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Saturday, May 10, 2008
Minor League Thread: Josh Reddick vs. Lars Anderson
There seems to be a pretty wide consensus that Lars Anderson is a better prospect than Josh Reddick, but I wonder if it’s time for that to change. Prior to the season, Sickels had Lars as #4 in the Sox system, with a B+, and Reddick as #10, with a B-. BA had them slotted the same. Sox Prospects also had Lars #4, and only recently moved Reddick up to #7.
But let’s take a look at what each of these guys has done. Last year, both played most of the year in Greenville. Here’s how they hit:
Lars in A: .288 .385 .443, 71 BB, 112 K in 458 ABs.
Lars in A+ : .343 .489 .486, 11 BB, 9 K in 35 ABs.
Reddick in A: .306 .352 .531, 26 BB, 51 K in 369 ABs.
Now Reddick’s baseball age is 1 year above Lars’s, but he’s actually only 7 months older. Consider also that Lars is a firstbasemen (considered a good one), but that Reddick is an outfielder with reportedly good range who had 19 (!) assists in 94 games last year. There was a good argument to be made that Reddick was already surpassing Lars after 07.
And here’s what they’ve done so far this year:
Lars in A+: .264 .371 .465; 21 BB, 30 K in 129 ABs
Reddick in A: .340 .397 .491, 5 BB, 8 K in 53 ABs.
Reddick in A+ .333 .354 .533, 3 BB, 10 K in 60 ABs.
Lars’s K rate is still somewhat alarming, considering the hitters’ paradise that he plays in. And Reddick just keeps chugging along, hitting for good power and average while keeping an impressively low K rate.
I’m sure there’s scouting reasons that favor Lars, but I think performance-wise, there’s a good case that Reddick has squeeked ahead of him. And that’s not saying anything bad about Lars, who’s a great prospect. It’s saying that Reddick has become a very exciting young player.
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Dan Bard with another 2 IP, 5 K performance. He's at 26 IP, 42 K, 0.69 ERA in A ball right now. When do they move him up and where does he go? Straight to Portland, so that he can avoid the goofy game in Lancaster?
If you don't have the balls to pitch in Lancaster, you can't pitch anywhere.
Actually I would disagree with this. Even putting the hyperbole aside - ie Lars has always been more "good" than "great" - isn't the driving force between this comparison more that Lars is having a poor, developmentally stagnant year than that Reddick has come on strong and passed him?
In a vaccuum, is Reddick's sup-900 OPS in Lancaster all that impressive?
And Bard should be in Portland and it has nothing to do with Lancaster. It seems half the people want Bard to go back to Lancaster to "man up" and prove he can beat whatever demons he had last year and half just want him to skip it because they hate Lancaster for pitchers in general and Bard in particular. But I'm not sure you really have to bring Lancaster into the discussion at all. You have a 23 yr old with major college experience dominating lo-A. The next step for players like that is just about always to get them up to AA and more age appropriate competition to see what you really have. Regardless of your opinion about Lancaster and Bard, I don't see why that has to change.
This kind of ignores what they're supposed to be working on in Lancaster, though. In 2007 Lars had a BB/K ratio of .678 (in both Lancaster and Greenville) to Reddick's .510 (Greenville only). In 2008 those numbers are .7 for Lars (Lancaster) and .444 for Reddick (in both Lancaster and Greenvile).
Lars already has very impressive plate discipline, but the Sox want him to be more aggressive so that he can get used to pulling the ball and hopefully start to generate more pull power. (I can't remember off the top of my head, but doesn't the wind in Lancaster blow out to a particular field? I can't remember if Lars is working against or with this direction...) The book on Reddick is that despite his good contact and K rates, he's not patient enough, and his BB/K ratio bears this out.
Which is not to say that I'm not happy to have Reddick (and Kalish, and Place, and Lin). I think one of the keys to the long term health of the Red Sox is finding someone who can hold down RF at Fenway. That's no small feat since you need the proverbial 5 tool player to cover what is really a small CF, make the throws, and hit like a corner OFer. The Drew contract shows what that will cost on the open market, and with attrition being what it is in prospects, growing your own is not exactly easy. Hopefully one of these guys will stick...
Comparing the stat lines of Reddick and Anderson is kind of silly at this point. They don't have enough ABs for us to really know anything besides that neither is Ken Griffey Jr and they'll both make it to AAA
How is it silly? The stats are a big part of the picture of what type of prospects they are.
Just because over their first 120 games Reddick was worth 6 more runs or whaever doesn't mean that Reddick was a better player over those 120 games (in the true talent sense) or that Reddick projects to be better when they're in the their mid 20's
I wouldn't compare these two based only on their runs-created lines though. I'd consider their age (which is very close) and their defense. And Reddick is player a tougher position very well while putting up a better batting line.
I think you're right about the hyperbole--great is way too strong of word. But I don't know if I'd say he's stagnated and been poor. Holding your own in A+ at age 20 is pretty decent. Perhaps it's a mild disappointment.
edit for clarity
IP BB K ERA Level Year57 19 59 1.42 A 2002
175 78 112 3.81 A-AA 2003
107 81 53 5.80 A-AA 2004
116 61 75 5.37 AA-AAA 2005
116 65 65 3.88 AA-AAA 2006
140 71 78 4.63 AA-AAA 2007
49 15 32 2.77 AAA 2008
It's early, obviously, and Zink has had flashes of hope before, but I like this one.
There's an interesting article in ProJo after Zink's second-most recent start, discussing how Zink has made a transition from throwing only knucklers to throwing mostly knucklers, while working in a variety of other pitches:
He'll make a full recovery thank the F!@3ing gods.
Still hope to see both in Portland before the end of the year. It might be rushing them, but I don't believe playing in Lancaster is good for any prospect.
Actually, Lars' numbers are now a heck of a lot better than this: .311, .406, .494; 42 BB, 54 K in 267 AB.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Lars Anderson&pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502249
And now that I recall, Daeges is a bit old at 24 as well and has a very impressive 42/36 BB/K ratio, but has shown very little power. If he could play 3B, he'd be a lot more interesting.
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