I'm not worried about Drew or Lugo as much as Matsuzaka, and I'm not all that worried about him either. As for closer, it's slim pickings. I do wonder why the Sox weren't in on Scott Strickland or Russ Springer, both cheap, decent options. I'd suspect it's because they have another move planned, though I can't imagine what it is.

My fantasy is that we trade Lowell + a good prospect for Ensberg (was he tendered?) + Lidge. Please?

They don't have to go after a closer. They can go intot he season with what they have and see what plays out. Their system is deep enough they can fix the bullpen on the fly, either with someone emerging or by trade. I could imagine someone like Bryce Cox kicking ass in ST and taking the job.

I'm perfectly fine with this team as is. There's both quantity and quality.

You guys need to watch that Daisuke Matsuzaka Video I posted in the Thread I started.

SOOOOO GOOD

I'm not sure about Brad Lidge. I used to heart him, but I think he's mentally gone a la our Korean friend.

I say we trade for Ensberg (for whatever screwed up reasons that Houston wants to be rid of), and use Lowell/Hinske to find pitching options.

Would Houston want Hinske?

I like the idea of going into the season with some room left in the budget. Once teams drop out you can pick up players while giving up virtually no talent in return. I think they can survive a few months with the pitchers they have, and use the opportunity to sort everyone out. Of course that's tougher to do in Boston with the attention, but ideally I think it's a good strategy.

I'm definitely psyched about next year.

Now......we take a week off without anything happening please?

"I like the idea of going into the season with some room left in the budget."

According to philly's payroll thread on SoSH, the Sox are already 7m over the tax threshold. I don't know if that's right or not, or what kind of limit Henry has set, but it seems possible there isn't any room left in the budget.

Trading Lowell would obviously help there, but I, too, would be happy to see the Sox go into camp as is. The bullpen's a huge question mark, but I don't see that changing, and there's at least some potential with what they have.

Well... don't mind the team as is. For me it comes down to the reason for Tavarez' turnaround. If he improved because he's less stressed starting then I'm not as sure he'll get his chances. If he improved because he improved then he could be good enough to close. As always, too many starters is barely enough.
As for Drew's salary, seems the pundits think add Drew to Matsuzaka before this idiot market and it's a wash. Factor in the market expansion and the Sox may have picked up the best positional bat and best starting pitcher for genuine market rates or better. Very nice.
Besides, I believe Theo may be starting to understand you largely need to develop your pen from within. The success of Papelbon will hopefully spur on more of the kids in the pen.

The numbers people were throwing around seemed to indicate they would have a little money left, even assuming a higher salary for Matsuzaka. I have no idea though. I guess I'll have to hope they're willing to go a little over, or alternatively a few of their arms actually pan out for a change.

Trade the YOUK. His value will never be higher: low base pay, big on-base man. All ideas on this blog are for trading untradable contracts or perceived useless players: Hinske.
To get value, you need to give value. Not all GMs wear sleep-masks when they trade.

Can't they just trade Hinske and Hansack for Putz, Clement, and Jones? Bavasi seems determined to rid his team of talent quickly.

Not all GMs wear sleep-masks when they trade.

Just trade with the ones that do

Now......we take a week off without anything happening please?

I don't mind things happening, just don't give me a month of anticipation before they actually happen.

The BoSox need to trade Manny for Otsuka.

Between Schilling, Lowell, Clement, Hinske, Tavarez, and Timlin, there's almost $40 million coming off the payroll next year. It could be $44 if this is Wake's last season. Plus the threshold moves up from $148 million in '07 to $155 million in '08.

There's this myth out there that the Red Sox are trying to set their payroll to come in just at/under the payroll threshold. It's entirely possible that they're taking the long view, seeing that so much payroll is coming off the rolls next year, and making the calculated decision to exceed the cap this year. They've hopefully set their long-term rotation and lineup core with these moves -- surely one year of paying some luxury tax isn't such a big concern?

Between Schilling, Lowell, Clement, Hinske, Tavarez, and Timlin, there's almost $40 million coming off the payroll next year. It could be $44 if this is Wake's last season. Plus the threshold moves up from $148 million in '07 to $155 million in '08.

That's true, and is also true for the Yankees (who lose among others Johnson, Abreu, Posada, possibly Pettitte) but the problem for both teams is that there isn't a lot of "dead money" in the group. The Yankees don't really have any, and the only one of the Sox is Clement. Other than that, all those guys are expected to make contributions to the 2007 versions of the teams--in the case of some, big, big contributions--that will have to replaced, possibly at equal or greater cost in the 2007 off-season market. It's not quite as simple as noting how much money is coming off the books.

closer for the red sox in 2007? bryce cox.

