This is also from the column:
There are side factors that are difficult to judge. There is no love lost between the Florida and Boston ownerships, and now that St. John's reliever Craig Hansen has signed with the Red Sox -- after turning down a $2.6 million offer from the Marlins on draft day that would have allowed Hansen to go straight to the big leagues, prompting the Marlins to ask Bud Selig to investigate -- those feelings might be heightened. The Fish cannot sign Burnett away from free agency, and the fireballing right-hander has made it clear that he probably wouldn't sign an extension with the White Sox but would with the Red Sox if the money is right.

Both interesting. I like that the Marlins want an investigation into whether the Red Sox interfered with their tampering.

I forgot to mention, an Anibal/Arroyo deal would kill me.

Arroyo's been very frustrating lately, and I guess the Sox must be convinced this is his true talent. Or worse.

I don't really get it. Burnett's pretty good, and he'd be a sweet upgrade over Miller, but he's not a lot better than Arroyo. He's also not longterm - I can't imagine the team that refused to give Pedro 4 years giving that length of a deal to AJ Burnett's actual trick shoulder.

On Petagine, that can be read in a couple ways. "Going to be good" doesn't really imply that he's good enough right now to take Millar's spot.

If Theo buries Petagine in AAA, we're going to have to take away his secret saberist club decoder ring. I mean, Jim Bowden and Steve Phillips ignoring MLEs, ok, but Theo Epstein?

Both interesting. I like that the Marlins want an investigation into whether the Red Sox interfered with their tampering.

I read it as the Marlins trying to make a pre-draft deal with Hansen, then upon being rejected they decided not to draft him. As such it wouldn't have been tampering by the Marlins.

Of course, with the Sox deal being for more money than the Marlins offered, it doesn't seem like an investigation is warranted. Hey, if the Fish are still bummed about the Millar waivers fiasco from a couple of years ago, they can have him back.

I read it as the Marlins trying to make a pre-draft deal with Hansen, then upon being rejected they decided not to draft him. As such it wouldn't have been tampering by the Marlins.

Pre-draft deals are technically illegal. Once a team talks about money with a draft eligible player they have contaminated the draft pool.

Everybody does it, but there are rules against it.

On Petagine, that can be read in a couple ways. "Going to be good" doesn't really imply that he's good enough right now to take Millar's spot.

I am good enough right now to take Millar's spot.

Rich Garces is good enough right now to take Millar's spot.

Mo Vaughn's left hamstring is good enough right now to take Millar's spot.

Hazel Mae is... annoying.

My friend said that he heard Theo before the game saying something like “That Petagine is going to be good” and “Youkilis will be back up soon.”

Are you talking about the radio broadcast? If so, Castiglione brought up Petagine and Youks because they both hit well in the previous PawSox game. Theo said good things about both, but I didn't hear any great enthusiasm on his part.

I thought the theory put forth by some primates here (Dan the Oracle Man) is that certain people in the Boston front office just don't like Petagine, and won't give him a chance unless Millar, Olerud and Shawn Wooten get eaten up by David Wells one day.

I don't think Boras has ever done a predraft deal, with any team. Maybe if the Marlins had overpaid (ie, given Hansen $4 to $5m), he might have signed. But Boras probably had a pretty good idea that BOS would take Hansen, thus his decision to reject FLA.

Anyhow, if the Marlins really wanted Hansen, they should have just taken him and played hardball with him. They had plenty of high picks this year. Wasting one of them on Hansen wouldn't have killed them. I wonder if AZ would've taken him if he were available at 31?

I thought the theory put forth by some primates here (Dan the Oracle Man) is that certain people in the Boston front office just don't like Petagine, and won't give him a chance unless Millar, Olerud and Shawn Wooten get eaten up by David Wells one day.

If they don't like him, why keep him at all?

If Millar isn't traded, keeping Petagine makes little sense.

Hazel Mae is... annoying.

Not with the sound off.

I agree with Joe.

I don't think Boras has ever done a predraft deal, with any team.

Pawelak (sp?) signed in the middle of the 3rd rd this year about 45 minutes after he was picked.

That pretty much has to have been a pre-draft deal.

Probably, but the word from BA was that Pawelek told Boras to get the deal done asap. So in the end it wasn't Boras's decision as much as Pawelek's.

