone and a lean and projectable frame. He was strong late in the season in front of growing crowds of scouting directors and could be picked by the bottom part of the first round. Price was 3-4, 3.38 with two saves and 48 K's in 42 innings as Rice entered Conference USA play.


Round 2 (77) - Derrick Gibson (PG N/A, BA #199)
All the gains that Gibson appeared to make towards becoming an elite prospect last summer and fall may have been squandered this spring as he did not perform to the level scouts expected-or even close. He had positioned himself as a possible second-rounder but only his speed, always his best tool, played to an acceptable level this spring. His bat was light as he did not drive balls consistently to the gaps, like he specialized in doing a year ago. He often got tied up by high-velocity fastballs and adopted more of a passive inside-out approach to hitting. His actions in the field were rough and inconstant, and his arm showed little life and below-average velocity. More than anything, he did not play the game with a bounce in his step. But his athleticism, raw tools and excellent speed all hold too much promise for scouts to walk away from.


Round 3 (85) - Stephen Fife (PG #91, BA #57)
Led by San Diego State sophomore righthander Stephen Strasburg, the early favorite to be the No. 1 selection in the 2009 draft, and Texas Christian righthander Andrew Cashner, who bolted from deep in the pack to become a probable first-rounder this year, the Mountain West Conference was blessed with some of the nation's premier power arms this year. Fife's rise to legitimate prospect status was nearly as meteoric as Cashner's, but he was almost lost in the shadows of two pitchers pumping high-90s heat. Ironically, it was Strasburg's dominant 1-0, 23-strikeout win over Utah on April 11 that helped to significantly raise Fife's profile. Not only did he pitch effectively in his head-to-head shootout with Strasburg with a number of scouts on hand, but he continued to get better and better as the spring wore on, and he finished the year with a 7-5, 3.72 record, with 29 walks and 78 strikeouts in 92 innings. While his fastball was mainly in the 88-92 mph range, it frequently jumped up to 94, and even 95. It also produced consistent sink and run, generating a lot of ground-ball outs. His 82-84 mph slider and 76-78 mph curve also showed flashes of being above-average pitches. Moreover, his stuff was consistently around the plate, a by-product of his tall, balanced delivery and easy arm action. Fife has gotten much stronger and matured as a pitcher since he was a physically undeveloped Idaho high school product who attended Everett (Wash.) JC for a year before transferring to Utah, where he went 6-2, 4.43 with 53 strikeouts in 63 innings as a sophomore. He had a solid 2007 summer season in the West Coast Collegiate League, going 3-0, 1.59 with 30 strikeouts in 34 innings, and significantly built off that performance this season. Fife's fastball was a consistent 89-90 mph last summer, peaking at 91. He tended to overstride a little when delivering it, but even then he showed enough promise that Northwest area scouts thought he might reach 94-95 mph one day if he could just tighten up his delivery. Few thought he would so do, though, in the course of less than a year


Round 3 (108) - Kyle Weiland (PG #49, BA #88)
Weiland had an up-and-down spring for Notre Dame, throwing very well in spurts but also getting hit occasionally, especially late in the year. He went 2-2, 5.04 with seven saves while allowing 33 hits in 30 innings. With his stuff, there isn't really much excuse for Weiland being hittable, which confuses scouts. He'll show three plus pitches in any given game, with a fastball that touches 95 mph, a hard-breaking slider and a nice changeup. That three-pitch mix has led to much talk about making Weiland a starter in professional ball, a role he hasn't filled since he was in high school in New Mexico. Some scouts question Weiland's ability to make that kind of an adjustment, citing his complicated Kevin Appier-type delivery that will need to be seriously toned down before he's asked to repeat his delivery for 100-plus pitches per game.


