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Sunday, July 15, 2007

Player Pairs Part 1: Youks and Pedroia

I asked in the game chatter today for topics of discussion and MCOA suggested a few that I thought were pretty good. They all seemed to involve pairs of players, so I decided to do a brief series of threads about pairs of players who are in similar situations. The first one is about Pedroia and Youkilis.

Both of these guys are righthanded hitters with patient approaches and limited power at the plate, both have achieved new levels of production this year, and both are now falling back to Earth a bit. Have both of these guys been playing over their heads? Are their preseason ZIPS a better indicator of their future than what they’ve done in 07?

My guess is that both of their projections were adversely affected by 06 injuries that we should not assume will repeat themselves.  However, I don’t think Youkilis is really a 330/440/520 guy or that Pedroia is a 320/400/470 guy.  My guess is that Pedroia will settle in around 300/380/440 and Youk will be around 300/390/450. However, this does not take into account their CFBPS stats. 

Darren Posted: July 15, 2007 at 05:25 PM | 31 comment(s)
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   1. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 15, 2007 at 10:47 PM (#2442318)
Buster Olney on ESPN Radio said that the Red Sox were among a handful of teams looking to acquire Mark Loretta. How is this comment possible?
   2. Darren Posted: July 15, 2007 at 10:48 PM (#2442320)
It's possible because Olney is a terrible reporter is wrong far more often than he is right.
   3. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 16, 2007 at 09:55 AM (#2442487)
I think the line for Pedroia looks VERY VERY good, but Youkilis should have a .400/.480 line in him.

WHY IS PEDROIA SO SLOW OMFG
   4. plim Posted: July 16, 2007 at 09:56 AM (#2442488)
maybe Olney thinks the sox should shift pedroia to ss and install loretta at 2b? that's the only thing i could think of...
   5. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 16, 2007 at 09:58 AM (#2442489)
Pedroia's arm and lack of speed won't play at SS. I'd much rather go digging for a LH platoon partner for Lugo.
   6. John DiFool2 Posted: July 16, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2442635)
Such a player exists in the Red Sox system, first name of Jed...
   7. Carl Yastrzemski, A Well-Paid Slav (GGC) Posted: July 16, 2007 at 01:37 PM (#2442642)
WHY IS PEDROIA SO SLOW OMFG


I was wondering about this. I see him getting pinch run for more than anyone else on the team it seems.
   8. The District Attorney Posted: July 16, 2007 at 01:46 PM (#2442650)
tiny little legs
   9. Josh Posted: July 16, 2007 at 01:49 PM (#2442653)
Jed Hoyer doesn't have the arm for SS.
   10. Royce Rings Heath's Bell Posted: July 16, 2007 at 03:36 PM (#2442743)
I think he means Lowrie.
   11. Royce Rings Heath's Bell Posted: July 16, 2007 at 03:50 PM (#2442757)
But I'm sure Hoyer is working hard at the search for a new SS.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 16, 2007 at 11:17 PM (#2443387)
-Nice thread choice, Petunia looked good tonight. I think there was a poster on SoSH who had graphed his season, and found that Pedroia's been hitting ~400/450 for the last two months, pretty consistently. He looks like a high-BABIP hitter to me, and I think he's going to add a few more homers as he gets older.

-On Lowrie, I don't understand the push. First, there are many reports that his glove is not good enough for SS in the majors. How can we criticize the Sox for not calling him up when we don't have any particularly good reason to believe he'd be able to paly the position. Second, by several accounts, Lowrie struggled last year when, after returning from an injury, he got frustrated with his lack of production and started pressing. So we've got a guy who didn't respond particularly well to his first taste of adversity, and who probably isn't a shortstop. Lowrie seems like the most likely Sox prospect to be traded, if they find someone who likes his glove. I like him well enough, but thanks to Pedroia, he's probably blocked.
   13. Darren Posted: July 16, 2007 at 11:30 PM (#2443409)
Really glad to see Pedroia pulling the ball tonight. I think he's been going the opposite way too much lately. On Youks, I want him back in the 2 spot and Drew back #5. I think Drew is too passive in the leadoff role (see his K looking at 2 weak fastballs tonight), and we need him to be looking for his power. Youks is just the opposite--he's at his best when doing his OBP thing.