From the Rob Neyer chat on ESPN

sayles (new york, ny): i read that one red sox official thinks burnett could be one of the top 5 pitchers in the league, but isnt that ridiculous considering he would be going to the more patient AL, his control has never been great, and he has never pitched a lot of innings in a season?

SportsNation Rob Neyer: (11:18 AM ET ) I like Burnett, the same way I liked Jeff Weaver. He's got a solid strikeout rate and his control's fine, but he's in a pitcher's ballpark in a pitcher's league, and if you put him in a Red Sox uniform his ERA's going to jump at least half a point.



Drew (Philly): Hi Rob - I keep hearing that the Phillies are not going to trade Wagner and I don't like it. He is NOT going to sign an extension with them and he could bring back a ton of talent back that could still help them contend this year and in the future. How about to the Red Sox for Arroyo, Youklis and minor league catcher Shoppach?

SportsNation Rob Neyer: (11:21 AM ET ) If the Phillies could really get all three of those guys for Wagner, then yes of course it would be idiotic if they didn't. Trading Wagner's not giving up if, in return, they get other players who can help them right now.


[Drew is smoking some good stuff in Philly]

Hazel Mae is... annoying.

Since I only get those annoying ads and the in-game updates from her I can't tell whether I find her attractive or not, leaving aside her insightfulness.

According to SI's Tom Verducci, Manny Ramirez wants to be traded from the Boston Red Sox. Again.

Ramirez reportedly told team officials he is unhappy in Boston, particularly with his lack of privacy off the field. This would be the third time in four years that Ramirez has requested a trade. The report also states the Red Sox have no intention of moving him. This most likely is just another of one Manny's many mood swings. Jul. 26 - 1:22 pm et
Source: CNNSI.com


Oh boy. Manny Ramirez for Shawn Green and Russ Ortiz?

Where would Manny go that his privacy wouldn't be impaired? KC?
DB

I wonder if Manny was bothered by Millar's desire to weigh him.

Since I only get those annoying ads and the in-game updates from her I can't tell whether I find her attractive or not, leaving aside her insightfulness.

A poster on another board described Hazel Mae as like Seinfeld's girlfriend that could look hot or terrible depending on the light. She has been much more consistently hot of late.

I've noticed that Manny has looked really depressed this year. He even looks a little depressed at the plate. And all of that wandering into the Green Monster.

He should be depressed. He's stopped crushing lefties.

Manny Ramirez for Mike Cameron. That could be a basis of a deal with the other details being worked out. Manny's having a fine year and one reason his numbers are a little down is because he's got a lower BABIP than normal.

Minaya, please make this happen.

Manny Ramirez for Mike Cameron. That could be a basis of a deal with the other details being worked out. Manny's having a fine year and one reason his numbers are a little down is because he's got a lower BABIP than normal.

Minaya, please make this happen.

Theo, please make this happen.

Manny Ramirez is hitting .196/.328/.412 against lefties but he has a .179 BABIP against them. If you give him a .298 BABIP, his line improves to .294/.406/.510 even if those hits are all singles.

Manny Ramirez for Mike Cameron.

I'd like to see this happen, but if it could have, it probably would have in the offseason. Remember, Gammo said that Theo and Co thought they were close to a deal with Minaya (Manny + cash for lots of prospects) but Minaya suddenly decided he wanted a ton more money.

Ramirez reportedly told team officials he is unhappy in Boston, particularly with his lack of privacy off the field. This would be the third time in four years that Ramirez has requested a trade.

I don't believe any of that. He looks as happy as ever. I think it's a practical joke on Verducci.

According to the chatter on SOSH, FSNE is saying that the Sox have offered Arroyo+Shoppach for Wagner, but haven't heard back yet. These guys seem to not like Arroyo too much.

Who the hell is the fifth starter if Arroyo is traded and we don't get one in return?

Schilling probably moves to the rotation. I think the whole thing leaves them a reliever and a starter short. I have little confidence in Wade Miller.

How does it leave them a reliever short? They're adding Wagner.

bradford can't get lefties out. meyers can't get righties out. gonzalez is Gonzalez. that leaves Timlin and Wagner. while I think Delcarmen has tons of promise, is he ready for crunch time innings in a pennant race? i don't know. i hope so.
it's possible I'm asking for too much, or I'm selling Delcarmen short. with a rotation that features Wade Miller, who I just don't trust, I would love a lights out bullpen. i don't know; maybe I'm wrong.

I would love a lights out bullpen.