Round 4 (142) - Pete Hissey (PG #150, BA #136)
Virginia signed Hissey in the NCAA early-signing period last fall, content that a player with a 4.0 GPA and solid but unspectacular tools on the baseball field would safely move on to school next fall. But Hissey surged out of the blocks this spring and quickly became the best high school prospect in Pennsylvania. With the exception of raw power, he showed scouts solid to plus tools across the board. A lefthanded hitter, he mainly sprays balls now but has an aggressive approach at the plate with sound hitting instincts and strike-zone discipline. With 6.50-second speed in the 60, he has a speed-oriented approach to the remainder of his game, and his center-field and base-running skills are at an advanced stage. His arm is considered just average. Hissey batted .509 this season, with a .672 on-base average and 26 stolen bases. Though he has little present power, he projects to get bigger and stronger, and he could be a legitimate five-tool player once he adds a power component to his game. His current profile reminds scouts of New York Yankees outfielder Johnny Damon. Hissey's signability could be a significant matter, even with his new-found prospect status. He has remained firm in his desire to attend school at Virginia. If teams are unable to get a strong indication that he is at least contemplating signing, he could slide to at least the middle rounds, with a chance that a club will take a spited run at him at the Aug. 16 signing deadline.


Round 5 (172) - Ryan Westmoreland (PG #110, BA #113)
Westmoreland solidified his status as one of the nation's elite high school players, and possibly one of the best 100 prospects overall for this year's draft, with another strong season-both on the mound and as a position player. He became Rhode Island's first two-time Gatorade player of the year by hitting .486-4-31 with 17 stolen bases, while going 6-0, 0.35 with only nine walks and 89 strikeouts in 40 innings. Included in his pitching accomplishments were a 19-strikeout perfect game, and a 20-strikeout one-hitter. Even though he was more dominant on the mound this spring, Westmoreland was scouted only as a center fielder. He got extremely high grades for his speed, defense and arm strength, and his athletic ability generally. Bigger and stronger this year, he drove the ball better than he did in the past, but his bat is the one tool that scouts aren't totally sold on. He needs a lot of repetitions and at-bats, whether in pro ball or at Vanderbilt. He has already been penciled in as the starting center fielder at Vanderbilt a year from now, and could end up in school if teams are not prepared to meet his high price tag. As with any high-profile New England prospect, the Boston Red Sox have a keen interest and could overdraft Westmoreland as early as the sandwich or second round-to both secure his rights and justify the bonus it will take to sign him away from Vanderbilt. Westmoreland has appropriately been described as a cross between Jacoby Ellsbury and David Murphy, outfielders the Red Sox drafted with first-round picks in 2005 and 2003.


Round 6 (202) - Ryan Lavarnway (PG N/A, BA #186)
Lavarnway hit 13 home runs this spring to lead Ivy League hitters and caught on an everyday basis before breaking his wrist with two weeks remaining in the season. Though he did much of what he set out to do this season, he may not have done enough for scouts to elevate himself into elite draft status. Lavarnway may even have regressed slightly as a prospect overall. He didn't catch as well as expected, struggling to block balls while showing a slow release. His hitting instincts and actions at the plate were also not as fluid as what they had been in the past, even though he batted a team-high .398 and had an impressive 29-19 walk-to-strikeout ratio. With his injury, which should keep him sidelined for a couple of weeks beyond the draft, his need to smooth out his rough edges, and his junior class standing at an Ivy League school all contributing factors, Lavarnway may well be drafted much lower than he anticipated and be tracked this summer in the Cape Cod League.



All scouting reports were taken from the brilliant PG Crosschecker website.
   26. Mike Webber Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:58 PM (#2808631)
what is PG? Is it free?
   27. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 05, 2008 at 10:02 PM (#2808639)
Perfect Game Crosschecker is the web's premier site for the MLB Amateur Draft. Hands down, it provides the most detailed, in-depth reports on over 1,000 players across the country.

For a price, of course.
   28. Darren Posted: June 05, 2008 at 10:35 PM (#2808729)
Not sure how kosher it is to post these here if PG is a pay site.
   29. Mike Webber Posted: June 05, 2008 at 10:53 PM (#2808766)
Temple, has any Rice pitcher every pitched in the big leagues without a serious arm injury?

It seems like they have had tons of guys get drafted then their arm goes "BOOM" about the 2nd month of minor league play.
   30. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 05, 2008 at 10:56 PM (#2808771)
Aardsma, but he didn't spent his entire collegiate career at Rice. I'm sure there are others.
   31. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: June 05, 2008 at 11:15 PM (#2808830)
Darren, Darren, Darren. Free exchange of ideas is the only way to advance any academic field; we don't need people naively sticking up for the spread of profit-mongering. Mind you, there's nothing wrong with publishing information for a price (well, there's a little bit wrong with it, but I understand that sometimes, as in this case, the information simply wouldn't be compiled otherwise), but there's also nothing wrong--and everything right--with excerpting it for scholarly use. That is a time-honored tradition that we must NEVER, EVER let die.