I agree with you on Lowrie that there is no rush to promote him. However (you knew that was coming), I haven't seen several reports that his SS defense is weak. It seems like most of the reports I've seen say, "so, can he stick at SS?" As far as his response to adversity last year, he did finish the year on a tear, so he seemed to be able to overcome his struggles there, and then did the same thing after a tough April in 07. I don't have any desire to see him in the Majors this year, but I'm glad the Sox have him.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 16, 2007 at 11:48 PM (#2443462)
I'm glad we got Lowrie, too, and I like him, too. So this is a minor dispute.

BA 2007: "He doesn't have the hands and range to stay [at shortstop]"

I thought I had a link to Sickels and to a guy on SoSH, but couldn't find (a) and (b) would hardly impress anyone. So there's been one report, probably a condensation of several other reports of unknown exact content, that he won't stick.
   15. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 17, 2007 at 12:28 AM (#2443520)
BA 2007: "He doesn't have the hands and range to stay [at shortstop]"

If his bat plays at SS, keep him there, and keep a defensive substitution guy around. Like Pokey for Bellhorn
   16. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: July 17, 2007 at 05:24 AM (#2443581)
Bellhorn was a fine defender, he didn't need a ####### defensive sub, dammit.
   17. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 17, 2007 at 06:00 AM (#2443585)
Pokey is better
   18. RB in NYC (Now with Jet Lag!) Posted: July 17, 2007 at 07:15 AM (#2443591)
If his bat plays at SS, keep him there, and keep a defensive substitution guy around. Like Pokey for Bellhorn
That's a fine general statement, but it's kind of silly. If your bat doesn't play at SS (the weakest offensive position in the league) you really aren't good enough to be a regular unless it's Adam Everett or somebody. There's obviously a point--I might call it the "Jeter Line"--where one's adroitness with the bat overwhelms their ineptitude in the field but the Red Sox don't strike me as a team with the desire or opportunity to goof around with Lowrie trying to find if he's above or below said Jeter Line.
   19. PJ Martinez Posted: July 17, 2007 at 10:53 AM (#2443703)
"I think Drew is too passive in the leadoff role (see his K looking at 2 weak fastballs tonight), and we need him to be looking for his power."

But does his approach differ when he's in the 5-hole? My sense-- albeit based on very little-- is that his approach is pretty much the same wherever he hits, which is why he's better suited for leadoff.

The Sox basically have three top of the order hitters right now-- in fact, Drew/Pedroia/Youkilis/Ortiz/Ramirez/Lowell/Varitek/Lugo/Crisp might make some sense... but won't happen, of course.
   20. TakeandRake Posted: July 17, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2444191)
"Such a player exists in the Red Sox system, first name of Jed..."

Good point.
   21. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: July 18, 2007 at 12:39 AM (#2444744)
So...any thoughts on the .500 ball for the last 6-7 weeks? I confess I am too lazy/too out of it to analyze it for myself.

A little regression after the .700 ball for 2 months? Big lead getting them down?
   22. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 18, 2007 at 02:35 AM (#2444795)
Where is the "OMFG LET'S PANIC" Thread?
   23. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: July 18, 2007 at 05:44 AM (#2444822)
Where is the "OMFG LET'S PANIC" Thread?


Wait a week mate
   24. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 18, 2007 at 06:37 AM (#2444830)
Wait a week mate

It's never too soon to panic
   25. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 18, 2007 at 09:24 AM (#2444885)
I don't go into chatter, but has there been any discussion of Manny's defense over the past two weeks? There have been at least a handful of balls that have landed short of the wall or on the wall below about 6 feet. His playing shallow is killing the pitchers. Who cares if he gives up a few singles as long as he gets those hits that fall in for doubles.
   26. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 18, 2007 at 09:40 AM (#2444895)
Yeah, shallow Manny is annoying the #### out of us.
   27. Darren Posted: July 20, 2007 at 12:43 AM (#2447789)
Pedroia seems to have pulled out of it (despite the umpires' hatred of him), but Youks is lost right now.
   28. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 20, 2007 at 12:50 AM (#2447803)
Because he's hitting in the 5th spot. Youkilis is not a "run-producer", he's a plate-setter. Get it right Tito.

Hell, I'd put Lugo in the 5th spot.
   29. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: July 20, 2007 at 01:10 AM (#2447833)
It's never too soon to panic


I'm panicking now.

I have not been this annoyed with baseball since 2004 when they played .500 ball like it was going out of style.
   30. Darren Posted: July 20, 2007 at 08:01 AM (#2447951)
.500 ball? Wow, that would be a dream come true at this point.
   31. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: July 20, 2007 at 05:07 PM (#2448565)
Pedroia now leads the team in batting average, which is fun.
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