Well, Clement is truly dead money. Hinske may as well be. The plan with Schilling is to slot Lester into the rotation there. It's mainly a question at this point of finding a new 1B/3B to replace Lowell, and of course, once again, finding relief help to replace Tavarez and Timlin.

In general though, these sorts of "Look at all the payroll coming off next year - we can sign Andruw Jones, and Carlos Zambrano and still have $20M left over" calculations are generally misguided because of issues like these, and other payroll developments.

Where is there a handy MLB non-tender list, anyway?

Where is there a handy MLB non-tender list, anyway?

Baseball Digest Daily Blog

Thanks.

Wow, nothing there.

Trade the YOUK. His value will never be higher: low base pay, big on-base man.

The BoSox need to trade Manny for Otsuka.

If the Rangers can't sign Zito, how about a trade of Manny/Youk/Hansack for Teixeira/Otsuka? My guess is that most Red Sox fans would be against this, but I think it would be a good case of players having more value to the the team trading for them than to their current team.

The Red Sox would upgrade at 1B and replace Manny with some combination of Wily Mo and Hinske (is there any explanation for Wily Mo's huge reverse platoon split last year? the previous 2 years he was much better against lefties than righties). There would be some loss of offense, but the lineup would still be well above league-average and the defense would be slightly better than before. Plus, they fill the closer role and save $10 mil to put them below the luxury tax and in a better position to trade for an impact player during the season. The Manny sideshow would be gone, which I suppose could be viewed as a positive or a negative depending on your perspective.

The Rangers would put Manny at DH, where they had Nevin, Wilkerson, Botts, etc. in 2006. This would much more than offset the downgrade from Teixeira to Youkilis. A pitcher like Hansack who doesn't seem to figure into Boston's plans should sweeten the deal for the Rangers. If they have enough starting pitcher prospects, hopefully a couple will pan out, and Otsuka was rendered somewhat expendable with the signing of Gagne. The extra salary that they take on will be more palatable because they intended to spend that money on free agents anyway. Also, this would reunite Manny and Lofton, which may not have an effect on their performance but could make the Rangers a fun team to follow and bring them more attention/attendance.

Maybe Hansack should be replaced with a better prospect. I was looking at The Baseball Cube, which lists him as 24, though I now see that other sources say he's 28. Replace him with some other starter who doesn't figure into Boston's plans.

He's 28.

all those guys are expected to make contributions to the 2007 versions of the teams--in the case of some, big, big contributions--that will have to replaced, possibly at equal or greater cost in the 2007 off-season market. It's not quite as simple as noting how much money is coming off the books.

Yes, that's true -- let's look at these guys for 2008:

Schilling - Buchholz/Bowden are likely too far off, hope would be that Lester can fill one spot
Lowell - Youkilis moving to 3rd, they look for a impact FA 1B bat or hope that Lars Anderson develops
Clement - dead money
Hinske - not a critical role
Tavarez/Tavarez - hopefully to be replaced by mL relief (Cox, Masterson, etc.)


You're not going to get $40 million of relief, certainly, but you could argue there are replacements readily available such that the Red Sox could still target a FA pitcher and first baseman and come in below their 2007 figure. Standard caveats: we don't know whether Lester, Hansen, Cox, Masterson, Anderson, etc. will develop to fill these roles, or what kind of injuries we'll see in the interim. But my guess here is that they could fill those roles with less money, at least enough to potentially get back under the 2008 LT threshold of $155M.

To go back to your Yankees example, I guess what I'm saying is that I perceive the "replacement cost" for those guys coming off the Sox' payroll to be less than the replacement cost of the Yankees corresponding challenge.

Could Joel Pineiro be a decent stop-gap closer until Hansen is ready? He seems to do okay from pitches 1-30 and seems to fall off the table after that.

Joel Pineiro

If the Rangers can't sign Zito, how about a trade of Manny/Youk/Hansack for Teixeira/Otsuka?

I would do Manny, Lowell, and Hansack for Teixeira and Otsuka

Is Hansack any good?

The bullpen scares the crap out of me. Scatterbox thoughts:

-Timlin debuted around the time Seinfeld came on the air.
-Hansen's got command/control issues, and while that's not always a big problem for a short reliever, his K rates aren't very high either. Call me pessimistic about him.
-Tavarez is, well, exactly what he's always been, a league-average relief flake.
-Delcarmen I like. His indicators are all good to excellent, he was just hit-unlucky.
-Okajima's somewhat a question mark at this time, though I'm open minded about him.
-Dinardo's the same as ever.
-Pap's in rotation, but he's their best RP.
-Wake's relieved before, but do I want a knuckleballer in with a runner at third? (his WPs aren't exoribtant)
-Any chance Lester's going to be ready for the year and would be a decent reliever for one year?
-How about if Matt Clement---oh forget it....

Yuck.

-Any chance Lester's going to be ready for the year and would be a decent reliever for one year?

