BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Offseason Minor League Thread

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Sunday, November 18, 2007

Offseason Minor League Thread

Philly has done a very nice review of the Theo-Era Red Sox first three years of drafting over at SOSH:

I put the Sox second partly because they’ve already banked three good seasons and have very good depth. If the Sox drop off from this lofty ranking it will be because their elite talent doesn’t quite match some other teams. Papelbon is great in his role, but it’s not unreasonable to question whether a 60 IP/year pitcher can be a “real” star. Buchholz has the requisite talent to be a star, but banking on 1200 IP over the next six years is a risky proposition. Where the Sox excel is in the depth of prospects brought into the system over these three years. There are a lot of organizations that struggle to come up with three good prospects and the Sox have a couple potential Top 100 types stacked up in the 5th and 6th spots.

A fun and interesting read during the hot stove season.

Darren Posted: November 18, 2007 at 10:16 PM | 10 comment(s)
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1. PJ Martinez Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:28 AM (#2619786)

Great job by philly.

Edit: And it's not at all fanboy-ish, to his credit (not that I expect that from him), even though the Sox end up at #2 in his evaluation. (He doesn't rank Papelbon or Pedroia nearly as high as some would, I suspect.)

2. JB H Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:04 AM (#2619876)

philly, have you ever thought about seeing what types of players over/under perform in the draft?

i'm not really a scout hater, but i'd be shocked if they weighed all the different attributes a player has even close to correctly.

i imagine if someone went through the draft and categorized players into one of like ten broad stereotypes (big hs bat without much athleticism, great hs athlete without a ton of baseball skills, hs flamethrower, hs finesse pitcher etc) that you'd see some types of players strongly overperform relative to their draft position, and some types of players strongly underperform

i know baseball america sometimes runs those scouting reports that list all the different attributes for a player on a scale to 80. if the sox had a big database of those they could do some great work

3. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 19, 2007 at 01:03 PM (#2620012)

Chiang was 4/10 in the World Cup of Baseball.

Of course, the Taiwanese version of veteran prowess Julio Cheng played over him, and hit .150 for the entire tourney.

Great writeup Philly, but I will quarrel in that I think Travis Buck should be rated higher. He's got 300+ above average MLB Ab's already.

4. philly Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:48 PM (#2620187)

philly, have you ever thought about seeing what types of players over/under perform in the draft?

Not exactly what you're asking, but one of the major categories of late round sleepers is "college infielders" who usually end up at 2B or 3B. And I guess were actually SS in college.

They're guys who tend to go be good all around players, but don't have the range to play MLB SS and don't have the traiditonal pop of a 3B or quickness of a 2B.

There are two in that report - Ian Kinsler from the 17th rd and Mark Reynolds from the 16th rd. Going back further you'll find guys like Bill Mueller, Jeff Cirillo and Scott Brosius who were taken after the 10th rd.

Kevin Youkilis as an 8th rd college sign for 12k is similar. Scouts seem to have a hard time projecting players to be solid above average 2B/3B.

5. Darren Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:28 PM (#2620714)

Knowing Philly's anti-fanboy tendencies, you know that the Sox must have earned that #2 spot. I do think, though, that Philly's right when he says you could arguably swap around the top bunch.

6. philly Posted: November 19, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2620748)

That was the first of a handful of mostly minors related projects that I've been farting around with for a couple of months. I decided to sit back and enjoy the pennant race and playoffs and not bother finishing them. With the year now done, I'm trying to whittle down my "to do" folder.

Here's the next one detailing the Sox switch frm C position players to HS position players in the draft with what to me was an unusual emphasis on HS 1B.

link

7. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: November 20, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2621427)

Wok,

Do you know anything about Chia-Chu Chen? He was signed in September, which is probably why I missed him until now. His write up isn't very encouraging (no power, small frame).

Are there any other Asian catcher prospects?

8. philly Posted: November 24, 2007 at 09:55 AM (#2624116)

Just when your excitement about the 1B post was dying down, here's another comparing the experience of the Sox amatuer scouts to 9 other organizations.

link

9. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 24, 2007 at 10:01 AM (#2624119)

I couldn't find anything on Chen. There was news about his signing in September, but I couldn't find any scouting reports on him.

His write up isn't very encouraging (no power, small frame).

I just read that same writeup. A small frame is not a big deal, he'll get into weight training and build some muscle. He's a good defender at C.

10. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 27, 2007 at 11:51 AM (#2626068)

Callis on Bryce Cox in BA.

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Offseason Minor League Thread

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