And you're some sort of academic, are you not?
   32. JB H Posted: June 06, 2008 at 02:34 AM (#2809355)
I don't know anything about these guys but I'm having trouble getting excited.

I don't get Bryan Price at all. He's not good enough to pitch his first two years, and his third year he has a 2-1 K/BB ratio as a reliever and he's a sandwich pick?
   33. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:08 AM (#2809447)
I disagree with the idea that the text has been excerpted. The entire text of each piece is reprinted here, and every piece that would be of interest to a Red Sox fan is included.

Free exchange of ideas is the only way to advance any academic field; we don't need people naively sticking up for the spread of profit-mongering.


Call me naive if you must, but I don't have a problem with someone profiting from their own work.
   34. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:11 AM (#2809453)
Darren, though it's a pay-site, they are putting up all the scouting reports for the first day for free here. So stop being such a prude.
   35. villageidiom Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:12 AM (#2809455)
Kelly has been very up-front with teams that he is very interested in playing baseball immediately and forgoing his football plans-if he's selected as a shortstop. But he's made it clear that sentiment would not be the case if a team was to draft him with the intention of making him a pitcher. In such case, Kelly has indicated he would fulfill his football commitment to Tennessee.
Simple. Draft him as a shortstop, then see how he does. If his progress is quick, great, you've got a SS prospect. If he is slow in progress, he might choose a different path.

If he's given the choice now, he'll choose college football. If given the choice in 2-3 years, he's probably more likely to choose a switch to pitching than to go to college. And by then his pitching arm will have less mileage on it.
   36. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:26 AM (#2809465)
You didn't really make that clear before, Temple. You'll note my initial objection was pretty tame, too.

Idiom,

I was thinking the same thing. I think the Sox concern is that he might turn out to be a decent SS but they'd be missing out on a great P.
   37. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:31 AM (#2809468)
I'm not sure why I was obligated to make it clear.
   38. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:34 AM (#2809472)
You are if you're going to call me a prude! Me? A prude? I mean, that's crazy talk!
   39. kevin Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:45 AM (#2809481)
Yeah, a prude is someone who has opportunity for sex but declines out of a misguided sense of propriety.

Darren, he never gets the chance to decline.
   40. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 06, 2008 at 09:58 AM (#2809500)
Kelly is exactly the kind of high-upside talent that good teams "should" be taking in the latter stages of the first round. Yes, there are questions (will he hit enough? will his power develop? should he play the field or pitch?) but as vi points out in #35, the Sox can give him a couple of years to find out some of those answers.

When looking at first-round candidates, I ask one question: What is the likelihood that he can develop into an MVP candidate? I want my first-rounder to be one of the best players in baseball. Kelly has a chance to develop that way, more than any other player who was available at that point in the draft. That's why I like the pick.

-- MWE
   41. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 11:09 AM (#2809594)
I understand the thinking Mike but I think that it tends to get oversimplified. Just to pull some numbers out of thin air, what if you have a choice between a guy who has a 50% chance of being an average MLer (Jacque Jones?) or a guy who has a 10% chance of being an excellent player (Paul O'Neil?). Afer 4 years, option one will have put 2 average MLers in your organization. Option 2 will have resulted in .4 great players. With option 1, you can plug in the average cheap player and spend your big payroll to get the stars. Option 2, you have a cheap star and overspend on the average guys. Six of one, etc. Of course, there's always option j.
   42. villageidiom Posted: June 06, 2008 at 11:46 AM (#2809645)
I think the Sox concern is that he might turn out to be a decent SS but they'd be missing out on a great P.

On the flip side, Kelly would be passing on a career of "great P" money in favor of "decent SS" money. If that's the way it plays out the Red Sox might be able to convince him to switch to pitching.

Maybe Kelly's edict (draft me as P and I'll be a QB) was based on the rationale that many teams' minor-league systems might not be conducive to development of young pitching prospects, while SS would be a more healthy path. If that's the case, Boston might also be able to convince him that they're ahead of the pack in developing young pitching talent.

All that is massive speculation, of course; I'm what-iffing rationales and arguments all over the place. My point is that it's better to get him into the system now and address these things later than it is to get them straightened out now.

Of course, there's always option j.