If we get Lester back, I'd rather see him start and push Papelbon back into the pen.

We've NEVER seen Lester in the pen. We KNOW Papelbon is lightout in the pen.

If the Rangers can't sign Zito, how about a trade of Manny/Youk/Hansack for Teixeira/Otsuka? My guess is that most Red Sox fans would be against this, but I think it would be a good case of players having more value to the the team trading for them than to their current team.

That's nowhere near enough to get Teixeira. Not even close. Maybe if the Sox pay all of Manny's salary and throw in Crisp or Ellsbury.

Phil Siebel for Brandon Donnelly was just announced.

Who's Phil Siebel?

We've NEVER seen Lester in the pen. We KNOW Papelbon is lightout in the pen.

This ia baseball-man talk.

You have got to be kidding me, great trade for the BoSox.

And where is this?

I liked Brendan Donnelly before the cheating pine tar thing. Also the rising ERA doesn't help.

This ia baseball-man talk.

Seriously, the last thing we should do is mess with what Jon Lester is used to doing. He needs to get some game innings, and he needs to go back to his previous routine. He's coming off chemo, he's struggling to make the big leagues, and you want him to convert him to a DIFFERENT ROLE?

Linky goodness: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/

SAnd my mistake, it's Seibel.

Why not just try Seibel out? Young. Good minor league record.
Donnelly's great, but's he's 35. I can see this being another Cla Meredith thing.

Isn't Brendan Donnelly an obvious 'roider?
They ain't gonna close ballgames with him, are they?
Hey he only made ~$1 mil last year.

It's on ESPN too.

Seibel looks like a guy who's bounced around, but absolutely PWN3D the minors last year. Donelly looks like he's falling apart. WHooppee

I can see this being another Cla Meredith thing.

The Meredith thing I'm STILL incensed about. He had GREAT minor league numbers, I had big hopes for him (funky delivery an all), and then Francona throws him out for a high-lev situation, gets pwn3de, and then we never see him again. Then he gets traded for Dougie's Goign Deep. And becomes light out.

What are the odds that Donnelly can give us 55 IP of 115 *ERA+ ball?

I'd be REALLY happy if we got that out of him.

To be fair, Cla walked the bases loaded (I think), then gave up cheapie, 303' HR.

Why not just try Seibel out? Young. Good minor league record.
Donnelly's great, but's he's 35. I can see this being another Cla Meredith thing.

Yeah, or not. This is a pretty reasonable trade for both sides it seems.

I remember Jeremy Gonzalez started that game.

I Heart Red Sox back-end starters.

Seibel's 28 years old. He was very good in the minors last year, but he missed most of the previous 2 seasons with serious arm problems. I'm not unhappy he's been traded for Donnelly.

Also, Seibel's a lefty; perhaps the feeling is that with Okajima on board there's no need for another lefty in the pen.

Pretty different from the Meredith situation IMHO.

YES -- WE GET BRANDON DONNELLY WE GET BRANDON DONNELLY WORLD SERIES HERE WE COME

Ok ok. It is different than Meredith. Let's go get him back...

You have got to be kidding me, great trade for the BoSox.

Yeah, maybe three years ago.

Yeah, maybe three years ago.

Well, yeah, Donnelly's numbers have been declining for a while now. Sadly enough his numbers from 2006 would have likely been the 2nd best number for Boston's pen.

Seibel may turn into a good pitcher for the Angels, or he may never get over the hump. He's got all of 3.7 IP in the majors and is no kid. I wish him well, and it's not a bad trade for the Angels since they seemed to be done with Donnelly anyway, but Seibel's no great loss for the Red Sox either.

He had a better 2nd half than 1st in '06, Shreddo.

Donnelly was great, now has a decent chance to be OK. Seiebel also has a decent chance to be OK. But, Seibel's chance is smaller, he'll do it for longer - Donnelly is more likely to put up a 4 ERA than a 6 ERA, while you can't really same the same for Phil. Siebel is what - the 4th lefty? Okaji, Lopez, Breslow... maybe Gabard? Ehh - replaceable part for some modicum of certainty. Fine all around.

He had a better 2nd half than 1st in '06, Shreddo.

He's still not that good. And he's a whiner. And considering he'd be no better than the Angels 5th best option out of the pen this year, maybe 6th, it's not really much of a loss.

Culling info from SoSH and a couple other places:

In August, September, and October, Donnelly pitched 22.2 IP and allowed 6 ER.

He had 3 bad outings where he gave up 12 runs in 1.1 innings, but seemed to be solid otherwise.

Crushed RHB last year, but has had quite a bit of variance against RHB and LHB throughout his career.

He's still not that good. And he's a whiner. And considering he'd be no better than the Angels 5th best option out of the pen this year, maybe 6th, it's not really much of a loss.