I'd settle for a league-average bullpen.

According to the chatter on SOSH, FSNE is saying that the Sox have offered Arroyo+Shoppach for Wagner

Friday's Boston Herald says:

The problem is that the Phillies have not wanted to negotiate, primarily because they still believe, somewhat justifiably, they have a shot at the NL wild card.... Third baseman Kevin Youkilis, catching prospect Kelly Shoppach and starter Bronson Arroyo are three names being heard as an appealing package. Wagner, by the way, is traveling with his family, extra clothes and extra suitcases on the Phillies' current road trip.

Arroyo, Shoppach, AND Youkilis?!?!?! It's Ed ####### Wade, Theo? You're not going to let him rape you in a trade, are you? ARE YOU?!?!?!?

Yeah, give me a break. Wagner isn't even worth his damn contract. Arroyo+ for him is a steal for the Phils, strictly in terms of value.

I wouldn't get too worked up about these rumors. I'm pretty confident they wouldn't give up those 3. However, that Arroyo is up in all of these discussions is a bit odd...they know something we don't?

However, that Arroyo is up in all of these discussions is a bit odd...they know something we don't?

You mean like: Arroyo is striking out fewer than 5 batters per 9IP, rather than over 7/9IP like last year? Or, that he's giving up more home runs this year than last? Or, his breaking ball has a habit of disappearing on him and he's ineffective without it? Or, that he's had one good season at the major league level at age 27?

I don't mean to rag on Bronson too much - for a waiver wire pick-up, he has been exceptionally good - but he's not the second coming of Clemens. He is a good bargain, though, which makes him very attractive to other teams. That said, I don't see the wisdom in trading him for a couple of months of Wagner or Burnett.

What's my point, you ask? Beats the #### out of me.

As aco says, it's not too hard to come up with a narrative that makes trading Arroyo a palatable option. I don't exactly see why I need to trust that narrative over the boring one - that everything a player has done is weighted fairly and most "trends" and disjunctions are random variation - but maybe the Red Sox disagree.

I got no idea what the Red Sox will do this deadline season.

Most of the rumored trades seem to be shake-up trades, which improve the team by putting pressure on the players rather than notably increasing talent. What bothers me is that calling up Roberto Petagine would serve both purposes, and yet it doesn't happen.

Freedom update: 290/405/525

Freedom update: 290/405/525

That MLE OPS of .930 would make him the best hitting 1B in the AL (Sexon's at .928).

He is a good bargain, though, which makes him very attractive to other teams.

The other thing to note is that he's a time sensitive bargain. As he accrues service time he becomes less and less of a bargain.

Last year he made 333k and produced 4.7 WARP.

This year he makes 1.85M and is on pace to produce ~4.0 WARP. And WARP doesn't care about declining peripherals so the gap is probably a bit bigger.

Next year his salary might be in the 3.5-4M range and he'll probably produce something like a 4.5 WARP.

Using VORP the production numbers would be 24.7 in 04, ~23 in 05.

A 20-25 VORP SP at 333k is a great value, at 1.85M he's a good value at 3.5M he's what... solid or decent value?

You can make an argument that this is the optimal time to trade Arroyo. Sox have gotten the major portion of his bargain years and they get to put him on the market with a very low salary.

At 3.5M I would think Arroyo starts to look much less attractive to most teams.

Just curious:

A few Sox fans have stated that Cruz Jr. would be a decent player to acquire for the stretch run, now that Manny is moody again and Nixon is hurt. Which prospect do Sox fans here would be OK to give up for Cruz?

After reading MGL's most recent postings, I'd offer Millar and a small bucket of rotting shellfish.

Cruz is toast.

Which prospect do Sox fans here would be OK to give up for Cruz?

Uhhh... George Lombard?

Well, a couple of things... Cruz won't play CF for the Sox, and his defense will be a lot better in the corners. And he's bound to hit better than .213, not to mention that he still walks at a decent clip. I guess Gabe Kapler will be a lot better than though, and he's at least going to keep the Jewish girls at BU happy.

Lombard... I should've known not to ask...

Abe Alvarez? Someone in the #7-12 range and even then Sox would probably want an interesting A baller as a flier.

Maybe that Drew guy.

Well, AZ just "fired" Joe Jr. so I doubt BOS can get Drew. Not to mention that Drew cannot be traded yet.

Good points on Arroyo. I still don't see why we have to deal Sanchez with him, or youks, or...