Top that, NFL draft!
   43. OCD SS Posted: June 06, 2008 at 01:17 PM (#2809743)
I like the Kelly pick; on top of everything else they will be able to spread his bonus money around since he is a 2 sport athlete.
   44. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#2809814)
Red Sox just took Alex Meyer, a 6'7 high school pitcher in the 20th round. BA had him as #25 in the draft. Boras client, projectability guy.
   45. villageidiom Posted: June 06, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2809826)
So he's, what, somewhere south of the 600th player taken? And a reputable organization had him 25th? If he's still alive, what's not to like?
   46. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 02:30 PM (#2809843)
Goldstein says he's late 1st round talent and wants 3-4 times that.
   47. villageidiom Posted: June 06, 2008 at 02:48 PM (#2809881)
Well, we all want things.

From Boston's perspective, what are the odds they could've landed MLB talent in the 25th round without the signability issues? Every now and then you might find a useful player, but it's pretty unlikely. In my mind it's not like they had a better use for the pick. If he doesn't sign, they get nothing; had they drafted someone else, they'd effectively get nothing.

To me, this is an excellent use of the pick.
   48. Darren Posted: June 06, 2008 at 03:00 PM (#2809901)
Agreed. I actually typed #46 before I saw #45. Didn't mean it as a response.
   49. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 08, 2008 at 10:34 AM (#2811635)
Keith Law loved our draft! ESPN (free) article
2. Boston Red Sox

Boston bet it all on red, taking one high-ceiling player after another. Apparently, they're willing to worry about the signability of these players later on. Casey Kelly is a first-rounder as a pitcher or position player, but his bonus demands and commitment to play quarterback at Tennessee scared off potential suitors. Ryan Westmoreland's bonus demands ($1.6 to $2.1 million) and commitment to Vanderbilt had him viewed as completely unsignable all spring, even though he was a top-40 talent and had performed well over the summer with a wood bat. Bryan Price was totally misused at Rice, and was one of the best reliever-to-starter conversion opportunities in the draft. Derrik Gibson and Pete Hissey are both athletic, projectable tools players with the chance to play in the middle of the field (Gibson as a shortstop/second baseman, Hissey as a center fielder); both also have commitments to strong college programs (North Carolina and Virginia, respectively). Even if the Red Sox don't sign all four of those high school talents, signing Kelly and one of the others would be an impressive haul of talent -- and we know the Sox have the resources to sign more than just two.
No one's mentioning Meyer - most people think that the Sox decided that a 3% chance of Meyer dropping his crazy demands was more valuable than organizational filler in the 25th round. But the other mid-round signability guys look like a great haul.

Price appears to be the rare Rice pitcher without massive wear on his arm, and the Red Sox continue their strategy of never acquiring college starters with their top picks.
   50. MM1f Posted: June 08, 2008 at 10:53 AM (#2811644)
Jim Callis is making Meyer seem even more unsignable that the typical "unsignable" kid, for what it is worth. Callis' description of what it would take to sign him was "a blank check".

It doesn't seem like losing his future college coach has changed his mind at all
   51. MM1f Posted: June 08, 2008 at 11:03 AM (#2811649)
SoCal IF Ricky Oropesa (UCLA commit), NJ P/OF Matt Marquis (UNC) and Tennessee RHP Navery Moore (Vandy) are three more high-profile signability picks for the BoSox. I've heard some buzz about Kansas RHP Jordan Cooper (Wichita State) as well. The BoSox also picked a guy who was once the top 13 or 14 year old in the country in Pittsburg area RHP Zak Sinclair, an NC St commit.

One sleeper to watch that I have heard good things about is 13th rounder P Tyler Wilson, a Georgia HSer going to Kennesaw St.
   52. OCD SS Posted: June 08, 2008 at 11:17 AM (#2811652)
One draft guru (I forget which, they're already starting to run together in my mind after all I've read on it) has already said that Meyer could be looking at being one of the top picks in 2011. While there's plenty of risk, I think the Sox have seen way to many of their HS drafts come back in that scenario. It seems like the only way to get elite talent at the college level where they normally have been drafting is to draft them out of HS.

If the trend of guys not dropping because of signability continues, it makes sense to anticipate the trend and sign these guys now. As a comparison, how much more or less is Inoa looking for as compared to Myers?
   53. philly Posted: June 08, 2008 at 11:24 AM (#2811654)
Price appears to be the rare Rice pitcher without massive wear on his arm, and the Red Sox continue their strategy of never acquiring college starters with their top picks.