And that's fair, because the Angels' pen was much better than Boston's in 2006. Your 6th best guy is probably 3rd or 4th in our pen.

He's not much of a loss for the Angels, just like Seibel's not much of a loss for Boston.

And that's fair, because the Angels' pen was much better than Boston's in 2006. Your 6th best guy is probably 3rd or 4th in our pen.

Who are the first two or three?

He's not much of a loss for the Angels, just like Seibel's not much of a loss for Boston.

You probably would have been better off putting the $1.5MM or so that the Sox will have to pay him toward someone more useful.

Timlin's probably #1 right now, which as a pretty big indictment of the pen as it is. I'd guess that for 2007, Delcarmen's likely #2.

But this is splitting hairs. Donnelly had more value to the Sox than he did to the Angels, because the Angels had better options, particularly after their signing of Speier.

Shredder, I'd love to find a useful guy out there for 1.5 million. It's probably a helluva lot easier said than done.

You've made your disdain for him quite clear. ;)

You probably would have been better off putting the $1.5MM or so that the Sox will have to pay him toward someone more useful.

Like who? $1.5M buys about 1/2 of a marginal win in this market.

You've made your disdain for him quite clear. ;)

It's not that I have disdain for him. I just don't think he's that good. I think he's just as likely to cost you guys a lot of games next year as is he to help you win any. But they'll be forgettable, because he'll come in during a game in which you're trailing by a couple of runs, and give up about four or five more, basically ruining any hopes for a comeback. Since it's a game you would have figured to lose anyway, it won't sting, but those add up over a season.

If that is what he does, he'll be gone as quick as Embree or Seanez.

So where would that $1.5M have been better spent?

Timlin's probably #1 right now, which as a pretty big indictment of the pen as it is. I'd guess that for 2007, Delcarmen's likely #2.

It's arguable that Donnelly is #1 out of the pen right now. I don't think he's significantly better than Timlin or Delcarmen, but I'm not sure he's any worse. That is, based on my look at his stats and highly limited knowledge of Donnelly, of course.

Good lord, I'll take Donnelley -- he has a career ERA+ of 151. Tavarez is 103 and Seanez 101 -- and both must have been below 110 BEFORE 2006. Old yes, but a totally different level of quality -- Donnelley's never had a year below 111. Even Timlin's only 128. IF fit, very useful indeed, and well worth $1.5mm to find out.

I don't see much point to this move. Donnelly should be better than Seibel, but not enough so to make up for the salary/service time differences. He seems to me a lot like Riske, who we traded for someone quite like Seibel.

This wouldn't be as bad of a move if we had an otherwise set pen and needed a solid middle reliever. But what we're lacking now is a closer and we're no closer to filling that hole, IMHO. I sure hope this is a scouting move based on some greatness they see in Donnelly. I would rather have gotten Gregg.

I would rather have gotten Gregg.

Was there any indication that Gregg was available for Seibel?

No, but he was also traded for a mL reliever. I would guess that it wouldn't have taken a whole lot more than Seibel. Whatever it costs, though, I like Gregg's future a quite a bit better than Donnelly's.

(Rex Hudler talking during Seibel's first game)

"He's a really promising and REALLY young guy! He also has a world series ring from the Red Sox so he must have good intangibles. Losing the Donnellymeister really hurts. I still can't believe they let Ersty go... Anyways I'm really excited to see what kind of (Eric Chavez hits HR off Siebel which is ignored by Hudler who keeps blabbing) stuff he has. Stoneman must have had a good reason to trade such an amazing reliever as Donnelly (Piazza takes a curve to the hip) so this will be a guy we need to keep an eye on for the next few years.

SOSH says Boston signed JC Romero. So much for the 'too many lefties' theory. Also, blech.

JC Romero??!! Crap.

So, closer by committee this year? Or just a lousy closer?

little of both

shredder, you guys are spoiled. anaheim has decent relievers come out of its ears and here in boston we have to poay 24 mil over 3 years for a guy that only gives us 1 good year ... or make our top pitching prospect into a reliever. donnelly may not be anything special, but he's better than anybody we have right now.

we have to poay 24 mil over 3 years for a guy that only gives us 1 good year

And I would do it again.

And I would do it again.

me too. just sayin'.

I wouldn't do it again unless i figured out what poay means.

Now the Herald and Will Caroll are reporting that Drew failed his physical...

So, according to some people around here, that means he passed it.

I hope that's right this time around, not only for the obvious reasons, but also because I'm really hoping Drew shows up all the obnoxious "he shows no passion, therefore he is not good" ranters on EEI and elsewhere. I like Drew largely because of the people who don't like him.

On a more heartwarming subject: Matsuzaka... most exciting Red Sox acquisition since Pedro? Or only since Manny?

Since Bellhorn, anyway.

What's the return policy for Drew?