Preview Thread III: The Defense

Because the bullpen is in a state of flux, I want to do a thread about it. But because the bullpen is in a state of flux, it’s probably best to put it off till IV or V.

And so let’s ponder the defense. Using defensive efficiency as a measure, last year’s team was not good: .683, 27th out of 30 teams. Most of last year’s defense is back, so will it be more of the same?

The personnel changes are at rf (Drew for Nixon), ss (Lugo for Gonzalez), and 2b (Pedroia for Loretta). We may also see some playing time redistributed—Crisp in cf and Varitek at c probably will play more, and healthier, in 2007 than in 2006.

Pulling some metrics out of a hat, let’s consider THT’s defensive win shares and zone ratings for 2006:

Nixon 2.6 (114 games), .691
Drew 3.1 (145 games), .665

Gonzalez 5.9 (111 games), .855
Lugo 4.1 (122 games), .779 (ss only)

Loretta 6.6 (155 games), .805
Pedroia 1.6 (31 games), .806 (2b only)

Lots of caveats apply to these numbers, of course. To the extent we can draw inferences from them, what they suggest is that our defense is going to be even worse in 2007 than in 2006: Pedroia is a match for Loretta, but Drew and Lugo are both downgrades from Nixon and A-Gon—Drew a small step, Lugo a medium one.

The rf numbers are a bit of a surprise for me, because I’ve been under the impression that Drew would be an upgrade over Trot. The other numbers don’t surprise me too much. Bottom line, it seems to me: the defense wasn’t good in 2006 and isn’t likely to be better in 2007. But we can always hope.