2006 draft was pretty heavy on C starters:

#28 Dan Bard
#42 Kris Johnson
#71 Justin Masterson

Although Bard and Masterson may have always profiled better as pro releivers, they were C starters heading into the draft.

Also saw someplace - Goldstein chat? - that Rice pitcher workloads have been much less abusive the last few years. Seems to be a case of the rep persisting beyond the actual problem at this point, but I'm sure it won't go away until a couple hig profile Rice pitchers are successful.
   54. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: June 08, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#2811666)
The Sox also used a 20th-round pick on Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-7-inch high school pitcher from Greenville, Ind., who was ranked No. 25 overall by Baseball America on its top prospects list. Meyer slid because he is committed to Kentucky and is being advised by Scott Boras.

"Purely a good gamble for us that deep in the draft," McLeod said. "We will continue to scout him and there's really nothing to lose for either side here. Both come out winners if we can work something out later in the summer."
Globe
   55. OCD SS Posted: June 08, 2008 at 03:41 PM (#2811945)
Also saw someplace - Goldstein chat? - that Rice pitcher workloads have been much less abusive the last few years. Seems to be a case of the rep persisting beyond the actual problem at this point, but I'm sure it won't go away until a couple hig profile Rice pitchers are successful.


It was the BP/Goldstein draft day mega-chat. After the Sox pick and the comment, someone who was on the Rice Bench wrote in with the defense. Mostly I like the Sox draft, but I'm a little disappointed that they didn't get either Melville or Neito based on where they fell. OTOH given where teams did pop them I think is indicative of teams not letting guys fall too far is their aren't major concerns.
   56. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: July 15, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#2857371)
Here's a little window into what the Sox call the Fenway Summer Classic:

Cervenka was one of 18 unsigned draft picks the Red Sox flew to Boston earlier this month to spend a day visiting with and performing in front of the team brass.

No. 1 draft pick Casey Kelly, a high school shortstop from Florida, was there with him as well as No. 2 pick Derrik Gibson and No. 4 pick Peter Hissey, among others.

Most of those invited were pitchers, the position Boston drafted Cervenka to play.

Accompanied to Boston by his dad, Kyle, the team put Cervenka up in a downtown hotel, then took him to breakfast at the Red Sox executive offices at historic Fenway, home of the defending World Series champs.

Theo Epstein, the team’s general manager, spoke to the players as did scouting director Jason McLeod. After watching a video for rookies titled “The Road to Fenway,” the players were given a tour of the stadium that included the Red Sox clubhouse.

“The coolest part was the clubhouse,” Kyle Cervenka said.

“It’s ridiculous how much stuff they have in there,” Hunter said. “Manny (Ramirez) has got like four lockers.”

The tour ended in the visiting clubhouse, where the players ate lunch, then donned Red Sox jerseys with their names stitched on the back and suited up to take the field.

Although they drafted him as a pitcher, the Sox let Cervenka take batting practice at the urging of scouts who had seen him sock five homers in seven games of a recent select-ball tournament in Nebraska.

He was limited to pitching in the prospect game the Sox called the first “Fenway Park Summer Classic.” A public address announcer introduced the players and the scoreboard was run through its paces despite the fact the game was witnessed only by Sox executives and scouts.

On a strict 40-pitch limit, Cervenka showed off the fastball that has been clocked as fast as 94 miles per hour and his assortment of breaking pitches. He didn’t allow a hit or a run in 2-plus innings of work.

Then, after dinner with his hosts, the former Ranger standout was off for an overnight flight to Georgia, for another select ball tournament.

But not before a recruiting pitch from the Sox.

“They indicated their intention was to try to sign 10 of the 18 players they brought in,” Kyle Cervenka said. “I have to assume he was one of them, because we’ve had several conversations with them after that game.

Link
   57. Darren Posted: July 15, 2008 at 07:59 PM (#2857625)
The Red Sox have done the most important thing that they could do in the 2008 draft--sign their 14th round pick. Failure to do so usually proves disastrous for them.
   58. OCD SS Posted: July 18, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2864152)
So we sign our 1st round pick for $3m over 5 years, and no one says anything?
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