On the Petagine Freedom Trail: Is it possible that Theo is working to deal Millar, and he can't exactly bench him if he's doing that? If we don't deal Millar, Petagine will come up? Is Theo using all his cunning? Or in suggesting that, have I took made the long journey from Fan Boy and returned a Fan Man?

Tito may be the reason Petagine hasn't been called up. Here's a question and answer from an Edes chat on boston.com today:


MannyKnowsBest: Q: Why wont the sox call up Roberto Petagine?? He CANNOT be any worse than Olerud or Millar. He's earned a callup

Gordon_Edes: Good question.

Gordon_Edes: Petagine is leading the IL in hitting, and with Trot going down, you would think the Sox would at least consider calling up Petagine as another left-handed bat ...
Gordon_Edes: Francona wasn't terribly impressed with him during the spring, but Petagine was hurt at the time. I know there is some sentiment in the organization for giving him a shot, but as of this moment, there are no indications that the Sx are going in that direction.

I agree with you, Joel, on the Petagine situation. They're likely going to see what they can get for Millar in trade, but - let's face it - only the most desperate teams will be looking to pick up Millar. And those teams won't know they're desperate until their other options fail - and they won't know that until Sunday-ish.

I'd be surprised if Millar is still with the team come Monday. Same goes for Mueller, to a lesser extent.

Say, isn't today the last day the Sox have to find a taker for Embree? I'm guessing nobody thinks he's worth giving up a prospect for him, given that nobody has done so yet. Someone will likely sign him to a minor-league deal in the next week or so.

I keep asking myself why Millar keeps playing, why Youks is being jerked around in the midst of his absolute brutalizing of the poor AAA pitchers and why Petagine continues to languish in Pawtucket.

This may sound crazy but bear with me.

Theo is sandbagging the Yankees. He's waiting to pull the trigger on all these moves at a point too close to the trade deadline for the Yankees to countermove on them. He doesn't have to worry about the trade deadline himself because all the moves he has to make can be done internally, without the consent of another ballclub.

2 mintes before the deadline, Millar will be DFA'ed, Petagine and Youks will be brought up and Olerud will be packaged in a trade to make room for him.



Then,

What? Then what?

LOl. A superfluous thought eliminated, Larry.

kevin just took off for st barts with jessica alba. again.

Seriously, is anybody up for a Levski-Kevin smack talk throwdown thread? After which, we can vote, declare a winner, they can tap hands, and say that the other was a warrior and while they don't like the other, they respect them.

kevin just took off for st barts with jessica alba. again.

i think that was sam ryan.

Here's what I think will happen:

Manny for Cameron

Millar + Muller for Mays & Romero

Petagrine & Youkilis called called up

Schilling into rotation

Arroyo + Shoppach for Wagner + B prospect

Embree signs with Yankees

...of course, I may not nail everything the way Gammons does, but these are good guesses. I do think Boston is looking to slash payroll + go young for 2006. The advantage they have in doing so is (a) they won the WS, (b) they have an educated fan base, who can withstand a lot of shuffling if given the right explanation for said shuffling (See "In Theo We Trust"), and (c) they can count on sellouts for the next two years at least.

A good-great Red Sox team for $90 million instead of $120 million means--in theory at least--that every year (again, hypothetically) they COULD add $10-$20 million in payroll if they wanted to at the trade deadline.

This is where their flexibility could cripple the rest of the division: if, every year, the Red Sox spent $90 million on payroll, but could--comfortably--spend up to $120 million if the need arises, that gives them $30 million each yesr to play with, to pick up FA to-be's, etc.

The Yankees don't have this flexibility because of their multiple long-term contracts to almost every single man on the 25-man roster, but the Red Sox have a little bit.

I'm going to be very interested to see what happens in the next few days.

Actually, I like kevin. He's a homer for BOS's prospects, I'm a homer for AZ's prospects. I respect homerism. We disagree on women, as he prefers only those who've had Jeter's hands and other parts all over them, but aside from that, we're cool...

Art Martone has reported on SOSH that Wade Miller is going to miss tonights start. Arroyo and Wells will pitch the next two days with no starter named for Sunday, but Papelbon is a possibility.

A poster on another board described Hazel Mae as like Seinfeld's girlfriend that could look hot or terrible depending on the light. She has been much more consistently hot of late.

Two Face from the Festivus episode.